Offseason Primer Position Group: DL

[947]

One big thing for me regarding the D-Line is getting rid of the constant rotation. Having 8 guys playing around 50% of the snaps is moronic, nobody else does that. Play the best guys the majority of the game, and the backups get the scraps. How are Hughes or Oliver supposed to truly elevate their game when they're playing only 55%?

 

It's also gonna be a tough sell to a stud pass-rusher to come here, if they're not playing the entire game. McD needs to scrap this.

Edited January 25, 2021 by 947

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Victory Formation said:

Keep Oliver, Phillips, Zimmer, Epenesa and Johnson and dump the rest. Go after JJ Watt and draft a DE in the 1st or 2nd round.

JJ Watt is OLD

[MAJBobby]

41 minutes ago, 947 said:

One big thing for me regarding the D-Line is getting rid of the constant rotation. Having 8 guys playing around 50% of the snaps is moronic, nobody else does that. Play the best guys the majority of the game, and the backups get the scraps. How are Hughes or Oliver supposed to truly elevate their game when they're playing only 55%?

 

It's also gonna be a tough sell to a stud pass-rusher to come here, if they're not playing the entire game. McD needs to scrap this.

Sometime I think the rotation is out of necessity at the DE spot. If you had a complete stud that could take 80-90% of the snaps then the rotation works. I think  Bills DL is so individually flawed in spots the heavy rotation is needed to mask the flaws. 

[Buffalo Junction]

8 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Sometime I think the rotation is out of necessity at the DE spot. If you had a complete stud that could take 80-90% of the snaps then the rotation works. I think  Bills DL is so individually flawed in spots the heavy rotation is needed to mask the flaws. 

Agree. IIRC, Julius Peppers played 80-85% in that defense. 

[klos63]

3 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Defensive Line – This is an area that needs a lot of help IMO.  It was almost like the story of 3 seasons, beginning could not stop the run with anyone, end of the season got better against the run (I think the offense was the major reason why) and then playoffs back to struggling against the run.  But the point in the middle of the offense is the reason why I am not as worried about defending the run as others are.  It is a philosophical debate that happens every year, but IMO the offense putting up 30 a game (in those games we didn’t struggle against the run) do more in stopping the other teams run than plugging in fat guys to eat up space. If our offense is dictating pace and scoring at the clip they did at the end of the season, teams cannot run and try to keep with us that was evident in play.  With all that said though the DL underperformed all season, yes there was flashes but less and less as the season went on.  That is kind of where I am at looking at this group.  Last think I use all ages that they will be in the next season.  I think this is going to be the most in flux position group of the offseason, alot of money spent here with not the same comparable production.

 

Bills UFAs:

Trent Murphy, 31 yrs, DE – This is a let walk candidate and a major miss on Beane this offseason, it looks like the right move would have been extend Shaq Lawson (3/30) and replace Trent with him.  The Bills chose not to, instead they got an expensive spot player (I think a healthy scratch more than he impacted games).  Nothing changed with Murphy, he was still a liability setting the edge (something Shaq did well) and offered very spotty pressure as well.  Though I know I mention Shaq by no means am I a Shaq lover either, but he did play the run better than Murphy and offered the same threat in pass rush that Murphy added.  So long story short Murphy walks.

 

On Contract DE:

Mario Addison, 34 yrs, Cap hit: 10.1M, Savings: 6.1M: Had 30 tackles, 5 sacks, 8 QB hits.  Those Sack numbers are his worst in his career since 2013.  I do not think that performance justifies the cap hit.  That is roughly 2M a sack.  He is a good player to have in the rotation for closer to 5M AAV not 10M AAV.  At his age he could retire, but I also think there is no trade value with him.  Still under contract through 2022.  However, Bills built their contract to have the out year after year one, similar to Murphy’s was built.  He didn’t look explosive and seemed his one thing that was talked about his sack ability was not on display and he got more than enough snaps to make an impact just didn’t.  The DE group has a lot of those type DEs that are good players but nothing that scares anyone.  Also has a 800K bonus due on the 5th day of the new year, so I expect a early decision on Addison.  Though I also don’t think 800K is prohibitive to pick up and cut later in the offseason.

 

Jerry Hughes, 33 yrs, Cap Hit 9.45M, Savings 7.35M: Jerry had 29 Tackles, 4.5 Sacks, 2 recovered fumbles 11 QB hits.  As much as I hate to say this this is the second year with similar production from him.  He does get pressure and wins his pass rush rates at a high clip but hasn’t finished really well since 2018.  Jerry also hasn’t played the run well either in the last couple years.  Final year of his deal, I think there is a 3rd or 4th round trade value on him as well.  This specific player is going to be the one off hanging with nostalgia or moving based on production.  Reality 4.5 sacks a year from your premier pass rusher isn’t going to cut it.  If you think about it 19.5M Cap hit for 9 sacks.  Is what you get with Addison and Hughes.  I do understand rotation, however I also think a heavy rotation tells me you do not have a Stud.  Example if Bills had a Shaq Barrett, how often would he come off the field.  Now the performance aspect done, there is the leadership and emotional aspect that comes with Hughes, he is the leader of that DL, So I guess it comes down to how much the Bills value that.

