"Some in the league think Josh Allen has caught Patrick Mahomes", per PFT

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, Mahomes increased Tyreek's production by about 30% ... just by throwing to him more. His catch percentage was higher in 2017 (71.4%, which dropped to 63.5%  under Mahomes). He had 105 targets and then 137 under Mahomes. 

 

I'm not convinced he was much better with Mahomes, just more used, though. His yards per target was higher in 2017.

One of the reasons he was used more is because the chiefs offense was more efficient.  The chiefs have been 3rd, 3rd and 2nd in 3rd down conversations since Mahomes took over  (45, 47 49%).  The 2 seasons prior to Mahomes, the chiefs were 14th and 20th (39, 37%).

Mahomes first year, the chiefs averaged (rounding up) 35, then 30 and 30.  Alex smiths last year, they averaged 26.  
 

The addition of Mahomes to the offense increased Hills productivity across the board because he was able to convert 3rd downs at a much higher rate and score many more points.  
 

Mahomes may not have anything to do with Hills catch% but it certainly has to do with his production, hence a better player according to most.  

[Dr.Sack]

22 minutes ago, NewEra said:

This is a message board....people like to discuss things like this.  15 pages worth.  

You can certainly wait 10-20 years to discuss this though.  We won’t be mad at ya

The best thing about this board is reading your posts. You are the Nick Wright of this board. 

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, Billl said:

I think Mahomes has better acceleration and lateral agility.  Allen is maybe stronger, but I’m not sure that’s true.  Josh is 12 pounds heavier and 3 inches taller, so he’s not as thick.  I’ve seen both drag defenders, though Mahomes definitely picks his spots more carefully than Allen does.  If you look at what PM does in the playoffs running the ball, you get a better idea of what he’s capable of when he really needs it.  He’s got 4 rushing TDs in 7 games vs Josh’s 1 in 4 games.  The run against the Titans in last year’s AFCCG was an all time great QB run.

 

Josh is much more of a freight train once he gets going.  He’s also a tremendous athlete.  I just don’t know how you can say that he’s inarguably a better athlete than Patrick is when PM was good enough to play professional baseball as well as football.

 

They’re just very different types of players.  It’s going to be fun watching them but heads over the next decade plus.  I’d much rather argue about Mahomes vs Allen than whether my team should trade picks for a guy like Wentz or Darnold.

I don’t care about baseball.  I’m talking about what they can do athletically, on a football field.  Mahomes father was a major league player....of course he was raised playing baseball.  If Allens father was a major leaguer, I’d bet my money that he would’ve been a great baseball player too.  But we can’t talk about that because it’s make believe. 
 

on the football field, Josh is a MUCH more physical runner than Mahomes is.  Please don’t try and compare their physicality.  They are on completely different levels.  His strength is what gets Josh in so much trouble.  He thinks he can stuff arm every defender and get separation to run or pass. .....because he has proven he can do it.  He did it to Aaron Donald.  He stiff armed 2 DL to the ground within seconds of each other.  
 

Mahomes’ 20 yard shuttle was superior to Allens, I agree that he’s got Josh beat agility wise, but their 3 cone was the same.  While Josh had him beat in broad jump, vertical and 40.  
 

Mahomes is super athletic and a great runner in his own regard.  I just think Allens size and strength is what sets him apart
 

agree to disagree 

[C.Biscuit97]

Stop trying to discredit Mahomes. He was an absolute monster in college as well. He passed for 287 yards in his first NFL start. He is an absolute stud and is on his way to being the best qb in history. It’s insane. 

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

The best thing about this board is reading your posts. You are the Nick Wright of this board. 

Thanks.  
 

I’d love to hear why you think that way

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

Stop trying to discredit Mahomes. He was an absolute monster in college as well. He passed for 287 yards in his first NFL start. He is an absolute stud and is on his way to being the best qb in history. It’s insane. 

Yup.

 

but don’t say that on a Bills forums.... people will compare you to a talking head from fox sports 

[C.Biscuit97]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

This is just what Allen is.  Allen had to be Superman against the Chiefs because of a combination of a great defensive game plan by the Chiefs, a banged up WR corps on the Bills, porous OL play, and poor defensive play.

