Offseason Primer Position Group: DL

[MAJBobby]

Defensive Line – This is an area that needs a lot of help IMO.  It was almost like the story of 3 seasons, beginning could not stop the run with anyone, end of the season got better against the run (I think the offense was the major reason why) and then playoffs back to struggling against the run.  But the point in the middle of the offense is the reason why I am not as worried about defending the run as others are.  It is a philosophical debate that happens every year, but IMO the offense putting up 30 a game (in those games we didn’t struggle against the run) do more in stopping the other teams run than plugging in fat guys to eat up space. If our offense is dictating pace and scoring at the clip they did at the end of the season, teams cannot run and try to keep with us that was evident in play.  With all that said though the DL underperformed all season, yes there was flashes but less and less as the season went on.  That is kind of where I am at looking at this group.  Last think I use all ages that they will be in the next season.  I think this is going to be the most in flux position group of the offseason, alot of money spent here with not the same comparable production.

 

Bills UFAs:

Trent Murphy, 31 yrs, DE – This is a let walk candidate and a major miss on Beane this offseason, it looks like the right move would have been extend Shaq Lawson (3/30) and replace Trent with him.  The Bills chose not to, instead they got an expensive spot player (I think a healthy scratch more than he impacted games).  Nothing changed with Murphy, he was still a liability setting the edge (something Shaq did well) and offered very spotty pressure as well.  Though I know I mention Shaq by no means am I a Shaq lover either, but he did play the run better than Murphy and offered the same threat in pass rush that Murphy added.  So long story short Murphy walks.

 

On Contract DE:

Mario Addison, 34 yrs, Cap hit: 10.1M, Savings: 6.1M: Had 30 tackles, 5 sacks, 8 QB hits.  Those Sack numbers are his worst in his career since 2013.  I do not think that performance justifies the cap hit.  That is roughly 2M a sack.  He is a good player to have in the rotation for closer to 5M AAV not 10M AAV.  At his age he could retire, but I also think there is no trade value with him.  Still under contract through 2022.  However, Bills built their contract to have the out year after year one, similar to Murphy’s was built.  He didn’t look explosive and seemed his one thing that was talked about his sack ability was not on display and he got more than enough snaps to make an impact just didn’t.  The DE group has a lot of those type DEs that are good players but nothing that scares anyone.  Also has a 800K bonus due on the 5th day of the new year, so I expect a early decision on Addison.  Though I also don’t think 800K is prohibitive to pick up and cut later in the offseason.

 

Jerry Hughes, 33 yrs, Cap Hit 9.45M, Savings 7.35M: Jerry had 29 Tackles, 4.5 Sacks, 2 recovered fumbles 11 QB hits.  As much as I hate to say this this is the second year with similar production from him.  He does get pressure and wins his pass rush rates at a high clip but hasn’t finished really well since 2018.  Jerry also hasn’t played the run well either in the last couple years.  Final year of his deal, I think there is a 3rd or 4th round trade value on him as well.  This specific player is going to be the one off hanging with nostalgia or moving based on production.  Reality 4.5 sacks a year from your premier pass rusher isn’t going to cut it.  If you think about it 19.5M Cap hit for 9 sacks.  Is what you get with Addison and Hughes.  I do understand rotation, however I also think a heavy rotation tells me you do not have a Stud.  Example if Bills had a Shaq Barrett, how often would he come off the field.  Now the performance aspect done, there is the leadership and emotional aspect that comes with Hughes, he is the leader of that DL, So I guess it comes down to how much the Bills value that.

