2020 Season Post Mortem: talent, coaching, or scheme hump we need to get over?

[ALLEN1QB]

Question for you football smart guys out there defensively did we pretty much do the exact same thing as the first meeting?

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 hours ago, Jeff1954 said:

As mentioned above with our wide receivers, I would really like to know how many of our guys were carrying injuries today before making too many comments. There had to be some reason the coaches continued to let Kelse and Hill have so much room.

The season-long issues though are lack of a really effective pass rush outside Jerry Hughes, a running game which went from not that good to basically nonexistent, and run defence which ranged from iffy to appalling.

Despite these issues, the team had a terrific season, well beyond most of our expectations. There is continuity in the organisation, we have our franchise quarterback who will improve even further, and the needed culture change has been well and truly affected. Three trips to the playoffs in four years; with two playoff games won this year; show that this franchise is in a better place than it has been for decades.

When we get over today’s disappointment, we should all be able to enjoy  reflecting on a very successful year.

Yes, I am sure that all the wide receivers were banged up and operating at ~80%.   Realize the following:  If you pass the ball al the time, you wide recievers get a lot of hits and should be banged up by the end of the season. Might it be better to have our 310 pound offensive guards banging up their 180 pound defensive backs?   Another reason to have a balanced offence.

[Greg S]

For me its starts with the lines on both sides of the ball. Defensively we just don't generate pressure with the front 4. Look at TB yesterday and how they got to Rodgers. Offensively our O-line can't open up holes for the run and I also think Allen makes them look better in pass protection with his ability to escape the rush and buy time. Overall it was an outstanding season. 13-3 division champs, sweeping the division, winning 2 playoff games. This team has come a long way in the Beane/McDermott era. Beane will need to improve the roster to help us get by KC but the future is bright. As for McDermott last night wasn't a great one but its only his 4th season as HC. He is the type of person who I think will learn from it. Look how long it took Reid to get a ring. All those NFC championship losses with the Eagles and losses with the Chiefs until last year. Hopefully it doesn't take McDermott as long to get a ring as it took Reid though.

[Niagara Dude]

4 hours ago, Do The Reich Thing said:

IMO... this team is a reflection of the coaching staff. They preach process, process, process. And that’s cool and all... look I love McD and I think this staff has done a great job to get the team where it is today. He adapts after he reviews tape and has time to digest, but this staff severely lacks in-game adjustments. Maybe McD and co are great Monday-Saturday coaches, but they lack on game day. I was smh many times at the passive conservativeness today and stubbornness to stay the course. We showed no guts or passion today. 

Much like everyone else, I wanted to bang my head through a wall watching this soft shell zone get torched by the Chiefs. We kept rushing four and had guys wide open all over the field. McD didn’t change a thing coming out of half and left our players to rot. White looked like a 5th string CB out there today. If this guy is your franchise shutdown corner then you put him man to man on their best threat and tell him to shut them down. Jam his ass at the line and be physical. Will he win every battle? No, but he will win some, which was better than ZERO tonight. The whole defensive backfield got embarrassed tonight. 
 

On to another note, the inconsistencies of both our offensive and defensive lines plagued the team this year. JA covers up a lot of the offensive line mishaps and the defensive line generated no consistent pressure all year. The defensive line especially needs a hard reboot before next season. Beane will address this... I’m sure of it. 
 

Linebackers also need to be looked at. I don’t see any reason for us to offer a lucrative deal to Milano and we shouldn’t pick up the fifth year for Edmunds. Hindsight and looking back I wish we drafted Darius Leonard instead of him. I may be in the minority, but I don’t think Milano and Edmunds are any better than average. They aren’t game changers and you need a game changing leader at LB. They miss their gaps so many times. 
 

Offensively, JA needs to keep improving, which he will if his desire to be great stays there. Having him and Diggs long term will keep this team offensively competitive for a long time. He needs to get better and have more confidence in the big moments though. You can tell he’s not up to it quite yet in the big playoff moments yet. 
 