 

That game against the Chiefs proved the Chiefs were by far the better team than the Bills on that day, but I don't think it proved anything necessarily in the Allen and Mahomes argument.  

 

But for lack of a better argument:

 

Athleticism

Allen  >>> Mahomes

This won't ever change, barring injury.  And although Mahomes is definitely athletic and elusive, I don't really think this one is arguable.

 

Arm Strength

Allen === Mahomes

Obviously debatable, but the difference is negligible in either direction.  This also won't ever change, barring injury

 

Leadership

Allen === Mahomes

Speculative and I would generally give the edge to Allen just based on what I've seen (hugging every single offensive player after the loss to the Chiefs), but I honestly don't watch enough of Mahomes or the Chiefs to know what he does and doesn't do... maybe our resident KC fan @Zerovoltz can give us those specific insights.

 

Competitive Drive

Allen >>> Mahomes

All these are speculative, but just watch Allen play. All those 20-30 yard sacks fall under this category.  So do plays like the one he got injured against the Raiders, had to go out of the game briefly and came back in to keep playing through his injury.  And yes, Mahomes has played through injury, too.  But I don't think we've seen Mahomes face anywhere near the adversity Allen has faced in his first 3 years.  Yet, Allen is now thriving through that adversity.  This category and the next category I think kinda go hand in hand...

 

Work Ethic 

Allen >>> Mahomes

I don't think this is arguable, but obviously feel free to do so.  Allen has drastically improved in every single offseason.  You can just see it in his face and hear it in his voice every time he's interviewed.  You read about it in his work in the offseasons with Jordan Palmer and then hear it in interviews by Palmer himself.  You hear about it with pleas to Tony Romo last year during the Super Bowl on how to get better.  You hear it from Daboll after Allen makes stupid mistakes and Daboll talking about how Allen won't make the same mistake again because he learns from them.  Again.  For me this is the adversity Allen has faced and the consistent improvement every year.  Mahomes landed in almost the perfect situation with the perfect coach and a team with continuity of talent that had made the playoffs with 10+ wins the 3 years before he became the starter.  I just think Allen has that Jordan quality where he hates losing exponentially more than he loves winning and he uses it to drive him.

 

Accuracy

Allen <<< Mahomes

I actually think the argument to be made is that Allen is now more accurate than Mahomes, but I'm giving Mahomes the edge here, despite the fact that Allen's completion percentage was higher than Mahomes.  I don't know why I'm giving Mahomes the edge (been doing it for longer? better deep ball thrower?), but at least at this moment I think it's possible that Mahomes is more accurate than Allen.  Then again, this might be me trying a little too hard to be objective here because I actually think Allen has made many more of those "wow!!!" throws on the bread and butter intermediate 10-30 yard passes than Mahomes has made this year.

 

 

I think those are all the individual categories you can cover with a QB.  What we have left are the external components like coaching and surrounding talent.  And Mahomes has the edge for those.  Despite our great WR corps, KC's top 3 receiving threats of Kelce, Hill and Hardman >>>> Diggs, Brown/Davis, Beasley.  And Reid/Bienamy/Spagnolo >>> (at least right now) McDermott/Daboll/Frazier. 

 

And then throw in the actual threat of a running attack from RBs on the Chiefs that Buffalo doesn't have.

 

 

So... has Allen "caught up" with Mahomes?  I actually think he's about there.  But again maybe overcompensating I'll say he isn't quite there, yet.

 

But the thing is, Allen is still improving.  Can we say that about Mahomes?

This is insane. Allen is way better than I think most people ever thought he would be. But your comments on Mahomes are borderline laughable. 
 

allen is the most improved player in the nfl. Mahomes is on track to be the best qb in nfl history. Why are some people trying to tear him down to prop up Allen? It comes across as sour grapes. 

[Dr.Sack]

14 minutes ago, NewEra said:

One of the reasons he was used more is because the chiefs offense was more efficient.  The chiefs have been 3rd, 3rd and 2nd in 3rd down conversations since Mahomes took over  (45, 47 49%).  The 2 seasons prior to Mahomes, the chiefs were 14th and 20th (39, 37%).

Mahomes first year, the chiefs averaged (rounding up) 35, then 30 and 30.  Alex smiths last year, they averaged 26.  
 

