League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Billl said:

 

I don’t care who my OLBs are if I’ve got Ray Lewis at MLB.  I’ll take him and two water boys over three Matt Milanos.  I will grant that it takes a lot of job security to draft that way, though.  

 

Indeed. And it is a balance. You can't swing for the fences every time. There is nothing wrong in principle with safe high floor, low ceiling guys. But you have to consider where is my roster at, how do I look not just this year at the premium spots but how do I look in two years time there and how does that needle move if I go a safe pick here vs if I take a shot. I don't pretend all this is easy but the two running back picks in particular I think were just strategically bad decisions. Cody Ford might have been to an extent too but he was also in part a bad talent evaluation because make no mistake they drafted him to play tackle. But if you are going to pick a running back in the first two days it better be a special guy. A game changer. We picked two guys who are just never going to be that. I actually defend the Knox pick much more. He hasn't really broken out at this stage and has had issues with drops but Knox is a high ceiling athlete. If he had picked up the nuances of tight end his ceiling IMO was as high as TJ Hockenson who went #8 in that same draft. Even if Knox ends up missing there was an element of trying to find a diamond in the rough there who could have high potential that I applaud.

[GoBills808]

If you think Milano in the fifth isn’t an enormous win I don’t know what to tell you

[Billl]

2 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

So you tell me it’s a terrible metric, but you STILL don’t understand how it works. It’s based on the value on the board in the round that the player was drafted. 

 

You also don’t even have enough insight to tell me about a draft class you brought up specifically.

 

I never said it was perfect, I said it was better than what you’re doing above. Putting your own context on the Chiefs draft class. It takes subjectivity out of the equation and uses AV, a metric that‘s used by people who get paid to cover football, use to compare players. It goes a step further and shows how much value you’re extracting from the draft. 
 

I once again invite you to come up with a better way to objectively measure performance in the draft. 

There was a football game played last night.

 

Epenesa had one tackle and no other stats.

Bass kicked 4 FGs and missed a PAT.

Davis had 3 targets without a catch.

If any other rookies played, they didn’t register on the stat sheet.

 

Edwards-Elaire  had a rushing TD.

Sneed played lockdown coverage, made 5 tackles, and had a 15 yard sack.

Danna and Wharton each had a tackle.

Townsend had a punt and held 5 PATs and a FG.

 

Not super interested in any metric that favors the first group.

 

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

There was a football game played last night.

 

Epenesa had one tackle and no other stats.

Bass kicked 4 FGs and missed a PAT.

Davis had 3 targets without a catch.

If any other rookies played, they didn’t register on the stat sheet.

 

Edwards-Elaire  had a rushing TD.

Sneed played lockdown coverage, made 5 tackles, and had a 15 yard sack.

Danna and Wharton each had a tackle.

Townsend had a punt and held 5 PATs and a FG.

 

Not super interested in any metric that favors the first group.

 

So instead of a metric that takes into account an entire season’s worth of performance, you’re going to focus on the performance from one game to make a determination?

 

The metric isn’t stagnant either, as time goes on it will change as player perform, but as of right now it shows that Buffalo got more contribution from their draft class in 2020 than KC over the 16 game regular season. 

I made it clear early on that 2020 was pretty unstable and shouldn’t be looked at too heavily, I only included it because someone asked for it. The drafts with multiple years are much more reliable, you’re hyper focused on this year and throwing out that it does a pretty good job with previous years drafts.

 

You’re also listing two players for the Chiefs that they didn’t draft this year... Wharton and Townsend were UDFA. 
 

I’m not debating that CEH, Gay, Sneed and Danna were contributors, but I can probably tell you why at the moment it liked the Bills draft class just slightly more. 
 

In just raw AV for the season the Chiefs class came in at 18 and the Bills draft class came in at 15, but when I did this initial analysis a month ago it became very apparent it wasn’t the most accurate way to see how much value you extracted from a player, I felt the best way was to compare AV to the value of a pick in the round the player was drafted. Admittedly it’s not perfect,  and I want to continue to improve things when I have the time. 

 

CEH has a very good season. He finished with 8 AV and netted the Chiefs positive value in the round at 2.1

 

It looks like Gay was a rotational piece/hurt for a majority of the year. He needed the Chiefs positive value at 0.2 but because he rarely played more than 20% of the snaps he wasn’t able to do enough to be valued as a major contributor. 
 

Niang was net -2.4 net value because he didn’t contribute this year at all. Not getting any value from a 3rd round pick hurts. This obviously changes long term.
 