 

A.J. Epenesa, 23 yrs, Cap Hit: 1.33: AJ had 1 sack, 14 tackles 4 hits.  He looked like he was a rookie, that went through a weird offseason and didn’t get much work, looked over matched and not strong enough during the season, though did get better.  I think the offseason really hurt him to start the season and why he started getting more time later in the season.  Still looks small, lost quickness (never had a lot to begin with).  I think the Bills need to decide what they want him to become, if he is a base 4-3 end (I think that is where he best fits) then they need him to add weight and become stronger (quickness becomes less an issue).  I say that because his pass rush moves he uses are those of a base DE, more power moves than speed moves.  I think he will be OK with a real offseason adding power.  I am not kidding myself I do not expect 10 plus sacks a year from him.  He started setting the edge well later in the season and was more effective against the run than he was in his pass rush and why I think he is your future 4-3 base end.

 

Darryl Johnson, 24 yrs, Cap Hit 789K:  I really like Johnson on this team, in terms of Defense he had 14 tackles, 1 Sack and 5 hits.  He is a good player on the base end against the Run, he did outplay Murphy when in the game and very similar numbers to AJ.  I think with Johnson and Epenesa as the rotation at the Base end position we are ok there, however they do need to up their sack production.  He also adds value on Special teams.  Looked like he added 2 counters to his pass rush plan but needs to get more effective there.  But I have no issue with him on this team as a liability, there could be an upgrade if needed, but I would look elsewhere (mainly the Premier DE on the other side)

 

Bryan Cox Jr (26) and Mike Love (27) (PS) – Nothing much to say about either being on the PS all year, will come to camp but IMO both are JAGs can add any two names and get he same.  I don’t see either on this team long term.

 

On Contract DT:

 

Quinton Jefferson, 28 yrs, Cap Hit 8M:  Savings 6.5M: - Performed right like he has his entire career, 23 tackles, 3 sacks and 6 QB hits.  So, he performed as he always has, if they bills are happy with that performance then that is what they bought.  I personally think he was paid in a structure to be better than he always has been. The Bills balked at going this high for Jordan Phillips who was a much more impactful player in Buffalo.  So, I do not think his production warrants an 8M price tag.  Just a reminder they balked at that price tag for Phillips coming off a season with 9.5 sacks, 25 tackles and 16 QB hits.

 

Vernon Butler, 27 yrs, Cap Hit 7.818M, Savings: 6.818M – Was completely ineffective with the Bills defense, has 0 Sacks, 18 tackles and 2 QB hits.  I am unsure what they thought they were getting with him.  His 6-sack year in Carolina was an anomaly compared to career.  Maybe he just doesn’t fit the scheme but absent 2019 year he performed like he did very year in Carolina.  Just not sure what they thought they were buying here for almost 8M, must correct that mistake.  I guess he did play out of position all year and that likely hurt.  But to me what I am seeing right now is this years play was his Norm in terms of production.

 

Star Lotulelei, 32 yrs, Cap Hit: 7.6M – First let me say he is NOT going to get cut Opted Out so nothing to go on this year.  The Dead cap is prohibitive, is he didn’t opt out then this offseason would be the out year, but he opted out and froze the contract.  Now I will say I have been a Star hater since the minute he was overpaid.  However, his last year playing he showed up and made me change my mind on him.  He is really good at what he does, and the cap hits (still a bit high IMO) are back to where they should be.  What SCARES me about Star is Bigger guy, Older, out of football for a year.  What is he?  And it is that specific reason I am worried about putting all my 1 TECH eggs in the Star basket.  But either way he is on the team next year, so just need to have a BU plan in place.

 

Ed Oliver, 23 yrs, Cap Hit: 5.335M – I am sure I am going to catch hell on this, but I think Ed Oliver improved from his rookie year by a lot.  The Stats are down, but he also had a tire fire next to him at 1 tech.  Heck they even have him playing 1 Tech and that isn’t not his game.  He was much more disruptive from the middle this year and did collapse pockets, that is what you want from him.  I think this was Eds best year, there was points in the game he was unblockable. If people thought they were getting Aaron Donald I feel for them because there is one Aaron Donald, but he did improve his technique on stacking Doubles and just anchoring.  I thought he was one of the Better players if not the best player on the DL this year.  I think he will be fine and by the time his extension is due will be talked about as a must re-sign. 

