2020 Season Post Mortem: talent, coaching, or scheme hump we need to get over?

[34-78-83]

I think a "re-tooling" is in order for this off season. For the most part, the Bills have a very strong roster. Certainly their roster is strong enough to compete on par with any team in the league other than KC. For the upper tier teams, the cap and having to pay an elite QB makes it so that no team can be absent of flaws, although for now, KC is very close. I feel like while there may be needs in a number of areas for the Bills, the two primary focus areas should be on the lines of scrimmage. A difference making edge rusher DE and/or a "plugger" DT would help a great deal, as would another offensive lineman or 2. Our line played well in pass pro for the season, but it appears that some of it was surely assisted by Allen's athleticism and they certainly weren't great last night vs. KC. When it comes to run blocking, our line left a lot to be desired. Keeping in mind that its more difficult to run out of spread formations, still our backs were often stopped in the backfield, and far too often to at least maintain the "threat" of a running game. Yes for sure we are a passing team now and should stay that way, but this will allow them to be much harder to defend.

 

As for coaching and strategy, I hope our coaching staff learned after last night that as the heat turns up in the playoffs round by round, the refs keep their whistles in their pockets more and more often in terms of flagging grabbing and holding by defenders. Its on our coaches for not adjusting to or anticipating this. This was the reason our receivers were covered like a blanket all night. And we don't have the types of receivers who can easily break handsy press coverage for the most part. If we get back to this game next year, our defense needs to play that way, laying hands on the opponent in coverage to keep them in check if we face another high powered offense. And our offense needs to have a plan of attack for getting off the line vs. overzealous press coverage (maybe more crossers and rub routes? More horizontal game ie. McKenzie's role). 

Edited January 25, 2021 by 34-78-83

[Nihilarian]

What I see in the Chiefs was a team that simply wanted to coast through the season doing as little as possible to win each game. All the while just wanting to get to the playoffs as healthy as they could. 

 

Look at the wins since their bye week, Raiders 4 pts, BUCS 3 pts, Broncos 6 pts, Miami 6pts, NO 3 pts, Atlanta 3pts, Chargers week 17, 21-38, granted the most since week 7 Denver, 17 pts. 

 

Playoffs, Cleveland 22-17 and then Buffalo 38-24. it looked like KC was lying in the weeds and just outplayed Buffalo in every aspect, Offense, defense and special teams. 

 

The Chiefs beat the Tampa Bay Bucs in week 12 @ Tampa Bay. Interesting! 

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Niagara Dude said:

How about you answer how much would you pay Milano? If he were that great 31 YEAR old Kelce would not have been running all of the field uncovered yesterday.  Someone said he was great last week and i said talk with me after the Chiefs game,  he is solid/good LB but not great or elite

 

I'm not one of those money/CAP experts, but saying that one of your 2 or 3 most consistent defensive players who's only going to be 27 at the start of next year should just be let go of is silly.

 

To me you need to categorize Milano and then pay him top 5 probably at his position.  The hard part is categorizing him.  Milano is classified as "OLB," but so is Khalil Mack.  And hell no should Milano be paid like Mack because they don't play the same position even if both are classified as "OLB."  So find the other LBs in the NFL who aren't in the "edge rusher" category the way Mack and Von Miller are and then pay him in the top 5 of that with some clauses in there in terms of injury.

 

That's what I think they should/will do.  Milano is homegrown talent and he really was one of the best--if not the best--defensive players on the field this year. 

[Magox]

49 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The Singletary drop was big.  Diggs had a drop at one point, too.

 

But the Chiefs had a couple drops, too.  

 

The Diggs drop wasn't a turning point of the game sort of drop and frankly, that drop was excusable as he was hammered on that play.  The Singletary drop not only was an easy catch to make, but it was hugely important.  We were up 9-7 after KC had just easily marched down the field to score.  If Singletary makes that catch we get a first down most likely inside their 40 yard line.  Who knows what would have happened at that point and how that would have altered the end result of the game.  Most likely they still win but nevertheless it was a momentum killer.  