Sneed was netted then positive value at 1.6... it looks like he REALLY started coming in at the end of the season after coming back from an injury in the second half of the season. AV can only account for the games he played, so the longer he plays and makes an impact, the more likely it is that he’s accurately reflected here. 
 

Danna netted them positive value at 0.8 it seems like he was just a rotational piece but did make some plays so he gets them positive value because it’s more than a 5th round pick was expected to do. 
 

Last pick was Keyes and he netted them 0.3 in positive value. Seems like he was up and down off the PS all year and got a nod for playing fairly well against the Chargers in week 17. 

That’s have you arrive at the +2.6 TOT_NETAV for the Chiefs in 2020. Like I said, it’s not perfect and will undoubtedly change the more this draft class changes. That’s why this year is pretty unstable, but right now it reflects what the team gained over the course of 16 games.

 

The Bills draft class breaks down like this...

 

Epenesa was negative value for the Bills in round 2 at -1.8

He didn't do enough this year as a rotational piece and his performance at this point wasn't worthy of a RD2 pick.

 

Moss was positive value for the Bills in RD3 at 2.6

He was a solid contributor and have 5 AV on the season, his production wasn't quite that of CEH but in 13 games he put up decent numbers with 576 total yards and 5 TDs for the Bills. Although CEH had the better season and that was reflected, this takes into account draft position and the Bills get decent value here for taking a RB with half the production 2 rounds later than CEH.

 

Gabe Davis was pretty big in RD4 with 4.6 net value. 

35/600/7 from a 4th round pick is pretty good value here, so the Bills are rewarded for that. 

 

Jake Fromm in RD5 dings the Bills -1.2 for obvious reasons

 

Tyler Bass gets them 1.6 in positive value in RD6

4th highest scorer in the league, gives them modest value here.

 

Isaiah Hodgins in RD6 dings them -1.4 in RD6 because he didn't play

 

Dane Jackson in RD7 gets them 0.3... very similar situation as Keyes. Up and down but got a little reward for slight contributions. 

 

That is how you arrive at the Bills 4.8 TOT_NETAV.

 

The further you can go back it does a good job of reflecting value in 2017 and 2018. It’s not stagnant. 

Edited January 26, 2021 by JGMcD2

[Billl]

27 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

So instead of a metric that takes into account an entire season’s worth of performance, you’re going to focus on the performance from one game to make a determination?

 

The metric isn’t stagnant either, as time goes on it will change as player perform, but as of right now it shows that Buffalo got more contribution from their draft class in 2020 than KC over the 16 game regular season. 

I made it clear early on that 2020 was pretty unstable and shouldn’t be looked at too heavily, I only included it because someone asked for it. The drafts with multiple years are much more reliable, you’re hyper focused on this year and throwing out that it does a pretty good job with previous years drafts.

 

You’re also listing two players for the Chiefs that they didn’t draft this year... Wharton and Townsend were UDFA. 
 

I’m not debating that CEH, Gay, Sneed and Danna were contributors, but I can probably tell you why at the moment it liked the Bills draft class just slightly more. 
 

In just raw AV for the season the Chiefs class came in at 18 and the Bills draft class came in at 15, but when I did this initial analysis a month ago it became very apparent it wasn’t the most accurate way to see how much value you extracted from a player, I felt the best way was to compare AV to the value of a pick in the round the player was drafted. Admittedly it’s not perfect,  and I want to continue to improve things when I have the time. 

 

CEH has a very good season. He finished with 8 AV and netted the Chiefs positive value in the round at 2.1

 

It looks like Gay was a rotational piece/hurt for a majority of the year. He needed the Chiefs positive value at 0.2 but because he rarely played more than 20% of the snaps he wasn’t able to do enough to be valued as a major contributor. 
 

Niang was net -2.4 net value because he didn’t contribute this year at all. Not getting any value from a 3rd round pick hurts. 
 

Sneed was netted then positive value at 1.6... it looks like he REALLY started coming in at the end of the season after coming back from an injury in the second half of the season. AV can only account for the games he played, so the longer he plays and makes an impact, the more likely it is that he’s accurately reflected here. 
 

Danna netted them positive value at 0.8 it seems like he was just a rotational piece but did make some plays so he gets them positive value because it’s more than a 5th round pick was expected to do. 
 

Last pick was Keyes and he netted them 0.3 in positive value. Seems like he was up and down off the PS all year and got a nod for playing fairly well against the Chargers in week 17. 

That’s have you arrive at the +2.6 TOT_NETAV for the Chiefs in 2020. Like I said, it’s not perfect and will undoubtedly change the more this draft class changes. That’s why this year is pretty unstable, but right now it reflects what the team gained over the course of 16 games.