 

Harrison Phillips, 25 Cap Hit: 1.14M – Another I am going to likely catch crap for, but he regressed.  Multiple healthy scratches when Bills where trying to find anything at DT.  This was his chance to grab that DT spot and not let go but instead he was JAG.  Now I am not going to come down too hard on him as I am sure he wasn’t fully recovered from his Injury.  But I am not going to expect Phillips as part of my log term future I cannot replace, needs to make big strides next year.

 

Justin Zimmer, 28 Cap Hit: 920K – I get hit there was a big play in the NE game, and the hustle on the Taron Pick 6.  But other than that JAG.  I know people love the underdog story but he is not part of the long term future of the team.

 

Brandin Bryant, 27 (PS) – Blah going to be camp fodder.

 

I don’t post about possible trade TGTs (but No Kahlil Mack is not going to be traded to Buffalo)

 

Possible UFA TGTs (go with my top 4 or top 5)

 

DE: (yes there are more, but I have an age cutoff of normally 28 because I talk impact players)

Yannick Ngakoue, 26

Matt Judon, 29

Bud Dupree, 28

Jadeveon Clowney, 28

Solomon Thomas, 26 (prove it deal off injury)

 

DT:

Leonard Williams, 27

Sheldon Rankins, 27

Dalvin Thomlinson, 27

Larry Ogunjobi, 27

 

Ok to the point of what I would do.

 

I would Cut Jefferson, Butler, Addison, Hughes. Saving 26.7M in cap space as well as letting Murphy walk.  From there I sign Ngakoue (15M AAV) to get that impact pass rusher Then I shore up the 1Tech (getting ready to move on from Star after this year with Dalvin Thomlinson (9M AAV).  I think both at these AAVs are doable in the future years, and I think the market being depressed with a lot of teams in cap issues it is going to be a buyers’ market.  I think it is set up to get a good amount of impact players on value contracts (now that said I am sure the players see that as well and many may opt to one-year deals waiting on 2022 market when cap grows again after COVID).  Other possibility is to address in the draft, but with were we are picking I don’t see an impact pass rusher making it to where we are at this point.  But addressing all in the draft it brings the youth movement, but with that I think Hughes Stays, only way I am cutting him is with a younger player bought via UFA or trade.  So with the moves you take that 26.7M and add players younger and more dynamic at a cost of With this type of changes your starters look like this for 2021. Still gonna need to add a rookie DE in the draft somewhere or Cox / Love need to step up.  But without any other additions this is what the depth chart looks like.

 

DE – Ngakoue / Love / Cox

3 Tech – Oliver / Phillips / Zimmer

1 Tech – Thomlinson / Star / Bryant

DE - Epenesa / Darryl Johnson

 

Can replace Ngakoue or Thomlinson with different players, but with the window open I don’t think you can wait on a Rookie DE (need to get one in UFA IMO) and I don’t think it would be smart to rely on Star as the stud 1 Tech next year either.  This position group (probably with OL) is the likely the most interesting position group on the team, as there is a lot of money already spent there that they can get out of, but every time it leaves a hole, and this position group IMO is the one that needs the most work this offseason.

Really hard to disagree with anything you wrote. It seems like most of us saw what you saw, it's obvious our problems are with the line and pretty much need to clean house there.

[BuffaloRebound]

Hughes deserves to go out on his own terms.  If he still wants to play next year, give him a 1 year extension and convert his 2021 salary into a signing bonus to spread the cap hit.  Hughes at $5-6m cap hit is worth it.  The rest of the vets on the DL can go. 

[Mark Vader]

Great assessment as always @MAJBobby.

 

I agree with you for the most part on who should be cut, except for Hughes.

 

Adding Tomlinson would be fantastic, and I would be okay with going for Ngaukoye , but I would really like to see the Bills go after Dupree.

 

Drafting another DE in the early rounds would be wise too.

[Dkollidas]

I think Butler is gone for sure.
Addison I’d say 75% chance.

Hughes gets a one year extension lowering his 2021 cap hit. 
Star returns.

Phillips, Oliver and Jefferson return.

Zimmer fights for a job in camp.

Johnson and Epenesa return.

I believe they’ll look for a veteran UFA Defensive end, but I also see them looking to move up in round 1 and get a guy they like.

 

Rousseau seems to fit the bill. Ideal height/weight. Freak athlete. Just not sure about his off-field staff bc he did opt out, but if that causes him to slide Beane could use that as a reason to move up into say, the late teens or early 20’s for a guy they view as arguably a top-10 talent 

[Green Lightning]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Hughes deserves to go out on his own terms.  If he still wants to play next year, give him a 1 year extension and convert his 2021 salary into a signing bonus to spread the cap hit.  Hughes at $5-6m cap hit is worth it.  The rest of the vets on the DL can go. 