Most importantly they need to find a running game in the offseason. That’s on Daboll and scheme more than anything. Idk if the reasoning for this was him knowing we have crappy rbs and blocking so he just didn’t try or if he just trusted JA that much and didn’t think we need it. 
 

The offensive line was Jekyl and Hyde. Getting Ford back will help, and I believe Morse may be a so casualty. Bring back Feliciano and let him take over at center. Hopefully we can retain Daryl Williams. 
 

TL;DR - To be legit threats to KC in the AFC we need to coach more decisively and to win. Not be as stubborn in their ways when things are going wrong and put our players in a position to win. We also need personnel help in various spots and continued development from JA. 

I find it amazing how people keep repeating that we pay Milano whatever,  i don't see some elite LB .  He is good but not great,  8-10 million range over 3-4 seasons is fair for what he brings.  Beane has to be careful with any defensive signings,  we won because of offence and our defence was trash most of the year.  Last thing you need is a bunch of overpaid average players on defence and get stuck in salary cap jail.  The DE was overpaid and did nothing exciting most of the year

[DrPJax]

1 hour ago, Belgium_Bill said:

The advantage of living over here is that after the game you just go straight to bed as it is 4am and you need to get up for work 2 hours later...  So having slept on it, a little bit, I’m surprisingly calm about the loss.  We were just beaten by a better team, that played probably its best game of the year, while we didn’t bring our A-game.   

I thought that, just like in week 6, they played KC with too much respect.  Going for a 4th down on the very first drive gave me hope, but once playing from behind it was too calculated and respectful.  I was actually OK with going for a field goal at the end of the second quarter, as blowing that would have taken the soul out of the team.  But in the second half, when behind two scores, it was inexcusable.

Many positives though this season, the main one is perhaps that this team has proven it can learn and grow, call it the process if you want.  JA was overall great but yesterday he didn’t play with his usual confidence early on, throwing it off target a few times and getting away with one or two near interceptions.  And he needs to run sideways when tackled or toss the ball away earlier, you can get sacked, but not with a 15 yard loss, that happens too often with him.  As for the rest of the offense, our running game is obviously mediocre at best, but I happen to think that, with the weapons we have, we lack a top quality Tight End.  We have done for years in fact.  A bit lost in all the post-match doom and gloom is our kicking game, after a shaky season start Bass really came through, he just hasn’t had the opportunity yet to win us a game with a last second pressure kick, that’s a psychological test he still needs to go through. 

I am curious about the off season, will they stick to the nucleus of this team or make some surprising cuts and replacements?  The one I have most on my radar is Tremaine Edmunds.  He’s got all the physical skills but doesn’t always take the right decisions, and in the games when Milano was out injured he just looked lost.  Not a bad player, but making him captain of the defence is not the right decision IMO.

 

Anyway, in hibernation now until we embark upon next season, hopefully in a Covid-free world… Go Bills !

JA will learn like Kelly did.  He does have to stop that terrible habit of while in the grasp, continuing to run backwards, or turn his back to the LOS.  SEVERAL times in his career he has taken massive losses that could have been minimized and they kill drives or knock us out if fg position.  He keeps saying he can’t do that yet he can’t seem to use good judgement when under duress. Been a weakness for 3 years. Fixed his accuracy so why this hasn’t been coached out of him by now is hard to fathom. Daboll may be too soft,  maybe josh needs some tough love as I can’t see Belichick letting that habit go on so long.   This was a lost opportunity as.Davis was not 100% , and as a rookie I am disappointed Mcd didn’t have the guts to try stills   Probably would have produced more than 0 catches. Also not bringing up Williams after his play against the fins , esp with moss out , is a Mcd d classic move. Yeldon did ok so again why did he see snaps in only 2 games this year ?
 