 

The Bills draft class breaks down like this...

 

Epenesa was negative value for the Bills in round 2 at -1.8

He didn't do enough this year as a rotational piece and his performance at this point wasn't worthy of a RD2 pick.

 

Moss was positive value for the Bills in RD3 at 2.6

He was a solid contributor and have 5 AV on the season, his production wasn't quite that of CEH but in 13 games he put up decent numbers with 576 total yards and 5 TDs for the Bills. Although CEH had the better season and that was reflected, this takes into account draft position and the Bills get decent value here for taking a RB with half the production 2 rounds later than CEH.

 

Gabe Davis was pretty big in RD4 with 4.6 net value. 

35/600/7 from a 4th round pick is pretty good value here, so the Bills are rewarded for that. 

 

Jake Fromm in RD5 dings the Bills -1.2 for obvious reasons

 

Tyler Bass gets them 1.6 in positive value in RD6

4th highest scorer in the league, gives them modest value here.

 

Isaiah Hodgins in RD6 dings them -1.4 in RD6 because he didn't play

 

Dane Jackson in RD7 gets them 0.3... very similar situation as Keyes. Up and down but got a little reward for slight contributions. 

 

That is how you arrive at the Bills 4.8 TOT_NETAV.

 

The further you can go back it does a good job of reflecting value in 2017 and 2018. It’s not stagnant. 

You don’t need to look at more than that game to make a judgment.  It’s glaringly obvious.  You wouldn’t need a best of seven to say that Lebron James is better than me at 1 on 1 if you had just watched us play one game with your own eyes.  CEH (the guy who ran for 161 yards at Buffalo) himself had as many yards from scrimmage as the entire Buffalo rookie class combined.  Sneed (who was amazing from day 1, btw) had more tackles than the entire Bills class combined.  He also had more INTs than the entire Bills class combined. Sneed even had more SACKS than the entire Bills class combined. Mike Danna has more sacks than the entire Bills class combined.  I’m not sure why you’d care to split hairs over the difference between draft picks and UDFAs as if that distinction would matter, but Wharton also has more sacks as an UDFA than the entire Bills class combined.  Hell, the Chiefs rookie class has more PASSING YARDS than the Bills class.  Buffalo drafted a QB.  Kansas City didn’t.

 

I couldn’t care less about how or why a system arrives at such a ridiculously incorrect conclusion.  It should be dismissed out of hand.  Kansas City rookies have 8.5 sacks and 3 INTs on the season.  Buffalo’s have 1 sack and 0 INTs.  None of this is to say that the Bills players won’t go on to have more productive careers, but no credence can be given to the idea that they’ve been more impactful to this point.  Any metric that says otherwise should be ignored.  It’s not worthy of even being used as a data point.  If you want to use it as some sort of barometer, it’s your right to be wrong.  C’mon dude.  It says Matt Milano is a vastly more productive pick than Tre White.

 

[JGMcD2]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

C’mon dude.  It says Matt Milano is a vastly more productive pick than Tre White.

I’m differentiating between draft class and UDFA because this is strictly looking at draft classes, so UDFA are irrelevant. I’m just looking at the draft class, that’s why I differentiated between the two. You’re talking about Townsend holding kicks and Wharton, I’m telling you they’re not included in this. I haven't spent the time to put it together and figure out the best way to lay everything out for UDFA.
 

It’s not saying he’s a more productive pick, it’s saying they got surplus value from Milano in RD5 as compared to White in RD1. It’s not showing you production, it’s showing you value extracted from each round. I’m not sure what’s hard for you to understand about that.  
 

We’ve been going back and forth all day and you still haven’t taken the time to understand what you’re looking at, you continuously misquote what it’s showing you. I find it hard to believe you’re a dumb person, at this point I’m starting to believe your ignorance is intentional to rile me up. I’ve asked you politely multiple times to show me a better way to do it, or even provide feedback on how to improve. I’ve said many times it’s not perfect, but you’re behaving as if it’s wildly off base because you’re a Chiefs fan. I’m here trying to be productive and respectful, but you’re just being rude. 

 

Let me try and explain a different way one more time. 

 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a great season, everything you stated is absolutely true. The reason his surplus value isn't very high, is because of the draft pick that the Chiefs spent on him. It doesn't mean that he was less valuable than anybody, it just means that there was only a certain amount of value extracted from him because his production was only slightly above average for a 1st round pick. 

 

I'm not saying he's not a better player or didn't produce more than Gabe Davis. I'm saying the Bills got a better bang for their buck drafting Davis in RD4 and getting the production they did out of him than the Chiefs got drafting CEH in RD1. While production is factored in, so is the expectation that comes with where the player is drafted. 

