Theory on why Allen struggles against KC

[LABILLBACKER]

23 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

This. Romo marveling at their ‘sticky coverage’ w no closeups 😂😂😂 you could see it on broadcast

They did occassionally show a grasp or jersey hold. Face it we weren't get any of those calls. The NFL wanted and got their premier matchup. If we had a running game maybe they wouldn't have been able to flood the secondary. 

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

My brother’s theory was that Allen benefited from no fans this year. It didn’t happen much but you can seem he get a little flustered in some games. So given the stage, going against Mahomes, and the “biggest” crowd of the season, I think he got a little shook. But he will be better for it. 

I thought some of that played a role myself. He did have two of his worst games this year against this team though. Again, he also struggles against NE. Worst game of the year in the first one. Despite the most people agreeing I do think it's related to late movement on defense which is what KC is known for, what I saw, NE is known for as well.  

Edited January 26, 2021 by KzooMike

[BillMafia716ix]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

My brother’s theory was that Allen benefited from no fans this year. It didn’t happen much but you can seem he get a little flustered in some games. So given the stage, going against Mahomes, and the “biggest” crowd of the season, I think he got a little shook. But he will be better for it. 

 
Very good point. He was pretty flustered all night. This is why I think it’s so important that we need to find some sort of rushing attack to help Josh out. Right now he really has to do it all by himself, which has been the case since his rookie season. When Josh struggles..the Bills lose. It’s a guarantee. 

[Zerovoltz]

......or maybe the Chiefs just happen to be a bad matchup for what the Bills do on offense?  KC led the NFL in fewest receptions allowed to WR all year.  KC has 5 above average CB and 3 good safeties...two of whom are very good in coverage (Thornhill and HB)  Buffalo ran more 3 and 4 WR sets than any team in the NFL...and while Allen did make some big plays with his legs..KC's ends are big and contain well...(also another reason why KC always seems to stop Lamar)  

 

KC's LB suck at coverage, but if they don't need to be on the field becasue of teh personel groupings the Bills run almost all the time..then they aren't going to put them out there.

 

It's not a coincidence KC held Diggs to his 2nd lowest REC and Yardage totals in week 6 and it's not a coincidence he was a non factor in this AFCCG.  It's not hard to figure out how to burn the Chiefs D....you do it with a steady diet of throws to TE and RB and FB out of 2 TE sets....forces KC to put crappy, LB out there who can't cover.  Go look at KC VS Raiders box scores...both games...is the same story.....Waller and the RB's killing KC.  

 

Sometimes teams just run into a crap matchup and what can you do?  Does anyone really think the Raiders are some great team on par with KC?  No...they aren't...but they happen to operate with personell and an offense that KC is NOT equipped to defend well at all.  IN the salary cap era...it's really hard to field a complete team...and you gotta scheme around or outsocre or help or change things up sometimes to overcome what you aren't good at..and sometimes it still isn't enough.

 

You have smart people running your team....they know what they need to do.....and they'll do it...the Bills have a great chance to continue trending upward and be an even better team next year.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 minute ago, BillMafia716ix said:

 
Very good point. He was pretty flustered all night. This is why I think it’s so important that we need to find some sort of rushing attack to help Josh out. Right now he really has to do it all by himself, which has been the case since his rookie season. When Josh struggles..the Bills lose. It’s a guarantee. 

You can't and shouldn't expect Josh to be 95% of our offense. Hey Daboll, spend your last year in Buffalo developing some run support before you shuffle off to your next adventure. 

[HalftimeAdjustment]

They were really taking away our WRs and they got too much pressure. What were our best options?

 

- Allen runs ... could have used even more

- Jet sweep ... used a couple times

- Short dump to TE ... under used

- RB screen ... drop hurt us bad

- Other runs ... we aren't good at this

 

I'd have liked to see some playcalling adjustments because of the pressure, it might have backed them off a bit. If we held the ball a bit longer on offense and scored a bit more, maybe our D would have held up a little more? Or maybe we would still have lost, but looked better on O.

 

[HappyDays]

21 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

Started from the first play. He threw it directly at KC defender in 2 of 3 of our first drives. Both should have been picked, neither was. This was well prior to us needing to chase. He actually played better when we had to chase. 

 

Yeah Allen definitely had a rough start to the game. He hit rock bottom on the 3 and out drive when he stared down Brown and threw what should have been a pick. But after that drive I thought he actually played quite well considering we had no run game and receivers not getting open for the first time all year. Allen has had a few games like that this year - Arizona, Pittsburgh, Rams in the 2nd half - where he starts poorly but finds his rhythm in crunch time. The problem is this time KC was already up by 2 TDs at that point and we never found a way to stop them. If the defense could have held just a couple times we had a chance to come back.

