Buffalo Bills Offseason Primer. State of the Bills.

[MAJBobby]

All as we are not in the offseason.  I will continue my offseason primers for the position groups.  But before I start those I wanted to write on on the State of the Franchise kind of just setting the ton big picture before getting into each of the position group breakdowns.  As you can see I wrote this with the mindset of the unknown of the cap so it is really big picture on were money can be saved and an initial thinking on the UFAs.  So it is a bit long, But hope you enjoy, will look at all suggestions before I get into my in depth position Group Primers down the line. (Likely starting next month).

 

Projected Cap Space:  2,649,343 (based on a 175M cap number, cap floor already agreed to)

Players Under Contract: 41

 

As you can see by above Bills will have to be very smart this offseason on Money.  There are some places to gain cap space, while not adding a hole, and then of course the cuts.  But I will start with the UFAs on how I feel about each.

 

Possible Restructures:

Stefon Diggs: - 12.25M  cap – 11M of base is guaranteed, making a simple restructure easy convert that 11M base into a signing bonus and allocate over the next 3 years.  Will save about 7M next year on cap just doing that without changing anything else.  There could be more gained with a restructure and adding years and money.  Why Diggs would do this, he doesn’t have any guarantees money in 22-24, so Can dangle the 2022 salary being fully guaranteed to get his number lower in 2021 (similar to the post trade restructure guaranteeing 2021 salary.

 

There are others that can kick the can down the road by converting base salary to bonus like Dawkins and Tre, but I would rather not do that this offseason if at all possible.

 

UFAs:

Trent Murphy, 31 DE – Murphy will walk.  I do not see Buffalo bring a guy back that was a healthy scratch most of the season and activated based on specific matchups.  That you can do with someone on a small deal or rookie contract not someone in the 7M range.  Additionally, you are going to see a theme to become less specialized this offseason and moving on from one trick pony type players.  I understand the DL Rotation we employ but you cannot even be in the rotation when you are scratched.  Darryl Johnson has taken his spot in the rotation, and that is your replacement for the back roster DE rotation. 

 

Tyler Kroft, 29 TE – Kroft See above.  When you are a healthy scratch most of the season while carrying a 6M+ Cap number you will not be re-singed in the offseason.  With Knox coming on late in the season Kroft will walk.  TE grouping needs an overhaul and it starts here with letting Kroft walk.

 

John Norman, 34 CB – Too old, too slow to expensive.  Bills took a 6M swing here and missed.  They need to get at least ONE man CB, likely many, I am fine with Tre White (more Zone than Man guy) But that will work if you have a man guy on the other end.  Chiefs exposed our secondary (not all on Secondary the DL shares a lot of blame here, when you are not getting pressure ANY WR can find a hole in a Zone based defense).  Just another old expensive player that brings no value.

 

Ty Nsekhe, 36 OT – Too old, time to move on and fill a swing tackle position with the young players Nothing bad on Ty other than this is an age and cap squeeze move.

 

Jon Feliciano, 29 OG – Now this is the first one I have had to think about a lot.  He seems like he likes it in Buffalo and loves Allen and the rest of the team, so that might help with the offseason stuff.  I think a 3-year 5M AAV contract will be enough to keep him.  Probably our best Run Blocking OL.  Now here comes the hard part.  With Cody Ford coming back, Bates still on roster, Ike Boettger likely back on at least a RFA deal, there can be an argument to save that cap space and move on.  I think anything more than 5M AAV and I am moving on.  That is right about where his value should be.

 

Brian Winters, 30 OG – Depth OG, cannot pay 3M+ on a depth OG specially in a depressed Cap year.  His role needs to be filled by the youth on the team and spent this entire year on the PS. 

 

Andre Roberts, 33 ST – Offers Nothing as a WR, strictly a return man, I could see him back on a Veteran Minimum contract, but I think someone with a lot of space is going to overpay his return skills.  If I had to choose and I think the Bills will have to choose I take McKenzie over Roberts at this point.  McKenzie has juice returning and adds to the offense, so I think I let Roberts walk.