The addition of Mahomes to the offense increased Hills productivity across the board because he was able to convert 3rd downs at a much higher rate and score many more points.  
 

Mahomes may not have anything to do with Hills catch% but it certainly has to do with his production, hence a better player according to most.  

Hill has also become a better receiver. Not many WRs come in to the league and light it on fire at age 22-23. He’s entering his prime. Put an age 26 Hill on 2016 Chiefs and you see a more refined productive WR. 

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Thanks.  
 

I’d love to hear why you think that way

Yup.

 

but don’t say that on a Bills forums.... people will compare you to a talking head from fox sports 

It’s just silly. It’s why I could get over the loss so easy because we lost to one of the best qbs I have ever seen. The way Allen improved this year was absolutely amazing and the future is so bright. But to try and discount why mahomes is doing is such a bad look. 

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Dr.Sack said:

Hill has also become a better receiver. Not many WRs come in to the league and light it on fire at age 22-23. He’s entering his prime. Put an age 26 Hill on 2016 Chiefs and you see a more refined productive WR. 

Absolutely.  
 

But the real reason the chiefs offense was much more efficient and higher scoring is because Pat Mahomes was the QB and not Alex Smith.  It has very little to do with Hill becoming a more refined WR

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

It’s just silly. It’s why I could get over the loss so easy because we lost to one of the best qbs I have ever seen. The way Allen improved this year was absolutely amazing and the future is so bright. But to try and discount why mahomes is doing is such a bad look. 

Same.  I just marveled at Mahomes’ mastery with hopes that Allen continues his ascent and McBeane can continue to improve the team and scheme.  While allen could’ve been better, I think the loss was more on our coaching and KCs greatness, rather than Allens inadequacies 

[Dr.Sack]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Absolutely.  
 

But the real reason the chiefs offense was much more efficient and higher scoring is because Pat Mahomes was the QB and not Alex Smith.  It has very little to do with Hill becoming a more refined WR

Same.  I just marveled at Mahomes’ mastery with hopes that Allen continues his ascent and McBeane can continue to improve the team and scheme.  While allen could’ve been better, I think the loss was more on our coaching and KCs greatness, rather than Allens inadequacies 

Hill is better now at age 26 than he was age 22. If Hill was in the twilight of his career Mahomes wouldn’t get as much production out of him and hence the offensive production would be way down. The weapons that KC has assembled and the respective points the talent is means Mahomes is personally benefitting. It’s a perfect mix on top of an elite organization and coach Andy Reid. 
 

A better question would be suppose Josh Allen was on the Chiefs now. Would they be playing the Super Bowl? I believe the answer is yes. 

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Hill is better now at age 26 than he was age 22. If Hill was in the twilight of his career Mahomes wouldn’t get as much production out of him and hence the offensive production would be way down. The weapons that KC has assembled and the respective points the talent is means Mahomes is personally benefitting. It’s a perfect mix on top of an elite organization and coach Andy Reid. 
 

A better question would be suppose Josh Allen was on the Chiefs now. Would they be playing the Super Bowl? I believe the answer is yes. 

 

It’s all about the talent and coaching.  No mention of Mahomes.  🙄 

 

the talent and coaching in KC is great and has a lot to do with them being a great team. Mahomes is the difference in them being a good team and a dynasty in the making 

 

you disagree.....good for you.

[Billl]

35 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I don’t care about baseball.  I’m talking about what they can do athletically, on a football field.  Mahomes father was a major league player....of course he was raised playing baseball.  If Allens father was a major leaguer, I’d bet my money that he would’ve been a great baseball player too.  But we can’t talk about that because it’s make believe. 
 

on the football field, Josh is a MUCH more physical runner than Mahomes is.  Please don’t try and compare their physicality.  They are on completely different levels.  His strength is what gets Josh in so much trouble.  He thinks he can stuff arm every defender and get separation to run or pass. .....because he has proven he can do it.  He did it to Aaron Donald.  He stiff armed 2 DL to the ground within seconds of each other.  
 

Mahomes’ 20 yard shuttle was superior to Allens, I agree that he’s got Josh beat agility wise, but their 3 cone was the same.  While Josh had him beat in broad jump, vertical and 40.  
 