 

A.J. Epenesa, 23 yrs, Cap Hit: 1.33: AJ had 1 sack, 14 tackles 4 hits.  He looked like he was a rookie, that went through a weird offseason and didn’t get much work, looked over matched and not strong enough during the season, though did get better.  I think the offseason really hurt him to start the season and why he started getting more time later in the season.  Still looks small, lost quickness (never had a lot to begin with).  I think the Bills need to decide what they want him to become, if he is a base 4-3 end (I think that is where he best fits) then they need him to add weight and become stronger (quickness becomes less an issue).  I say that because his pass rush moves he uses are those of a base DE, more power moves than speed moves.  I think he will be OK with a real offseason adding power.  I am not kidding myself I do not expect 10 plus sacks a year from him.  He started setting the edge well later in the season and was more effective against the run than he was in his pass rush and why I think he is your future 4-3 base end.

 

Darryl Johnson, 24 yrs, Cap Hit 789K:  I really like Johnson on this team, in terms of Defense he had 14 tackles, 1 Sack and 5 hits.  He is a good player on the base end against the Run, he did outplay Murphy when in the game and very similar numbers to AJ.  I think with Johnson and Epenesa as the rotation at the Base end position we are ok there, however they do need to up their sack production.  He also adds value on Special teams.  Looked like he added 2 counters to his pass rush plan but needs to get more effective there.  But I have no issue with him on this team as a liability, there could be an upgrade if needed, but I would look elsewhere (mainly the Premier DE on the other side)

 

Bryan Cox Jr (26) and Mike Love (27) - Both signed Futures Deal – Nothing much to say about either being on the PS all year, will come to camp but IMO both are JAGs can add any two names and get he same.  I don’t see either on this team long term.

 

On Contract DT:

 

Quinton Jefferson, 28 yrs, Cap Hit 8M:  Savings 6.5M: - Performed right like he has his entire career, 23 tackles, 3 sacks and 6 QB hits.  So, he performed as he always has, if they bills are happy with that performance then that is what they bought.  I personally think he was paid in a structure to be better than he always has been. The Bills balked at going this high for Jordan Phillips who was a much more impactful player in Buffalo.  So, I do not think his production warrants an 8M price tag.  Just a reminder they balked at that price tag for Phillips coming off a season with 9.5 sacks, 25 tackles and 16 QB hits.

 

Vernon Butler, 27 yrs, Cap Hit 7.818M, Savings: 6.818M – Was completely ineffective with the Bills defense, has 0 Sacks, 18 tackles and 2 QB hits.  I am unsure what they thought they were getting with him.  His 6-sack year in Carolina was an anomaly compared to career.  Maybe he just doesn’t fit the scheme but absent 2019 year he performed like he did very year in Carolina.  Just not sure what they thought they were buying here for almost 8M, must correct that mistake.  I guess he did play out of position all year and that likely hurt.  But to me what I am seeing right now is this years play was his Norm in terms of production.

 

Star Lotulelei, 32 yrs, Cap Hit: 7.6M – First let me say he is NOT going to get cut Opted Out so nothing to go on this year.  The Dead cap is prohibitive, is he didn’t opt out then this offseason would be the out year, but he opted out and froze the contract.  Now I will say I have been a Star hater since the minute he was overpaid.  However, his last year playing he showed up and made me change my mind on him.  He is really good at what he does, and the cap hits (still a bit high IMO) are back to where they should be.  What SCARES me about Star is Bigger guy, Older, out of football for a year.  What is he?  And it is that specific reason I am worried about putting all my 1 TECH eggs in the Star basket.  But either way he is on the team next year, so just need to have a BU plan in place.

 

Ed Oliver, 23 yrs, Cap Hit: 5.335M – I am sure I am going to catch hell on this, but I think Ed Oliver improved from his rookie year by a lot.  The Stats are down, but he also had a tire fire next to him at 1 tech.  Heck they even have him playing 1 Tech and that isn’t not his game.  He was much more disruptive from the middle this year and did collapse pockets, that is what you want from him.  I think this was Eds best year, there was points in the game he was unblockable. If people thought they were getting Aaron Donald I feel for them because there is one Aaron Donald, but he did improve his technique on stacking Doubles and just anchoring.  I thought he was one of the Better players if not the best player on the DL this year.  I think he will be fine and by the time his extension is due will be talked about as a must re-sign. 

