Scouting The Kansas City Chiefs (The Rematch)

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

The Bills-Ravens game was a game of flipping the narratives. After a week of hype for Lamar Jackson/the vaunted Baltimore defense and being doubted by most of the national experts, the Bills defense was the star of the show, shaking off a shaky start to really shut down the Ravens offense and expose some of the weaknesses in Lamar's game. While the weather played a factor and affected the offenses and special teams of both sides, Josh Allen managed the game well, moved the ball effectively/helped us win the field position battle, and played virtually mistake-free football. Taron Johnson made another big time play when the team needed a boost and recorded the longest pick-six in team postseason history. Shout out to the fans as well for making 6,700 feel like full capacity and even affect the cadence of the Ravens offense. Our Bills passed another real challenge in defeating a physical and playoff-tested Baltimore team and head to the AFC Championship Game for the first time in 27 years.

Next, we're on the road facing the 14-2 and defending Super Bowl Champions Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game who are coming off a physical, potentially costly win against the 11-5 Cleveland Browns. Same as the previous weeks, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the the previous Bills-Chiefs match up and the last two meaningful Chiefs games (I didn't see any value reviewing the Chargers game where they rested starters including Mahomes who I expect to play on Sunday) based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful:

 

***Offensive, Defensive, and Special Teams Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics.***

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings 

 

***Please note that the team records are strictly regular season and do not include playoff wins and losses.***

 

October 19th- Week 6 Win Away vs Buffalo (the Bills (final record: 13-3) had the 5th ranked offense, 12th ranked defense, and 4th ranked special teams) by a score of 26-17:

***Some important context: @Hapless Bills Fan laid out a solid argument for why the Bills are a different and improved team now than they were in Week 6 in the game week thread (thanks man!), "Close game, within 1 score and winnable most of game, offensive line different at 2 of 5 positions (better IMO), QB and #2 WR both playing injured, Missing #2 LB and #2 CB, #1 LB and #1 CB both playing injured, and Backup #2 LB learning his position." ***

 

Patrick Mahomes- 21/26 for 225 yards (nearly 100 under his season average), 2 passing TDs, and 0 INTs with 36 rushing yards and 3.6 YPC. Like Allen, Mahomes seemed somewhat affected by the elements, but also faced 6-7 defenders dropping into coverage on most plays. His rapport with Kelce was on display though as they connected for two TDs in the first half. Was typically excellent with his movement in the pocket and awareness of pressure. Had that ridiculous play you might remember where he nearly ran out of bounds on third-and-five and then stepped on the brakes to elude Edmunds and Jefferson to pick up the first down. Extended the play and found Pringle for a first down on third-and-12 that allowed KC to chew some clock and ultimately kick the game-clinching FG. Mahomes was sacked once by Mario Addison. 

Chiefs RBs- The Bills allowed a season-high 245 rushing yards in this contest although the defensive game plan and focus on limiting the KC air attack contributed to this. What was more disappointing than the yardage total was the significant number of tackles the Bills missed that resulted in first downs and yards after contact. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (161 rushing yards and 6.2 YPC) was a force against the Bills' light boxes and often reached the second level untouched as our DTS had no answer for the KC O-line combo-blocks. Both Edmunds and Klein struggled for the most part with their run fits and tackling. CEH drew an unnecessary roughness penalty on Jordan Poyer as the Bills defense grew tired and frustrated. Darrel Williams (26 rushing yards, 4.3 YPC, and 1 TD) broke loose through the left side of the line for a big TD run on 4th-and-inches in the third quarter. Justin Zimmer and Tre White combined for a big TFL to keep the Bills in it and force a Chiefs FG in the 4th on one of the few Bills run defense highlights. 

Tyreek Hill (3 receptions for 20 yards)- Buffalo did a great job of taking him away and shutting down the deep passing game.

Demarcus Robinson (5 receptions for 69 yards)- Robinson was KC's leading receiver on the day and made an impressive catch-and-run late in the game that drew a personal foul by a frustrated Tre White out of bounds. 

Travis Kelce (5 receptions for 65 yards and 2 TDs)- Siran Neal broke up a pass intended for Kelce to force a punt on KC's opening drive. Beat Edmunds in coverage for a TD in the first quarter and caught a second TD just before halftime on a mix-up in coverage between Poyer and White (it seemed like the entire Bills defense suspected a false start by KC and hesitated for a beat too long). Kelce fumbled just before the half after being stripped by AJ Klein, squandering a likely FG opportunity. 