 

Moss was drafted about a round and a half later than CEH. No, he didn't produce like CEH did. He had less yards and the same amount of TD in the same number of games his Y/A was about the same and his Y/R was about 1 yard less. Nobody would argue that Moss was more valuable than CEH this year. All this is saying is the Bills got more value getting the type of production they did out of Moss by taking him in RD3 than the Chiefs did by taking CEH in RD1. They're almost equal in terms of surplus value, it's basically negligible. 

 

If the Chiefs were to have taken Moss in RD1 and gotten the production out of him that the Bills did this year, they would have extracted negative value because he didn't live up to 1st round value. Heck, if they took Gabe Davis there and got the same production from him that Buffalo did they would have been penalized as well. It's not trying to tell you that it would have been better for KC to take Moss or Davis in RD1, it's just saying the Bills got a better value taking Moss in RD3 or Davis in RD4. It incorporates production AND where they player is drafted. Davis and Moss aren't more valuable if they're drafted earlier, CEH is EVEN MORE valuable if he some how slips and gets drafted later.

 

Say the Bills take Epenesa in RD3 as opposed to RD2, they would still have gotten penalized for the selection because he wasn't very productive. But the penalization would be less severe because he performed closer to the level expected from a 3rd round pick than the level of a 2nd round pick.

 

The last thing I want to point out is it's not really fair to compare Buffalo's draft class to KC's draft class just using yards, sacks, INTs and what not. You're using rookie class as your line of demarcation which is fine if that's how you're going to break it down for your purposes, but KC had 5 defensive rookies compared to Buffalo's 2 defensive rookies. So yes they had 8.5 sacks and 3 Ints to Buffalo's 1 sack and 1 Int, but you have more players to out there playing and producing than Buffalo does. It would be better to look at that all on a per snap basis or per game basis.

 

Just like comparing CEH total yards to Buffalo's rookie class is tough to do. KC had 1 offensive rookie and BUF had 2. Yes, he had 1,100 yards of total offense on 217 touches and 5 TDs compared to Davis and Moss who had 1,175 on 162 touches and 12 TDs. That's more value out of one player, he also out touched them by 55 touches. Volume and opportunity matters, so again it would probably be better to look at these numbers on a per snap basis or per game basis.

 

Again, as it's laid out above, all I am showing you is the value extracted. Nobody is saying Moss is more valuable than CEH, he would have been a bad pick at 32. His production was just good value for Buffalo in RD3. 

Edited January 26, 2021 by JGMcD2

[Big Turk]

4 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Not necessarily, it takes into account the value found in that round and if you can extract more. 
 

You can definitely benefit from having more picks and hitting on all of them minimally or you can benefit from having very few picks and hitting 1 big and missing on the others. It really just rewards you for extracting as much value as possible, without just looking at raw AV which doesn’t really tell a story as to how you drafted. 
 

So, a first round pick would help, if that pick performed well for us. If they didn’t, it would hurt the value.

 

With our track record I am willing to bet they would have played well....but nowhere near as well as Diggs.

[machine gun kelly]

Op, very thoughtful post and agreed, the largest flaw that Zipper mentions is how absolutely horrible the drafts prior to McBeane were and I don't think people remember how absolutely horrible were their choices.  Most 2014-16 picks are not even in the league or backups at best.

 

The other problem is what are you’re expectations in a draft.  If you hit on 55-60% of you’re picks that can be contributors to the team, you’re drafting well.  When you hit in a 5th to 7th rounder, you’re doing great.  Milano is one example, another is Bass, and Dane should be a good contributor in time.  I don’t know at this point of Ford, Oliver, or Epenesa were good choices.  I expected more from them, but then again guys like Derrick Henry only ran for 500 and 700 yards in 2016-17.  He blew up in years 3-5.  That just typifies a player can break out after their first or second year.

[Motorin']

10 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Adding the 2020 Draft here... still extracted value in the top third of the league in this draft, although it's a top 10 draft and not a top 5 draft. Usual suspects like IND and BAL hovering around the top.

 

Including updated cumulative totals from 2017-2020... Bills still in the lead. Sorted by the TOT_NETAV, which is the value that the team directly benefits from (they're on top in either category though). 

 

 

Does the 2020 numbers include Diggs production in exchange for the draft picks we gave up?

[JGMcD2]

1 minute ago, Motorin' said:

 

Does the 2020 numbers include Diggs production in exchange for the draft picks we gave up?

It does not. It only includes the value extracted with the picks you use to draft a player. 