 

Daryl Williams, 29 OT – Here is another hard one, I think I would like him back at about 5-7M AAV, but I also think he will get more than that on the open market.  Unlike Norman coming to Buffalo to revitalize and get that last multiyear contract worked for Williams. I am good with Williams coming back at the number that I previously mentioned; However, I think I prefer to go with youth here at this point and I think we have some on the roster and can address in the draft.  But I am good ither way with him being resigned or let walk.

 

Matt Barkley, 31 QB – Time to go Matt, this is Josh’s team and time to end the vet in the room, that is Josh.  BU will be the winner of Fromm and Webb.

 

Taiwan Jones 33, ST – Not much else to say here than good luck on your next stop, there just is not a need for him anymore.

 

T.J. Yeldon, 28 RB – No Value here moving on.

 

Dean Marlowe 29 SS – Veteran SS/LB/NB I think they would like him back and I do not think there is going to be a major cap increase from his 1.5M to bring him back either.  

 

Isaiah McKenzie, 26 WR – McKenzie is a player I do re-sign.  He can play the Andre Roberts role returning on ST.  Offers a skill set at WR that we do not have with the open field quickness.  Went away from his packages in the playoffs and I think you saw the offense struggle because of that.  I think a 4-year deal with 2-3M AAV will be enough to keep him here. IMO this will be once of the first players re-signed this offseason.

 

Levi Wallace – RFA, 26 CB – Original Round Tender and will be back, though I really think it is time for him to claim the CB2 or move on, either way provides cheap depth in DB if he cannot secure the starting job. 

 

Andre Smith – RFA, 24 ST/LB – Original Round Tender, will likely come back is a ST ace and could help with freeing up some money with the cuts.  Bills will have to free money hopefully the cap is higher than the current projected floor.

 

Del’Shawn Phillips, 25 LB – I do not think there is nothing here will be nothing more than the Veteran Minimum, guess could come back on that cheap deal until camp and then cut but I just don’t see anything here and able to move on.

 

Matt Milano (Spotrac Market Value – 13.8M AAV), 26 LB – At 13.8M AAV the decision is easy, move on.  I even debate 8-10M and think Bills should move on from anything over 9M.  Yes, he makes splash plays, but also plays the easiest LBer position on the field at the Will.  I do think the Bills would love to keep him.  I just think he is going to outprice what his value is, and this is when good GMs stick to their value.  I put Milanos at 6-9M a yar and that is why I am moving on if that price passes 9.  These are those decisions that must be made.  I am not paying 13M to a Will LBer.  This is going to be the interesting one to watch this offseason on where the Bills go.  I do think his production at Will can be replaced cheaper.  Maybe is INJ history allows Bills to get him more in his true value of below 9M a year. 

 

Corey Bojorquez – RFA, 25, P – Part of me says if you do the long-term deal not, in 2 years that contract to production will be one of the better on the team.  Something like 5 years with a 1.75M AAV and w are good.  Not the other part of me says just go original round tender this year and make sure the consistency is not just a one-year thing, and he does not revert, but at end of day is a punter so 1.75M on a long-term deal does not hurt this team at all, instead provides that stability will on a team Friendly deal. 

 

Ike Boettger – RFA, 27 OG – I think he solidified a spot on this team as a swing OG and maybe the replacement to Feliciano (there is something you can do with Felicano if re-signed that I will talk later).  I do think you can easily get him under contract for 3 years 9M, so about a 3M AAV, that is a good price for the swing OG, and a real good contract if he takes a starting OG spot.  Other option here is obviously the RFA Tender, I think the 2nd round tender is what would be given to him, that should keep him in Buffalo but if someone signs over that tender, I think the Bills would then have a decision is the 2nd round pick more valuable than Ike, I think they would answer that yes, especially once Allen gets paid, Drafting is going to become more vital than already is.