Mahomes is super athletic and a great runner in his own regard.  I just think Allens size and strength is what sets him apart
 

agree to disagree 

I was replying to a post that said Allen was inarguably a better athlete than Mahomes.  Now you’re saying you don’t care about athleticism that isn’t directly related to football.  That’s your right, but it’s sort of a weird take.

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Billl

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, Mahomes increased Tyreek's production by about 30% ... just by throwing to him more. His catch percentage was higher in 2017 (71.4%, which dropped to 63.5%  under Mahomes). He had 105 targets and then 137 under Mahomes. 

 

I'm not convinced he was much better with Mahomes, just more used, though. His yards per target was higher in 2017.

 

 

I understand that you think Hill's rise was all about usage.........but the usage was able to increase because they were more productive with the greater QB.

 

To see that,  look at the amount of 1st downs Hill and Kelce produced once Mahomes became the starting QB's.    More first downs,  more opporunities.

 

I can remember watching the All-22 of the 2017 Chiefs game and Kelce in particular was running free............but Smith couldn't get him the ball.    Sometimes he couldn't see him,  sometimes he was rushed and the throw was too challenging for him to make.    And Smith was a well above average athlete at QB.   Mahomes is just the better athlete, has better vision of the field and can buy tons of time and then make off-platform throws nobody else can.  

 

Stefon Diggs is a PRIME example a QB raising the production of an excellent WR.........his targets increased 44% in 2020 very much because the amount of first downs he produced increased 44%.    

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

27 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Hill is better now at age 26 than he was age 22. If Hill was in the twilight of his career Mahomes wouldn’t get as much production out of him and hence the offensive production would be way down. The weapons that KC has assembled and the respective points the talent is means Mahomes is personally benefitting. It’s a perfect mix on top of an elite organization and coach Andy Reid. 
 

A better question would be suppose Josh Allen was on the Chiefs now. Would they be playing the Super Bowl? I believe the answer is yes. 

These hypotheticals are so silly. Maybe if Mahomes is playing for the Bills, we are in the super bowl.  It’s stupid. 
 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

I think Mahomes has better acceleration and lateral agility.  

 

As he should. He's not as big as Allen. Look at Murray in comparison to Watson or Mahomes. The bigger the athlete the less agility and acceleration they have. I think Allen is a freak when it comes to athletic ability for a guy his size. Mahomes is an athlete himself but in a different way then Allen. A fair comparison size wise for Allen is Newton. I think Allen shows just a bit more agility and acceleration than Newton. 

 

 

[Zerovoltz]

 

Athleticism.  I'd give this to Allen...he's bigger..runs faster...probalby can lift more etc and so on...To the extent these things translate to the football field....Mahomes has plenty of athleticism...but Allen has more.

 

Arm Strenth.  would be great to see these two in a long throw contest.  ....as it matters on a football field, both have VERY ELITE strong arms.

 

Leadership.  From all I gather Allen is a great leader...loved by his teamates and coaches...and fans.  I would say Mahomes is a great leader...you may have seen the mic'd up Mahomes go over to Mecole Hardman after his fumbled Punt VS the Bills in the AFCCG and tell him, to get his head out of the towell....that Mahomes would be looking his way and that he (Hardman) was going to do great things in the came still.  Mahomes went right to him after that...and Hardman made a couple huge plays in that game.  In the Super Bowl...down 10 with 7 minutes left...on the sideline, walking up and down it telling everyone they were about to do something special that people would be talking about forever....and then going out and doing it.  and so on.  Hard to say who would be better....both seem to have confidence and leadership ability in spades.

 

Competitive drive=  I can't speak for Allen....I have heard that if Mahomes is playing football or tic tac to...his aim is to kill you.  He's very calm and cold about it.

 

Work Ethic -  So...again, I can't speak to Allen....but about Mahomes...his wife is a certified personal trainer...Mahomes works out ALOT when he isn't playing football...and when he isn't working out he is studying film.....A LOT....one thing about Mahomes..is that being married, he isn't out chasing women...his wife and him are both workout warriors, and Mahomes, the son of a pro athlete and who has nothing but love for the game....is like Payton Manning....constantly watching film, working out...thowing with his teammates....he just bought property in KC upon wich he is building a full size football field with lights and everything....so he can hold non sanctioned practices with his teammates.  He is the very definition of drive and work ethic.  