[Motorin']

Just now, JGMcD2 said:

It does not. It only includes the value extracted with the picks you use to draft a player. 

 

I get saying we technically didn't draft Diggs with the picks we gave up for him, but for all intents and purposes we did. So not including his value in relation to the value of the picks given up isn't an accurate reflection of the quality of the 2020 draft. IMO.  

[JGMcD2]

5 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

I get saying we technically didn't draft Diggs with the picks we gave up for him, but for all intents and purposes we did. So not including his value in relation to the value of the picks given up isn't an accurate reflection of the quality of the 2020 draft. IMO.  

Yeah, maybe I can phrase what I’m looking at here better. I totally agree with you, but I’m more concerned with how they’re evaluating and selecting college talent and getting value from it than I am with what they’re getting from trades for professional talent. In my mind they’re kind of two different processes with different kinds of information available to you. 

[Motorin']

3 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Yeah, maybe I can phrase what I’m looking at here better. I totally agree with you, but I’m more concerned with how they’re evaluating and selecting college talent and getting value from it than I am with what they’re getting from trades for professional talent. In my mind they’re kind of two different processes with different kinds of information available to you. 

 

That makes sense, and seems like very valuable metric you've put together. I'd still like to see where the Bills 2020 draft liens up with Diggs productions factored into the picks given up for him... But more to your point of needing 3 more years to out the team together to match where the Chiefs are at in this process, makes a lot of sense. 

 

 

[Billl]

15 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

I’m differentiating between draft class and UDFA because this is strictly looking at draft classes, so UDFA are irrelevant. I’m just looking at the draft class, that’s why I differentiated between the two. You’re talking about Townsend holding kicks and Wharton, I’m telling you they’re not included in this. I haven't spent the time to put it together and figure out the best way to lay everything out for UDFA.
 

It’s not saying he’s a more productive pick, it’s saying they got surplus value from Milano in RD5 as compared to White in RD1. It’s not showing you production, it’s showing you value extracted from each round. I’m not sure what’s hard for you to understand about that.  
 

We’ve been going back and forth all day and you still haven’t taken the time to understand what you’re looking at, you continuously misquote what it’s showing you. I find it hard to believe you’re a dumb person, at this point I’m starting to believe your ignorance is intentional to rile me up. I’ve asked you politely multiple times to show me a better way to do it, or even provide feedback on how to improve. I’ve said many times it’s not perfect, but you’re behaving as if it’s wildly off base because you’re a Chiefs fan. I’m here trying to be productive and respectful, but you’re just being rude. 

 

Let me try and explain a different way one more time. 

 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a great season, everything you stated is absolutely true. The reason his surplus value isn't very high, is because of the draft pick that the Chiefs spent on him. It doesn't mean that he was less valuable than anybody, it just means that there was only a certain amount of value extracted from him because his production was only slightly above average for a 1st round pick. 

 

I'm not saying he's not a better player or didn't produce more than Gabe Davis. I'm saying the Bills got a better bang for their buck drafting Davis in RD4 and getting the production they did out of him than the Chiefs got drafting CEH in RD1. While production is factored in, so is the expectation that comes with where the player is drafted. 

 

Moss was drafted about a round and a half later than CEH. No, he didn't produce like CEH did. He had less yards and the same amount of TD in the same number of games his Y/A was about the same and his Y/R was about 1 yard less. Nobody would argue that Moss was more valuable than CEH this year. All this is saying is the Bills got more value getting the type of production they did out of Moss by taking him in RD3 than the Chiefs did by taking CEH in RD1. They're almost equal in terms of surplus value, it's basically negligible. 

 

If the Chiefs were to have taken Moss in RD1 and gotten the production out of him that the Bills did this year, they would have extracted negative value because he didn't live up to 1st round value. Heck, if they took Gabe Davis there and got the same production from him that Buffalo did they would have been penalized as well. It's not trying to tell you that it would have been better for KC to take Moss or Davis in RD1, it's just saying the Bills got a better value taking Moss in RD3 or Davis in RD4. It incorporates production AND where they player is drafted. Davis and Moss aren't more valuable if they're drafted earlier, CEH is EVEN MORE valuable if he some how slips and gets drafted later.

 

Say the Bills take Epenesa in RD3 as opposed to RD2, they would still have gotten penalized for the selection because he wasn't very productive. But the penalization would be less severe because he performed closer to the level expected from a 3rd round pick than the level of a 2nd round pick.

