What are your ideas to fix the Bills' running game for next year?

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

How much padding is there in the seat of football pants?  🤔

Hey, New England Patriots exploited the rules for years.  You show me where 'blow darts' are mentioned in the rule book! 🥸

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Question: how exactly is success rate defined, and where does one find league stats on this?

 

As far as the Bills running game is concerned, don't you find it a bit of a conundrum? 

 

Yes, overall, our running game is below league average.  4.2 ypa is #19 in the league.

 

But let's look deeper.  We have 1723 rush yards on 411 attempts, 4.2 ypa. 

 

1) Taking out Josh Allen's contributions, we have 1310 rush yards on 296 attempts - dead last in the league for both, I'm pretty sure even subtracting other QB contributions (bottom 10 rushing teams don't have rushing QBs).  So at least part of our problem is, sheer volume.  We ran extremely infrequently.

 

That begs the question: Why?

 

2) When we do take out Josh's contributions, we find that our other backs combined for 1310 yds on 296 attempts, or slightly above league average at 4.43 YPA. 

 

3) When we look at our YPG (including Josh), we are below league average at 104 ypg.  Yet we have 6 games where we were well above league average of 119 ypg, and in 3 of them we were above the average YPG of the 5-top rushing teams.  Clearly at times, when we decided to make it a focus, we could run well.  And these games were scattered throughout the season and involved different lines: Dawkins-Boettger-Feliciano-Winter-Williams; Dawkins-Feliciano-Morse-Winters-Williams; Dawkins-Boettger-Morse-Feliciano-Williams.  

 

4) our overall run statistics were certainly impacted by Daboll's team-specific game plans.  There are games when he decided "we're going to pass until you prove you can stop it".  There are games when he decided "we're going to run until you prove you can stop it".  And there are "the rest". "the rest" were below average: remove 3 best, 3 worst, average drops from 104 to 100 ypg.

 

5) Ave YPG in first 6 games of the regular season: 95.  Ave YPG in games 8-17: 117

 

What to make of this?

1) When we focused on it, we could run well against average or below average run D (Broncos and Pats below ave, Chargers ave)

2) We could not run worth crap against the best DLs or run Ds.  Film analysis that's out there says a lot of this is blocking and the run got stuffed in the backfield

3) Some of the difference is the changing composition of the OL during the season:

 a) We did not have a good run game with Ford at guard. Weeks 1-6 with Ford: 95 ypg.  Correlation is not causation, but film analysis he's seen letting the DL off his block, badly at times.  If Beane thinks Ford is a starter at guard AND he wants to improve the run game, either Ford must improve greatly or he's "pushing a rock uphill".

 b) I think Feliciano made a difference, but the games which included him, also included games where we didn't run at all.  Data don't support

4) to Point 2), part of the run being stuffed in the backfield may be on run play "tells" that allow the DL to key off of it (a lot are crude tells like whether we're under center or not 70% run, I expect there are a bunch more)

 

FWIW

 

 

I too felt that Ford was grading poorly at tackle and guard. Beane stressed that Ford has been playing through multiple injuries.

 

We have to give Beane, his staff, and Ford the benefit of the doubt, but my biggest concerns with Ford have always been his foot speed.

 

His ability to keep moving his feet under him with quick small steps and rely less on leaning and reaching for blocks. Guard places less onus on this controled lateral speed if they are not pulling him, but DTs were still getting him off balance.

 

In fairness to Ford, if he does get into the pads of a DL with good technique, he wins that battle more often than not and can drive him off his spot. He is strong.

 

He should have to win back his spot from Ike or Mongo. If both are still here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/25/2021 at 6:00 PM, Dr Krentist said:

 

From this analysis it seems like it's more OL play than RB.

 

Would just like to add here for those who don't know, Erik Turner played RB.  He actually may be in his best lane breaking down run plays.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

I too felt that Ford was grading poorly at tackle and guard. Beane stressed that Ford has been playing through multiple injuries.

 

Just the statement that "he's played more games injured than he has healthy" is of concern after 2 years.

I get it that the guy is a gamer, but Milano is unquestionably a very good player when he's on the field, still the concern raised with him is "not healthy enough"

 

But I don't believe he was ever listed as having an arm or shoulder injury this year after off-season surgery. 

 

It's pretty clear from the Cover1 breakdown linked here and others that hand and arm placement are a big issue for him in run blocking, at least as a guard.  He's either not quick enough, or he doesn't have the technique to cope with NFL DLmen, or both.

 

At this point, is there anyone who feels if the question is "who do we have on the roster who can lock down one of the guard slots and maul defenders in run blocking?" the answer is "Cody Ford"?

