"Some in the league think Josh Allen has caught Patrick Mahomes", per PFT

[Billl]

21 hours ago, Success said:

There is no question that their biggest names won't all be together for long. 

Mahomes, Jones, and Kelce are all locked up long term.  Hill has 2 more seasons on his deal, but he’s not going anywhere.  Who’s leaving?

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, Success said:

 

The only "big" gap I see there is at pass rusher. We're fairly anemic there - clearly, that has to be our top priority in the offseason, and the D-line in general.

 

The differences at QB and pass catcher are negligible, imo.  I'll grant a slight edge to what KC has, but it's not any kind of overall difference-maker.   Mahomes was better than Allen in the AFCCG because of the gap at pass rush - Allen had pressure all game, Mahomes didn't.  I think the QB's themselves are very close, and still wouldn't trade Allen for Mahomes straight-up.

 

Give me Diggs over Hill.  Hill has the speed, but Diggs can do more, and was more consistently good throughout the '20 season.  Hard to argue w/ Kelce - but Beasley is as good a possession receiver as there is in the game.  Again, a slight edge, but not what I would consider a gap.

 

We're right there. And I trust Beane more than just about anyone. He'll make the moves we need to make to catch up - it's not anything insurmountable in one offseason.

 

I agree that the only BIG gap is pass rush....but it’s a huge gap and landing two elite pass rushers at their position is easier said that done.  Chris Jones isn’t going to fall out of the sky. 
 

Pass catcher wise, it’s a medium sized gap due to the Kelce factor.  
 

coaching wise, we’re really good.  They’re better much better.  Spags doesn’t get enough credit, much like Reid didn’t for decades. 
 

After watching the afccg, I’d argue that their secondary is MUCH better than ours two. Maybe that was the coaching?  Idk, but they were blanketing our WRs all game while KCs pass catchers didn’t have a defender a yard from them on all but 2 catches iirc

1 minute ago, Billl said:

Mahomes, Jones, and Kelce are all locked up long term.  Hill has 2 more seasons on his deal, but he’s not going anywhere.  Who’s leaving?

I agree, they aren’t going anywhere.  They’ll just restructure contracts 
 

Weren’t you a bills fan a year ago?  

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Success said:

All true, but I was focused more on the player-to-player comparison.  I just don't see it.  No doubt Hill is a playmaker and dangerous, but he doesn't have the kind of broad skillset & versatility that Diggs has.  

 

It's a minor point in the scheme of the KC vs. Buffalo discussion.  Diggs only gives us a slight edge at that one position. The BIG gap is clearly w/ Kelce and the TE position. I think the rest (on offense) is fairly negligible.  When healthy, what we had this past season in Diggs, Brown, Beasley, Davis & even McKenzie stacks up well against KC's WR corps and the rest of the league.  I don't see it as a glaring difference.

 

It was a difference in the AFCCG because of Brown's knee, Davis' ankle, Diggs' oblique and Beasley's broken leg.  We can say they looked light years apart in the actual game, but injuries were a big part of that.  Our WR's were uncharacteristically not getting open.  Combine that with Allen running for his life all night, while Mahomes could have had a light snack in the pocket most of the night, and it created optics that made the gap look bigger than it is.  

 

But that is the point.

 

You look at Buffalo top 3 offensive weapons compared to KC’s. Theres a huge gap. You look at pass rusher. There’s a huge gap.

 

So how are we close? We just need a star pass rusher and a star receiver?  

[BuffaLoko]

On 1/24/2021 at 9:30 PM, ScottLaw said:

I agree. Dude is great. I love him as a QB. He’s no Mahomes. It’s not even close. Mahomes is on another level. Guy is calm, cool, collected. Allen looked tight and nervous for the first quarter and a half. Chiefs went down 9 and Mahomes didn’t flinch.

 

Hopefully he learns to get there with experience. 

This thread should be renamed to¨¨oranges versus apples...¨ or at least, green apples to California golden apples, in this instance you (for example) forget to mention Mahomes has been already to THREE AFCCh, and Allen once, each by their own merits, however the ¨calm factor ¨will come to Allen with his exposure to the stage...