[spartacus]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I see a lot of people saying Josh was bad yesterday and turned into "Sugar High Josh," but every time they were showing our WRs they were just blanketed with coverage.

 

What was Josh supposed to do?  To me, if anything he should've started scrambling earlier and more since our WRs weren't bailing him out and our OL wasn't doing a great job.  Yes, he took bad sacks and lost too much yardage, but I didn't think that was "Sugar High Josh..." it was him realizing that he had to carry the team on his shoulders yesterday for the team to have any shot.

just like KC did on numerous plays, Dabol should have rolled the pocket

then slow released a RB or TE 7-15 yds downfield 

3 hours ago, 34-78-83 said:

I think a "re-tooling" is in order for this off season. For the most part, the Bills have a very strong roster. Certainly their roster is strong enough to compete on par with any team in the league other than KC. For the upper tier teams, the cap and having to pay an elite QB makes it so that no team can be absent of flaws, although for now, KC is very close. I feel like while there may be needs in a number of areas for the Bills, the two primary focus areas should be on the lines of scrimmage. A difference making edge rusher DE and/or a "plugger" DT would help a great deal, as would another offensive lineman or 2. Our line played well in pass pro for the season, but it appears that some of it was surely assisted by Allen's athleticism and they certainly weren't great last night vs. KC. When it comes to run blocking, our line left a lot to be desired. Keeping in mind that its more difficult to run out of spread formations, still our backs were often stopped in the backfield, and far too often to at least maintain the "threat" of a running game. Yes for sure we are a passing team now and should stay that way, but this will allow them to be much harder to defend.

 

As for coaching and strategy, I hope our coaching staff learned after last night that as the heat turns up in the playoffs round by round, the refs keep their whistles in their pockets more and more often in terms of flagging grabbing and holding by defenders. Its on our coaches for not adjusting to or anticipating this. This was the reason our receivers were covered like a blanket all night. And we don't have the types of receivers who can easily break handsy press coverage for the most part. If we get back to this game next year, our defense needs to play that way, laying hands on the opponent in coverage to keep them in check if we face another high powered offense. And our offense needs to have a plan of attack for getting off the line vs. overzealous press coverage (maybe more crossers and rub routes? More horizontal game ie. McKenzie's role). 

screens, draws and reverses  work wonders to exploit jail break pass  rush

not sure why these are never called

 

[Georgia Bill]

I think it will be very interesting to see if the Bucs can find a way to beat the Chiefs or at least significantly slow their offensive fireworks.  If they do - start figuring out how to copy that.  Also, what is with all the Andy Reid coaching genius love?  Sure he won one Super Bowl, but he also got his team into the playoffs lots of times and couldn't get there, and to 5 NFC championship teams, but his record in those was 1-4.  If we end up 1-4 in AFC championship games with McDermott, is he going to go down as a genius?  Fans here would be roasting him alive.

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

It is a bit of all 3. 

 

1. We don't have as much elite talent as KC. 

2. We don't have the experience they have in terms of coaching (those FG decisions McDermott made last night I don't love... but you know who lost a load of Championship games on baffling game management decisions early in his career as a Head Coach? Andy Reid)

3. Schematically we just do not match up that well against KC - they will have to find a better plan on offense for attacking Spags's defense but defensively... I honestly don't know what the answer is. You can't play man against Mahomes. The few snaps we tried it last night he burned us. We don't have good enough athletes to effectively play zone. 

 

But look, we have closed the gap in the last year. We have to stay the course. We will be back because we are too talented and too well coached for 90% of the NFL. We have to find a way to crack through that last 10%. 

 

 

Nicely put.

 

Worth remembering that KC lost it's first conference championship game with Mahomes in 2018. Experience helped him and should help us.

 

Josh will have to develop more. A still-existing tendency towards hero ball rather than playing within the system hurt him.