Chiefs Run Defense- Josh Allen (42 rushing yards and 5.2 YPC) was able to scramble for first downs as KC was aggressive in its pass rush and successfully executed some designed power QB sweeps as well. Devin Singletary (32 rushing yards and 3.2 YPC) broke a couple 10+ yard runs behind a weakened Bills line, showing good vision and contact balance. Chris Jones had four run stuffs (none bigger than a third-and-one TFL on Zach Moss in the fourth quarter) and dominated both Cody Ford and Brian Winters. Bashaud Breeland came on a blitz and re-routed to bring Singletary down for a 5 yard loss which killed the Bills' final drive prior to halftime. 

Chiefs Pass Defense- With an assist from the weather, KC actually did an excellent job containing and frustrating Josh Allen (14/27 (a season low 51% CP) for 122 yards (another season low), 2 TDs, and 1 INT) with its dime defense. KC blitzed less than usual and wasn't able to sack Allen, but did get pressure especially through the interior of the Bills O-line. On one occasion, Allen was forced to throw off his back foot on a wide-open screen to Singletary and missed him high where he may have scored with a more accurate pass. Allen made a great throw on the opening drive that should have converted a third-and-10 situation, but John Brown dropped the pass which hit him in both hands. Stefon Diggs beat Charvarius Ward for his toe-tap TD to take a 10-7 lead and roasted the KC secondary deep at least twice where he and Allen unfortunately couldn't connect. Allen made a great read/throw to Beasley who beat both KC safeties for a TD in the fourth quarter. On the Bills final drive down two scores, Allen threw an ill-advised desperation INT into double coverage to Daniel Sorensen which ended the game. 

Miscellaneous-The hazy and wet weather affected both QBs and limited production through the air. Kansas City averaged 6.4 yards per play and led 13-10 at halftime. Harrison Butker missed an XP and Tyler Bass badly missed a 52 yard FG that would have tied the game at HT. KC committed 8 penalties for 68 yards.

 

 

December 27th- Week 16 Win at Home vs Atlanta (the Falcons (final record: 4-12) had the 21st ranked offense, 14th ranked defense, and 21st ranked special teams) by a score of 17-14:

Patrick Mahomes- 24/44 for 278 yards, 2 passing TDs, and 1 INT with 21 rushing yards and 7.0 YPC. Showed off his usual mobility and was able to scramble both left and right to convert a few first downs in the early stages. Threw an accurate TD pass to Kelce in a tight window, but otherwise the offense looked very disjointed throughout the game. On their opening drive of the second half, KC drove down the field into the Atlanta red zone. Mahomes then locked in on Kelce running a quick slant, but never saw the Falcons MLB who picked off the pass and showed off some sweet moves on a 55 yard return into KC territory (extremely similar play to the Taron Johnson pick-six vs Baltimore). Got away with a huge INT that was dropped by AJ Terrell Jr (he had it with both hands but lost the ball as he hit the ground) that could have clinched the game for Atlanta with 2 minutes left. As you can tell, it wasn't his best game by any stretch and Atlanta frustrated him a lot (just 55% completion percentage), but I have to give him credit for coming right back after the near-pick and delivering a great strike to Demarcus Robinson for a 25 yard game-winning TD on the very next play. While Mahomes wasn't sacked, the Falcons were able to get pressure early and force him into some rushed throws which killed drives, but got gassed late in the game, giving Mahomes a lot more time to throw. 

Chiefs RBs- With their preferred starter Clyde Edwards-Helaire out injured and a pass-heavy game script since ATL led most of the way, Darrel Williams (46 rushing yards and 4.6 YPC along with 4 catches for 27 yards) led the KC backfield and was mostly effective on his limited touches. Le'Veon Bell (30 yards and 4.3 YPC) wound up with a decent YPC, but lost 4 yards on an off tackle run to the right on KC's first drive and was involved in a few other plays that lost yards, looking as slow as he was with the Jets. He'll take what the defense gives him and he can catch, but Bell won't make defenders miss or rack up the yards after contact that he used to. Grady Jarrett was everywhere for the Falcons and gave the KC interior line a lot of problems. Mecole Hardman took a jet sweep for 20 yards in the third quarter, weaving through the defense and making it look easy with his speed. 

Tyreek Hill (4 receptions for 65 yards)- One of the fastest players in the NFL and a dangerous weapon after the catch (side note: I absolutely hate this guy and he should have been cut just like Kareem Hunt. If he didn't have 4.29 speed, there isn't a chance he'd be on an NFL roster IMO). A good example was an early catch he made on a dig route for 5 yards where he broke the first tackle and then turned it into a 31 yard gain. Made an excellent hustle play to chase down the Falcons LB on the INT and force a fumble that ultimately went out of bounds. 