 

Harrison Phillips, 25 Cap Hit: 1.14M – Another I am going to likely catch crap for, but he regressed.  Multiple healthy scratches when Bills where trying to find anything at DT.  This was his chance to grab that DT spot and not let go but instead he was JAG.  Now I am not going to come down too hard on him as I am sure he wasn’t fully recovered from his Injury.  But I am not going to expect Phillips as part of my log term future I cannot replace, needs to make big strides next year.

 

Justin Zimmer, 28 Cap Hit: 920K – I get hit there was a big play in the NE game, and the hustle on the Taron Pick 6.  But other than that JAG.  I know people love the underdog story but he is not part of the long term future of the team.

 

Brandin Bryant, 27 - Futures – Blah going to be camp fodder.

 

I don’t post about possible trade TGTs (but No Kahlil Mack is not going to be traded to Buffalo)

 

Possible UFA TGTs (go with my top 4 or top 5)

 

DE: (yes there are more, but I have an age cutoff of normally 28 because I talk impact players)

Yannick Ngakoue, 26

Matt Judon, 29

Bud Dupree, 28

Jadeveon Clowney, 28

Solomon Thomas, 26 (prove it deal off injury)

 

DT:

Leonard Williams, 27

Sheldon Rankins, 27

Dalvin Thomlinson, 27

Larry Ogunjobi, 27

 

Ok to the point of what I would do.

 

I would Cut Jefferson, Butler, Addison, Hughes. Saving 26.7M in cap space as well as letting Murphy walk.  From there I sign Ngakoue (15M AAV) to get that impact pass rusher Then I shore up the 1Tech (getting ready to move on from Star after this year with Dalvin Thomlinson (9M AAV).  I think both at these AAVs are doable in the future years, and I think the market being depressed with a lot of teams in cap issues it is going to be a buyers’ market.  I think it is set up to get a good amount of impact players on value contracts (now that said I am sure the players see that as well and many may opt to one-year deals waiting on 2022 market when cap grows again after COVID).  Other possibility is to address in the draft, but with were we are picking I don’t see an impact pass rusher making it to where we are at this point.  But addressing all in the draft it brings the youth movement, but with that I think Hughes Stays, only way I am cutting him is with a younger player bought via UFA or trade.  So with the moves you take that 26.7M and add players younger and more dynamic at a cost of With this type of changes your starters look like this for 2021. Still gonna need to add a rookie DE in the draft somewhere or Cox / Love need to step up.  But without any other additions this is what the depth chart looks like.

 

DE – Ngakoue / Love / Cox

3 Tech – Oliver / Phillips / Zimmer

1 Tech – Thomlinson / Star / Bryant

DE - Epenesa / Darryl Johnson

 

Can replace Ngakoue or Thomlinson with different players, but with the window open I don’t think you can wait on a Rookie DE (need to get one in UFA IMO) and I don’t think it would be smart to rely on Star as the stud 1 Tech next year either.  This position group (probably with OL) is the likely the most interesting position group on the team, as there is a lot of money already spent there that they can get out of, but every time it leaves a hole, and this position group IMO is the one that needs the most work this offseason.

Edited January 26, 2021 by MAJBobby

[dave mcbride]

Great post. One thing you should factor regarding Hughes, though: In the Bills postseason games in the last two seasons, he has 6 sacks in 4 games. He was awesome against Houston, and he actually had a very nice sack vs. Mahomes yesterday (maintaining his discipline and riding him to the sideline; although he could have easily gotten a PF there). He also made a huge play vs. Baltimore on the play before Johnson pick-six along with getting two sacks. My point is that if you're going to assess a player, include the postseason performances. I'd keep him.

[NewEra]

👍🏻 Thanks again.  Great stuff here.