 

 

2 hours ago, Steve Billieve said:

I honestly don't understand why we even need a running game when Allen automatically challenges defenses with his legs. I say we keep only pass pro linemen.

 

Strangely enough McDermott Beane and other experts appear to disagree with you

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/25/2021 at 12:38 PM, dneveu said:

 

I think either of our backs would thrive in an actual rushing offense.  Not sure if its just - not creative?  But we basically have like 3 running plays.  Inside and outside zone (with occasionally mckenzie in motion), and if we're in shotgun its read option (with occasional motion, or RPO concepts).  No pitches, no power, no pin and pull, misdirection, counters, traps... anything.  

 

Suggest you watch Chopping Wood, particularly the NE and Chargers segments, "plays to be had" on Cover1, etc. We have tried to run most of those plays (not power).  Counter trey, draw, pin and pull.... theyr'e all there.  Also earlier in the season we were trying to run them from shotgun.

 

On 1/25/2021 at 12:53 PM, Draconator said:

• There is a open line of communication between Buffalo and Carolina. 

 

Is that even still true?

 

On 1/25/2021 at 4:16 PM, BillsShredder83 said:

Stolen from a post in another topic, but I like the idea of cutting Morse and sliding Feliciano over, to save $, keep the nastiness out there, and reinvest that money on the line. Dawkins and Williams can stay outside, and plug in two upgrades at guard.

 

 

I think the Seattle game OL decisions were a question: "OK, we run block better with Mongo at center.  Do we pass block as well or better?"  Since we gave up a season-high 7 sacks  (2nd highest was 4 vs LAR and Donald) and IIRC, they weren't coverage sacks plus at least one shotgun snap IIRC where I said "Damn, glad our QB is 6'5", I think the answer was a resounding "No" and Morse showed up under center next week.

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

On 1/28/2021 at 10:06 AM, GETTOTHE50 said:

Go to rehab and actually work on the running game. 

 

I think the Bills were so excited and addicted with the development of JA17 that they said screw the run.

 

They were like a bunch of crack addicts, where JA passes was the crack. They loved what they were seeing, doing, and ultimately couldn’t put down the pipe. The Bills organization hadn’t felt this way in years so they rode it out as far as they could before OD-ing.

 

I don’t blame them. Hell, we were all riding the JA white lightning. But it’s time we all go back to rehab and learn that the key to life and success is balance. It’s time we put down the pipe, or atleast not hit it 45x per game. 
 

 

 

Great post.

Also they didn't have the full off season time last year.

Bills need either a speed back OR a big bruiser and they should bring that in for competition this year.

 

The big thing is game day.  Having only Singletary and Moss as game day RBs because of Jones is a mistake IMO.

The big thing to look for this off season is a "Jones replacement".  I want 3 RBs that can contribute where needed on game day.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/28/2021 at 1:22 PM, Logic said:

I found this deep dive into the Bills’ run game by Mike Tanier to be really great.

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/upgrading-the-buffalo-bills-offense-running-backs-do-matter/
 

Tanier essentially points out that Moss and Singletary aren’t the problem, and that the run game configuration and play calling is primarily to blame, with a bit of blame going to the blocking as well. He does NOT believe that spending premium assets on another running back is warranted. Nor does he necessarily think we need an O-line overhaul. He seems to believe Daboll is the primary culprit.

 

Lots of great stuff in there that I don’t want to copy and paste too much of, as I’m on a phone and it’s cumbersome. I recommend reading it.

 

“The Bills don’t have to bust out the 1977 tactics or trade up to draft Clemson’s Travis Etienne to improve their running game. In fact, they should not do either of those things. They should, however, rethink the configuration of their running game on first downs to improve their efficiency. That includes whether the box is stacked or not.“

 

Definitely a worthwhile read for his perspective, but IMO, I think he's getting sucked into the Analytics forest and never looking at the trees.

He lost me right here:

Quote

Let’s absolve the Bills’ offensive line of any blame before we continue. Football Outsiders ranked them 15th in Adjusted Line Yards. It’s not spectacular, but certainly not a problem. Tape-based traffic-light evaluation systems also see no major issues with the Bills’ line. And they pass the eye test — Dion Dawkins, Mitch Morse, Daryl Williams, and the others form a line that most teams would be thrilled to assemble.

 

Cover1 (who knows a thing bout run schemes) and Eric Wood (who knows a thing about run blocking) have both broken down plays that worked, and plays that didn't work.  The run blocking was most definitely a problem at times and did NOT pass the eye test.  At other times, it was fine.  The problem is, the times it did not came against the better run-stopping or just overall DLs in the league.