 That’s what frustrates me so much.  Not guaranteed to get back;here , and squandered trying something;b different when the other backs had been poor all year. Reid td guys in places to be successful and not afraid to shift guys in/ out of lineup.   Mcd  was out coached again , and Daboll / Frazier both had two of their worst game plans of the year. Someone needs to stand up to Mcd about Edmunds. Use him outside. We are wasting a talent. Get a real mlb  like white from Tampa. Moving edmunds to sm inside lb position has failed. He can rush from the edge, cover outside on one side of the field. But he is lost in gaps as a mlb and he can’t rush up the middle. Again white has 9 sacks before today’s game. Edmunds has like what , 3-4. Plus he arm tackles and is driven backwards most times on short yardage plays. Just being misused. Milano is good but undersized. I would retain him but only at the right price.   Tre had an off year as well. On deep passes qbs had a 107 rating against him according to nfl network today pregame. His deep ball awareness needs worked on. Maybe many  things were from no camp but all other clubs faces the same.

 

Finally, we either need to go to a base 4-3 to match up better with tight ends or find our own honeybadger to match up with tight ends. Our d was exposed in lots of areas. I think Tampa, Gb, possibly Cleveland all were playing balanced and could have beaten us. We got lucky playing two other mostly one dimensional teams. After the score became 14-9 , we never mounted any serious threats so we can’t look thru rose colored glasses, it was not as close as final score considering we recovered an onside kick and a muffed fumble at the three.  We stopped them on exactly ONE DRIVE. Last year Beane noted we needed to score more. Now we need balance with a run gsme, need some pass rush, need a MLB who can get tackles for loss, stop the run, and be able to disengage from blockers., and either a rusher or second premier cb if we can’t get sacks.  Year 5 for Mcd. Needs to get back to conference championship or better. The cess needs to proceed, and I believe he needs some new defensive input as the d has stagnated. O still showing growth. , keep dabs. 
 

it will be interesting to see how quickly urban Myer turns around Jax. Will it take him 4 years to reach afc title game?  Great measuring stick! Myer is huge process guy , ABOVE THE LINE CREED HE COACHES AND LIVES BY      Good book to read. Can’t wait to see!  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TN Bills Fan]

White is a solid cornerback. Nothing more.  QBs to not avoid throwing at him.  To be a top team you have to be able to rush the QB with 4.  The Bills have to Blitz to get close against a good team.  Stud pass rusher and a penetrating DT a must.  

[Nihilarian]

16 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I disagree.  We never had a run game that scared anybody OR made them compromise their pass defense.

 

While I agree that the Bills didn't run like the Titans, Ravens, Colts. They did call many run plays a game.

 

Against the Patriots week 16 the Bills ran the ball 31 times and most by Moss 12, Singletary 10.

Against Denver week 15 the Bills ran the ball 24 times, Moss 13 runs, Singletary 8.

 

Then against the Colts QB Allen was the leading rusher with 11 runs, Moss 7, Motor 3. Against the Ravens Allen 7 runs, Motor 7 runs, Yeldon 2 runs...16 run plays! 

The Chiefs, 18 run plays with Allen the leading rusher again, 7 carries for 88 yards. Motor had 6, Yeldon 3 carries. 

 

My point being that the Bills had at least a semblance of a run game they could fall back on with Moss. After Moss went out the Bills didn't even attempt to work the run game much...putting the entire offense on the QB's shoulders. 

 

That Chiefs defensive game plan smothered the Bills passing offense. World Champions will do that. 

 

In any event, the Bills played a Chiefs team that hasn't played that well all season. The Bills defense that held the Ravens to only 3 points suddenly gave up 38 to KC.  

[billsherd]

Not sure what the contract situation is with the Kelce and Hill? Until this guys are together with Mahomes they are going to be hard to beat for any team.

[jdonley1180]

I think our defeciencies on the Oline were exposed last night. In my opinion we just aren't very good run blockers, and last night our pass protection was poor. When a team can pressure your QB on occassion bringing just 4 against our 5..... thats an issue. 

[Not at the table Karlos]

3 hours ago, Jeff1954 said:

As mentioned above with our wide receivers, I would really like to know how many of our guys were carrying injuries today before making too many comments. There had to be some reason the coaches continued to let Kelse and Hill have so much room.

The season-long issues though are lack of a really effective pass rush outside Jerry Hughes, a running game which went from not that good to basically nonexistent, and run defence which ranged from iffy to appalling.