 

regarding Ngakoue and Tomlinson.....I want no part of Ngakoue. Considering our cap situation. He would put us in a bind.  He’s not good vs the run and is a one trick pony imo. One of the better pass rushers.... but is he worth 20 mill a year??  I don’t think so

 

tomlinson. I’ll be shocked if the giants let him out of the building. I think they franchise him if they can’t lock him up.  He’s a monster and I would LOVE to get him. Perfect addition to this team. What will he command on the open market if the giants let him get there?  12-15 mill a year most likely imo. I know 1techs don’t get paid like that but Dj reader got 13.2 mill a year last offseason

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

👍🏻 Thanks again.  Great stuff here.

 

regarding Ngakoue and Tomlinson.....I want no part of Ngakoue. Considering our cap situation. He would put us in a bind.  He’s not good vs the run and is a one trick pony imo. One of the better pass rushers.... but is he worth 20 mill a year??  I don’t think so

 

tomlinson. I’ll be shocked if the giants let him out of the building. I think they franchise him if they can’t lock him up.  He’s a monster and I would LOVE to get him. Perfect addition to this team. What will he command on the open market if the giants let him get there?  12-15 mill a year most likely imo. I know 1techs don’t get paid like that but Dj reader got 13.2 mill a year last offseason

yeah I hear you in the Value. Both those I used strictly SPOTRAC Market Analysis for both of them as they have taken into account the depressed market due to the COVID Cap stuff. In a normal year I complete agree with your AAV assessments. I understand about Yannick run issues I am less concerned about that because of what I said with the Run Defense philosophical debate on how much facing an offense like we have helps the run defense. His signing for me was pure pressure based and once I saw the projected 15M AAV I was all

over it. That was my thinking on that signing. But I also understand your takes. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

I don’t want to replace our old, under achieving DL with someone else old, under achieving DL. 
 

I highly doubt they clean DL house, but I wouldn’t be upset if they did. Hughes, Addison, Butler, Murphy, Jefferson, Star all gone. Get some youth, size, and athleticism at the position. Shame Harrison Phillips isn’t the same player. 
 

Oliver is an athletic freak, Zimmer is a great athlete with heart, AJE hopefully will amount to something.

Edited January 25, 2021 by TheyCallMeAndy

[dave mcbride]

I felt that by the end of the season Leonard Williams was one of the 2 or 3 best interior linemen in the league -- just dominating. Apparently, the Giants have no intention of letting him walk.

[MAJBobby]

19 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Great post. One thing you should factor regarding Hughes, though: In the Bills postseason games in the last two seasons, he has 6 sacks in 4 games. He was awesome against Houston, and he actually had a very nice sack vs. Mahomes yesterday (maintaining his discipline and riding him to the sideline; although he could have easily gotten a PF there). He also made a huge play vs. Baltimore on the play before Johnson pick-six along with getting two sacks. My point is that if you're going to assess a player, include the postseason performances. I'd keep him.

Yeah Post season play comes into it also. If you had to tell me what I think they will do with Hughes he will be a Buffalo Bill next year. Might even get a little extension this offseason to drop cap hit by adding some voidable years. I went Bold in my thinking though so went and bought the best pure pass rusher and a top end 1 Tech. 

Just now, dave mcbride said:

I felt that by the end of the season Leonard Williams was one of the 2 or 3 best interior linemen in the league -- just dominating. Apparently, the Giants have no intention of letting him walk.

Agree and why I think Thomlinson will hit the market. Only signing one of the two IMO. 

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I don’t want to replace our old, under achieving DL with someone else old, under achieving DL. 
 

I highly doubt they clean DL house, but I wouldn’t be upset if they did. Hughes, Addison, Butler, Murphy, Jefferson, Star all gone. Get some youth, size, and athleticism at the position. Shame Harrison Phillips isn’t the same player. 
 

Oliver is an athletic freak, Zimmer is a great athlete with heart, AJE hopefully will amount to something.

Star can’t be cut.  We don’t save anything iirc.

