Theory on why Allen struggles against KC

[Mikie2times]

In order to be good you need to know where to throw the ball, then you execute quickly and accurately. We always knew if Josh ever got to a point where he didn't have to see a player come open but rather anticipate it, with his natural talent, the sky is the limit. KC has a good pass defense, that said, we underperformed dramatically against them this year. This made me wonder if two things that stuck with me recently might tell some of the story on why we struggle vs KC.   

 

• In a recent SI article (Genius of Brian Daboll) it discusses how Daboll coaches players to remove options in the route tree based on coverage. So instead of teaching a player who is the guy, you focus on teaching him who isn't. 
• This season, Buffalo increased it's rate of motion from 2019 by 27%, that is nearly 12% more than the next closest team. Daboll had players moving pre snap at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Most the time motion is used to diagnose coverage. 
• KC is one of the best teams in the NFL at hiding coverages

 

KC, along with a great pass rush, which compounds everything, plays the perfect defense to confuse Josh. Don't let him eliminate routes and make him go through the whole progression. If you watch the first half, Josh looked confused. We haven't seen him look like that in some time. He looked like he didn't know where the ball was supposed to go and threw what was likely his easiest INT ball all year. KC just dropped it.

 

It almost makes you wonder why more teams don't play Allen like the Chiefs. Well, let me ask you, how would the Bills play Allen? Cover 2 Zone, we wouldn't change. Teams are stubborn to identity. This is just like asking why don't teams motion more when motion has been statistically proven to have a + EPA?

 

We also struggle against NE. All but the last one. NE seems like a team that could care less about identity and likely employs a lot of hidden coverages. That said, the Chiefs are the best at this. Just a theory, discuss or call names....   

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

In order to be good you need to know where to throw the ball, then you execute quickly and accurately. We always knew if Josh ever got to a point where he didn't have to see a player come open but rather anticipate it, with his natural talent, the sky is the limit. KC has a good pass defense, that said, we underperformed dramatically against them this year. This made me wonder if two things that stuck with me recently might tell some of the story on why we struggle vs KC.   

 

• In a recent SI article (Genius of Brian Daboll) it discusses how Daboll coaches players to remove options in the route tree based on coverage. So instead of teaching a player who is the guy, you focus on teaching him who isn't. 
• This season, Buffalo increased it's rate of motion from 2019 by 27%, that is nearly 12% more than the next closest team. Daboll had players moving pre snap at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Most the time motion is used to diagnose coverage. 
• KC is one of the best teams in the NFL at hiding coverages

 

KC, along with a great pass rush, which compounds everything, plays the perfect defense to confuse Josh. Don't let him eliminate routes and make him go through the whole progression. If you watch the first half, Josh looked confused. We haven't seen him look like that in some time. He looked like he didn't know where the ball was supposed to go and threw what was likely his easiest INT ball all year. KC just dropped it.

 

It almost makes you wonder why more teams don't play Allen like the Chiefs. Well, let me ask you, how would the Bills play Allen? Cover 2 Zone, we wouldn't change. Teams are stubborn to identity. This is just like asking why don't teams motion more when motion has been statistically proven to have a + EPA?

 

We also struggle against NE. All but the last one. NE seems like a team that could care less about identity and likely employs a lot of hidden coverages. That said, the Chiefs are the best at this. Just a theory, discuss or call names....   

They weren't doing anything confusing on defense

 

They were pressing our receivers and mugging them downfield. can't get separation when you're being mugged and the refs are holding the flag 

 

Josh couldn't get rid of the ball because there was no open receivers downfield

 

 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

They weren't doing anything confusing on defense

 

They were pressing our receivers and mugging them downfield. can't get separation when you're being mugged and the refs are holding the flag 

 

Josh couldn't get rid of the ball because there was no open receivers downfield

 

 

This. Romo marveling at their ‘sticky coverage’ w no closeups 😂😂😂 you could see it on broadcast

[Mikie2times]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

They weren't doing anything confusing on defense

 

They were pressing our receivers and mugging them downfield. can't get separation when you're being mugged and the refs are holding the flag 

 

Josh couldn't get rid of the ball because there was no open receivers downfield

 

 

How much were you watching for pre snap movement from the Chiefs? All they did was change looks from what they showed pre snap. It was about the only thing you could predict.  

[Mike in Horseheads]

I always advocate for the cover 11 defense.

[Buffalo716]

6 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

How much were you watching for pre snap movement from the Chiefs? All they did was change looks from what they showed pre snap. It was about the only thing you could predict.  

Maybe some of their linebackers were moving around. But 80% of the game, their secondary was lined up in cover one press, ran a bunch of robber, or feigned robber and played cover two man press

 

They weren't that confusing pre-snap. 

 

They pressed and manned up on our receivers the whole game, while dialing in the blitz

Edited January 26, 2021 by Buffalo716

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

I always advocate for the cover 11 defense.

[Best Williams Available]

It really is just as simple as the receivers being blanketed. Beas, Davis and Smoke were hobbling for weeks and it caught up with them. Chiefs must’ve known this and doubled Diggs. The sin is allowing these hurt and ineffective WRs on the field when Robert’s and McKenzie (and Stills) could have played. Yes Josh isn’t used to these guys but I mean the alternative was worse.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I was watching the game highlights today from the Bucs/Chiefs game to see how they defensed Brady. it was pretty similar.
 