[Billl]

15 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I agree that the only BIG gap is pass rush....but it’s a huge gap and landing two elite pass rushers at their position is easier said that done.  Chris Jones isn’t going to fall out of the sky. 
 

Pass catcher wise, it’s a medium sized gap due to the Kelce factor.  
 

coaching wise, we’re really good.  They’re better much better.  Spags doesn’t get enough credit, much like Reid didn’t for decades. 
 

After watching the afccg, I’d argue that their secondary is MUCH better than ours two. Maybe that was the coaching?  Idk, but they were blanketing our WRs all game while KCs pass catchers didn’t have a defender a yard from them on all but 2 catches iirc

I agree, they aren’t going anywhere.  They’ll just restructure contracts 
 

Weren’t you a bills fan a year ago?  

I was a heavy bettor on the Bills last year.  Now I want them to win as many games as possible as long as it doesn’t come at the expense of the Chiefs.  I like the team, and you fans deserve a title.

[Success]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

But that is the point.

 

You look at Buffalo top 3 offensive weapons compared to KC’s. Theres a huge gap. You look at pass rusher. There’s a huge gap.

 

So how are we close? We just need a star pass rusher and a star receiver?  

 

Huge?

 

Yes on pass rush.  Absolutely not on offensive weapons.

 

Kelce is the only "differentiator" at a position. Clearly, he's far and away better than any TE we have - or anyone in the league.

 

Receivers?  No.

 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Success said:

 

Huge?

 

Yes on pass rush.  Absolutely not on offensive weapons.

 

Kelce is the only "differentiator" at a position. Clearly, he's far and away better than any TE we have - or anyone in the league.

 

Receivers?  No.

 

I’m obviously including Kelce in the pass catching category. Because he’s their number 1 pass catcher.

 

You’re trying to split hairs.

Edited February 6, 2021 by FireChans

[Success]

Just now, FireChans said:

I’m obviously including Kelce in the pass catching category. Because he’s their number 1 pass catcher.

 

Understood. Like I said - no argument there.  

 

Not sure what we do to address it, either.  I'd still like to see Knox develop. He has some superior playmaking ability. Obviously, it's the drops & blocking that are the issue.  And of course he'll never be at Kelce's level, but that's a fool's errand to seek that.  He just needs to be capable in the Bills offense.

 

Looking back on the conversation, the overall point I think I'm going for is that we're there w/ the Chiefs on offense.  We were the 3rd highest scoring offense in the league. I'm good w/ that.  The way to a championship isn't to try to get more video-gamey.  The way to a championship is more balance.  We were one-dimensional all season, and it was ultimately our undoing in the AFCCG.

 

[BuffaLoko]

3 hours ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

once tyrod is pulled for Mahomes?
 

Yes I think we beat the jags in the playoffs in 2017

man! that was lightning fast thinking! hahahaha

[78thealltimegreat]

5 hours ago, NJKBillsfan said:

Ridiculous to even compare them. 

 

Mahomes is much better than Allen and it's not even close. 

 

Mahomes also has an offensive genius for coach, a generational tight end, and set of backs that clocks what the Bills have...for Josh to get where he did with no Tight End, no running game, and an average defense is amazing 

[BaaadThingsMan]

As a fan I like hearing this about the QB of my team however I hated the timing of this story. This feels more like an off season story to me. 

[machine gun kelly]

I’m the first one to compliment Allen for his progression to one of the better QB’s in the league, and will be our franchise guy probably for another decade or longer, but Mahomes.  I was listening to Howard and Jeremy this morning and Jeremy pulled about some advanced stats from pro football reference combing net positive yards minus sacks, etc..  You data guys know more than I on that point.

 

Anyway, in Mahomes first three years as the starting QB of any QB in the history of the NFL, has a rating so high.  Of overall QB’s at any point in their careers over three years, he ranked 7th.  You guys know many of the other guys, P. Manning, Marino, Fouts, and so on.  Montana was 10th.

