Chaos Theory: The play that effectively ended the Bill's season

[Chaos]

Coming into the game against the Chiefs, the Bills WRs were pretty dinged up as a group. Beasley, Brown & Davis were all gimpy. Then the Chiefs made the illegal body slam play against Diggs. While a flag was thrown on the play, the damage was done.  Diggs never seemed to fully regroup after that play. The rest of the evening was spent without anyone being able to get open. Tony Romo credited the defense with "sticky coverage," but the reality is that it is pretty easy for NFL secondary's to cover injured receivers. 

 

Andy Reid has a reputation as a good guy.  In this game his team played dirty. 

[SCBills]

Our defense could adjust and play differently as well.   They didn’t. 

Back to the WR’s...

 

Davis clearly should not have been active.  
 

Brown either fell off a cliff this year or he’s been hurt, either way, he doesn’t seem like he should’ve been out there.  

 

Beasley was obviously really hurt, but he played the best of all of them.  
 

Diggs... I don’t know.  Just seemed they effectively took him out of the game by scheme and nobody else could win their matchup.  
 

Lessons learned?

 

Defense needs to be adjusted both in scheme potential and personnel.  
 

Maybe don’t have a gadget player as WR5 and a Kick Returner as WR6 when you’re so dependent on going 3/4 wide.  

[Chaos]

1 minute ago, SCBills said:

 

Maybe don’t have a gadget player as WR5 and a Kick Returner as WR6 when you’re so dependent on going 3/4 wide.  

Which teams WR5 and WR6 do you covet?  

[SoCal Deek]

Or...we could have a complimentary running game...like most teams do.

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

Which teams WR5 and WR6 do you covet?  

I get what you’re saying with this comment, but this year, that was our only punch..  Allen to the WR’s... that’s it.  Knox is potential and we have no running backs. 
 

It seems we may not have played Stills because Josh didn’t have much practice with him.  Only 3 weeks together and Stills practicing with Barkley.   We go 4 wide often and only have 4 true WR’s on the traditional active roster. 
 

Next year, I’d like to see a RB not named Singletary and a true WR as WR5... do whatever you want at WR6. 

[NewEra]

14 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Coming into the game against the Chiefs, the Bills WRs were pretty dinged up as a group. Beasley, Brown & Davis were all gimpy. Then the Chiefs made the illegal body slam play against Diggs. While a flag was thrown on the play, the damage was done.  Diggs never seemed to fully regroup after that play. The rest of the evening was spent without anyone being able to get open. Tony Romo credited the defense with "sticky coverage," but the reality is that it is pretty easy for NFL secondary's to cover injured receivers. 

 

Andy Reid has a reputation as a good guy.  In this game his team played dirty. 

No

[DrDawkinstein]

They came out hyped and ready to BULLY the Bills at every position. You had a Chiefs DL drop Morse with a punch to the jaw, and no one did anything.

 

The second I saw Sorensen, of all people, do some stupid "stake in the ground/not in my house" dance in Diggs face, I knew the game was over. And that was on our second possession.

 

KC was amped and hyped to an AFC Championship level. We were flat, soft, and "respectful". That's the difference in experience in being there before. The refs let you "play".

 

We'll be ready next time.

[die hard bills fan]

should have sat Davis, why put someone out there who can't be effective.  Why not use Mckenzie we know he can play after the Miami game.

[Chaos]

13 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Or...we could have a complimentary running game...like most teams do.

Most teams (exactly 28 of 32) did not play in a conference championship game.  It is not obvious what "most teams do"  forms the model for what the Bills should be doing.  
 

If Kelce & Hill were playing at 80% in the game against the Bills, the Chiefs would not have had much more  of a running attack to turn to than the Bills did.  

[Freddie's Dead]

15 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Or...we could have a complimentary running game...like most teams do.

 

Nice run TJ!  Good handoff Josh!

[die hard bills fan]

8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

They came out hyped and ready to BULLY the Bills at every position. You had a Chiefs DL drop Morse with a punch to the jaw, and no one did anything.

 

The second I saw Sorensen, of all people, do some stupid "stake in the ground/not in my house" dance in Diggs face, I knew the game was over. And that was on our second possession.

 

KC was amped and hyped to an AFC Championship level. We were flat, soft, and "respectful". That's the difference in experience in being there before. The refs let you "play".

 

We'll be ready next time.

That's why I'm glad Feliciano and Dawkins started hitting people when Josh went down on the sack. The game was over but i think it sent a message for next year.

[SCBills]

I had the Chiefs pegged for a finesse team, but the team we played had a “been there, done that - we know how this game goes” mentality and straight bullied us all game.  
 

Not something anyone on this team probably wants to admit, but I’d hope the coaches will drive this into their psyches.  

[GunnerBill]

We have definitely been hurt by the fact our receivers were all hurt in the playoffs. Every single one of our 5 main receivers has been on the injury report for some of the post season. Brown hasn't been healthy all year IMO, Beas was playing on a broken leg, Davis was playing hurt since the 1st quarter of the Ravens game and McKenzie and Diggs have both been nicked up too. 

