So...are Edmunds and Oliver good?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, Reader said:

In the past few weeks I have seen the gamut of "these guys are busts" to "they have been out of position" to "they (mainly Oliver) are on the verge of breaking out". What are your assessment of these two, maybe, core players to build around? 

 

There's an interesting thread of film cuts from Erik Turner (cover1):

 

You have to look around through comments and other posts but if you're interested, it'll get you started.

[WideNine]

On 1/25/2021 at 10:40 AM, Adamb412 said:

edmunds is young the dude is still growing.  I wasn't that much of a fan of Oliver when drafted at a DT. he is too small as a DT.  I don't know why they don't try him at DE

 

I think the young excuse is wearing a bit thin on Edmunds. The last time I checked on per-defensive-snap rankings for LBs I don't think he or Milano cracked the 1st page of 50 and there were at least 4-5 in that top 50 who were the same age or younger. Dodson was actually ranked higher than both, but I can only assume he did well with the very limited reps he has had against just a few teams where the Bills had him in the lineup.

 

There are times he can play downhill - I have seen it. But the way they have him roam the field to diagnose/breakup plays I feel like he is not the best fit because he is not adept at coverage. He easily falls for fakes and misdirection so he is out of position, he also struggles mightily to get off of blocks, and often plays on his heels waiting for plays to come to him then misses tackles. His athleticism and speed allows him to make up ground once a play has already gained yards, but leaves me wondering what if...

 

He passes the eye test, he is smart, a good locker room and team player, and he makes the defensive calls. I just don't see the instincts and aggressiveness needed in that role and I could be wrong. I am a big advocate of watching a player to see how they are trending and once you feel they have plateaued, then you decide if you are going to invest longer term.

 

He may need more runway to get to where we need him to be, but I am not in the camp that thinks he is not a player that the Bills could not upgrade.

 

 

I don't think PFF has a lot of bias around linebackers and this is what they said about Edmunds and Milano going into this 2020 season (seems fairly spot on):

 

The Bills have revamped their linebacking corps over the past three years, with Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano slated for much of the work once again in 2020. Edmunds is an outstanding athlete who continues to improve, ranking 14th in run stop percentage last year. While he made a plethora of tackles, Edmunds also missed 17 of his attempts during the regular season, sixth-most in the league, and posted a 52.2 coverage grade.

 

Milano was outstanding in coverage last season, as his 83.3 grade ranked fourth among linebackers and he allowed just 6.6 yards per reception, fifth-best in the league. He had tackling issues, as well, finishing with 16 misses during the regular season while posting just a 39.5 run-defense grade, sixth-worst in the league. A.J. Klein comes over from the Saints to add depth, though he’s graded in the 40.0s in three of his past four NFL seasons.

 

The Bills have a solid linebacker unit capable of matching up with running backs and flying around the field. The group just needs to cut back on its missed tackles to take the next step in 2020.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 27, 2021 by WideNine

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I never had a problem with Lotulelei because he was just a role player doing what he was asked. From a 1-tech that's fine. Edmunds is the QB of the defense. It isn't enough to say "well he's filling his role." We need a difference maker there. He either needs to make game changing plays from time to time or he needs to be consistently good at the little things.

Edmunds is Mark Barron.

[BillMafia716ix]

Oliver’s only problem is that people expected him to be Aaron Donald. Aaron Donald is a once in a lifetime type player. He’ll be much better with Star back next season. Also think they should move him around a lil bit on the DLine. 
 

Tremaine Edmunds is just frustrating to watch sometimes. He has all the physical tools but he doesn’t play like his size. His instincts just aren’t there and I don’t think that something you learn. He’s just an average player IMO

Edited January 26, 2021 by BillMafia716ix

[Thurman#1]

Yes.

 

Very solid. They're both building blocks. That's not the problem.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Okay here's a better way of making my point - what was Edmunds's signature play this year? When has he made a play that the defense needed to be made? No big hits to force an incompletion or fumble, no interceptions, no big stops in big moments. If you made a highlight reel of him this year it would be totally normal plays that MLBs are expected to make. He has shown flashes of being competent. No flashes of greatness. Feels like a guy where you'll always be saying "can't wait until next year..." until it's too late.