 

Cut/Trade Candidates:

 

John Brown, 31 yrs – Savings 7.9M – I have a feeling I may be in the minority here, but John Brown IMO played his last down as a Bill.  The age, INJ History and Cap number all are against him.  He could be a contract redo, with adding a year, lowering total number and cap hits (ala Star) essentially a paycut.  But with the Diggs trade, Davis performing well in his absence as a rookie, and then Hodgins coming off Red Shirt year I think Brown is the WR that could move on.  I do not think he gets outright cut, instead I think that there is value with him, and he could be traded.  Look at a Team like JAX, going to get a Rookie QB, would they not toss over a 3rd for Brown to get with Lawrence for a year, he will be their best WR the minute he steps on the field down there.  He has a 500K bonus due the 5th day of the new league year.  But even that number is not prohibitive if they pick it up then trade him closer to the draft.  His contract was set up for this decision point. 

 

Lee Smith, 34 – Savings 2.25M – Little torn on this one, played well this year, when called on, seemed to stop the Lee Smith Penalties every game.  So, keeping him for another year at 2.25M is fine with me, though this position needs upgraded, and In a tight cap years every savings will count, I do think we can get the same production as Smith offers at a cheaper number.

 

Mitch Morse, 29 – Savings 4.8M – Now this gets into the Feliciano discussion, could use the cap saving this year and re-sign Feliciano I think at around 5M, then you have Feliciano at Center.  This one is hard for me because he is good but did get another concussion on what looked like a real mundane play.  Either way the Bills Do have to start planning for life after Mitch Morse, and I think that could start this year.  I don’t think I move on from him this year UNLESS they absolutely need the space.

 

Mario Addison, 34 – Savings 6.1M – I think this is a paycut candidate, and if he doesn’t accept he will be cut.  I did not see enough justification to bring him back at a 10M cap hit.  His contract was structured with the Out after this season and I think the Bills take it, instead of repeating their same mistake that they made with Tent Murphy.

 

Jerry Hughes, 33 – Savings 7.3M – To be honest I think there will be trade value here as well, but I put Jerry in this list for one reason and one reason only the cap savings, age, and production.  Jerry could easily be up in the restructure area too, lowering his cap number and adding voidable years.  But I do think there needs to be a long discussion on Jerry, but if the Bills cut Addison and some of the other bloated contracts on the DL, Hughes could likely say, his production has been good enough to justify next year’s cap number.

 

Quinton Jefferson, 28 – Savings 6.5M – While a good player and still relatively young, can his production be replaced at a smaller cap number (specially with Star coming back maybe, reason I say that is does he want to play again after being off a year, there will not be any savings cutting Star so he is on the team if he wants to play).  I think the decision here must be between Butler, Jefferson, and Star.  Jefferson will bring some trade value too; however, it is unlikely he is cut this offseason and instead will play on his 8M cap hit final year.

 

Vernon Butler, 27 – Savings 6.8M – Just by looking at the savings number it is the same with Jefferson.  I also think there is some trade value here as well, DL is going to be heavy on this list because I think that was the biggest issue with the defense all year was the DL.  So there needs to be those discussions, with the 4 listed the savings would be 26.7M in space, and so the question is can the production of this DL be replicated or improved with that space? I think it can.)

 

AJ Klein, 30 – Savings 2.4M – Came on near the end of the year one he found his role in the defense.  However, I am not sure that role will justify the 6.4M cap hit next year, IMO he could get cut to free some money for Milano if they want to re-sign Milano.  I this this screams an after draft cut if anything, next year is the Real out though so likely could say this coming year.

 

Tyler Matakevich, 29 – Savings 3.5M – Another I think will stick around, his 3.7M cap hit isn’t bad, provides OK depth, and also really good on ST.  But again, in a tight cap year I wanted to show all the areas to free space.

 

Jordan Poyer, 29 – Savings 5.875 – I don’t think he gets cut or traded (more likely as there is value there), However the way the contract is structured is with that decision in mind.  On the 5th day of the new league here 4.775M of his salary becomes Fully Guaranteed.  So, there will be a discussion and a decision on what to do with him, they made the contract in such a way to do that.  I am not sure Johnson is ready to take this role, so I don’t see Poyer going anywhere next year.