How did Brady handle it? Check downs. Gronk and Jones had huge days on simple crosses and dump downs. 
 

I think those were there last night and josh didn’t take them. I also think the little crosses to Knox were there all night— but were rarely called. Once, I think. The chiefs can’t cover those very well. Other teams target their LB’s and Sorenson in coverage on those.

[IBTG81]

It was the pass rush up the middle. Between that and the blanketing (holding) of the receivers, no bueno. 

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

Maybe some of their linebackers were moving around. But 90% of the game, their secondary was lined up in cover one press

 

They weren't that confusing pre-snap. 

 

They pressed and manned up on our receivers the whole game, while dialing in the blitz

 

Watch a couple minutes. I don't feel like doing this for the entire video. On the first 8 plays plays, 4 are disguised packages, one nearly resulting in an INT, the rest resulting in sacks or near sacks. Mostly Cover 2 or Cover One switches, one zone switch, they had the OLB bailing into a cover 2 look all game. I do understand Romo showed a lot of sticky coverage replays which would make you think they just blitzed and pressed all game. Just not the case. 

[DCofNC]

In surprise move of the year, Bills fire OC Daboll for ***** performance in the playoffs.. ahh doubtful I guess.

[Nihilarian]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

They weren't doing anything confusing on defense

 

They were pressing our receivers and mugging them downfield. can't get separation when you're being mugged and the refs are holding the flag 

 

Josh couldn't get rid of the ball because there was no open receivers downfield

Josh had a tough day no question. But then, what does anyone expect when the entire offense is on the 3rd year QB's shoulders. Then when his receivers aren't getting separation it makes everything even more difficult. 

 

I'm going to put this loss all on the coaches on both sides of the ball. Frazier allowing 38 points when the previous game only allowed 3.  The defense had no answer for the Chiefs offense.

 

By the same token Brian Daboll has been even worse in his game plan/ play calling since the first playoff game. The Colts game was a lot closer then it should have been and against the Ravens the Bills offense only scored 10 points. 

 

OTOH,  the Chiefs OC & DC had their game plans fine tuned as if they had been watching the Bills every move all year. They successfully shut down the Bills passing attack and with no real run game it made things easy. The Bills secondary was torched too. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

They were able to figure some things out and move the ball some. If those 4 FGs are TDs Bills are in that game. 
 

They lost the game in the red zone. Imo. 

[C.Biscuit97]

Because KC is really good? They don’t have a good defense but when they get the lead, their pass rushers can tee off. It’s like the Colts with Manning. 
 

also, even though they aren’t head to head, it’s got to be really hard for a qb going against Mahomes. You know you need at least 30 and have no margin of error, so you force more. 

[Nihilarian]

2 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

In surprise move of the year, Bills fire OC Daboll for ***** performance in the playoffs.. ahh doubtful I guess.

They were just as bad on the other side of the ball... 38 points and they made it look easy. 

 

No team up until this game had been able to take away Diggs. I suspect that all the Bills receivers we playing dinged up. We now know Beasley was playing with a broken leg. 

 

This is why the Buffalo Bills NEED a strong run game so when the passing offense is not working they have other options. 

[Buffalo716]

15 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

 

Watch a couple minutes. I don't feel like doing this for the entire video. On the first 8 plays plays, 4 are disguised packages, one nearly resulting in an INT, the rest resulting in sacks or near sacks. Mostly Cover 2 or Cover One switches, one zone switch, they had the OLB bailing into a cover 2 look all game. I do understand Romo showed a lot of sticky coverage replays which would make you think they just blitzed and pressed all game. Just not the case. 

My opinion has nothing to do with what Tony Romo said

 

They obviously played more than one coverage the whole game

 

But if you had to break it down by coverages, by far the most used was a cover one robber press, or feigning back to cover 2 press 

 

Our outside receivers were manned up pretty much the entire game on the line of scrimmage. They were playing soft inside on the slot

 

 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Buffalo716

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Because KC is really good? They don’t have a good defense but when they get the lead, their pass rushers can tee off. It’s like the Colts with Manning. 
 

also, even though they aren’t head to head, it’s got to be really hard for a qb going against Mahomes. You know you need at least 30 and have no margin of error, so you force more. 

Started from the first play. He threw it directly at KC defender in 2 of 3 of our first drives. Both should have been picked, neither was. This was well prior to us needing to chase. He actually played better when we had to chase. 

[BillMafia716ix]

We were dominated up front and it threw off his rhythm. Also I think seeing Mahomes being so dominant on the other end got into his head a lil bit and he reverted back into hero ball Josh. He was making throws he wasn’t making all season. Taking 10-15 yard sacks when he simply could of just thrown the ball away. 
 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, KzooMike said:

Started from the first play. He threw it directly at KC defender in 2 of 3 of our first drives. Both should have been picked, neither was. This was well prior to us needing to chase. He actually played better when we had to chase. 

My brother’s theory was that Allen benefited from no fans this year. It didn’t happen much but you can seem he get a little flustered in some games. So given the stage, going against Mahomes, and the “biggest” crowd of the season, I think he got a little shook. But he will be better for it.