Sammy Watkins (2 receptions for 14 yards) and Demarcus Robinson (2 receptions for 29 yards and 1 TD)- Watkins has missed some recent games due to an injury, but may be back for this Sunday. He had a chance to throw a pass on a trick play, but underthrew Mahomes for an INT. 

Travis Kelce (7 receptions for 98 yards and 1 TD)- Best TE in the NFL and is having a historic year. Used his body position really well to box out the defender for KC's first TD. KC love running TE screens for him especially on big downs. Was inexplicably left wide open on the Chiefs final scoring drive for a 35 yard gain that was called back on an unnecessary block-in-the-back penalty committed by Hill. He is Mahomes' favorite target especially over the middle of the field and in the red zone. 

Chiefs Run Defense- KC is typically very poor against the run (31st in DVOA). Atlanta didn't lean very heavily on the run game, but Todd Gurley, Ito Smith, and Brian Hill were all effective on a YPC basis (combined for 98 rushing yards and 4.7 YPC). 

Chiefs Pass Defense- Matt Ryan (27/35 for 300 yards, 2TDs, and 0 INTs) played one of his quintessential excellent-but-on-the-losing-side games and was able to exploit the KC secondary for big gains, Atlanta really should have been able to score more points though. Part of the reason for this may have been that Ryan was under duress fairly often as KC used various blitz packages effectively and he was sacked four times. All three ATL RBs (Todd Gurley, Ito Smith, and Brian Hill) were able to separate and pick up some key first downs against the KC LBs in the passing game. Calvin Ridley (5 catches for 130 yards) beat KC's top CB Bashaud Breeland (possibly out Sunday with a concussion) on a crossing route and then forced a missed tackle by Daniel Sorensen for a 53 yard catch-and-run late in the first half, leading to ATL's first TD. KC also struggled to deal with the Falcons TEs led by Hayden Hurst (47 yards and 1 TD). KC did a good job sniffing out some WR screens and even a reverse early on, but got bitten on some of the familiar crossing patterns that the Bills like to run. The Chiefs got their own 4th round steal in the 2020 draft in CB L'Jarius Sneed, an underrated playmaker for the Chiefs defense. He's very fast (4.37 time in the 40 yard dash), holds up well in coverage from both outside and the slot, and has been an effective blitzer (no offense to Levi Wallace, but this is the ideal athletically gifted CB2 we need across from Tre White). Sneed and Willie Gay Jr forced an Atlanta fumble in the red zone, a significant turning point in the fourth quarter. Sorensen is one of these guys that seems to be around the ball a lot and he has made some splash plays for the Chiefs this year, but he's a replacement level player who is limited athletically in my view and a definite player to target in that secondary. He missed a few tackles throughout and committed a key PI penalty on Hayden Hurst to keep a Falcons drive alive in the second half.

Miscellaneous- Kansas City averaged 6.0 yards per play and the score was tied 7-7 at halftime. KC actually trailed for most of the game, but took a 17-14 lead with two minutes to go before Atlanta missed a game-tying 47 yard FG in the final seconds. KC were aggressive as they usually are on 4th downs, going for it twice on the same drive (converted the first on a Williams carry and turning the ball over on a Sammy Watkins trick pass INT with the second). Atlanta's defense is a smaller, faster defense like the Bills and given how effective they were at creating negative plays and countering KC's aggressive play-calling, it gives me hope that the Bills more talented unit can do the same in this upcoming rematch. KC committed 6 penalties for 41 yards. 

 

 

January 17th- AFC Playoffs Divisional Round Win at Home vs Cleveland (the Browns (final record: 11-5) have the 9th ranked offense, 25th ranked defense, and 27th ranked special teams) by a score of 22-17:

Patrick Mahomes- 21/30 for 255 yards, 1 passing TD, and 0 INTs with 14 rushing yards, 4.7 YPC, and 1 rushing TD. Took a lot of deep drops to avoid Myles Garrett and the Browns pass rush. Ran untouched over the right side for a TD on KC's first drive. Picked up 15 yards on a scramble on the next drive, but slid awkwardly and hurt his toe/foot. Led an effective two minute offense to convert a short FG opportunity before HT. Mahomes took a weird hit while running the football and left the game in the third quarter. Outside of a bad INT where he tossed the ball deep into double coverage, Chad Henne (6/8 for 66 yards and 1 INT) moved the ball effectively after stepping in for Mahomes, highlighted by the scramble on 3rd-and-14 and the accurate throw to Hill on fourth down that sealed the win. Myles Garrett sacked Henne late in the game, but otherwise neither KC QB was pressured much.