 

as a Jerry loyalist, I don’t think there much of a chance we cut him AND Addison AND Jefferson.  Going into the offseason with Epenesa and Johnson as our only DEs would be a HUGE mistake imo

[Bangarang]

If there was a way to dump everyone but Oliver I’d be all for it. It’s a sad group of guys we have up front. 

[MasterStrategist]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

yeah I hear you in the Value. Both those I used strictly SPOTRAC Market Analysis for both of them as they have taken into account the depressed market due to the COVID Cap stuff. In a normal year I complete agree with your AAV assessments. I understand about Yannick run issues I am less concerned about that because of what I said with the Run Defense philosophical debate on how much facing an offense like we have helps the run defense. His signing for me was pure pressure based and once I saw the projected 15M AAV I was all

over it. That was my thinking on that signing. But I also understand your takes. 

Great job OP!  Really like your thorough assessments and opinions.

 

I think the DL is in a similar spot to what the OL was a few yrs back, a bunch of JAGs.  Hughes is a great dude, but past his prime, Oliver and Epenesa are the building blocks. 

 

That said, I think like they did at OL, they must blow up the rest of this group and start fresh.  

 

I truly think Edmunds, Oliver will blossom with some surrounding talent on the dline.

 

If you look at the playoff teams, this was likely the worst dline of nfl qualifiers.  Pretty obvious in the Colts game and Chiefs game that our dline was severely outplayed

[SCBills]

There will be some decent players available that normally wouldn't with the cap situation.  

 

I'd have zero issue taking a flame thrower to this DL and revamping the line around Oliver, Star, Harry, AJ & Johnson.  

 

Jefferson and Butler didn't work out and Hughes/Addison are too heavy a cap hit for what will likely be stagnant or declining production. 

[John from Riverside]

I knew our DL didnt play well but when you break it down like that it is downright depressing

 

In terms of basic comments we need someone who will tie up blockers so Ed Oliver can be the player we needed him to be when we drafted him.......a guy that plays on their side of the LOS regardless of how good the OL is of the team we face......we MUST get the DL into a position where we can get pressure with 4 down linemen and not having to blitz if we EVER want a chance of beating Mahommes.....which has now become our unicorn.

 

Mahommes came out of last nights game healthier then when he went into the game.....that is a bad thing

[maryland-bills-fan]

Somehow we have maybe two DL and a bunch of JAGs.  Got us one game from the superbowl. 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

@MAJBobby, I agree with your assessment of Ed Oliver. If he had a bonafide 1 tech next to him he would’ve been more impactful. I’d like to go in the draft and get him one instead of dropping money on a FA. There is a plethora of young, powerful big guys in the draft that can come in and contribute just by occupying blockers. Marvin Wilson, Jordan Davis, Tedarrell Slaton all have the size, the motor and health are the questions. I’m a big fan of Daviyon Nixon and Lorenzo Neal Jr. Neal because of his bloodlines and Nixon because of his motor. I’d keep Hughes and put the youngsters around him

[billsfan89]

I doubt they clean house at D-line. I think they cut Jefferson or Butler (more likely Butler) and restructure multiple players along that line. Star comes back which should help them get Ed Oliver back to a more pure pass rushing role, I also am hoping that H. Phillips comes back to the form he flashed in 2019 which will help the interior rotation. The interior rotation will be Star, Ed, H.Phillips and either Jefferson or Butler to rotate in. I am comfortable with that. 

 

DE is another story. I think they have to ask Hughes and Addision to take paycuts, AJ will have to step up and fill a role as a rotational player they need to let Murphy walk and find a way to get another prime time DE. I likely see the defense spending the 30th pick on an edge rusher or trading that pick for a proven edge rusher. This team can't win with Hughes and Addision anchoring the edge rush.

 

So the D-line needs a front line edge rusher and some reshuffling along the interior to make room for Star. But other than that the core of the D-line will be similar. 

