IgotBILLStopay Posted January 24, 2021 Posted January 24, 2021 Have done a deep dive into this matchup and share what I found. Vulnerabilities in bold. First, KC is more balanced a team than the Ravens - but not as much as the Colts. Bills on Offense: KC's DL is quite mediocre for a 14-1 team - Clark and Jones have not really justified their salaries. The secondary (other than the Honey Badger who might blanket Beasley) is weak. Sorensen is quite frequently out of position and Breeland is banged up. The heart and soul of their defense is Hitchens. He has always been in the right position and you can see he is their emotional leader. The Bills offensive gameplan - for all the accolades Daboll is receiving - is actually quite simple with a few trick plays sprinkled in. Augment the OL protection with the RB and / or TE, Allen hangs back, scrambles if necessary and trusts someone from Diggs & Co. will get open eventually. On the one hand, the Bills have the personnel (Allen has become good at reading defenses at LOS and WR can win one on one eventually) and have perfected it well - so the Defense has to be very precise to defend it. But the one-dimensional nature of the offense also does make it a bit predictable. There is absolutely no motion based creativity. So that is a challenge for Daboll this week - put in a few "new looks". The good news is that Allen can make an empty backfield work if he sees some green in front of him. Ravens' defense (loading up against the pass) against the Bills reminded me a bit of the Bills defense against the Chiefs from week 6. The Chiefs exploited that strategy by running the ball all the way to Timbuctoo - but the Bills barely attempted a run and that is why they needed every bit of TJ's pick six for the win. Not having Moss is actually quite a big loss for the Bills since Singletary cant really burn up clock and get the tough 3 yards when necessary. Key stat to watch for: Turnovers. Allen should desist from playing hero ball and has to protect the ball. The x-factor is going to be how well does the Bills Oline protects Allen. If Clark and Jones play to their salary, KC can pressure Allen with a 4-man front and still provide safety help against the Bills deep crossers. If instead the OL + help keep our thoroughbred clean, he can deliver. Game plan: Let Allen cook 70% of the time and Run Singletary at least 30% of the time. Sprinkle in a few new wrinkles on offense just to keep the defense honest - give Allen some play actions - but otherwise let Allen do his thang at the line of scrimmage and we should click on offense. Bills on Defense Just burn the tape from week 6. With no Milano, a green Klein and banged up Edmunds and White, the one dimensional defense did slow Mahomes but let CEH run all over em. This time it will be different. It was the most passive defense I have ever seen. The Bills need to continue with how their defensive scheme has evolved. After going nickel exclusively against the Colts, we did well to go 4-3 in short yardage situations vs. the Ravens. Having Milano and Klein will help cover Kelce, who will be their most dangerous weapon to move the chains. Their size and speed also helps limit the leaked yards in run defense. The Bills have become a lot more aggressive and are blitzing quite a bit. I think this is critical and they should blitz with Poyer / CB at least 30% of the time. Mahomes is hobbled a bit and we have to make him uncomfortable. No offense to Levi and Josh Norman, but our main vulnerability is obviously CB2. That is who KC is going to take shots against. Mahomes is a magician on the field, but a trifle overconfident. He will take shots and offer turnover opportunities. If Miami can intercept him thrice, we ought to get our share. Mahomes will not be afraid to throw at Tre since he has faith in Tyreek - that will be the matchup to watch for us. Tre, our CB2 or Hyde need to come up with a key interception or two. ST We have the edge both in kicking and the return game and should comfortably win the field position battle. Overall: We dont have much margin for error - but this looks like a winnable game so long as the Oline can keep protecting Allen and the Defense continues its recent stellar play. Whoever wins the turnover battle is going to win the game.
GunnerBill Posted January 24, 2021 Posted January 24, 2021 Disagree on Chris Jones. The pure sack numbers might not show it but he has been in the backfield plenty. Agree on Frank Clark. Overpaid and they overpaid for him. 1
IgotBILLStopay Posted January 24, 2021 Author Posted January 24, 2021 48 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Disagree on Chris Jones. The pure sack numbers might not show it but he has been in the backfield plenty. Agree on Frank Clark. Overpaid and they overpaid for him. He has a power game but I thought Wyatt Teller (who we know quite well) handled him quite well one on one, no? Not to say he is bad - just not worth top dollar - at least based off the Browns game. Regardless - the ability of our Oline to handle the KC front 4 and winning the turnover battle are the keys to winning the game.
GunnerBill Posted January 24, 2021 Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, IgotBILLStopay said: He has a power game but I thought Wyatt Teller (who we know quite well) handled him quite well one on one, no? Not to say he is bad - just not worth top dollar - at least based off the Browns game. Regardless - the ability of our Oline to handle the KC front 4 and winning the turnover battle are the keys to winning the game. He is worth top dollar. Second only to Aaron Donald as an inside penetrator in the NFL IMO.
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