Despite these issues, the team had a terrific season, well beyond most of our expectations. There is continuity in the organisation, we have our franchise quarterback who will improve even further, and the needed culture change has been well and truly affected. Three trips to the playoffs in four years; with two playoff games won this year; show that this franchise is in a better place than it has been for decades.

When we get over today’s disappointment, we should all be able to enjoy  reflecting on a very successful year.

It’s not successful unless you win the super bowl. 
 

I think we need major changes in defensive coaching and talent and we need to create a run game

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I hope that Fraiser gets the Houston job. I hate passive soft zone defense 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Joe in Winslow said:

I look at impact here. Was tre as good as the previous two seasons? Absolutely not.

 

Was that him? His teammates?

 

I don't know, but I know he wasn't near the player that earned that contract.

I think he played extremely well in the second half of the season. The whol D was bad in the first half, like most defenses in the NFL. Basically, it’s hard to play CB in the NFL if oyu’re not pressuring an elite QB like Mahomes.

3 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I hope that Fraiser gets the Houston job. I hate passive soft zone defense 

I’m not sure why people think this is Frazier’s defense. It’s McDermott’s through and through. Yes, Frazier calls the plays, but it’s a matchup zone D and not really the Tampa 2 that Frazier ran before Buffalo. The Bills need a Chris Jones and a Frank Clark. They are line wreckers, and the Bills don’t have those guys. Ed Oliver was supposed to be, but he’s not.

[Reed83HOF]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think he played extremely well in the second half of the season. The whol D was bad in the first half, like most defenses in the NFL. Basically, it’s hard to play CB in the NFL if oyu’re not pressuring an elite QB like Mahomes.

The lack of a 4 man rush has been apparent all year. The overturning of the DL last year (losing Lawson and Phillips) and Star opt-ing out hurt a lot. My preference last off season was to dump Murphy and spend on Austin Hooper. Edge is a huge need this year, but I still feel like one guy isn't enough, even with Star coming back. 

 

I haven't been on a ton this season, but will be back here spending more time going forward. Just wondering what your thoughts are on Edmunds?

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think he played extremely well in the second half of the season. The whol D was bad in the first half, like most defenses in the NFL. Basically, it’s hard to play CB in the NFL if oyu’re not pressuring an elite QB like Mahomes.

I’m not sure why people think this is Frazier’s defense. It’s McDermott’s through and through. Yes, Frazier calls the plays, but it’s a matchup zone D and not really the Tampa 2 that Frazier ran before Buffalo. The Bills need a Chris Jones and a Frank Clark. They are line wreckers, and the Bills don’t have those guys. Ed Oliver was supposed to be, but he’s not.

Then I don’t like him as s playcaller. All I know, when Mcd calls the defense they are more aggressive 

[dave mcbride]

10 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Then I don’t like him as s playcaller. All I know, when Mcd calls the defense they are more aggressive 

I think people are overreacting. Simply put, the Chiefs are by far and away the worst matchup in the league for the Bills on both sides of the ball. The Bills play zone, and it often works very well. Against a zone shredder like Kelce—one of the best tight ends who has ever played—they are always going to look bad. Frankly, regardless of the score, the Chiefs totally dominated in Buffalo earlier this year. This game wasn’t really that much different.

12 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

The lack of a 4 man rush has been apparent all year. The overturning of the DL last year (losing Lawson and Phillips) and Star opt-ing out hurt a lot. My preference last off season was to dump Murphy and spend on Austin Hooper. Edge is a huge need this year, but I still feel like one guy isn't enough, even with Star coming back. 

 

I haven't been on a ton this season, but will be back here spending more time going forward. Just wondering what your thoughts are on Edmunds?