 

Micah Hyde, 31 – Savings 6.1M – I think Hyde’s play slipped this year, I don’t think he was a good this year as in past years.  This could be a surprise move via cut or trade, mor likely might work an extension to lower his number.  There is 500K due on the leagues 5th day, but I don’t think that stops them from doing anything if they want to move on from Hyde.  But there is a decision on these two safeties that must happen soon with them.  I could see a Hyde extension like Poyer adding years and lowering the cap hit.

 

Draft Pick Decisions:

 

Tremaine Edmunds – I am not sure I am extending him at this point.  I do think you pick up the 5th year option for 2022.  Then let him play this year to see if he earns that long term extension.  I think he has done enough (I know there are many that don’t like him) To have his 5th year option picked up and go from there.

 

Josh Allen – To me this is a no brainer, pay him.  I think you pick his 5th year option up at the deadline (if you have to) but this is the No one move I think that needs to happen early in the Offseason.  Give him that Long Term contract extension and set the cap hits in the future years so Beane knows what he has to play with.  I don’t think you wait here, I think this is the FIRST contract you get done so you know the status of your cap in the out years.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Thanks for doing this!

 

Agree with most all of it.

 

I think Morse is gone and our interior is (l-R) Boettger, Feliciano, Ford.

 

Disagree about the LBs, not necessarily a value statement, but Milano will be signed, Edmunds will be extended after Allen.

 

 

[clayboy54]

I really like your synopsis here Bobby. I am in agreement across the board.

 

I do think that a lot depends on whether we roll with Frazier for next season, or move on, whether by choice or by necessity. Its kind of nice that if we have a new defensive coordinator and scheme, we have a ton of flexibility in personnel. So, if we lose Frazier, we can make some substantial changes across the entire defense and begin the 2021 season fresh on that side of the ball. On the other hand, if Frazier stays, then I think we'll see most of what you described.

[dave mcbride]

Thanks, man, although you appear to have the wrong Addison numbers. The cap savings according to Sportrac is $8 million, not $6.1.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/mario-addison-8871/ 

[LittleSammy]

It is a great feeling to be having this discussion at the end of January vs. just after Halloween like we have for the last 25+ years.

[H2o]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Thanks, man, although you appear to have the wrong Addison numbers. The cap savings according to Sportrac is $8 million, not $6.1.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/mario-addison-8871/ 

He deducted the dead cap for 2021 off of the cap hit, hence the $6.1M freed up 

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, H2o said:

He deducted the dead cap for 2021 off of the cap hit, hence the $6.1M freed up 

The dead cap is $2 million, and the cap hit if he stays is $10 million. The difference is $8 million, with $8 million freed up if he's cut. What am I missing? 

Edited January 25, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Southtown Tommy]

Won't have to worry about Lee Smith - he is retiring.

[H2o]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The dead cap is $2 million, and the cap hit if he stays is $10 million. The difference is $8 million, with $8 million freed up if he's cut. What am I missing? 

The cap hit is right at $10.163M and the dead cap is $4M for 2021. 

[MWK]

Pretty much agree with everything here. Would love to have Milano and Williams back, but the cost will be too much. I think Feliciano is overrated and we shouldn't pay him too much, but I think we will unfortunately. Agree 100% on Edmunds. You would be insane to extend him based on how he has played. He is not a playmaker, he rarely makes any notable plays, and for someone so good at coverage, he gives up a whole lot of passes. Probably pick up the option and see what happens, but without major improvement, see ya. We have to cut Addison, Jefferson, and Butler. All three were overpays this offseason and they paid us back with minimal production. Cut your losses and move on. 

Edited January 25, 2021 by MWK

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, H2o said:

The cap hit is right at $10.163M and the dead cap is $4M for 2021. 

Oh, jeez. I was looking at 2022, not 2021. Apologies.

[MAJBobby]

12 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Thanks, man, although you appear to have the wrong Addison numbers. The cap savings according to Sportrac is $8 million, not $6.1.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/mario-addison-8871/ 

I used the 2021 line, I think you jumped a year

12 minutes ago, LittleSammy said:

It is a great feeling to be having this discussion at the end of January vs. just after Halloween like we have for the last 25+ years.