 

The last thing I want to point out is it's not really fair to compare Buffalo's draft class to KC's draft class just using yards, sacks, INTs and what not. You're using rookie class as your line of demarcation which is fine if that's how you're going to break it down for your purposes, but KC had 5 defensive rookies compared to Buffalo's 2 defensive rookies. So yes they had 8.5 sacks and 3 Ints to Buffalo's 1 sack and 1 Int, but you have more players to out there playing and producing than Buffalo does. It would be better to look at that all on a per snap basis or per game basis.

 

Just like comparing CEH total yards to Buffalo's rookie class is tough to do. KC had 1 offensive rookie and BUF had 2. Yes, he had 1,100 yards of total offense on 217 touches and 5 TDs compared to Davis and Moss who had 1,175 on 162 touches and 12 TDs. That's more value out of one player, he also out touched them by 55 touches. Volume and opportunity matters, so again it would probably be better to look at these numbers on a per snap basis or per game basis.

 

Again, as it's laid out above, all I am showing you is the value extracted. Nobody is saying Moss is more valuable than CEH, he would have been a bad pick at 32. His production was just good value for Buffalo in RD3. 

I do understand every single word you’ve said.  It’s just flawed no matter how you slice it.

 

Buffalo’s highest pick was DE Epenesa at 54.  He was clearly outperformed by Kansas City’s DE, Danna, drafted 123 picks later.

 

Each team picked a RB.  Moss went with pick 86.  CEH went with pick 32.  CEH had double the yards in the regular season and equal TDs, but CEH is still adding value in the postseason with a TD on Sunday and will be the feature back in the Super Bowl.  Moss’s production was replacement level from a third rounder.  CEH had 1100 yards in 13 games.  
 

Both team’s best player so far was taken in the 4th round.  Davis was taken ahead of Sneed and, while solid, Sneed’s production as a shutdown corner dwarfed Davis’s 599 yards and 7 TDs.

 

That’s pretty much it for Buffalo’s rookie production unless you want to count a 6th round Kicker who was solid, but KC grabbed a Punter as an UDFA who was also solid, so that’s basically a wash.

 

Then there’s the Chiefs second round pick, Willie Gay Jr. who will be a starting LB in the Super Bowl.  There’s also UDFA Tershawn Wharton who played 50% of the snaps at DT and 2 sacks, and forced a fumble which he recovered.

 

The ONLY thing you can point to that shows some “surplus value” would be the fact that Moss was taken a round and a half after CEH, but he was also vastly outplayed by Clyde.

 

There is simply too large a chasm between the production of the two classes to pretend that Buffalo outdrafted (to this point) Kansas City because of some nebulous concept of “surplus value”.  
 

The Chiefs have impact rookie starters at RB, LB, and CB plus major contributions at DE and DT.

 

Buffalo got a nice #4 WR, a rotational RB, and a Kicker.

 

Any system that grades the latter above the former is laughable.

[JGMcD2]

41 minutes ago, Billl said:

I do understand every single word you’ve said.  It’s just flawed no matter how you slice it.

 

Buffalo’s highest pick was DE Epenesa at 54.  He was clearly outperformed by Kansas City’s DE, Danna, drafted 123 picks later.

 

Each team picked a RB.  Moss went with pick 86.  CEH went with pick 32.  CEH had double the yards in the regular season and equal TDs, but CEH is still adding value in the postseason with a TD on Sunday and will be the feature back in the Super Bowl.  Moss’s production was replacement level from a third rounder.  CEH had 1100 yards in 13 games.  
 

Both team’s best player so far was taken in the 4th round.  Davis was taken ahead of Sneed and, while solid, Sneed’s production as a shutdown corner dwarfed Davis’s 599 yards and 7 TDs.

 

That’s pretty much it for Buffalo’s rookie production unless you want to count a 6th round Kicker who was solid, but KC grabbed a Punter as an UDFA who was also solid, so that’s basically a wash.

 

Then there’s the Chiefs second round pick, Willie Gay Jr. who will be a starting LB in the Super Bowl.  There’s also UDFA Tershawn Wharton who played 50% of the snaps at DT and 2 sacks, and forced a fumble which he recovered.

 

The ONLY thing you can point to that shows some “surplus value” would be the fact that Moss was taken a round and a half after CEH, but he was also vastly outplayed by Clyde.

 

There is simply too large a chasm between the production of the two classes to pretend that Buffalo outdrafted (to this point) Kansas City because of some nebulous concept of “surplus value”.  
 

The Chiefs have impact rookie starters at RB, LB, and CB plus major contributions at DE and DT.

 

Buffalo got a nice #4 WR, a rotational RB, and a Kicker.

 

Any system that grades the latter above the former is laughable.

