League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up

[JGMcD2]

I put this together about 2 months ago, but with the season over and AV now updated, I figured it would be a good time to revisit. I agree with a lot of the posters saying that we're missing pieces. Of course we are, but I'm tired of the assertions that we need to draft better. We've objectively been THE BEST drafting team in the NFL from 2017-2019. I don't feel comfortable using a 1 year sample from 2020 just yet, but truthfully at this point it will drop the Bills 1 MAYBE 2 spots overall (I haven't had the chance to break it all down yet, but I will update when I do). 

 

I know people are going to try and rip this to shreds as stupid, but I have read numerous articles using AV as a way to compare draft classes. Many on The Athletic, like this article where they evaluate the Saints 2017 draft class using AV (my original analysis was done almost 3 weeks prior to this coming out, and yes it reflects the Saints having the best draft class in 2017 by a wide margin).

 

Here is my methodology from the original post...

 

Nobody really had a great way to measure success in the draft outside of their perception of a player... I wanted to make an attempt at examining this objectively. Pro Football Reference has their Weighted Approximate Value which assigns a value to a player based on their performance. It's not an all encompassing stat like WAR is in baseball, it definitely has its flaws, but PFR said it's steady to use to measure draft success. I'm going to dive into the results below on the draft, as well as some analysis I have done of the FA signings. Nothing is really over the top, I'm going to take some feedback and try to refine this. I had to do a lot of it by hand in excel and couldn't just scrape everything because different pieces were all over.

 

I chose 2017 specifically because that is when Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane arrived. Some folks want to argue that Beane shouldn't get credit for that draft and FA, which is perfectly fine. I am in the camp that believes McDermott and Beane are in lockstep, they make up the upper management of the football department, therefore the decisions made since 2017 have been made with certain goals in mind. I don't feel the need to omit 2017 because it was scrambled, it's very clear these two are close and the decisions made were made by McBeane in some way, shape or form starting in 2017. 

 

"Sometimes, for example if you want to assess a trade or determine the top draft classes of all time, you need a metric that is capable of comparing players across positions and eras. In baseball and basketball, lots of stats have been cooked up to do this, and they can do so with a reasonable degree of precision. In football, no such stat exists. In most cases, people use "starter" or "number of years as a starter" or "number of pro bowls" as the metric when they have to compare across positions.

AV is intended to be an improvement over those metrics, and nothing more. It is not Not NOT an ubermetric whose purpose is to decide once and for all who the best players in NFL history were." - Doug from PFR

 

The career AV is computed by summing 
100 percent of the AV of his best season,
95 percent of the AV of his next-best season,
90 percent of the AV of his third-best season,
and so on 

 

What I did was found the average value for a player drafted in each round (1-7) in each year (2017-2019) and the calculated what I am calling the Net Drafted Accumulated Value (NETDrAV) for each pick in each round. I only compared each draft to itself. I then found the Total Net Drafted Accumulated Value (TOT_NETDrAV) for each team in each draft and ranked them against each other. Rather than just looking at how much raw value the Bills brought in as compared to the 31 other teams, this gives an idea of how much extra value they extracted in each round as compared to the 31 other teams in the league. 

 

TOT_NETDrAV is the AV that a team has benefitted from directly on their team as compared to players and teams in their draft class.

 

TOT_NETCarAV is just the pure amount of value that players drafted by a given team have produced as compared to players and teams in their draft class.

 

 

Yes, I agree that they're missing something, but this constant assertion that this regime are "average drafters" or that we "have too many busts" is flat out wrong. You are only good or bad by comparison, and they're better than the rest of the NFL. 

 

They've extracted more value than any other team in the league over their first 3 years in the NFL. This will continue to change as players perform, but right now they have a clearly performed well drafting. It's not even debatable, Buffalo, New Orleans and Baltimore have been far and away the best drafting teams in the NFL from 2017-2019.

 

Do we need more impact players? Yes, every team does and actively seeks them out. But this notion that we don't draft well is garbage, complete and utter garbage. 

Edited January 25, 2021 by JGMcD2

[JGMcD2]

Sad but expected that none of the negative Nancy posters are willing to even comment. 

[JGMcD2]

7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Smells like heat maps... 

What’s wrong with heat maps? 
 