 

 

Took me nearly a full second to come up with the goal-line run stop on 4th down against the Niners.

 

He makes plays, Hap. If you're going to forget, who's that on?

 

More, how many times has a QB looked in the middle and held the ball, putting him in jeopardy? Hard to say, but this defense is one that works as a unit, in scheme.

[BobbyC81]

12 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

Edmunds should have never been an MLB.  His tape from college all screamed OLB.

 

Oliver needs a big 1T to be effective.  Nothing wrong with that, but when Star opted out, the GM failed him by not filling that role.  I would love to draft a true MLB and letting Milano walk to move Edmunds over.

The GM added Jefferson and Butler and later Zimmer.  They just didn’t work out.

[machine gun kelly]

It’s hard to assess Oliver without having Star next to him.   Edmunds played terrible when hurt, but was a disappointment Sunday night.

 

Sal mentioned two months ago, Edmunds needed a guy like Star as he wasn’t prepared to take OG’s.

 

Both of these guys are contingent upon a large 1 technique DT.

 

It is definitely possible these guys could be busts.  We’ll probably know next year.  Not a great answer, but whenever people say cut this guy or that guy, then the important question that has to be attainable is “who do you replace him if he’s gone?”

 

You have 7 draft picks, and $ will be tight next year.  One can’t operate like it’s a normal off season and the cap will grow like normal to $210 mil.  Think like the worst at $175 mil.  Without cutting someone (because if you cut someone who is his replacement and for how much), we have $2.6 mil. to spend and Spotrac makes that assumption with approximately $178 mil. cap.

 

That is why a lot of suggestions aren’t looking at the whole picture.  It’s easy to say we should cut this person or this person, and replace with this one or that one.

 

Bottom line is I trust Beane and he’ll figure it out with his team.  The SI article the other day makes it very clear the margin for error is small, and will get smaller. The reason we had a drought is previous administrations tried quick fixes for two decades and made poor choices in drafting.

 

Just prepare yourself we are not going to make big splashes in FA.  It’s not going to happen.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I know it’s probably a pipe dream but it worked for us once with Hughes. Edmunds seems to have a bit of a league wide respect. I say try to trade him while his perceived value is high. Maybe you can swap him for a pass rusher and get lucky. Start over at his position. Bring back Milano. I personally like Dodson. Maybe even give him a look for 1 season or just draft a true nasty MLB that is just a monster out there. Edmunds looks like he’s that guy standing in pads but he doesn’t play that way. I’m not interested in waiting anymore and I’m absolutely not interested in giving him a second contact. I’d much rather use that money on Milano and draft another guy to do the things the Edmunds should have been doing since year 2.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

Edmunds is Mark Barron.

 

 

 

Yes.

 

And apples are hand grenades.

[Thurman#1]

30 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

It’s hard to assess Oliver without having Star next to him.   Edmunds played terrible when hurt, but was a disappointment Sunday night.

 

Sal mentioned two months ago, Edmunds needed a guy like Star as he wasn’t prepared to take OG’s.

 

Both of these guys are contingent upon a large 1 technique DT.

 

It is definitely possible these guys could be busts.  We’ll probably know next year.  Not a great answer, but whenever people say cut this guy or that guy, then the important question that has to be attainable is “who do you replace him if he’s gone?”

 

You have 7 draft picks, and $ will be tight next year.  One can’t operate like it’s a normal off season and the cap will grow like normal to $210 mil.  Think like the worst at $175 mil.  Without cutting someone (because if you cut someone who is his replacement and for how much), we have $2.6 mil. to spend and Spotrac makes that assumption with approximately $178 mil. cap.

 

That is why a lot of suggestions aren’t looking at the whole picture.  It’s easy to say we should cut this person or this person, and replace with this one or that one.

 

Bottom line is I trust Beane and he’ll figure it out with his team.  The SI article the other day makes it very clear the margin for error is small, and will get smaller. The reason we had a drought is previous administrations tried quick fixes for two decades and made poor choices in drafting.

 

Just prepare yourself we are not going to make big splashes in FA.  It’s not going to happen.

 

 

Nice post.

 

We are indeed unlikely to make big splashes with our cap as it is and guys to re-sign. There are some guys to cut but they would then have to be replaced, which costs money that people never include in their "I love this guy so what can I do to make that work?" calculations.