 

We probably need a big nickel as well. Taron's a good nickel, but not a big nickel.

 

Kelce hurt us by continuing drives consistently, but Tyreek killed us. As he kills everybody. Mahomes was doing what Josh should have done, playing the short and medium game, but Tyreek could turn those into insane gains.

 

A bit more work on the OL, another draft and another year of development for everyone ....

Edited January 26, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Magox said:

 

The Diggs drop wasn't a turning point of the game sort of drop and frankly, that drop was excusable as he was hammered on that play.  The Singletary drop not only was an easy catch to make, but it was hugely important.  We were up 9-7 after KC had just easily marched down the field to score.  If Singletary makes that catch we get a first down most likely inside their 40 yard line.  Who knows what would have happened at that point and how that would have altered the end result of the game.  Most likely they still win but nevertheless it was a momentum killer.  

 

 

I politely disagree.

 

I mean, yeah, it was a momentum killer. And we had momentum killers on how many other drives? So so many. Sacks, throws that weren't quite there, runs that were met by three defenders ... it just went on and on. And the same on D, missed tackles on third downs ...

 

Singletary seems to be the new scapegoat here, and that sure wasn't a good play, but there were a lot of bad plays on our side.

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:

How about you answer how much would you pay Milano? If he were that great 31 YEAR old Kelce would not have been running all of the field uncovered yesterday.  Someone said he was great last week and i said talk with me after the Chiefs game,  he is solid/good LB but not great or elite

 

 

Which LBs covered Kelce this year? The guy is uncoverable. You have to scheme him, whether it's doubling or hitting him as he comes off the line, or both. Milano is terrific. But you can't expect him to do what nobody else in the NFL can do either and then if he doesn't do it blame him. Makes no sense.

 

18 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

They need game changers.... they hit on Allen and White who are all pros. Outside of that they’ve drafted few solid players but nothing spectacular.... they need a home run..... specifically on the defensive line or another playmaker on offense, IMO. 

 

 

I wouldn't mind, though you left out Dawkins as well as far as being a game changer. And as for all pros, two is pretty good in four years. If you count 1st and 2nd team, there are only 44 all pros on 32 teams and very very few maintain that kind of level.

 

IMO their pass defense has difference makers. But not so much on the DL. A bit stronger rush, one more guy who can win the individual battles and that D would be really really good. They're already very good, but with KC you need to put them under pressure with your offense .. and then rush Mahomes with four, though he handles that pretty well too.

Edited January 26, 2021 by Thurman#1

[transplantbillsfan]

So I think this might answer some of the question of "what we do" in the offseason to catch up to KC:

https://theathletic.com/2354616/2021/01/29/buffalo-bills-kansas-city-chiefs-all-22?source=user-shared-article

Though, Feliciano wasn’t the only member of the offensive line at fault. Center Mitch Morse and left guard Ike Boettger also struggled with pass protection and in providing enough of a push to establish the running game.

The last part of their struggles is the most important both to the undoing of the matchup and moving forward. The Bills weren’t able to run the ball with their preferred power scheme consistently at all during the season. Without that trio winning their matchup against a lighter defensive set, it clogged up the rushing lanes. It prevented either Devin Singletary or T.J. Yeldon from taking pressure off Josh Allen, which then allowed the Chiefs to get creative with their blitz calls, knowing that the Bills were more than likely to pass on every down.

 

It wasn’t only Feliciano, Morse and Boettger’s fault that the running game didn’t work even when they attempted, but that’s where the conversation begins moving forward. The Chiefs have excellent defensive players like Jones, safety Tyrann Mathieu and safety Juan Thornhill that helped execute the strategy, but this is the next defensive formation Allen and the Bills have to prove they can beat as an offense. Allen cannot do it alone when defenses utilize that strategy, which means when teams are daring the Bills to run, they have to prove they can do so.

