Chaos Theory: The play that effectively ended the Bill's season

[y2zipper]

44 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

We have definitely been hurt by the fact our receivers were all hurt in the playoffs. Every single one of our 5 main receivers has been on the injury report for some of the post season. Brown hasn't been healthy all year IMO, Beas was playing on a broken leg, Davis was playing hurt since the 1st quarter of the Ravens game and McKenzie and Diggs have both been nicked up too. 

 

I think the point @SCBills makes above is worth thinking about in terms of roster construction next year. The Bills carried 4 tight ends and 6 receivers this season. If they are going to run so much 4 and 5 wide stuff I'd expect them to redress that balance to 3 and 7 next year - whether that is Hodgins on the roster or maybe trying to work something longer term out with Stills or whatever. 

 

I think too many injuries at the same position group is hard to overcome no matter what. We've seen that a lot this year with covid. There aren't replacements for Buffalo's top four receivers sitting out on the street. 

 

This year it ended up being a compound problem because there wasn't another aspect of offense to fall back on. if anything they did a pretty good job of hiding it to win two playoff games.

[Reed83HOF]

Our season ended because the team was not ready for the more physical style of championship caliber football. We got blown off the ball on both lines, the wrs were too injured and the crowd noise,  according to Wood affected our line, Josh changed the plays too much to match the d who would change coverage right veggie the snap.  It was a multitude of issues...

 

In some ways you could say it was over before it started,  we weren't prepared enough for the rigors of this game...

[SCBills]

9 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Our season ended because the team was not ready for the more physical style of championship caliber football. We got blown off the ball on both lines, the wrs were too injured and the crowd noise,  according to Wood affected our line, Josh changed the plays too much to match the d who would change coverage right veggie the snap.  It was a multitude of issues...

 

In some ways you could say it was over before it started,  we weren't prepared enough for the rigors of this game...

 

It's easy to say, going into the game, "oh, no reason we have to wait our turn and lose this game before we can get to the Super Bowl", only to turn around and now admit "ok, it seems like those who said you have to take your lumps in climbing the mountain were correct".... but it does seem like there is some truth to it.  

 

There is an obvious step up from Regular Season to Playoff Football.  Then another step from the Wild Card & Divisional Rounds to Championship Weekend... I'm sure we could all feel it... it was different last week.  

 

Even KC, with the most uniquely talented roster in a while lost their first go around 2 years ago.  That being said..  KC doesn't have KC to go through to get to the Super Bowl.  We're going to need some mentality changes, and personnel changes, in order to take down Kansas City.   Even the Chiefs went out and got Frank Clark after that they lost this game in 2019.  

[Reed83HOF]

4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

It's easy to say, going into the game, "oh, no reason we have to wait our turn and lose this game before we can get to the Super Bowl", only to turn around and now admit "ok, it seems like those who said you have to take your lumps in climbing the mountain were correct".... but it does seem like there is some truth to it.  

 

There is an obvious step up from Regular Season to Playoff Football.  Then another step from the Wild Card & Divisional Rounds to Championship Weekend... I'm sure we could all feel it... it was different last week.  

 

Even KC, with the most uniquely talented roster in a while lost their first go around 2 years ago.  That being said..  KC doesn't have KC to go through to get to the Super Bowl.  We're going to need some mentality changes, and personnel changes, in order to take down Kansas City.   Even the Chiefs went out and got Frank Clark after that they lost this game in 2019.  

They also added to their offense in the draft adding Mecole Hardman in the second.  Just like Atlanta did with Ridley when they had Julio and Sanu.

 

We need a game breaker on offense, Curtis Samuel perhaps and a guy on D who is a freak, like the Diggs trade last year, to come in and force teams to game plan around him.  We can't sit back like we have been. The front 7 needs a little tweaking. 

 

Out of 10 times passing KC, we may win 2 or 3 of them.  I think we are like 2 to 3 players away,  a d monster and the freaky speed guy on offense and TE and RB upgrade... 

[SCBills]

Just now, Reed83HOF said:

They also added to their offense in the draft adding Mecole Hardman in the second.  Just like Atlanta did with Ridley when they had Julio and Sanu.

 

We need a game breaker on offense, Curtis Samuel perhaps and a guy on D who is a freak, like the Diggs trade last year, to come in and force teams to game plan around him.  We can't sit back like we have been. The front 7 needs a little tweaking. 

 

Out of 10 times passing KC, we may win 2 or 3 of them.  I think we are like 2 to 3 players away,  a d monster and the freaky speed guy on offense and TE and RB upgrade... 

 

If I were Beane..

 

I'd cut Addison, Jefferson and Butler.  I'd also let Milano walk.  None of them are gamebreakers on defense. 

 

We have enough above average players in Hughes, Star, Oliver, Edmunds, White and Poyer.  Take those cap savings and go big game hunting on the DL.  I know it will require an overpay for a guy who probably isn't elite, but it's the best chance we have to upgrade this defense (IMO).

 

On Offense, Pick #30 has to be Najee Harris or Kadarius Toney (if they are there).   Those two are direct responses to what KC did to us on Sunday.  Both guys give Josh someone that can turn a 5 yard gain into 15+.