Yes, Epenesa was clearly out performed by Danna and the Chiefs were rewarded for that. 
 

I don’t understand why you keep bringing up postseason stats, it’s a limited sample size. It’s important in the entire scope of things, but in predicting things you can’t just go off of one game. Nobody in sports analytics incorporates playoff data into anything because it’s so limited. Saying that because CEH’s team has gone further in the playoffs, therefore that makes him a better player is... flawed. It’s like saying Tremaine Edmunds is a better linebacker than Darius Leonard because Tremaine’s team went further and he was a starter. 
 

Once again, I’m not valuing rookie classes in valuing draft classes. If you would like to present a way to evaluate UDFA or a better way to evaluate draft classes, be my guest. You’re still failing to do so, while yelling about yards, sacks, touchdowns and whatever else. The ironic part, is that those numbers are used to calculate Approximate Value. 
 

If you give Zack Moss the same amount of touches as CEH, he produces nearly the same. If Moss touches the ball 217 times he puts up 1000 yards and 9 touchdowns to CEH touching the ball 217 times with 1100 yards and 5 touchdowns. 
 

It’s as much about opportunity as it is performance. Buffalo got more yards and touchdowns on less touches for a 3rd and 4th round round pick than KC got for their 1st round pick. 
 

It’s not a nebulous concept. It’s a concept used in finance, it’s used in baseball (See MoneyBall) as well as various other places. 
 

Just answer this question...

 

You can spend a 1st round pick and you receive the following...

 

217 touches, 1,100 yards and 5 TDs

 

or

 

You can spend a 3rd round pick and a 4th round pick and receive the following...

 

162 touches, 1,175 yards and 12 TDs

 

Which would you rather have? What’s a better bang for your buck? It’s the exact same concept Billy Beane used when replacing Jason Giambi.

Edited January 26, 2021 by JGMcD2

[Billl]

28 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

 

Just answer this question...

 

You can spend a 1st round pick and you receive the following...

 

217 touches, 1,100 yards and 5 TDs

 

or

 

You can spend a 3rd round pick and a 4th round pick and receive the following...

 

162 touches, 1,175 yards and 12 TDs

What an amazing cherry pick.  You just compared the two most productive players from the Bills class.  Scratch that.  You just compared the ENTIRETY of the production of the Bills draft class to one pick from the Chiefs class.  Were all of the Bills apples more productive in 29 games played than one of the Chiefs oranges was in 13 games played?  Sure.  Would any GM in the league, if given the option, take Davis and Moss over Edwards-Elaire?  Absolutely not.

 

That said, the rest of the Bills class to date has netted a roughly average season by a Kicker and absolutely nothing else.  The rest of the Chiefs class has produced a starting LB, a #1 CB, and a DE who played 50% of the snaps.

 

I just don’t get why this is even a conversation.  Without Davis, who had a solid but unspectacular season as a #4 Wideout, the Bills draft has been a total bust.  Again, it’s way way too early to start labeling picks as busts, but if we’re talking about one season of sample size...yikes.

 

Epenesa (who I wanted the Chiefs to draft) just doesn’t look like an NFL player walking out of the locker room, and his performance on the field has been negligible.  So far, he looks like a bad pick.

 

Moss looks like a guy with some power in short yardage but who has no speed and no value catching the ball out of the backfield.  There are 50 guys on practice squads who can do that.  After consecutive drafts taking a RB in the third round, the Bills biggest hole on offense is at RB.  Looks like a bad pick.

 

Davis has looked good.  He doesn’t look elite, but he could turn into a nice piece.  Good pick.

 

Bass...was a kicker taken in the 6th round.  That’s a total waste of a pick.  He’d likely have been available as an UDFA.  If not, Sloman or Blankenship would have been.  
 

The rest didn’t even see the field.  
 

Let’s talk “value” though.  The Bills made selections worth 580 points according to the draft value chart.  The Chiefs made selections worth 1040 points.  If you throw out the first round pick to make a more fair comparison, KC had 450 points.  For the sake of discussion, we can call that even.  Buffalo got the players mentioned above (11 total starts) while Kansas City has a starting LB, a #1 CB, and a productive rotational DE.  How’s that for surplus value?

 

[JGMcD2]

5 minutes ago, Billl said:

What an amazing cherry pick.  You just compared the two most productive players from the Bills class.  Scratch that.  You just compared the ENTIRETY of the production of the Bills draft class to one pick from the Chiefs class.  Were all of the Bills apples more productive in 29 games played than one of the Chiefs oranges was in 13 games played?  Sure.  Would any GM in the league, if given the option, take Davis and Moss over Edwards-Elaire?  Absolutely not.