I work in MLB and they’re used heavily in advanced scouting... 

[Billl]

11 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Sad but expected that none of the negative Nancy posters are willing to even comment. 

Who are these players?  You’ve got White and Allen who are stars and a bunch of JAGs.

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

Who are these players?  You’ve got White and Allen who are stars and a bunch of JAGs.

Then what do other teams have if we’re extracting more value than them? 

[Big Turk]

What about 2020 AV?

 

Impressive the Bills are in the top 5 all three years but even more impressive they are the only team in there more than once.

Edited January 25, 2021 by Big Turk

[Billl]

1 minute ago, JGMcD2 said:

Then what do other teams have if we’re extracting more value than them? 

So...not going to list any names?

[JGMcD2]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

What about 2020 AV?

It’s included. This is just Total Career Net AV and Total Career Net Drafted AV. 
 

It’s all baked in there, so for the 2017 draft class it takes into account 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020. It operates the same for 2018 and 2019. 
 

I had done this before 2020 drafted players had their AV calculated, but 2017-2019 I updated to include their 2020 season. 

3 minutes ago, Billl said:

So...not going to list any names?

What names do I need to list?

 

It’s publicly available information. Go to Wikipedia, NFL.com or Pro Football Reference. 

 

Stop acting like I’m hiding who teams took in the draft from 2017-2019. 

Edited January 25, 2021 by JGMcD2

[Billl]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

White, Allen, Diggs are stars. Beasley is borderline. Everyone else is solid or a JAG. 

Diggs and Beasley weren’t drafted by the Bills.

2 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

It’s included. This is just Total Career Net AV and Total Career Net Drafted AV. 
 

It’s all baked in there, so for the 2017 draft class it takes into account 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020. It operates the same for 2018 and 2019. 
 

I had done this before 2020 drafted players had their AV calculated, but 2017-2019 I updated to include their 2020 season. 

What names do I need to list?

 

It’s publicly available information. Go to Wikipedia, NFL.com or Pro Football Reference. 

 

Stop acting like I’m hiding who teams took in the draft from 2017-2019. 

I’m asking what players the Bills drafted between 2017 and 2019 that have provided enough value to even justify their draft position.  I count two.  I don’t know if there’s another player taken during that time who would return more than maybe a 4th rounder if they were traded today.

[Southern_Bills]

12 minutes ago, Billl said:

Diggs and Beasley weren’t drafted by the Bills.

I’m asking what players the Bills drafted between 2017 and 2019 that have provided enough value to even justify their draft position.  I count two.  I don’t know if there’s another player taken during that time who would return more than maybe a 4th rounder if they were traded today.

So you honestly think Edmunds and Oliver are worth no more than a 4th? Dawkins? Milano? Davis? These guys are not all pros I understand that, but you act like they wouldn't even touch the field for another team.

[JGMcD2]

23 minutes ago, Billl said:

Diggs and Beasley weren’t drafted by the Bills.

I’m asking what players the Bills drafted between 2017 and 2019 that have provided enough value to even justify their draft position.  I count two.  I don’t know if there’s another player taken during that time who would return more than maybe a 4th rounder if they were traded today.

I mean here...

 

 

But you're missing the point, you may feel like they're not extracting enough value... but they're extracting more than everyone else in the league.

Edited January 25, 2021 by JGMcD2

[y2zipper]

The point here is that White Allen Edmunds, Milano, and Dawkins is better than most teams have done the past 3 years. 2019 stands out is not quite as good as the other classes, but Buffalo's 2020 class has proven to be really good so far. It just takes more time to stack the roster.

 

To get to a spot where Kansas City is, you still have to add about another 3 or 4 years of extracting value and buffalo drafted incredibly poorly from 2014 to 2016. Kansas City drafted Eric Fisher and Travis kelce in 2013, for example.

 

[JGMcD2]

Adding the 2020 Draft here... still extracted value in the top third of the league in this draft, although it's a top 10 draft and not a top 5 draft. Usual suspects like IND and BAL hovering around the top.

 

Including updated cumulative totals from 2017-2020... Bills still in the lead. Sorted by the TOT_NETAV, which is the value that the team directly benefits from (they're on top in either category though). 