[HappyDays]

13 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

you do it with a steady diet of throws to TE and RB and FB out of 2 TE sets.

 

This is 100% correct. And you can tell Daboll wants to use the RBs more. I've been on his case this season about over relying on our RBs when it was apparent we don't have the personnel to make that concept work, but he comes from the New England system where James White was a critical piece. Plays like that are exactly how you beat the KC defense, we just don't have the horses. I'll be shocked if upgrading the RBs isn't a major focus in the draft or free agency. It was a handicap all year.

 

I would have liked to see Knox more involved as a pass catcher too. He's was bad early in the season but I thought he finally showed some flashes over the last month.

[Scott7975]

or its just they blanketed our receivers very well and had constant pressure on Josh.  That doesn't make for an easy day.  On the flip side (not to take away from Mahomes) but he faced almost no pressure and had Hill and Kelce open all day.  Mahomes had a walk in the park.  Josh had a tough fight in a warzone.

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, KzooMike said:

In order to be good you need to know where to throw the ball, then you execute quickly and accurately. We always knew if Josh ever got to a point where he didn't have to see a player come open but rather anticipate it, with his natural talent, the sky is the limit. KC has a good pass defense, that said, we underperformed dramatically against them this year. This made me wonder if two things that stuck with me recently might tell some of the story on why we struggle vs KC.   

 

• In a recent SI article (Genius of Brian Daboll) it discusses how Daboll coaches players to remove options in the route tree based on coverage. So instead of teaching a player who is the guy, you focus on teaching him who isn't. 
• This season, Buffalo increased it's rate of motion from 2019 by 27%, that is nearly 12% more than the next closest team. Daboll had players moving pre snap at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Most the time motion is used to diagnose coverage. 
• KC is one of the best teams in the NFL at hiding coverages

 

KC, along with a great pass rush, which compounds everything, plays the perfect defense to confuse Josh. Don't let him eliminate routes and make him go through the whole progression. If you watch the first half, Josh looked confused. We haven't seen him look like that in some time. He looked like he didn't know where the ball was supposed to go and threw what was likely his easiest INT ball all year. KC just dropped it.

 

It almost makes you wonder why more teams don't play Allen like the Chiefs. Well, let me ask you, how would the Bills play Allen? Cover 2 Zone, we wouldn't change. Teams are stubborn to identity. This is just like asking why don't teams motion more when motion has been statistically proven to have a + EPA?

 

We also struggle against NE. All but the last one. NE seems like a team that could care less about identity and likely employs a lot of hidden coverages. That said, the Chiefs are the best at this. Just a theory, discuss or call names....   

no the lack of a running game and putting it all on Allen’s shoulders finally caught up to them the Chiefs can always keep a defense honest with their backs we can’t 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

9 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Because KC is really good? They don’t have a good defense but when they get the lead, their pass rushers can tee off. It’s like the Colts with Manning. 
 

also, even though they aren’t head to head, it’s got to be really hard for a qb going against Mahomes. You know you need at least 30 and have no margin of error, so you force more. 

Their pass rushers could tee off anyway because the bills can’t won’t and don’t run. 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Their pass rushers could tee off anyway because the bills can’t won’t and don’t run. 

agreed. Lack of balance cost this team. Screens could have helped a bit with that too. 

[HOUSE]

This is Poppycock....not sure why, I just like saying that

[NewEra]

10 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

......or maybe the Chiefs just happen to be a bad matchup for what the Bills do on offense?  KC led the NFL in fewest receptions allowed to WR all year.  KC has 5 above average CB and 3 good safeties...two of whom are very good in coverage (Thornhill and HB)  Buffalo ran more 3 and 4 WR sets than any team in the NFL...and while Allen did make some big plays with his legs..KC's ends are big and contain well...(also another reason why KC always seems to stop Lamar)  

 

KC's LB suck at coverage, but if they don't need to be on the field becasue of teh personel groupings the Bills run almost all the time..then they aren't going to put them out there.

 

It's not a coincidence KC held Diggs to his 2nd lowest REC and Yardage totals in week 6 and it's not a coincidence he was a non factor in this AFCCG.  It's not hard to figure out how to burn the Chiefs D....you do it with a steady diet of throws to TE and RB and FB out of 2 TE sets....forces KC to put crappy, LB out there who can't cover.  Go look at KC VS Raiders box scores...both games...is the same story.....Waller and the RB's killing KC.  

 

Sometimes teams just run into a crap matchup and what can you do?  Does anyone really think the Raiders are some great team on par with KC?  No...they aren't...but they happen to operate with personell and an offense that KC is NOT equipped to defend well at all.  IN the salary cap era...it's really hard to field a complete team...and you gotta scheme around or outsocre or help or change things up sometimes to overcome what you aren't good at..and sometimes it still isn't enough.