 

If successful, it makes the defense want to adjust by putting a second linebacker in the game, which then helps open up space for the passing game. It doesn’t mean the Bills have to become a balanced or run-heavy team. They should still have their offense work through Allen because he is their most straightforward path to victory. However, they also need a complementary running game moving forward when necessary, and that starts with the blocking up front.

 

We could see some massive changes on the offensive line, with at least two new starters starting five against the Chiefs. Dion Dawkins is rightfully a lock at left tackle, but that’s the only sure thing. The Bills run a power run scheme, have signed, drafted and developed offensive linemen (Feliciano, Cody Ford, Ty Nsekhe) and a running back (Zack Moss) with that in mind, and have a starting center in Morse better suited for a more athletic scheme. If the Bills continue along with the power scheme, the nonperfect fit, Morse’s concussion history and the potential cap savings to keep a more scheme-friendly player could be enough for the Bills to move on this offseason. Ford is likely to be a starter, the Bills could re-sign Feliciano or right tackle Daryl Williams with the Morse savings (~$5 million) as a significant chunk. That would then leave them with two more starting spots to fill — whether it be with Boettger, Ryan Bates, draft picks or a free agent. Regardless of the course, the offensive line is one of the most significant offseason pieces to track to help the running game.

 

 

Combined with:

Starter John Brown, who played more snaps than any other receiver on the roster, gave the Bills little to nothing in his separation skills against man-to-man coverage. In fairness, Brown had gone on injured reserve during the season to deal with a high ankle sprain, but he has been back for over a month to this point. His releases were slow without any explosiveness, they invited the cornerbacks to get physical with him and Brown lacks the strength to work through the contact. It led to far too many of his routes being covered up and pressured Diggs and Cole Beasley to pick up the slack.

...

With Brown’s disappointing season, a sudden decline in his abilities, the in-house replacement in Gabriel Davis and the substantial cap savings (~$8 million), Brown may have played his last game with the Bills.

 

 

 

So cutting just Brown and Morse next year alone saves us $13million off the Cap, which we can use this offseason to resign players we should resign like Feliciano OR Williams along with Milano (good snippet in this article about how Milano basically made Edmunds look LESS bad against KC than he really was) and the inevitable large extension of Josh.

 

Mitch Morse and John Brown were good players for us while we had them, but I don't think either have enough good years left in the tank to compensate for that $13 million we'd save cutting them.

[Thurman#1]

IMO ...

 

Talent/Coaching/Scheme: 50/10/10

 

And the other 30% comes from further development and improvement.

[transplantbillsfan]

23 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I think they need another playmaker or two on the defensive line. Addison isn’t that, neither is Jefferson and Hughes is closing in on 35. Not sure where they get it from. Beane is going to have to get creative. 
 

Also think they need a better corner opposite White. Someone who can play both man and zone coverage well. This defense isn’t “very good”. Honestly wouldn’t be opposed to Frazier being let go and get a fresh defensive mind in there. They got exposed against the better QBs and offensive minds of the league all year. Rivers and Reich did whatever they wanted to this defense as did Mahomes and Reid.  

 

Big corner opposite Tre and another pass rusher for sure.

 

Edmunds needs to continue to develop. He played so well in the 2nd half of the season that I finally thought the light clicked on, but he was utterly horrible against KC. Then again, so was Tre.

 

I don't know the answer, but the positions I think we need to concentrate on in the offseason are RB, TE, OL and CB. Resign Milano. Cut Morse and Brown to save the $13 million and with a guy we never even saw this year cut in EJ Gaines we save $14 million off the Cap with the ability to use that towards resigning our own without missing much.

 

I honestly think getting Star back next year will be a huge help to the D, assuming he's motivated.

[PrimeTime101]

Guard I don't no where who or how's on this position but we need someone much better then what we have.

RB This thought that we can get by with mediocre RB's in league is just silliness. One of the top 3 RB's should be there at our first pick and I think either one will work.