 

[JGMcD2]

18 minutes ago, y2zipper said:

The point here is that White Allen Edmunds, Milano, and Dawkins is better than most teams have done the past 3 years. 2019 stands out is not quite as good as the other classes, but Buffalo's 2020 class has proven to be really good so far. It just takes more time to stack the roster.

 

To get to a spot where Kansas City is, you still have to add about another 3 or 4 years of extracting value and buffalo drafted incredibly poorly from 2014 to 2016. Kansas City drafted Eric Fisher and Travis kelce in 2013, for example.

 

All I am trying to do is put context around their draft. I can't stand people just yelling "they're average drafters" or "below average drafters." Well let's try and find a way to measure that and I think this does a good (albeit not perfect) job of objectively measuring how well the Bills have done in each draft compared to their peers. 

 

You hit the nail on the head, Andy Reid has had 8 years to build the team that he has now. He's had 8 drafts to find impact players. They have Mahomes, Kelce, Hill and Jones who they've drafted over those 8 years with a bunch of other contributors sprinkled in. 

 

McBeane has had 4 drafts and they have White, Allen and Dawkins (I won't include Edmunds because he's controversial) with a bunch of other contributors they've selected themselves as well.

 

You have to look through the lens of what the league has done, they can't be good or bad without being compared to their peers. 

 

I'd tell you this analysis was crap, but if you look closely it makes sense. 8/10 top drafting teams from 2017-2020 were in the playoffs this year!!

 

The two that missed were LAC (regarded as one of the most talented rosters in all of football but dealt with coaching issues) and SFO (regarded as one of the most talented rosters in all of football but dealt with injury issues). Chicago and Washington are teams who are a QB away from being seriously competitive teams. On top of that, look at some of the worst drafting teams! NE, CIN, DEN, OAK, NYJ. Those teams all missed the playoffs. Only 2 of the 10 worst drafting teams managed to make the playoffs - CLE and GB. Everyone who is arguing we draft poorly is doing so because they believe that you have to draft well to have success. This supports that.

 

It's not perfect, but the results make sense.

Edited January 25, 2021 by JGMcD2

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

What about 2020 AV?

 

Impressive the Bills are in the top 5 all three years but even more impressive they are the only team in there more than once.

 

26 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Adding the 2020 Draft here... still extracted value in the top third of the league in this draft, although it's a top 10 draft and not a top 5 draft. Usual suspects like IND and BAL hovering around the top.

 

Including updated cumulative totals from 2017-2020... Bills still in the lead. Sorted by the TOT_NETAV, which is the value that the team directly benefits from (they're on top in either category though). 

 

 

[y2zipper]

15 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

All I am trying to do is put context around their draft. I can't stand people just yelling "they're average drafters" or "below average drafters." Well let's try and find a way to measure that and I think this does a good (albeit not perfect) job of objectively measuring how well the Bills have done in each draft compared to their peers. 

 

You hit the nail on the head, Andy Reid has had 8 years to build the team that he has now. He's had 8 drafts to find impact players. They have Mahomes, Kelce, Hill and Jones who they've drafted over those 8 years with a bunch of other contributors sprinkled in. 

 

McBeane has had 4 drafts and they have White, Allen and Dawkins (I won't include Edmunds because he's controversial) with a bunch of other contributors they've selected themselves as well.

 

You have to look through the lens of what the league has done, they can't be good or bad without being compared to their peers. 

 

I'd tell you this analysis was crap, but if you look closely it makes sense. 8/10 top drafting teams from 2017-2020 were in the playoffs this year!!

 

The two that missed were LAC (regarded as one of the most talented rosters in all of football but dealt with coaching issues) and SFO (regarded as one of the most talented rosters in all of football but dealt with injury issues). Chicago and Washington are teams who are a QB away from being seriously competitive teams. Everyone who is arguing we draft poorly is doing so because they believe that you have to draft well to have success. This supports that.

 

It's not perfect, but the results make sense.

 

It's definitely a very good attempt at context and makes the results make sense to me, too. The only weird one for me is New Orleans, but that isn't a team that I watch a whole lot closely because of where I live.

 

Largely Buffalo fell short is that when they change their defensive line rotation the players they signed to play those positions didn't work out very well.

