I’m just penciling in Najee Harris to Buffalo in April

[Augie]

18 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

It is a passing league, and we are not taking a RB three years in a row.  They will continue to develop the two already picked.  There will be other needs far more pressing than a RB. Whether it’s a CB, or DE, would be more logical.

 

This is supposed to be a very deep TE class and could see taking one in the second or third is not inconceivable.

 

Rather than load up on RB’s, I’d like to improve the OLine so the guys we have can find some room to run. A speed option would be nice, but I’ll trust the FO to make the right moves. 

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Id rather admit that motor isn't the answer, take a guy thats going to permanently plug the hole. If they're confident in a guy, and it takes a 1st or 2nd rder, then so be it. At some point you stop buying car parts and upgrade the car. I think motors odd man out.

Theres no way that our oline is so good at pass blocking, yet awful at run blocking. Something is wrong, and it need fixing. Voluntarily being completely 1dimensional is just asking for problems.

 

 

It's not at all uncommon for an OL to be much better at pass-blocking or run blocking than the other. Depending on scheme they can call for different body types and different tools.

 

7 hours ago, billsfan714 said:

Yeah, runs that went for first downs but you see with your eyes the 4.6 and change speed.    A better, faster back would beat that linebacker or safety and take if for a huge gainer.   In fact we use to have a guy named Thurman who could do that.   Again Im all for turning the offense up to 11 if you know the reference.

 

 

Thurman was 5'10 206 and while he had a fast 40, on the field he wasn't so much fast as quick and extremely good at squeezing through holes.

 

Take a look at his longest run each year. He had one year where his longest was 80 yards, in 1990. After that, his longest run for the year was 49 yards in 1995. After that, nothing longer than 38 yards in his whole career. Thurman wasn't a speed guy, really.

 

IMO this is at least as much on the OL as the RBs. Thurman had a terrific OL in front of him.

Edited January 20, 2021 by Thurman#1

[maryland-bills-fan]

8 hours ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

I kind of agree, but even Derrick Henry was getting stuffed by Baltimore the week prior. 
 

You can get a decent back in free agency or later in the draft. Mark Ingram was cut today and there are countless other examples. Using a first rounder is bad asset allocation. Especially when you already have 2 3rds invested in the position. 
 

1) the player immediately makes more than the average for the position on his rookie deal as opposed to a 1st rd DE, CB, WR who makes significantly less. 
 

2) you’re hoping he is good and then will have to pay a second contract, which has a terrible track record for running back. 

 

3) I’d rather have josh throw on 3rd and 3 or 4. But I’ll bet whatever team’s fans we are playing will be hoping for the opposite. I’d rather stay a pass heavy team. 
 

I’m all for upgrading at RB, but I changed my mind on first round for those reasons after initially wanting Etienne. 

I disagree.   Singletary or Moss play on every offensive snap.   They pass block to protect the ball in the QB's hands,  run the ball with the ball in their hands, or try to get free to catch the ball.  Every play. .. ..  ..  Moss was drafted at #86- worth 160 draft value chart points. Singletary @ # 74 , 220 points.  Add the two together and you get 380 points, so we have "invested"  the equivalent of player #52 in the draft-  #20 in the second round.  For a player who is involved in every offensive snap. Note that the NFL does not allow us to play with 12 to use both of them at the same time.  Not good enough. 

 

The draft is made up of three tiers.  The first 16 players value shrinks from 3000 to 1000 points. (3X) That is stud territory.  The top ~ 50 the value shrinks from 1000 to 400 points. (2.5X )  That is the place to get an NFL starter.   Beyond that you are throwing darts and have very little chance of getting a GOOD starter....  ...  So average the top 16 at 1400 points, average the top 50 at 720 points.   We drafted 2 guys who averaged 200 points.  We need to get a guy in the top 50,  in the area of 720 points to have him have an effect on games.

 

Most of the time, you get what you pay for.

10 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

https://texansunfiltered.com/articles/2021-nfl-draft-profile-16-tedarrell-slaton-florida-defensive-tackle

I like the guy who takes on two blockers.   But two smaller penetrating DT can also work.

Edited January 20, 2021 by maryland-bills-fan

[billsfan89]

Just now, djp14150 said:

 

 

id be focused on OL, TE, OLB/DE, and DB over the next 2 yrs in the draft.

 

you can find a change of pace or different style of RB either in secondary UFA market or late picks or undrafted players

 

Right now I am going to assume that between Mongo, D.Williams, Levi Wallace and Milano they are going to lose one of those players if not two. I think Mongo and D.Williams are brought back as this is Josh's team and they need his guys. I think Milano might be the odd guy out which means I could see LB being the pick in round 1 and the secondary being picked in round 2 and 3.

16 hours ago, TFBillsfan said:

By doing this your passing up an immediate impactful starter. In reality, it’s going to be difficult for any late round picks to even make next years roster. Again, I would be stunned if either of them are even on the board when we pick.