 

You have smart people running your team....they know what they need to do.....and they'll do it...the Bills have a great chance to continue trending upward and be an even better team next year.

You’re right.  It’s not a coincidence. That’s what happens when Breeland is called for 2 PI’s and negates 2 catches for 35 yards. No coincidence that your corners were mugging and holding our WRs the majority of the game.  I’m not hating on it.  It’s smart and lucky at the same time. Smart because everyone knows the refs aren’t throwing flags this season.  Lucky because the you never know for sure what the refs are going to do (see the packers bucs game).  I wish we would’ve been coached to play similarly. But we chose to play 10 yards off your wrs instead 🙄  

 

Thumbs up to Spags and Reid.  They won the game.  Thumbs down to McD, Frazier and Daboll. They failed their players and their fans.  

 

what are your thoughts on this

 if jones is ejected like the rules state, it’s a different game.  Sucks that an all time great player would do something like this in the AFCCG. Sucks worse that he’s allowed to get away with it. What a bush league move.  He and Okafor. 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

We need to be able to run the ball against KC.  

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

20 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

agreed. Lack of balance cost this team. Screens could have helped a bit with that too. 

Even quick check downs. 

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

......or maybe the Chiefs just happen to be a bad matchup for what the Bills do on offense?  KC led the NFL in fewest receptions allowed to WR all year.  KC has 5 above average CB and 3 good safeties...two of whom are very good in coverage (Thornhill and HB)  Buffalo ran more 3 and 4 WR sets than any team in the NFL...and while Allen did make some big plays with his legs..KC's ends are big and contain well...(also another reason why KC always seems to stop Lamar)  

 

KC's LB suck at coverage, but if they don't need to be on the field becasue of teh personel groupings the Bills run almost all the time..then they aren't going to put them out there.

 

It's not a coincidence KC held Diggs to his 2nd lowest REC and Yardage totals in week 6 and it's not a coincidence he was a non factor in this AFCCG.  It's not hard to figure out how to burn the Chiefs D....you do it with a steady diet of throws to TE and RB and FB out of 2 TE sets....forces KC to put crappy, LB out there who can't cover.  Go look at KC VS Raiders box scores...both games...is the same story.....Waller and the RB's killing KC.  

 

Sometimes teams just run into a crap matchup and what can you do?  Does anyone really think the Raiders are some great team on par with KC?  No...they aren't...but they happen to operate with personell and an offense that KC is NOT equipped to defend well at all.  IN the salary cap era...it's really hard to field a complete team...and you gotta scheme around or outsocre or help or change things up sometimes to overcome what you aren't good at..and sometimes it still isn't enough.

 

You have smart people running your team....they know what they need to do.....and they'll do it...the Bills have a great chance to continue trending upward and be an even better team next year.

 

It is this. The match up for the Bills just isn't a great one. KC defends the sort of O the Bills want to run pretty well and it attacks the sort of D the Bills want to run very well. It's a match up league. 

 

The one area where I find fewer excuses for the Bills is their protection schemes. We have protected Josh well this year even against teams who blitz a lot but we have had two awful protection games..... both against the Chiefs. They have to get that figured out. They need to work out what Spags is doing that nobody else has been able to do. That would help our receivers. Because I don't care who you are.... there is no corner in the NFL who can cover Stefon Diggs if Josh gets 3 seconds in the pocket to throw. 

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is this. The match up for the Bills just isn't a great one. KC defends the sort of O the Bills want to run pretty well and it attacks the sort of D the Bills want to run very well. It's a match up league. 

 

The one area where I find fewer excuses for the Bills is their protection schemes. We have protected Josh well this year even against teams who blitz a lot but we have had two awful protection games..... both against the Chiefs. They have to get that figured out. They need to work out what Spags is doing that nobody else has been able to do. That would help our receivers. Because I don't care who you are.... there is no corner in the NFL who can cover Stefon Diggs if Josh gets 3 seconds in the pocket to throw. 

 

Would KC's defense have to lighten up on the aggressiveness if the Bills could show we could run the ball?

 

[NewEra]

My theory is our lack of running game allows them to focus 💯 on stopping our passing game for 💯 of the game.  That combined with Spags, Chris Jones, Frank Clark and the referees new found reluctance to throw penalties on corners in coverage is too much to overcome as we are currently constructed 

[Mr. WEO]

How much of his progression can he go through as he is running backward away from pass rush?  

 

And can we stop with the "why did we put the WR on the field, what about Stills?", etc?  Davis was legit injured.  Beasley was still pretty mobile.  Brown wasn't injured, just not able to get separation anymore.   Stills is a bum--if he was of value they would have activated him and sat Davis.