 

There are times when, to Daboll's own admission, "I need to design better plays the players can execute".  But part of that is plays THESE players can execute, and at some point, you need players who can execute a wider vocabulary of plays.  I wouldn't want to absolve Daboll of needing to make better play choice decisions, but if the OL can't block for outside zone to the L much less up the middle, there's not a lot of vocabulary words.

 

Plenty of blame to go around IMO.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

New Youtube video from Cover1 just dropped:

"Bills Running Game Issues"

 

 

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just the statement that "he's played more games injured than he has healthy" is of concern after 2 years.

I get it that the guy is a gamer, but Milano is unquestionably a very good player when he's on the field, still the concern raised with him is "not healthy enough"

 

But I don't believe he was ever listed as having an arm or shoulder injury this year after off-season surgery. 

 

It's pretty clear from the Cover1 breakdown linked here and others that hand and arm placement are a big issue for him in run blocking, at least as a guard.  He's either not quick enough, or he doesn't have the technique to cope with NFL DLmen, or both.

 

At this point, is there anyone who feels if the question is "who do we have on the roster who can lock down one of the guard slots and maul defenders in run blocking?" the answer is "Cody Ford"?

 

 

 

Strangely enough McDermott Beane and other experts appear to disagree with you

 

I also believe that well-intentioned competitive players that try to do too much or play with poor technique get injured more often.

 

If you find yourself in poor position on the field about to lose your battle on a play, you are more apt to do something that strains, sprains, tears, or breaks something.

 

Aka Edmunds hitting the wrong gap, yet trying to catch the guy he missed with an arm as he is flying by him...there goes the shoulder.

 

That is why teams stress trust and each player doing their 1/11th. If guys start playing put of position to compensate for the missed assignments of others the injuries mount up.

 

Something to objectively consider when you have oft-injured players. Unavoidable accidents or are they often out of position with poor technique.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Great post.

Also they didn't have the full off season time last year.

Bills need either a speed back OR a big bruiser and they should bring that in for competition this year.

 

The big thing is game day.  Having only Singletary and Moss as game day RBs because of Jones is a mistake IMO.

The big thing to look for this off season is a "Jones replacement".  I want 3 RBs that can contribute where needed on game day.

It is a mistake and a stupid use of the 53. I'm so tired of stashing a RB for only ST use.  80% of kickoffs end in touchbacks.  Most punts are "fair catch". You telling me Yeldon couldn't have played some on ST? Ridiculous. As Hapless pointed out we have to find the right OL combo to maximize our running lanes. Sure there will be teams (defenses) we can get by passing 90%. But KC is the benchmark.  If we ever want to sniff a SB we must run on them. Even if it's just 30-35% of the plays. Andy exploited this fact. Flood the secondary and blitz JA. It worked brilliantly. 

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

It is a mistake and a stupid use of the 53. I'm so tired of stashing a RB for only ST use.  80% of kickoffs end in touchbacks.  Most punts are "fair catch". You telling me Yeldon couldn't have played some on ST? Ridiculous. As Hapless pointed out we have to find the right OL combo to maximize our running lanes. Sure there will be teams (defenses) we can get by passing 90%. But KC is the benchmark.  If we ever want to sniff a SB we must run on them. Even if it's just 30-35% of the plays. Andy exploited this fact. Flood the secondary and blitz JA. It worked brilliantly. 

 

Jones had a total of 6 Combined Tackles all season.  I'm sure other players could of gotten most of those.

[freddyjj]

11 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Actually, Ritcher was a first round draft pick by Buffalo in 1980 by HC Chuck Knox (who was an O linemen in college himself) sat for a few seasons behind LG Reggie McKenzie who was part of the "Electric Co" for OJ. 

 

How good was that line when your first round pick doesn't start? 

 

McKenzie played 11 seasons for Buffalo and Ritcher 15 seasons. The Bills had Ruben Brown and recently Richie Incognito who were also all pro's at LG. 

 

The Bills need to find some of those types for the line. 

my bad I meant Ritcher started all the years Frerotte was here

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1. Cut Morse

2. Bring back Feliciano at C and Williams at OT

3. Ford at LG

4. Boetgger at RG

5. Moss is the starter with 65% of the snaps; Singletary gets 30%

6. Draft a pass catching RB in the 4th round

7. Draft the long term replacement at C in round 1-3

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

1. Cut Morse

2. Bring back Feliciano at C and Williams at OT

3. Ford at LG

4. Boetgger at RG

5. Moss is the starter with 65% of the snaps; Singletary gets 30%

6. Draft a pass catching RB in the 4th round

7. Draft the long term replacement at C in round 1-3

 

Serious questions:

1) We have to maintain the pass protection as well and above all maintain good snaps. How do you feel moving Mongo to C impacts this, and why?