 

Not really passing up on an impact starter. If you trade down from 32 to 35-40 you are still picking early in the second round. Early in the second round your talent level is not that much different than the last pick of the first round. The only thing you are passing up is the 5th year option on a player. I also disagree that it would be difficult for a early 4th round pick to make the roster. There will be some players that leave via free agency and you will need to replace them with draft picks.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

7 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I disagree.   Singletary or Moss play on every offensive snap.   They pass block to protect the ball in the QB's hands,  run the ball with the ball in their hands, or try to get free to catch the ball.  Every play. .. ..  ..  Moss was drafted at #86- worth 160 draft value chart points. Singletary @ # 74 , 220 points.  Add the two together and you get 380 points, so we have "invested"  the equivalent of player #52 in the draft-  #20 in the second round.  For a player who is involved in every offensive snap. Note that the NFL does not allow us to play with 12 to use both of them at the same time.  Not good enough. 

 

The draft is made up of three tiers.  The first 16 players value shrinks from 3000 to 1000 points. (3X) That is stud territory.  The top ~ 50 the value shrinks from 1000 to 400 points. (2.5X )  That is the place to get an NFL starter.   Beyond that you are throwing darts and have very little chance of getting a GOOD starter....  ...  So average the top 16 at 1400 points, average the top 50 at 720 points.   We drafted 2 guys who averaged 200 points.  We need to get a guy in the top 50,  in the area of 720 points to have him have an effect on games.

 

Most of the time, you get what you pay for.

I like the guy who takes on two blockers.   But two smaller penetrating DT can also work.

 

5 offensive lineman play all the snaps for the entire season.  Buffalo's barely invested at all from a draft value perspective.  2 2nd round picks?  

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Right now I am going to assume that between Mongo, D.Williams, Levi Wallace and Milano they are going to lose one of those players if not two. I think Mongo and D.Williams are brought back as this is Josh's team and they need his guys. I think Milano might be the odd guy out which means I could see LB being the pick in round 1 and the secondary being picked in round 2 and 3.

 

Not really passing up on an impact starter. If you trade down from 32 to 35-40 you are still picking early in the second round. Early in the second round your talent level is not that much different than the last pick of the first round. The only thing you are passing up is the 5th year option on a player. I also disagree that it would be difficult for a early 4th round pick to make the roster. There will be some players that leave via free agency and you will need to replace them with draft picks.

Where’d we draft Tre’davious?  27, not too far away from 32. I’m glad we didn’t take a RB over Tre.  How about you?  You can get superstars at 32 too.  

[Coach Tuesday]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Where’d we draft Tre’davious?  27, not too far away from 32. I’m glad we didn’t take a RB over Tre.  How about you?  You can get superstars at 32 too.  

 

We almost took Zay Jones over Tre, if you can believe it.

[billsfan89]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Where’d we draft Tre’davious?  27, not too far away from 32. I’m glad we didn’t take a RB over Tre.  How about you?  You can get superstars at 32 too.  

 

Context matters and obviously player availability matters. Budda Baker was taken at pick 36 in 2017 and is also a two time All Pro in the secondary. Most NFL scouts have said in interviews that early second round picks are fairly close talent wise to late first round picks. 

 

My point was that philosophy the Bills who don't have a 4th round pick due to the Diggs trade could get that 4th round pick back plus another late round pick and still get a impact starter.

 

Also to claim I am not for using a pick in the first four rounds on an RB. I feel that this team is likely going to need to replace Milano and get younger at DE and in the secondary. If you can trade down a few spots from pick 32ish you can still get an LB or DE that you need and get an extra selection or two to help you get depth and help the roster long term. 

Edited January 20, 2021 by billsfan89

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Context matters and obviously player availability matters. Budda Baker was taken at pick 36 in 2017 and is also a two time All Pro in the secondary. Most NFL scouts have said in interviews that early second round picks are fairly close talent wise to late first round picks. 

 

My point was that philosophy the Bills who don't have a 4th round pick due to the Diggs trade could get that 4th round pick back plus another late round pick and still get a impact starter.

 

Also to claim I am not for using a pick in the first four rounds on an RB. I feel that this team is likely going to need to replace Milano and get younger at DE and in the secondary. If you can trade down a few spots from pick 32ish you can still get an LB or DE that you need and get an extra selection or two to help you get depth and help the roster long term. 

I agree.  Close to zero chance we select a RB in the first 3 rounds.  DL, OL, CB, WR, LB, TE should be the only positions drafted rd 1-3, maybe 4 (if we get one) and 5 too.

10 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

We almost took Zay Jones over Tre, if you can believe it.

Almost.  But at least it’s a WR.  A premium position.  Rb is not 

[Don Otreply]

It appears that some can’t accept that running the ball is of secondary importance on the Bills, 

 

its not our RBs that need to be changed,  it is our run play schemes / run blocking that need the change / help. 
 

Every time we get good run blocking we get good runs, 

 

Go Bills!!!