 

Another data point just indicating Mahomes is performing now better than any young QB in the history of the NFL.  Again, I love Allen and wouldn’t trade him for just about anyone, and Mahomes is not going anywhere.  He’s locked up in KC for the next decade.  It’s just that a lot of people are getting wrapped up in the Allen hype, and the reality is he is now an excellent QB, amd will just keep getting better, but why compare him to the guy returning to the SB.

[HamSandwhich]

3 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

I’m the first one to compliment Allen for his progression to one of the better QB’s in the league, and will be our franchise guy probably for another decade or longer, but Mahomes.  I was listening to Howard and Jeremy this morning and Jeremy pulled about some advanced stats from pro football reference combing net positive yards minus sacks, etc..  You data guys know more than I on that point.

 

Anyway, in Mahomes first three years as the starting QB of any QB in the history of the NFL, has a rating so high.  Of overall QB’s at any point in their careers over three years, he ranked 7th.  You guys know many of the other guys, P. Manning, Marino, Fouts, and so on.  Montana was 10th.

 

Another data point just indicating Mahomes is performing now better than any young QB in the history of the NFL.  Again, I love Allen and wouldn’t trade him for just about anyone, and Mahomes is not going anywhere.  He’s locked up in KC for the next decade.  It’s just that a lot of people are getting wrapped up in the Allen hype, and the reality is he is now an excellent QB, amd will just keep getting better, but why compare him to the guy returning to the SB.

What is that second paragraph saying? What is “he has a rating so high”? That is very subjective. Is that what you’re saying he’s ranked 7th in later in the post?  In what? Not getting sacked? That is just a confusing paragraph. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by HamSandwhich

[machine gun kelly]

Ham, I didn’t write the numbers down from Jeremy buts an advanced metric from pro football reference.  If you have the radio.com app, pull up the on demand sometime between 6:30-7:30 am.  I wasn’t paying close attention, and if you go to PFR, you should be able to find it.  They had the best guys top 10 within a three year period.  I’d listen this morning as I believe audio on demand is only good for 24 hrs.

 

I hope that helps.  If memory serves, that number on Mahomes was like 127.9 or something.  You’ll probably enjoy the discussion.  It was one of their trivia segments, and the guys were trying to guess who were the other 6, but they did rate Montana as 10th.  Sorry I couldn’t be more helpful.

Edited February 6, 2021 by machine gun kelly

[machine gun kelly]

Hammy, just for you I’ll look on PFR and see if I can find it.

[without a drought]

Maybe we'll revisit this next year and see if it still holds water. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

23 hours ago, NewEra said:

I guess I really don’t understand your point. Are you trying to say that Josh Allen would’ve been as good as Mahomes was in  his first 2 years if he had Hill and Kelce?  

 

 

Not at all. Allen's trajectory has always been a year or two behind the other top QB's. This has been pretty much true since his days in Firebaugh. Take Allen's MVP level breakout season for instance in year three. Going back to Wentz, the trend has been players breaking out in year 2. Wentz, Mahomes, Jackson.  Even lesser QB's like Goff, Turbitzky and Murray probably had bigger year two breakouts then Allen's year two breakout. Allen broke out in year 3. A good part of that definitely had to do with the acquisition of Diggs. 

 

At the same time we shouldn't give all the credit to Diggs, Brown and Beasley for Allen's improvement from his rookie year with Curly, Moe and Larry. Diggs, Brown and Beasley all had career years with Allen. Definitely a mutual relationship.

 

My point is this if I can sum it up:

 

The talent gap is narrowed enough between the two that at this point, it is the rosters that puts one QB over the other in terms of team success. Such is life. Peyton was the better QB over Brady for probably their first 5-6 years of their careers but Peyton never sniffed a super bowl in that time span. I don't know that Josh would have been anywhere close to Mahomes 2018 numbers had he started with KC's roster. Allen still needed more time to develop. But definitely his numbers would be a lot better than his first two years with the Bills. But by year three for Allen the gap between the two has certainly narrowed enough where factors outside the QB play a more prominent role in team success.  In terms of pure statistical success for the QB's, 2020 alone, it's essentially a wash. Their regular season stats were virtually identical by both QBR and passer rating efficiency metrics, about a point in favor of Mahomes for each. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 2/5/2021 at 8:10 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

No question Beane dropped the ball when he passed on playmakers AJ Brown and DK Metcalf in round 2 of 2019.     They NEEDED that player for Josh Allen in 2019..........not another developmental offensive guard with right tackle flexibility in Cody Ford.    That error cost them two All Pro type talents.......Wyatt Teller's roster spot and one of those WR's.