[ghostwriter]

Keep Oliver, Phillips, Zimmer, Epenesa and Johnson and dump the rest. Go after JJ Watt and draft a DE in the 1st or 2nd round.

[y2zipper]

The risk associated with building around a few high profile players and lacking depth is that you become the Rams. Once a few guys get beat up, you don't have players and you lose.

 

That being said, there is very much a need for spending money on the defensive line because there's a Super Bowl window and it's right now. They just need a more consistent pass rush with the front four elevate that defense. It was something they got with the rotation last year and something they lost when that rotation went away and guys got older.

 

I'm very much in favor of the sort of reallocation of money described here. Cut the medium size contracts that save money and use that money to bring in an impact player or two and some depth.

[SCBills]

Just now, y2zipper said:

The risk associated with building around a few high profile players and lacking depth is that you become the Rams. Once a few guys get beat up, you don't have players and you lose.

 

That being said, there is very much a need for spending money on the defensive line because there's a Super Bowl window and it's right now. They just need a more consistent pass rush with the front four elevate that defense. It was something they got with the rotation last year and something they lost when that rotation went away and guys got older.

 

I'm very much in favor of the sort of reallocation of money described here. Cut the medium size contracts that save money and use that money to bring in an impact player or two and some depth.

KC’s DL doesn’t have much behind Jones and Clark.  
 

Regardless... our defense was so bad for the first half of the season, almost lost us the Colts WC game and were executed on live tv by the Chiefs.  
 

Credit where it’s due for the Ravens win, but we can take a flamethrower to this defense for all I care.  They were a liability this season... a high paid, heavily invested one at that.  

[Big Blitz]

You don't need elite to be SB champion.  But you can't be average.  I think we're average but we have a very good secondary.  We can be elite best D in the league if we upgrade the front 4 which I think is one of the worst in the league.    

 

The whole D can use an honest evaluation.  2019 was a bit of a mirage (but it was better than this year's D) we got lucky playing some really bad QBs. 

 

And then this year:

 

Vs Denver and Lock

Vs Ben and the Steelers that quit

Vs a joke of a Patriots offense twice and the first time they almost ran it straight to a win 

Vs Tua

Vs The Jets debacle twice

Vs Nick Mullins

 

How were we against 

 

Cardinals 

Rams

Seahawks (Cee Dee something was their RB that day)

Chiefs 

Titans (excused due to injuries I guess)

Dolphins with Fitz

Colts 

Chargers 

 

Ravens with a Lamar gift and 30 mph winds is the performance of the year but you have to agree they moved the ball even with the backup pretty easily, stalled, missed FGs, or threw a horrendous pick 6.  And that team isn't going anywhere.

 

The AFC is loaded with good QBs and more to come.  Our division might have Watson and Stafford in it in 2021.  

 

We need to be able to get after the QB with our front 4.  Two new starters minimum.

 

This needs to be priority number 1.   

Edited January 25, 2021 by Big Blitz

[John from Riverside]

52 minutes ago, Process said:

Jefferson and Butler played for the bills this year? I don't recall hearing their names once. Weird. 

 

Beane needs to stop signing all these average, 0 impact players. Instead of giving medium sized contracts to 10 different guys (jefferson, addison, butler, Kroft, murphy, norman, etc etc), that do nothing but eat up a ton of cap space, go sign a couple studs and fill the depth with some cheap youth with potential. 

 

Even at 30, the bills should consider trading down this year and getting some extra picks. Hopefully we can get a couple for Frazier as well. 

 

Josh and Diggs alone are enough to get this team to the playoffs the next 5 years. To win a superbowl we need to go through a bit of a rebuild. 

You dont "rebiuld" when you are one game from the Super Bowl......you tweek

 

And while I def agree with you on getting Jags for the DL......I disagree with the "trading down bit" that is the equivilant of getting a bunch of jags.....instead get aggressive and trade up for guys you believe to be impact players.