Chiefs RBs- Darrel Williams (78 rushing yards and 6.0 YPC) showed off good power and vision on his touches. Williams picked up a big fourth-and-one situation on a pitch to the weak side, beating Cleveland to the corner (this seems to be a preferred 4th down play for Kansas City as I've seen them run it in two straight weeks. They motion the FB and TE to the right and then pitch left). Williams was also able to keep the chains moving after Mahomes left the game which was huge for KC's clock management. Mecole Hardman took another jet sweep for 40+ yards this time down the right side after Cleveland bit inside. 

Tyreek Hill (8 receptions for 110 yards)- Broke away from old friend Kevin Johnson for a 27 yard catch-and-run on KC's opening drive. Seemed to be able to get open whenever he wanted against the opposing CBs. 

Travis Kelce (8 receptions for 109 yards and 1 TD)- Did an intelligent job of settling into the soft middle of the Cleveland zone coverage, providing a big target for Mahomes. Executed a brilliant double block on Mahomes' TD run. On the next drive, Kelce caught a 20 yard TD after Denzel Ward appeared to slip. 

Chiefs Run Defense- Held up well in the first half, but Nick Chubb (69 rushing yards and 5.3 YPC) and Kareem Hunt (32 rushing yards, 5.3 YPC, and 1 TD) started churning the legs and wearing out this defense as the game wore on. Saw a lot of missed tackles by the KC back seven in particular and thought the Browns should have run the ball a lot more than they did. 

Chiefs Pass Defense- A very up and down game from Baker Mayfield (23/37 for 204 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT) as he made some excellent throws into some tight windows mixed with some poor decision-making and inaccuracy. David Njoku (4 catches for 59 yards) made a number of contested catches and executed an early 25+ yard TE screen (again, this Chiefs D plays a bit reckless and screens/misdirection look like an effective way to exploit that). Charvarius Ward gave up some easy grabs including a 22 yard completion to Donovan Peoples-Jones as well as the TD pass to Jarvis Landry (hate!) and along with Daniel Sorensen, appears to be a weak link in the Chiefs secondary. L'Jarius Sneed got a sack from his corner spot for the third consecutive game, but that was KC's only sack. Baker Mayfield tried to channel his inner Josh Allen and threw across his body while rolling right, but didn't put enough strength on it and Tyrann Mathieu stepped in front of Njoku for the INT. 

Miscellaneous- The Chiefs benefitted massively from a missed targeting call against Sorensen who speared Rashard Higgins at the one yard line to force a pivotal turnover. He probably should have been ejected and instead, it cost the Browns a TD and allowed KC enough time to get a FG just before HT (10 point swing!). Kansas City averaged 7.0 yards per play and KC led 19-3 at halftime. Butker missed his first XP about as badly as you can miss from that distance and then clanked a 33 yard FG attempt off the upright in the 3rd. The Chiefs did not punt at all in this game and committed 7 penalties for 55 yards. 

 

 

January 24th - AFC Championship Game: Kansas City Chiefs (current record: 14-2, the Chiefs have the 2nd ranked offense, 22nd ranked defense, and 17th ranked special teams) Away vs Buffalo Bills (current record: 13-3, the Bills have the 5th ranked offense, 12th ranked defense, and 4th ranked special teams):

 

Bills On Offense- I have a lot of respect for Steve Spagnuolo and his history of excellent play-calling in past postseasons (thanks for beating Brady twice!) and I do think he gets this Chiefs defense to play better than the sum of its parts. That being said, the Bills have passed two really tough tests against top Indy and Baltimore defenses so far and KC should represent an easier match up at least on paper. The Chiefs are a stars-and-scrubs type of defense IMO with All-Pros like Chris Jones and Tyrann Mathieu and a side of Frank Clark and L'Jarius Sneed, but they are collectively a below-average unit in DVOA, rank only 20th in sacks, and have the worst red zone defense in the league so our 13th ranked red zone offense should have the advantage in that area of the field. I'd like to see us run more classic as well as TE and WR screens (like the one Diggs scored on against the Ravens), using the aggressiveness of the KC defense against them and forcing them to navigate blockers and make tackles in space. The Bills interior line will be tested by Chris Jones and hopefully they can double or chip him to prevent him from creating negative plays. I'd spread the Ravens out with 10 personnel, bring back the use of jet motion to get the KC defense moving and thinking, and taking the easy profits against their zone coverage scheme. Josh needs to be careful around Mathieu and Sneed, but I don't see anyone on their roster who can keep up with a healthy Diggs or Beasley in coverage. To quote Football Outsiders, "this season, the Buffalo Bills used 10 personnel more than any team other than Arizona. In Week 6 vs KC, Buffalo gained 7.9 yards per play from 10 compared to 2.8 yards per play from 11 personnel." I'd leave Singletary back to help with blitz pick up and occasionally leak out for a screen pass which I've observed to be a weakness of the Kansas City defense. 