[Motorin']

20 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

It appears that some can’t accept that running the ball is of secondary importance on the Bills, 

 

its not our RBs that need to be changed,  it is our run play schemes / run blocking that need the change / help. 
 

Every time we get good run blocking we get good runs, 

 

Go Bills!!!

 

You don't think a RB with 4.3 speed that can add 50-70 catches and 10-15 TD's a year would elevate the offense more than any other position? 

 

https://www.facebook.com/ACCNetwork/videos/224367435316965/

 

Edited January 20, 2021 by Motorin'

[Don Otreply]

14 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

You don't think a RB with 4.3 speed that can add 50-70 catches and 10-15 TD's a year would elevate the offense more than any other position? 

 

https://www.facebook.com/ACCNetwork/videos/224367435316965/

 

We don’t need the catches, we need better run blocking and run play schemes, It would be nice if Singletary and Moss were one third of a second faster, but that isn’t going to make the O line blocking schemes better. You’re missing the root cause of the running game problem, it’s not speed, it’s run blocking.

[Motorin']

Just now, Don Otreply said:

We don’t need the catches, we need better run blocking and run play schemes, It would be nice if Singletary and Moss were one third of a second faster, but that isn’t going to make the O line blocking schemes better. You’re missing the root cause of the running game problem, it’s not speed, it’s run blocking.

 

I hear what you're saying about blocking schemes. I think a much faster back can get to the edge on plays that M&M can't, and I also think there are holes that they haven't had the speed to take advantage of. 

 

But for me, I think a crucial way to beat teams playing coverage is to harness the mismatch of a great and fast receiving back out of the backfield. M&M are capable, but not dangerous or the type of threat that teams need to game plan.  I think Ettienne becomes a security blanket in the passing game against top defenses who can get pressure and cover downfield. Much like Kamara has been for Brees. 

[Don Otreply]

2 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

I hear what you're saying about blocking schemes. I think a much faster back can get to the edge on plays that M&M can't, and I also think there are holes that they haven't had the speed to take advantage of. 

 

But for me, I think a crucial way to beat teams playing coverage is to harness the mismatch of a great and fast receiving back out of the backfield. M&M are capable, but not dangerous or the type of threat that teams need to game plan.  I think Ettienne becomes a security blanket in the passing game against top defenses who can get pressure and cover downfield. Much like Kamara has been for Brees. 

I understand you view, but we have the security blanket in Beasley, we already have a great receivers group. I don’t care if it takes two more plays to make it into the end zone, it has the side benefit of using more clock, keeping the opposing offense of the field. I’m not opposed to a better RB, but the priority isn’t in that room, imo. 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

I agree.  Close to zero chance we select a RB in the first 3 rounds.  DL, OL, CB, WR, LB, TE should be the only positions drafted rd 1-3, maybe 4 (if we get one) and 5 too.

 

I anticipate LB and CB possibly being immediate needs as I think this team will prioritize Mongo and D.Williams as this team needs to orient its cap resources around Josh. I also look at longer term needs and short term depth needs at DE and at safety. I think a lot of fans think TE is a big need but I don't see the team moving away from Knox. I think a trade down just a few spots to recoup a 4th is the best move unless fantastic value presents its self at pick 32. I think at picks 33-39 you can get a similar caliber prospect and you then can address other needs by having an extra pick. And considering how good this regime has been at drafting having more picks to replace guys who just left or could age out soon is a good idea. 

 

If I had to guess I would say that if they resign Levi, Mongo, Roberts, and D.Williams but let Milano walk the first two picks will be at DE and LB while the third round pick will be in the secondary. An RB who can bring some speed to the team might get picked but that is a 5th round or later type pick. 

Edited January 20, 2021 by billsfan89

[RocBills4life]

I 100% agree that we should draft Najee Harris he is 6'2 230 with a 4.45 40 and hes great in the passing game. We were one of the worst running teams this year. For those who are saying this is a passing league and we are a passing league I agree. Devin Singletary had a terrible drop in the AFC championship game,  and I love him but we saw time and again Josh turning into our number one running back. They just didn't get the job done and we need more juice. We need an every down back in the mold of Jonathan Taylor. We are picking 30th. If we don't take Harris at 30th they really need to get a guard like Wyatt Davis from Ohio state. Buettger/Brian Winters/Cody Ford sucks. At 30th I really can't see us getting another guy that could make a bigger impact than Harris or Davis. If we wait until our pick in the 2nd to get Harris he will be gone. 

 

Our model of how to run an offense should be more like the Seahawks. They are predominantly a passing offense but they are tough and physical with a very strong offensive line and a running quarterback. Chris Carson is just as good in the passing game as he is rushing and hes hard to bring down. 

 

We can all agree this is a passing league, but when the defense knows that its going to be a pass 100% of the time because we can't run it successfully when we do try they will blanket our WRs. The Chiefs beat us because of our deficiencies. We need passrushers badly also but picking at 30th all of the best pass rushers in the draft will be gone. Epanasa needs to develop and we need to let clipboard holder Trent Murphy to get his walking papers and look for a FA.