 

And this defense is scheme-based rather than star-based. They work as a unit, and do need a big space-eating 1-tech to maximize them.

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

Edmunds should have never been an MLB.  His tape from college all screamed OLB.

 

Oliver needs a big 1T to be effective.  Nothing wrong with that, but when Star opted out, the GM failed him by not filling that role.  I would love to draft a true MLB and letting Milano walk to move Edmunds over.

 

 

 

His tape did scream OLB  ... ... ... ... to you. And some other Buffalo fans.

 

It really should be obvious though, to anybody, that it really did not scream OLB to McDermott and Beane. Or to the people who've made Edmunds a Pro Bowler the last two years. Or really to much of anyone but a few obsessed fans on boards and such. Thing is, you guys aren't the decision-makers, Beane and McDermott are.

 

And thank goodness for that.

 

Another example of missing the point is thinking there were people around to fill the role of Lotulelei when the optouts happened. Lotulelei opted out on July 28th, when we didn't have much left on the cap, when camp was almost here, and when the good players were long since on other rosters. There wasn't a good move to be made for replacing a guy with an unusual skill like Star.

 

It's like saying that when the girl you thought you had picked up went home without you at 4:30 a.m., you should have replaced her with another stunning single woman from that same bar at that time. Good luck with that.

 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Thurman#1

[PaoloBillsFanFromItaly]

Edmunds bad

Oliver good

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nice post.

 

We are indeed unlikely to make big splashes with our cap as it is and guys to re-sign. There are some guys to cut but they would then have to be replaced, which costs money that people never include in their "I love this guy so what can I do to make that work?" calculations.

 

And this defense is scheme-based rather than star-based. They work as a unit, and do need a big space-eating 1-tech to maximize them.

Thanks Thurmon, amd feel free to plagiarize as I don’t want to be the only one beating the common sense drum (besides you’re more eloquent than I ).  BTW, I really liked you’re girl in the bar analogy as it was spot on.  I remember back then there was only one guy we could’ve plucked away from Washington especially as he was cheap, about $800,000. / yr. for two years, was a 5th round pick and was rated as the 5th best 1 technique in the NFL his first two years per PFF.  It was Tim Settle.  My reasoning in July was Rivera and McD are tight, he wouldn’t be that high if a draft trade, and I’m not even saying he is as good as Star.  What I am saying is he could’ve plugged hole.  He weighs 308 lbs.  Maybe they didn’t think he was worth it, but it was I believe either a Washington or Syracuse paper that made some good points on Settle.  Washington is one of the deepest in their defensive line talent.

 

Its water under the bridge now, and Thurmon you’re timeline was perfect on the summer.

 

Bottom line is we are going to read about 500 more posts over the off season about this guy that guy to add an this and that guy to cut.  Just please if anyone is going to make all kinds of suggestions, please consider the implications of what I typed above.  I love the enthusiasm from fellow Bills fans as long as you can reason through how it can be done logically, and within our means.

 

Ther are a lot of very smart guys on this board so if you look at losses, replacements, costs, what we lose vs. what we gain, I’m so open to reasoned opinions.  
 

Thanks for listening to another very frustrated Bills fan, but a very proud one of this team, it’s players, coaches, management and owners.  We really do have something special here.

[No_Matter_What]

I haven't read the whole thread and I definitely do not feel capable of evaluating players myself, so I will not comment on both players. My perception is that Edmunds is really inconsistent and maybe playing out of position and Oliver is too soon to judge, even though so far he is definitely not a game wrecker we were hoping him to be.

 

What I am really sure of is that if anybody Beane and McDermott are 100% aware of issues with our defense, specifically front 7. There were changes compared to last year at DL, and most of them don't seem to pan out. They are aware of this and I am pretty sure they will try to fix it. There will be lot of changes in the DL.

 

As for Edmunds, it seems that most of you would move him to OLB. If all of you are right, I am sure that McD sees it too. He will not hesitate to make a change - see Ford, Cody as an example. Once they came to conclusion that he might be more efficient at G, they moved him there, even thought they clearly drafted him as RT. It took much longer time with Edmunds, but it will happen if thats the solution.