Exactly, messed up my timing on actually digging into this, but hey I will take it.  Next year they can really mess with my timing until after the SB win and I will be peachy happy.

6 minutes ago, Southtown Tommy said:

Won't have to worry about Lee Smith - he is retiring.

Has he said that?  I have not seen that written anywhere.  If so I woudnt fault him.

[Southtown Tommy]

2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I used the 2021 line, I think you jumped a year

Exactly, messed up my timing on actually digging into this, but hey I will take it.  Next year they can really mess with my timing until after the SB win and I will be peachy happy.

Has he said that?  I have not seen that written anywhere.  If so I woudnt fault him.

He hasn't said it publicly, but this is his last season.

[MAJBobby]

Any Specific Position group anyone would like me to start with?  Pretty slow day today in the defense contracting world and might just knock another out.

Edited January 25, 2021 by MAJBobby

[BuffaloRebound]

Wasn’t Wallace an undrafted free agent?  Gonna have to 2nd round tender him or else a team will sign him.  Still think he’s worth the $2-3m for the 2nd round tender.  

[MAJBobby]

Just now, BuffaloRebound said:

Wasn’t Wallace an undrafted free agent?  Gonna have to 2nd round tender him or else a team will sign him.  Still think he’s worth the $2-3m for the 2nd round tender.  

Yes he was a UDFA.  Most likely the 2nd round tender will be used to be honest.  Typically get more in depth like that on the positional group breakdowns, But I do think he gets a tender and not a LTD this offseason.

[The Frankish Reich]

51 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

All as we are not in the offseason.  I will continue my offseason primers for the position groups.  But before I start those I wanted to write on on the State of the Franchise kind of just setting the ton big picture before getting into each of the position group breakdowns.  As you can see I wrote this with the mindset of the unknown of the cap so it is really big picture on were money can be saved and an initial thinking on the UFAs.  So it is a bit long, But hope you enjoy, will look at all suggestions before I get into my in depth position Group Primers down the line. (Likely starting next month).

 

Projected Cap Space:  2,649,343 (based on a 175M cap number, cap floor already agreed to)

Players Under Contract: 41

 

As you can see by above Bills will have to be very smart this offseason on Money.  There are some places to gain cap space, while not adding a hole, and then of course the cuts.  But I will start with the UFAs on how I feel about each.

Fantastic summary. Thanks for putting this together.

I can't really disagree with your takes on any of the players listed here, and I'd be surprised if we get any serious arguments to the contrary. But we shall see ...

[Success]

The OP is absolutely outstanding. What a great detailed breakdown.

 

It really puts you in the GM's shoes; there is so much more than "we need an RB and pass rusher."  So many crucial and borderline decisions to make.

 

Gotta say - I agree with just about all of the takes here.  It will be hard to lose some guys.  I love players like Smoke & Hughes, but sometimes, it's just time to move on, and it may be w/ them and others.  

 

I hate to bring up he-who-must-not-be-named, but BB set the blueprint on stuff like this. Better to let a guy go a little early than a little late.

 

[MAJBobby]

Just now, The Frankish Reich said:

Fantastic summary. Thanks for putting this together.

I can't really disagree with your takes on any of the players listed here, and I'd be surprised if we get any serious arguments to the contrary. But we shall see ...

Appreciate it.  I know some of the position group discussions as I actually lay our what I would do with each can get kind of heated (have in the past anyway) because I tend not to play nostalgia of players living on the past makes teams IMO make some bad decisions when it comes to declining assets.  NE has mastered this, always tend to move on from a player maybe a year to early, where as the Bills in the past seem to move on from them years to late.  I think there are older tradable assets that can be moved and will talk that in the individual groups, because I then list the replacement plans.

[Lagoon Blues]

Would like to use draft picks elsewhere but as important as the safety position is in this D we need to get some young blue chip talent in to groom.  Love our safetys but getting up there and its starting to show slightly as you mentioned.

Edited January 25, 2021 by Lagoon Blues