WR Gosh I like Brown I really do BUT! at older age he is loosing speed and speed is what he needs to do what he can do. KC didn't respect that speed and it did not go unnoticed. Do to our cap situation I think we handle this situation different. Second round TE. Now I know what your saying but.. IF Davis fills in his shoes we go to next year with more of a 3 WR 1 TE scheme. With a solid TE that can catch a ball and blocks well too having Diggs, Davis, Beasley, top tier draft pick HB and a higher end TE in the game makes us more then one dimensional pass pass.. uh pass... Only other option is to restructure Brown and if I were Brown personally? no way..

DT Cuts are made here... Jefferson (6.5 mil saved) Butler (6.5+ mil saved)  Keep Phillips and Zimmer cheap and with that 13 mil go get Sheldon Rankins.. Spotrac has him at 11.3 mil a year... We make money on this deal he is 305 pounds.. and his skill set forces teams to double team him and the trickle effect will start making the rest of the line look much better.

EDGE Round 3 draft. we have to get better through the draft.. lets hope we score here.

LB This theory of if Milano goes or not goes putting Edmunds at OLB is just silly.. its the same theory people said about moving Dawkins to LG and getting a better LT.. not happening. IF Milano goes we will have a tough time replacing him. Milano is not great but he is solid maybe Reddick? 

 

Thoughts?

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by PrimeTime101

[Don Otreply]

It was a culmination of poor game plans on both sides of the ball, our four primary receivers playing injured didn’t help, our virtually nonexistent running game exasperating the poor offensive game plan.
 

Couple the above with an obvious inability or unwillingness to adjust the game plan during the game and you have your answer. 
 

It was a coaching failure first and foremost, it was using injured players that were unable to perform at levels required. It was not using players that were healthy and available.  
 

It was coaching decisions made throughout the playoffs that in the end bit them on the azs in the most important game of the season.  
 

Go Bills !!!

[foreboding]

On 1/25/2021 at 3:23 AM, Do The Reich Thing said:

 

Linebackers also need to be looked at. I don’t see any reason for us to offer a lucrative deal to Milano and we shouldn’t pick up the fifth year for Edmunds. Hindsight and looking back I wish we drafted Darius Leonard instead of him. I may be in the minority, but I don’t think Milano and Edmunds are any better than average. They aren’t game changers and you need a game changing leader at LB. They miss their gaps so many times. 

I think as Edmunds grows into himself and the game, he might end up elite. No way I let him walk yet.

[PrimeTime101]

20 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Guard I don't no where who or how's on this position but we need someone much better then what we have.

RB This thought that we can get by with mediocre RB's in league is just silliness. One of the top 3 RB's should be there at our first pick and I think either one will work.

WR Gosh I like Brown I really do BUT! at older age he is loosing speed and speed is what he needs to do what he can do. KC didn't respect that speed and it did not go unnoticed. Do to our cap situation I think we handle this situation different. Second round TE. Now I know what your saying but.. IF Davis fills in his shoes we go to next year with more of a 3 WR 1 TE scheme. With a solid TE that can catch a ball and blocks well too having Diggs, Davis, Beasley, top tier draft pick HB and a higher end TE in the game makes us more then one dimensional pass pass.. uh pass... Only other option is to restructure Brown and if I were Brown personally? no way..

DT Cuts are made here... Jefferson (6.5 mil saved) Butler (6.5+ mil saved)  Keep Phillips and Zimmer cheap and with that 13 mil go get Sheldon Rankins.. Spotrac has him at 11.3 mil a year... We make money on this deal he is 305 pounds.. and his skill set forces teams to double team him and the trickle effect will start making the rest of the line look much better.

EDGE Round 3 draft. we have to get better through the draft.. lets hope we score here.

LB This theory of if Milano goes or not goes putting Edmunds at OLB is just silly.. its the same theory people said about moving Dawkins to LG and getting a better LT.. not happening. IF Milano goes we will have a tough time replacing him. Milano is not great but he is solid maybe Reddick? 

 

Thoughts?

 

Thanks for merging another post that gets lost in the mix. Merge o Matic