I think Edmunds is pretty good, and I think fans dumping on him for Kelce last night aren’t being fair. Edmunds has to guess every play in his zone, and because there is no real pressure on Mahomes, Kelce, who is the best TE in the league by far, gets to react and find the vacated spot every time. And to top it off, Kelce and Mahomes have one of those deep connections where they each seem to know what the other is thinking on every play. He is so good that when they put White on him later in the game, White couldn’t handle him, and White is a really good player. But back to Edmunds, playing zone against Mahomes and Kelce is gonna make a defender always look bad. I’m not saying man is the answer. The answer, I think, is getting a Joey Bosa or a Myles Garrett who can dominate an offensive tackle consistently. That’s what the Bills need.

Edited January 25, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Reed83HOF]

10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think people are overreacting. Simply put, the Chiefs are by far and away the worst matchup in the league for the Bills on both sides of the ball. The Bills play zone, and it often works very well. Against a zone shredder like Kelce—one of the best tight ends who has ever played—they are always going to look bad. Frankly, regardless of the score, the Chiefs totally dominated in Buffalo earlier this year. This game wasn’t really that much different.

I think Edmunds is pretty good, and I think fans dumping on him for Kelce last night aren’t being fair. Edmunds has to guess every play in his zone, and because there is no real pressure on Mahomes, Kelce, who is the best TE in the league by far, gets to react and find the vacated spot every time. He is so good that when they put White on him later in the game, White couldn’t handle him, and White is a really good player. But back to Edmunds, playing zone against Mahomes and Kelce is gonna make a defender always look bad. I’m not saying man is the answer. The answer, I think, is getting a Joey Bosa or a Myles Garrett who can dominate an offensive tackle consistently. That’s what the Bills need.

 

Kelce is a match up nightmare, I wasn't necessarily talking about Edmunds last night. I just find myself wanting more out of him this year and with a hefty option coming up, I'm a bit down on him. IIRC, when we drafted him he was supposed to be our Gronk equalizer. I know he is only 22 and an athletic freak in terms of size/speed. I know he was dinged up this year as well, but I just feel like we aren't getting enough out of that position. It could be the scheme though...

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

Kelce is a match up nightmare, I wasn't necessarily talking about Edmunds last night. I just find myself wanting more out of him this year and with a hefty option coming up, I'm a bit down on him. IIRC, when we drafted him he was supposed to be our Gronk equalizer. I know he is only 22 and an athletic freak in terms of size/speed. I know he was dinged up this year as well, but I just feel like we aren't getting enough out of that position. It could be the scheme though...

They have to make a decision on him before the season given that he was a first rounder. My guess is that they’re going to bet on the physical upside and keep him. Talent can be coached, and he came into the league extremely young (20 years old). He is extremely talented physically. The Bills need more guys like that.

[Big Turk]

Almost would have rather seen us take 2 DL out of the game and put 2 DB's in to rush off the edges...they would have been too fast for the OLine to block and they would have basically been standing there with nobody to block.  This at least would have put some pressure on Mahomes while still allowing people to be in coverage.

[Magox]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

It is a bit of all 3. 

 

1. We don't have as much elite talent as KC. 

2. We don't have the experience they have in terms of coaching (those FG decisions McDermott made last night I don't love... but you know who lost a load of Championship games on baffling game management decisions early in his career as a Head Coach? Andy Reid)

3. Schematically we just do not match up that well against KC - they will have to find a better plan on offense for attacking Spags's defense but defensively... I honestly don't know what the answer is. You can't play man against Mahomes. The few snaps we tried it last night he burned us. We don't have good enough athletes to effectively play zone. 

 

But look, we have closed the gap in the last year. We have to stay the course. We will be back because we are too talented and too well coached for 90% of the NFL. We have to find a way to crack through that last 10%. 

 

The Bills are good enough right now to beat just everyone, except the Chiefs.

 

Their off season has to have one singular focus, retooling to beat the Chiefs.  

[All_Pro_Bills]

45 minutes ago, billsherd said:

Not sure what the contract situation is with the Kelce and Hill? Until this guys are together with Mahomes they are going to be hard to beat for any team.

Hill is signed for 2 more years with a cap hit of $15.85M in 2021 an is a UFA in 2023.  Kelce is signed through 2025 with a 2021 cap hit of $13.25M.  UFA 2026.