I agree with this. But I'm with the OP on the rest of his summation. Our DLine needs an infusion of size, power and talent.

[GunnerBill]

18 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Great post. One thing you should factor regarding Hughes, though: In the Bills postseason games in the last two seasons, he has 6 sacks in 4 games. He was awesome against Houston, and he actually had a very nice sack vs. Mahomes yesterday (maintaining his discipline and riding him to the sideline; although he could have easily gotten a PF there). He also made a huge play vs. Baltimore on the play before Johnson pick-six along with getting two sacks. My point is that if you're going to assess a player, include the postseason performances. I'd keep him.

 

I would keep Jerry one more year too.... but I really want him playing my pass rush package only. I think he needs to be the change up. Call it load management or whatever other fancy term there is for it..... but we know the Bills rotate heavily up front, they need to be even more judicious in their use of Hughes in 2021. 

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I would keep Jerry one more year too.... but I really want him playing my pass rush package only. I think he needs to be the change up. Call it load management or whatever other fancy term there is for it..... but we know the Bills rotate heavily up front, they need to be even more judicious in their use of Hughes in 2021. 

I think that sounds wise. He is always a guy who has played a lot of snaps, by the way. Just look at this season: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HughJe99.htm

[Coach Tuesday]

Good writeup.

 

Bad look for the new DL coach that he couldn't get ANYONE to improve their play, and several regressed.

[Success]

These threads are great.  And this is without doubt our biggest unit of need.

I 100% agree on Oliver. I think he just needs better players around him, but if you watch him play, he has a real aggressiveness to his game that isn't easy to find.  Whenever there is a tackle for a loss, he always seems to be making it or assisting on it.

 

[Solomon Grundy]

46 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Good writeup.

 

Bad look for the new DL coach that he couldn't get ANYONE to improve their play, and several regressed.

My grandfather used to tell me “you can’t turn **** to sugar”

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

If you could get a 3rd or 4th for Hughes, then would agree trade him, but doubt they could.  If they can't I'd keep him, maybe redo the contract to lessen the hit and add one year and in a way they could easily walk away from.  I think if you put Ngakoue on the other end, Hughes may all of a sudden look better too.  Also don't want to see so much change on line in one off season.

 

I'd let Addison and Butler both go, but would keep Jefferson as he can play both inside and out, plus was asked to play out of position most of year as they were juggling things all over due to Star's opt out.

 

If you're signing Thomlinson to replace Star, think I'd wait till next year and sign the best 1 technique FA in 2022 and save the money this year.

[No_Matter_What]

@MAJBobby Just want to say that I truly appreciate these threads. Its a great read.

 

I really like your projected DLine. But as you said later, I doubt they will go to next season with one new top DE and everybody else being so young, so I guess we keep Hughes even in your scenario. Ideally he could take pay cut since we is not worth 9,5M cap hit. 

 

In reality I also doubt they get rid of all other old DL, i.e. Butler, Addison and Jefferson. I guess somebody will stay - probably Addison, who has biggest dead cap. And if Addison stays, we will not have money on the other guys you mention (or anybody else of same quality).

Edited January 26, 2021 by No_Matter_What

[BuffaloRebound]

Hopefully Oliver takes another step next year, but we absolutely need to land a premier pass rusher this offseason to take the next step.  
Look at how KC is built.  Jones and Clark are in top 3 with Mahomes in highest paid on that team.  More than Hill and more than Kelce.  Paying 5-6 JAG’s on the DL $8m each is not a championship formula.  Pay 2 studs $20m and they’ll make everybody playing next to them better.  

[Reed83HOF]

I will read this later and missed this last night, you always do a great job here. Just hopped in to give the kudos @MAJBobby

[Reed83HOF]

3 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

I will read this later and missed this last night, you always do a great job here. Just hopped in to give the kudos @MAJBobby

Edit:
 Here you go @MAJBobby

Yeah you hit this out of the park. Only thing I would do different is keep Jerry. There is no need to create that hole yet and I think he can get it done with a little help from some new friends on the line. See below:

 

 

I know this isn't the LB thread, but the 5th year on Edmunds is about $13.5 and Milano is going to be about $13.5, not paying these 2 guys that much money. I would possibly look for an Edge at the LB position who can play the role like LorAx did. We need our Diggs of the defense to force teams to game plan against him. We can't just sit back in zone and get carved up. McD loves and wants pressure with the front 4 as much as possible, he says it every year and this group way under performed in that regards. Oliver will look much better with Star and other 1Ts on the roster.
 

 

 

Edited January 27, 2021 by Reed83HOF

[Reed83HOF]

Also,

 

As a Walder fan, here are his Adjusted Sacks based on who beat the defender first instead of cleaning it up for the 2020 NFL season