 

Accuracy.  Depends on how you want to define it I guess.  In general, both throw accurately.....depending on your criteria....it's hard to make a distinction.  IF you are including deciision making as part of this stat...that decidedly goes to Mahomes. 

 

I'd add that all these things you point out matters....i'd add 2 more.

 

Ability to handle mental pressure.  No one is calmer or cooler than Mahomes....I've never watched football like I do with Mahomes as QB......like when KC fumble he punt VS the Bills....it's weird...it was like...it didn't matter.  I did'nt think anyhting of it....Mahomes overcomes those things....  ....the stat that sets Mahomes appart...and it's insane.  Since Mahomes became a starter in 2018, Mahomes has a QBR of 95.3 on 3rd and 15 or longer.  The entire rest of the NFL averages 6.3 QBR on 3rd and 15 or more.  That's crazy.

 

Mental Processing.  This is probably the one that sets Mahomes apart.  No one reads a field faster and better than Pat Mahomes...explains that 3rd and 15 stat too.  Blitz?  Mahomes knows where to go?  7 deep?  Mahomes finds the guy...you just watch hi eyes....never seen a QB scan the field as fast as he does...

 

....and since it's just Allen and Mahomes we are talking about...you'd have to tell me....but Mahomes DOES try to hero ball a little too much someitmes...but the other good parts of his game allow for this.

 

 

 

These things are always fun....and as you can see I have responded....but this should be pretty much played out by now.  Allen is a franchise QB.  He belongs up at the very top of QB discussion.  I am an Allen fan.  He's incredible.  We will see Mahomes and Allen for a long time.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

32 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

A better question would be suppose Josh Allen was on the Chiefs now. Would they be playing the Super Bowl? I believe the answer is yes. 

 

Yep. And it's because the talent gap between the two has greatly diminished to the point where the rest of the pieces make up the primary difference. And this really isn't just a Mahomes vs. Allen thing. Pretty much all the current top 4-5 QBs in the NFL are close enough in talent that the team really becomes the deciding factor. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

Ability to handle mental pressure.  No one is calmer or cooler than Mahomes....I've never watched football like I do with Mahomes as QB......like when KC fumble he punt VS the Bills....it's weird...it was like...it didn't matter.  I did'nt think anyhting of it....Mahomes overcomes those things....  ....the stat that sets Mahomes appart...and it's insane.  Since Mahomes became a starter in 2018, Mahomes has a QBR of 95.3 on 3rd and 15 or longer.  The entire rest of the NFL averages 6.3 QBR on 3rd and 15 or more.  That's crazy.

 

Zero, where do you find this QBR stat for Mahomes? I'd like to see what Allen's QBR is for the same situation. And 3rd and 10+.

 

You may have seen my other posts on the same topic showing that Allen, like Mahomes, is one of the best in the league on 3rd and 10+. But I don't have QBR. Just passer rating and first down conversion rate. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Zerovoltz]

 

 

This one only includes last season....I am still looking for where I found the 2018-2021 stat....but this illustrates the same point.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl-playoffs/2021/2/5/22267622/patrick-mahomes-third-and-forever-chiefs

 

This one doesn't quote the stat...but they have pretty much all the info here.

[Billl]

11 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

As he should. He's not as big as Allen. Look at Murray in comparison to Watson or Mahomes. The bigger the athlete the less agility and acceleration they have. I think Allen is a freak when it comes to athletic ability for a guy his size. Mahomes is an athlete himself but in a different way then Allen. A fair comparison size wise for Allen is Newton. I think Allen shows just a bit more agility and acceleration than Newton. 

 

 

That’s true, but does it work both ways?  I mean it’s just as true to say that Josh should be stronger because he’s bigger.  Josh is agile for a guy his size, and Patrick is strong for a guy his size.  You can make a case for either of them.  The statement made was that Josh is inarguably the better athlete, and I’m saying that you can make a case for either of them.

 

The case for Mahomes is that he’s better at football than Josh and he’s good enough at baseball to have been drafted out of HS. They’re both elite athletes in their own ways.