[CommonCents]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

They came out hyped and ready to BULLY the Bills at every position. You had a Chiefs DL drop Morse with a punch to the jaw, and no one did anything.

 

The second I saw Sorensen, of all people, do some stupid "stake in the ground/not in my house" dance in Diggs face, I knew the game was over. And that was on our second possession.

 

KC was amped and hyped to an AFC Championship level. We were flat, soft, and "respectful". That's the difference in experience in being there before. The refs let you "play".

 

We'll be ready next time.

I think he clowned Feliciano, they went right at our meanest guy. Good post though, I felt the same. 

 

Need more nasty for next year. 

[djp14150]

3 hours ago, SCBills said:

Our defense could adjust and play differently as well.   They didn’t. 

Back to the WR’s...

 

Davis clearly should not have been active.  
 

Brown either fell off a cliff this year or he’s been hurt, either way, he doesn’t seem like he should’ve been out there.  

 

Beasley was obviously really hurt, but he played the best of all of them.  
 

Diggs... I don’t know.  Just seemed they effectively took him out of the game by scheme and nobody else could win their matchup.  
 

Lessons learned?

 

Defense needs to be adjusted both in scheme potential and personnel.  
 

Maybe don’t have a gadget player as WR5 and a Kick Returner as WR6 when you’re so dependent on going 3/4 wide.  

 

brown missed over half the season. He’s been injured and not 100%

mckenzie was hurt. He was injured late against Miami

Beasley was hurt

Diggs was hurt

davus was hurt

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, CommonCents said:

I think he clowned Feliciano, they went right at our meanest guy. Good post though, I felt the same. 

 

Need more nasty for next year. 

 

Yeah, I just looked up the video and you are right. He was engaged with Morse, but ends up hitting Feliciano and knocking him down. Sad either way.

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

We have definitely been hurt by the fact our receivers were all hurt in the playoffs. Every single one of our 5 main receivers has been on the injury report for some of the post season. Brown hasn't been healthy all year IMO, Beas was playing on a broken leg, Davis was playing hurt since the 1st quarter of the Ravens game and McKenzie and Diggs have both been nicked up too. 

 

I think the point @SCBills makes above is worth thinking about in terms of roster construction next year. The Bills carried 4 tight ends and 6 receivers this season. If they are going to run so much 4 and 5 wide stuff I'd expect them to redress that balance to 3 and 7 next year - whether that is Hodgins on the roster or maybe trying to work something longer term out with Stills or whatever. 

We might run the ball a bit and allow our WR to flatten the DB's and NOT take the almost unprotected hits they take after a catch.

[Reed83HOF]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

 

If I were Beane..

 

I'd cut Addison, Jefferson and Butler.  I'd also let Milano walk.  None of them are gamebreakers on defense. 

 

We have enough above average players in Hughes, Star, Oliver, Edmunds, White and Poyer.  Take those cap savings and go big game hunting on the DL.  I know it will require an overpay for a guy who probably isn't elite, but it's the best chance we have to upgrade this defense (IMO).

 

On Offense, Pick #30 has to be Najee Harris or Kadarius Toney (if they are there).   Those two are direct responses to what KC did to us on Sunday.  Both guys give Josh someone that can turn a 5 yard gain into 15+.

I'm not draft read yet lol.  But I agree I would slow the dl rotation down and spend on a great edge guy, whether lb or de. I would look for another good 1T dlman too. 

 

Sean alluded to on his end of season presser,  bigger and faster is where we need to go....

[Chaos]

3 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

Our season ended because the team was not ready for the more physical style of championship caliber football. We got blown off the ball on both lines, the wrs were too injured and the crowd noise,  according to Wood affected our line, Josh changed the plays too much to match the d who would change coverage right veggie the snap.  It was a multitude of issues...

 

In some ways you could say it was over before it started,  we weren't prepared enough for the rigors of this game...

having three injured WR's is hardly the same as lack of preparation.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

5 hours ago, Chaos said:

Coming into the game against the Chiefs, the Bills WRs were pretty dinged up as a group. Beasley, Brown & Davis were all gimpy. Then the Chiefs made the illegal body slam play against Diggs. While a flag was thrown on the play, the damage was done.  Diggs never seemed to fully regroup after that play. The rest of the evening was spent without anyone being able to get open. Tony Romo credited the defense with "sticky coverage," but the reality is that it is pretty easy for NFL secondary's to cover injured receivers. 

 

Andy Reid has a reputation as a good guy.  In this game his team played dirty. 

It took the official like 5 sec to decide if he should throw the flag. We definitely didn’t play good enough to win the game but the officials were once again horrendous. We should have done the same body slam to Hill but White was never close enough in coverage to even touch him.

[B-Large]

5 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

They came out hyped and ready to BULLY the Bills at every position. You had a Chiefs DL drop Morse with a punch to the jaw, and no one did anything.

 

The second I saw Sorensen, of all people, do some stupid "stake in the ground/not in my house" dance in Diggs face, I knew the game was over. And that was on our second possession.

 

KC was amped and hyped to an AFC Championship level. We were flat, soft, and "respectful". That's the difference in experience in being there before. The refs let you "play".