 

I think the point @SCBills makes above is worth thinking about in terms of roster construction next year. The Bills carried 4 tight ends and 6 receivers this season. If they are going to run so much 4 and 5 wide stuff I'd expect them to redress that balance to 3 and 7 next year - whether that is Hodgins on the roster or maybe trying to work something longer term out with Stills or whatever. 

[boco357]

22 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Our defense could adjust and play differently as well.   They didn’t. 

Back to the WR’s...

 

Davis clearly should not have been active.  
 

Brown either fell off a cliff this year or he’s been hurt, either way, he doesn’t seem like he should’ve been out there.  

 

Beasley was obviously really hurt, but he played the best of all of them.  
 

Diggs... I don’t know.  Just seemed they effectively took him out of the game by scheme and nobody else could win their matchup.  
 

Lessons learned?

 

Defense needs to be adjusted both in scheme potential and personnel.  
 

Maybe don’t have a gadget player as WR5 and a Kick Returner as WR6 when you’re so dependent on going 3/4 wide.  

I agree and this team in my opinion over rates back end players for ST use only.  Gilliam, good story, but it would have been nice to dress a Stills, Antonio Williams.  

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, die hard bills fan said:

should have sat Davis, why put someone out there who can't be effective.  Why not use Mckenzie we know he can play after the Miami game.

I agree McKenzie seemingly would have been more effective.  Based on the Miami game, I would have expected Antonio Williams to bring more to the table than the other options.  However, McDermott seems very committed to the concept of "Dance with who brought you".  I don't know if this is out of a sense or loyalty to the players, or if it is the practical reality based on who has had the game/practice reps.   

3 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I had the Chiefs pegged for a finesse team, but the team we played had a “been there, done that - we know how this game goes” mentality and straight bullied us all game.  
 

Not something anyone on this team probably wants to admit, but I’d hope the coaches will drive this into their psyches.  

Playoff football is a different beast than the regular season. But the Bills won 13/16 regular season and 2/3 playoff games, so we are doing more right than wrong.  

[Bob in STL]

Diggs was doubled all game because Brown/Davis were no threat.  If you can double Diggs and blitz nearly every play you will have a good chance of playing 2019 Allen, not 2020 Allen.  Beasley made plays but he is not enough to overcome the lack of plays from Brown/Davis.  Too many 4 wr sets with ineffective Brown/Davis.  
 

Good to see Knox make some plays.  In a game like this, more TE and RB passes would have saved Allen, if he is willing to be patient.  
 

Running the ball is a mindset.  A better back is only part of it.  We need to look at the OL too.  Are our linemen better pass blockers versus run blockers?   Do we need more balance in OL skills?  
 

You want to get closer to KC?   Find a RB like Thurman, a dual threat.  

[Chaos]

8 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

Diggs was doubled all game because Brown/Davis were no threat.  If you can double Diggs and blitz nearly every play you will have a good chance of playing 2019 Allen, not 2020 Allen.  Beasley made plays but he is not enough to overcome the lack of plays from Brown/Davis.  Too many 4 wr sets with ineffective Brown/Davis.  
 

Good to see Knox make some plays.  In a game like this, more TE and RB passes would have saved Allen, if he is willing to be patient.  
 

Running the ball is a mindset.  A better back is only part of it.  We need to look at the OL too.  Are our linemen better pass blockers versus run blockers?   Do we need more balance in OL skills?  
 

You want to get closer to KC?   Find a RB like Thurman, a dual threat.  

Reversion to 2019 Allen is a myth.  Allen is an elite QB.  Full stop.  Given normal time and open receivers he destroys other teams.  If you swapped Mahomes and Allen in the game just played, the results would have been the same. 

[Bronxbomber21]

58 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Coming into the game against the Chiefs, the Bills WRs were pretty dinged up as a group. Beasley, Brown & Davis were all gimpy. Then the Chiefs made the illegal body slam play against Diggs. While a flag was thrown on the play, the damage was done.  Diggs never seemed to fully regroup after that play. The rest of the evening was spent without anyone being able to get open. Tony Romo credited the defense with "sticky coverage," but the reality is that it is pretty easy for NFL secondary's to cover injured receivers. 

 

Andy Reid has a reputation as a good guy.  In this game his team played dirty. 

I think the turning point play was the Singletary drop with no one around him.  And the redzone play calling was gross

[Chaos]

Just now, Bronxbomber21 said:

I think the turning point play was the Singletary drop with no one around him.  And the redzone play calling was gross

That play was critical.  The Diggs body slam completed the process of taking the Bills out of the game physically.  The Singletary drop nearly completed the process of taking the team out of the game emotionally. 

[texasjute]

2 minutes ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

I think the turning point play was the Singletary drop with no one around him.  And the redzone play calling was gross

 

Was just typing the same thing - the Singletary drop changed the game, IMO. That goes for a big gain and you've instilled confidence in the offense and given the defense more than one dimension to think about. Score points on that drive and the game looks completely different.