 

So my guess that linebackers issue will be addressed this offseason. We will draft somebody pretty high this year, or do something at FA. It is pretty clear that everything they do will be made to make sure that we have better chance to beat the Chiefs, and its clear that one of these things is stopping Kelce. They see its not working with Milano/Edmunds and they will do whatever they can to fix it.

[davefan66]

I don’t think we can underestimate the loss of Star Lotulelei this season.

 

With a run stuffer in place, that gives our Edge rushers and LB’s the ability to focus on their jobs.  I think we need more than just Star, but having a run stuffer would have been helpful.

 

Oliver is and will continue to be good.  I like Edmunds, but he needs to sharpen his game.  Many times takes the wrong gap or is slow to read the play. Kid can be excellent, needs to get better.

[colin]

two things

 

1) the athletic has had multiple GMs and talent scouts opine that the new ideal way of building a roster is to get actual super duper stars and fill in the rest of the roster w youth and role players.  This is in contrast to the i suppose new england model of having superior role players up and down the roster and just coaching them up into a force.  the issue with that is you can't pay them all, and your run into a place where you have a young guy who can't make the team, although he might grow into a better player, because you've stuck your money into depth and breadth instead of a few sure fire stars (us trading teller is an example of that.  if we had a star T opposite dawkins, we would have kept cheaper draft guys and see if one sprouts).  the Rams are a good example of this, they have just super duper studs at DT, CB, and aim to get that at a couple other positions, and the rest of the team is pretty fungible.  they aren't as good as they were a couple years ago, but even with goff hurt, and not being worth his contract, it is still a pretty nasty team.  KC is the most shining example, two just stud DL, one sick S, and the rest of the d are JAGS and they are pretty sick.  on O, it's one solid LT (first overall pick, but not the best), top qb, and two weapons our d didn't even begin to stop.  they ripped us with some no one back up RB because of the threat of the rest of the talent.

 

2) we have a serious issue with our defensive scheme.  we have the talent and the coaching to shut down baltimore in the wind, who only do one thing, but against any multiple O, we just struggle.  they can play very solid vs a team like indy for 3 quarters, and just fold with a couple bad play calls late, or they can get ultra trucked vs KC.  with who we have playing and our scheme, it's nothing but a guessing game, and against a talented team and/or a good coach, we don't take things away effectively.  we sort of defend everything by design and try to tailor it play by play, and anyone getting wiped or out of position and we just get ripped on runs or missed tackles on a regular basis.  they have played much better than the first 6 weeks, but if you look back at those games, the degree of difficulty they pose to opponents is simply not high.

 

contrast that w a baltimore or KC D, they are both capable of re tooling and shutting down what they want vs an opponent, given them a chance to win.  i really hope the ship can get righted, but the combo of who we are paying a tone of money too, and just zilch depth at LB and CB exposes us in a big way.

 

both edmunds and oliver have lots of potential to end up as solid starters in the NFL for 10 years, but edmunds in particular is simply ineffective.  he can be manipulated by a well run O to go where he leaves a hole, and does not make dynamic plays getting off blocks, breaking up passes, or blowing up runs.

 

imo, to get past KC, we need to totally retool our DL, and rescheme our D.  if you watch what we did on D the last 2 seasons, while we did get trucked the odd time, the d as a unit was much more consistent and was doing so with much poorer special teams and offensive play.

[Coach Tuesday]

I don’t see them completely changing their defensive scheme, @colin

[colin]

oh, i agree with you from a macro level coach tuesday, but having 3 linebackers as base vs johson, who is sick coming forward but just cannot cover 1 on 1, would be a huge help letting us disguise and dictate.  also, and i should have made this clearer, i don't mean going to a 2 gap 3-4 or something wild, i mean lining up and disguising coverage more different ways so that we have a shot vs a kc and can not be an open book.  it could also let us bump guys, switch off, etc without just being beat before the ball is snapped.

 

I think for this to happen, we need to hit a home run or two on new people.  pass rusher, another db, either a new MLB or OLB, something i think can be added to make this work.

 

if you look at how our d was 2 years ago, and how the carolina d under mcd was at their best, they made everything opponents did much much harder.

[Coach Tuesday]

I guess another way of saying it is: if Edmunds is “perfect for this defense,” maybe the defense needs to change.