 

That said, the rest of the Bills class to date has netted a roughly average season by a Kicker and absolutely nothing else.  The rest of the Chiefs class has produced a starting LB, a #1 CB, and a DE who played 50% of the snaps.

 

I just don’t get why this is even a conversation.  Without Davis, who had a solid but unspectacular season as a #4 Wideout, the Bills draft has been a total bust.  Again, it’s way way too early to start labeling picks as busts, but if we’re talking about one season of sample size...yikes.

 

Epenesa (who I wanted the Chiefs to draft) just doesn’t look like an NFL player walking out of the locker room, and his performance on the field has been negligible.  So far, he looks like a bad pick.

 

Moss looks like a guy with some power in short yardage but who has no speed and no value catching the ball out of the backfield.  There are 50 guys on practice squads who can do that.  After consecutive drafts taking a RB in the third round, the Bills biggest hole on offense is at RB.  Looks like a bad pick.

 

Davis has looked good.  He doesn’t look elite, but he could turn into a nice piece.  Good pick.

 

Bass...was a kicker taken in the 6th round.  That’s a total waste of a pick.  He’d likely have been available as an UDFA.  If not, Sloman or Blankenship would have been.  
 

The rest didn’t even see the field.  
 

Let’s talk “value” though.  The Bills made selections worth 580 points according to the draft value chart.  The Chiefs made selections worth 1040 points.  If you throw out the first round pick to make a more fair comparison, KC had 450 points.  For the sake of discussion, we can call that even.  Buffalo got the players mentioned above (11 total starts) while Kansas City has a starting LB, a #1 CB, and a productive rotational DE.  How’s that for surplus value?

 

I used touches for a reason. It’s ok man, you don’t understand how numbers work. If you decided to try and learn rather than push back, it would likely benefit you. 
 

Takes names out of it. You’re telling me every GM in the league would rather have 217 touches 1,100 yards and 5 TDs over 162 touches 1,175 yards and 12 TDs? 
 

I’m taking SUBJECTIVE concepts out of this here and looking at things OBJECTIVELY. It has nothing to do with how Bass compares to a kicker... it has to do with how he compares to the value in the board when the team picks in that round. It’s how well the GM does given the value available at that pick. You’re rewarded or penalized.

 

Now you’re using draft pick points? Come on man. Pick 86 and 128 cost 204 points and pick 32 cost 590. Who got more value for their production? 

[Billl]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

 

If you give Zack Moss the same amount of touches as CEH, he produces nearly the same. If Moss touches the ball 217 times he puts up 1000 yards and 9 touchdowns to CEH touching the ball 217 times with 1100 yards and 5 touchdowns

This is another gem of an argument.  Moss is a short yardage back.  You don’t get to just double his touches and say he’d have doubled his TDs.  It doesn’t work that way.  Otherwise, John Brown would have thrown 572 touchdown passes if they had let him throw as many passes as Allen did.  If Moss could have put up 85 yards per game as a feature back, he’d be the feature back.  He’s not exactly backing up Thurman Thomas.  McDermott would relegate Singletary to spot duty in a heartbeat if he had a feature back on the roster.

[Billl]

1 minute ago, JGMcD2 said:

 

Takes names out of it. You’re telling me every GM in the league would rather have 217 touches 1,100 yards and 5 TDs over 162 touches 1,175 yards and 12 TDs? 

You’re comparing stats using DIFFERENT POSITIONS.  Of course a WR is going to skew the stats on a per touch basis versus a RB.  
 

Let’s “take names out of it” again.  Would you rather have 240 touches, 1925 yards, and 25 TDs or 378 touches, 2027 yards, and 19 TDs?

 

If you chose the first, congratulations.  You got Robert Tonyan, Jonnu Smith, and David Johnson.  I’ll stick with Derrick Henry.

[Ya Digg?]

21 hours ago, Billl said:

There was a football game played last night.

 

Epenesa had one tackle and no other stats.

Bass kicked 4 FGs and missed a PAT.

Davis had 3 targets without a catch.

If any other rookies played, they didn’t register on the stat sheet.

 

Edwards-Elaire  had a rushing TD.

Sneed played lockdown coverage, made 5 tackles, and had a 15 yard sack.

Danna and Wharton each had a tackle.

Townsend had a punt and held 5 PATs and a FG.

 

Not super interested in any metric that favors the first group.

 

Haha I'm sorry I don't mean to nitpick and I actually agree with a lot of what you are saying, but when I read that part right there it made me laugh out loud - like it's some amazing skill to hold the ball on a field goal or extra point!!  😆