2) There are a bunch of film breakdowns out there of Ford's play at LG this season.  First 6 games with Ford at LG, we averaged. 95 yds on the ground.  What is there on film or in statistics that leads you to believe Ford is the answer at LG?

3) Boettger at LG seemed good at pass protection, but what did you see in the run game that inclines you to believe he would constitute an improvement at RG?

 

Remember the question here is how to improve the run game, not how to move the pieces around and get rid of Morse.

[Chicharito]

Any rb that has quickness and speed will do. Singletary and moss both run like they have cinder blocks as feet! Our run game is based on inside rushing attack and neither can hit the holes fast enough. 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

You need a true 3 down back that can catch passes out of the backfield and keep him in for all 3 downs.

 

This adds to the element of surprise in the defense isn't sure whether your going to run or pass.

 

I'm thinking someone like Jonathan Taylor.

 

Daboll also needs to use this back in more checkdowns.

 

You also need a true pass catching tight end thats an offensive weapon. This TE needs to develop a real synergy with Josh. Think of a Ertz or a rookie like him.

 

This will take a LB out of the box in pass coverage opening up the running game.

 

So more element of surprise with 3 down back and true pass catching TE

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

You need a true 3 down back that can catch passes out of the backfield and keep him in for all 3 downs.

 

Buffalo ran a total of 8 snaps this season where we didn't have a RB on the field.  I think I saw Motor split wide a few times, but not often.

Interestingly, 3 of them were on 3rd down and 1 was a successful run play.

You can rummage about here if you're curious.

 

25 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

This adds to the element of surprise in the defense isn't sure whether your going to run or pass.

 

I believe there was a distinct lack of surprise as to whether we'd execute a run play with our backs, but I'm not sure that keeping a back in (or not) or inability to catch passes out of the backfield was part of it.   I think that formation (under center vs shotgun) and down and distance had a lot more to do with the predictability. 

 

25 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

Daboll also needs to use this back in more checkdowns.

 

Do you watch much all-22 or film breakdown stuff?

 

I'm asking because when I do, Daboll almost always has a checkdown option to a back or TE (or both) designed into the play.  And most of the time they are open enough for substantial YAC.

 

The problem isn't Daboll, it's partly the way Allen thinks.  I've never seen a QB more reluctant to throw to a wide-open checkdown receiver.  What we don't know is why?  Is it that he's still looking for the kill shot?   Does he still not trust himself to make those throws?  Does he not trust Knox and Singletary to catch them?

 

25 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

You also need a true pass catching tight end thats an offensive weapon. This TE needs to develop a real synergy with Josh. Think of a Ertz or a rookie like him.

 

Here is what I think your valid point is: we have neither a pass catching RB nor a pass catching TE that scares a defense, nor that gets utilized enough when perhaps they could.

[njbuff]

Trade for Zeke Elliott. 😁

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/30/2021 at 1:29 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Definitely a worthwhile read for his perspective, but IMO, I think he's getting sucked into the Analytics forest and never looking at the trees.

He lost me right here:

 

Cover1 (who knows a thing bout run schemes) and Eric Wood (who knows a thing about run blocking) have both broken down plays that worked, and plays that didn't work.  The run blocking was most definitely a problem at times and did NOT pass the eye test.  At other times, it was fine.  The problem is, the times it did not came against the better run-stopping or just overall DLs in the league.

 

There are times when, to Daboll's own admission, "I need to design better plays the players can execute".  But part of that is plays THESE players can execute, and at some point, you need players who can execute a wider vocabulary of plays.  I wouldn't want to absolve Daboll of needing to make better play choice decisions, but if the OL can't block for outside zone to the L much less up the middle, there's not a lot of vocabulary words.

 

Plenty of blame to go around IMO.

 

To this point, some run play clips from Erik Turner's twitter showing how crap blocking impacted success.

Exhibit A.  I don't know what Knox thinks he's supposed to be doing, but I think the guy who designed the play thinks he's supposed to be blocking Wilkins or Baker

 

 

When the blocking is so bad that the former RB tweeting the play isn't sure what it was supposed to be, that's a problem

 

This is Feliciano getting totally blown up. Bear in mind we don't know whose error it was.

 

And last but not least to my question about Power vs Zone runs, Turner confirms that it was NOT part of our run game this year.

However, I'm surprised at how much of the run game it was last season at 60%!

 

 

I watch all-22 and try to figure out the blocking scheme on run plays (especially blown up run plays).  I also watch film breakdowns.

 

I can tell you that anyone who starts out an analysis of our run game with "Let’s absolve the Bills’ offensive line of any blame before we continue." is living in a Falling Credibility Zone.  I don't know what they're watching, but actual game tape of 2020 Bills run plays is Not That Thing.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Those all 22 videos are cringeworthy. Disjointed awful execution.