 

Bills On Defense- The Bills were able to limit Patrick Mahomes and prevent any of the typical explosive passing plays that KC thrives on in our first match up, but in doing so, they were dominated on the ground by KC's backfield. However, the Bills are coming off two straight playoff-winning performances in which we limited the opposing running game much more effectively. We held the red-hot Jonathan Taylor to 3.7 YPC (his career low in games with more than 12 touches) on 21 carries and then held the Ravens to 112 rushing yards below its average of the previous six games. KC was able to hurt us with screens as well in the first match up, but our defense has improved in several areas and been better at sniffing out screens since. Ideally, we need to rush four with the occasional designed blitz (usually Mahomes excels vs the blitz and yet the Bills were able to get after Mahomes and force some incompletions this way) and drop everyone else into coverage. Limiting the big play as we did before while forcing a mistake or two and taking the ball away will be key as well. While we should continue to ride a pass-heavy attack, Singletary should have room to run against a very poor Chiefs run defense and we might see the return of a few more designed runs for Josh.

 

On Special Teams- After facing a murderer's row of excellent ST groups in recent weeks, the Chiefs have a slightly below average special teams unit. Harrison Butker is normally one of the better kickers in the league and has a big leg (no Bass though), but has missed 6 XP this season and missed a 33 yard FG attempt last week as well. Their rookie punter, Tommy Townsend, has been replacement-level and averages 45.0 yards per punt which ranks 21st and 40.4 net yards. The star of their special teams are their returners Byron Pringle (4.46 speed) and Mecole Hardman (4.33 speed) who each have a return TD this season (although Hardman's PR average is surprisingly low). If the weather and specifically the wind is less fierce this weekend, I believe we will have the advantage with the booming legs of Bass and Bojo and our own dangerous return weapon Andre Roberts who is due for a return TD of his own.

 

Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will hopefully get the chance to do ONE MORE (fingers crossed). The Kansas City Chiefs are a very talented, veteran-laden team who have played in the AFCCG the past two years and won the Super Bowl last season. They are well-coached by one of if not the best offensive mind in football, have an MVP QB/explosive weapons at all skill positions, and have a plucky defense that has big game experience and a knack for splash plays. However, these Chiefs didn't look or play as dominant in the final half of the season and might be banged up/missing a few guys across the roster. The Bills also benefit from an extra day of rest and will hopefully have our WRs back to 100% health for the first time in weeks. Similar to last week, some of the same vulnerabilities that the Bills have shown are shared by KC as they are 9th in the NFL in missed tackles (Buffalo is 6th) and 4th in penalty yards against (Buffalo is 5th). The Bills have actually cleaned up their act recently in both of those categories and are trending in the right direction. With almost all of the attention and experts picking KC this week, we'll be able to adopt that underdog mentality again which we know motivates the guys in that locker room. I'm looking forward to watching a Bills team that plays loose, that's getting contributions from every corner of the roster, and who now knows that they can win in the playoffs. The Chiefs are a dangerous opponent (Mahomes will definitely be playing on Sunday in my view) and they have a lot more experience in the postseason than we do, but based on the health and recent form of each team, give me the Bills in a close win. 

 

All the best, stay healthy, and Go Bills! 

 

[qwksilver]

DSB. Thanks for putting in the time to do this each week. In my brain, I am concerned about a few things for this game. You calmly ease most of my concerns. Our improved (mainly due to health) Defense will have its hands full but have much better results. Sunday can't get here soon enough.

[ALLEN1QB]

Agree

[LeGOATski]

Nice write-up.

 

The Bills match up against KC as well as any team in the league.

 

Like you said, the Bills are the hot team and KC has been struggling. KC is more experienced, but the Bills are more battle-tested this season. They're also healthier. 

 

I think this all adds up to a Bills win this Sunday.