 

So in my mind I'm also thinking that the value of the quarterback position sort of tilts that towards teams that drafted Herbert and Burrow so you'd expect to see those teams at the top of a draft value chart for 2020.

 

 

 

 

 

[Billl]

26 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Adding the 2020 Draft here... still extracted value in the top third of the league in this draft, although it's a top 10 draft and not a top 5 draft. Usual suspects like IND and BAL hovering around the top.

 

Including updated cumulative totals from 2017-2020... Bills still in the lead. Sorted by the TOT_NETAV, which is the value that the team directly benefits from (they're on top in either category though). 

 

This is a terrible metric.  Buffalo is 4 spots ahead of Minnesota who wouldn’t trade Jefferson for the entire Buffalo draft class.  Kansas City wouldn’t trade their 4th round pick for Buffalo’s entire draft class.  The Bills’ class could still turn out to be great, but the only player who’s shown anything is Davis.

[JGMcD2]

13 minutes ago, y2zipper said:

 

It's definitely a very good attempt at context and makes the results make sense to me, too. The only weird one for me is New Orleans, but that isn't a team that I watch a whole lot closely because of where I live.

 

Largely Buffalo fell short is that when they change their defensive line rotation the players they signed to play those positions didn't work out very well.

 

So in my mind I'm also thinking that the value of the quarterback position sort of tilts that towards teams that drafted Herbert and Burrow so you'd expect to see those teams at the top of a draft value chart for 2020.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Orleans has 2 top 10 drafts here, but also a bottom 2 draft. They had had arguably one of the best drafts in NFL history in 2017 which propels them to the top, but when you pretty much hit on an entire draft you can get away with a lot.

 

Good point with QBs.

9 minutes ago, Billl said:

This is a terrible metric.  Buffalo is 4 spots ahead of Minnesota who wouldn’t trade Jefferson for the entire Buffalo draft class.  Kansas City wouldn’t trade their 4th round pick for Buffalo’s entire draft class.  The Bills’ class could still turn out to be great, but the only player who’s shown anything is Davis.

I’m sorry you don’t understand. You can scroll back up to read and understand how it works, or I encourage you to devise another way to objectively measure draft classes.

 

All it’s showing you is that Minnesota hit on Jefferson and didn’t do anything else with their picks. Same with KC and Snead.

 

Buffalo might not have gotten 1 impact player but they managed to find multiple contributors. It rewards you for finding value.

 

I also made it clear it’s better to have a few more years to get a more accurate reflection of the class, although because it’s in comparison to its own class and production it’s a little more stable.

Edited January 25, 2021 by JGMcD2

[GunnerBill]

We are good at drafting contributors. We do need to be better at drafting stars. Especially since the arrival of Beane as GM.

 

Three of the top 5 picks even by your own methodology are White, Dawkins and Milano - McDermott picks. 

 

Anyone saying the Bills are bad drafters is wrong. But Beane needs to hit on stars. We saw it last night. KC out "star" us 6-3 and 5 of their stars made game changing plays and Mathieu while not having a signature play was everywhere on defense. 

 

That is the problem with the methodology. I agree it paints a picture but it doesn't finish off all the colouring. Because you could have a whole roster of guys who score between +2.5 and +10 and you'd have next to no chance of winning a Championship. And Matt Milano is the highest scorer by the methodology. Matt Milano. Very good football player drafted in the 5th round so +20.6. That is by any reckoning a good pick. But you ain't winning a championship with a team full of Matt Milanos either. Not unless you have a handful of stars scattered in. 

 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

I mean here...

 

 

But you're missing the point, you may feel like they're not extracting enough value... but they're extracting more than everyone else in the league.

 

The Bills in 2017 traded down for future capital and still got three high end starting caliber players including an All-Pro in Tre and good players in Dawkins and Milano, in 2018 they found a franchise QB and two defensive starters (Edumonds and T.Johnson) and Phillips still has a chance to pan out as he was looking good before his injury (Neal also has been solid depth.) And Teller and Ray Ray have caught on with other teams meaning that literally almost every pick in 2018 was a talented player. 

 

2019 featured Ed who is a quality starter and possible starters/role players in Ford, Knox and Singletary. How much better could these drafts realistically be? Constantly getting 3+ starters and role players is nothing to sneeze at.