 

 

Hopefully this is the year we find that playmaker in the draft. I think that is the only place we will find him. Doubtful in free agency. The one guy in free agency i would look at maybe his Curtis Samuel. 

 

To be fair to Beane, the Bills 2020 roster was still really good. Most years in the past it's probably good enough to get you to the Super Bowl. Or at least not blown out in the conference title game. Teams don't typically have two talents like Hill and Kelce to go along with already strong rosters. It'd be like the Patriots when they had Moss and Welker trading in Welker for a prime Gronk to pair with Moss.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

22 hours ago, FireChans said:

Talent-wise and blue chip-wise, I simply do not agree.

 

 

We need to hope that Kelce starts to age quickly. Most TE's are able to play deep into their 30's but there is a production decline that starts around the age of 33 from looking at the stats of guys like Witten and Tony G. Gronk's decline started much earlier but he was always banged up. Kelce, 31, likely has at least two more all-pro years in him. Hopefully no more after that though. 

20 hours ago, Success said:

 

If all other things are equal (contracts & dollars), who do you take:  Diggs, or Hill?

 

 

 

 

 

I agree that Diggs and Hill are probably a wash or very close to it. 

 

But Kelce >>>Beasley. 

 

Kelce is the difference. He's nearly unstoppable. He may have lead the league in receiving this year if he played in the final game.

[NewEra]

20 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Not at all. Allen's trajectory has always been a year or two behind the other top QB's. This has been pretty much true since his days in Firebaugh. Take Allen's MVP level breakout season for instance in year three. Going back to Wentz, the trend has been players breaking out in year 2. Wentz, Mahomes, Jackson.  Even lesser QB's like Goff, Turbitzky and Murray probably had bigger year two breakouts then Allen's year two breakout. Allen broke out in year 3. A good part of that definitely had to do with the acquisition of Diggs. 

 

At the same time we shouldn't give all the credit to Diggs, Brown and Beasley for Allen's improvement from his rookie year with Curly, Moe and Larry. Diggs, Brown and Beasley all had career years with Allen. Definitely a mutual relationship.

 

My point is this if I can sum it up:

 

The talent gap is narrowed enough between the two that at this point, it is the rosters that puts one QB over the other in terms of team success. Such is life. Peyton was the better QB over Brady for probably their first 5-6 years of their careers but Peyton never sniffed a super bowl in that time span. I don't know that Josh would have been anywhere close to Mahomes 2018 numbers had he started with KC's roster. Allen still needed more time to develop. But definitely his numbers would be a lot better than his first two years with the Bills. But by year three for Allen the gap between the two has certainly narrowed enough where factors outside the QB play a more prominent role in team success.  In terms of pure statistical success for the QB's, 2020 alone, it's essentially a wash. Their regular season stats were virtually identical by both QBR and passer rating efficiency metrics, about a point in favor of Mahomes for each. 

I hear what your saying and I agree for the most part, but the bolded is just not correct.  You’re taking into account total stats at the end of the season.  Go game by game (and Mahomes had 1 less game).   Allen lost 3 regular season games this year. In each loss, he had a QBR under 80.  He played bad and we lost.  Mahomes had 2 games under 90 all year (79, 83) and lost one.  Including playoffs, Allen had 9 games over 90 qbr.  Mahomes had 15.  Mahomes was far more consistent than Allen was over the course of the year.

 

Total stats at the end of the season don’t tell the whole story.  Mahomes has a much greater tendency to make the right read on a game to game basis.  Josh was making the wrong read vs the chiefs in both games more often than not.  He refused to take what was given to him and that’s where he often runs into his problems 

 

The consistency in making the right reads, imo, is what sets them a tier a part.  They don’t belong in the same conversation (regardless of season stats).  Yet