 

We'll be ready next time.

we needed a Talib/ Lewis/ Harrison nastiness on that defense Sunday.  Outside of Poyer’s stick we looked like intimidated pansies. 
 

it was obvious stripes was gonna let the men play... I thought we’d come out at the half and get more physical, maybe a little dirty... nope.

 

Not saying the Bills are wussy.... but they clearly haven’t played at that level in 25 years and it showed. 

[Reed83HOF]

49 minutes ago, Chaos said:

having three injured WR's is hardly the same as lack of preparation.

I didn't say it was and I didn't say lack of preparation in the way you are referring to it. It's a combination of many things. Smoke and Davis were the 2 who were mostly hobbled but them being 100%,  I don't see that changing the outcome that much. We weren't prepared for the physicality of this game, the entire team...

 

 

[Billl]

The Chiefs didn’t forget all the cheap shots Buffalo took in the first game.  I didn’t see any dirty play other than the Jones punch, (and I’d be curious to see what precipitated that).  The Breeland tackle of Diggs was physical, but he didn’t spike him into the ground.  The ref should have blown the whistle as soon as Diggs was lifted off the ground, but Breeland certainly didn’t drive him to the turf.  Same with the Allen sack.  It’s a tough sport, and these guys were fighting for a trip to the Super Bowl.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

9 hours ago, SCBills said:

I get what you’re saying with this comment, but this year, that was our only punch..  Allen to the WR’s... that’s it.  Knox is potential and we have no running backs. 
 

It seems we may not have played Stills because Josh didn’t have much practice with him.  Only 3 weeks together and Stills practicing with Barkley.   We go 4 wide often and only have 4 true WR’s on the traditional active roster. 
 

Next year, I’d like to see a RB not named Singletary and a true WR as WR5... do whatever you want at WR6. 

 

Like our #6 WR Roberts, add to that a 3rd RB in T Jones that only plays ST too.  I understand the reluctance to play Williams over Yeldon as again all we'd seen of him looking real great was in mock up duty against Miami.  But maybe they could have also activated Williams at the expense of Jones.  Would think Williams could play some ST?  At least then if Williams doesn't doo much still have Yeldon and Singletery to go back to.

 

Could even throw in Matakevich as a LB who does nothing but play ST so are somewhat short in 3 position groupings, but have 9 D lineman and CB typically active.

 

May need to find more Gilliam types that are good ST players, but can still contribute to offense and defense when called upon and more importantly, not to seemingly be afraid to call on them.

[Bferra13]

That bodyslam was not that bad. He didn't drive him into the ground or anything. I doubt that had any affect on Diggs. Maybe it affected the Bills psyche? Doubtful though.

[DE Bills Fan]

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

We have definitely been hurt by the fact our receivers were all hurt in the playoffs. Every single one of our 5 main receivers has been on the injury report for some of the post season. Brown hasn't been healthy all year IMO, Beas was playing on a broken leg, Davis was playing hurt since the 1st quarter of the Ravens game and McKenzie and Diggs have both been nicked up too. 

 

I think the point @SCBills makes above is worth thinking about in terms of roster construction next year. The Bills carried 4 tight ends and 6 receivers this season. If they are going to run so much 4 and 5 wide stuff I'd expect them to redress that balance to 3 and 7 next year - whether that is Hodgins on the roster or maybe trying to work something longer term out with Stills or whatever. 

Looking forward to seeing what Hodgins can do. He was doing well in camp reportedly and Is a big receiver, so we’ll see. 

[billsfan89]

The WR corps was really banged up and going against a good but not great secondary. Beasley was playing on a semi-broken leg and John Brown had been banged up all season. Then Davis gets banged up against the Ravens and Diggs gets seemingly dinged up against KC. The Chiefs were then able to bring pressure due to the good coverage and make the Bills offense one dimensional (due to KC's offense putting up so many points.) The Bills O-line was going to be under a lot of stress even without the blitzing due to Jones and Clark so once the blitzing commenced the team was just not going to be able to protect Josh enough. The WR corps not being 100% is the domino that collapsed the chance of winning. Yes the bad defensive game plan didn't help but you need to put up 30 against KC.

 

This team got unlucky in a lot of ways but still even if the Bills came out and had all 4 of their top receivers healthy it likely wasn't going to be their day. I think in the end the Bills are going to have to hope for a cap of 195-205 million and try and run it back and get help via the draft. Resign Mongo, D.Williams, Milano, Levi, Ty, Roberts, T.Jones, Barkley and possibly Mac and then use picks 30 and 62 to try and get a edge rusher and another TE to platoon with Knox, use the rest of the draft picks to sure up depth and get younger in areas where the team is older. 

 

It is unlikely the Bills won't lose someone of value via free agency. But if they can keep the core 4 free agents of D.Williams, Mongo, Levi and Milano and retain some of the depth players I think they can shoot their shot in the draft to get those last pieces needed and replace the depth. Run it back with 1-2 pieces added and things could pan out.

[Freak-O]

When Singletary dropped the ball I felt like the game wasn't going to end well. I still had hope, but that drop took some of the air out of me. I can't really explain it.