A closer look at a couple of Ravens at Bills deep throws

[Hapless Bills Fan]

This is 3rd and 6 on the Buff 48, Bills first drive.  Cover 0?  I see all 11 guys and the Safety is cheating up close to the LOS

 

At the snap, the safety (?), who's been stacked up like he's gonna blitz, streaks upfield fast, leaving good protection

"It's A Trap!" Not Cover 0.  Diggs has his guy beat by a step, but he's hanging with him plus the safety is gonna get there.  I think Beasley might be coming open on the 50 but it doesn't look as though Josh could put it where Bease could get it AND make the first down, without putting the ball at risk.

Doesn't seem like wind to me, Josh just throws it some 70 yards into the endzone.  There's a bit of pushy-grabby going on.  Diggs slackens up as he realizes it's been thrown away.

Ball lands 10 yds deep in the endzone with the Ravens "winning" the race for it.

I think this was a play designed essentially to be a cover 0 beater with max protect, and there really was nothing else available.

 

 

[BuffaloBill]

Good look at it Hap. The Bills kept TE’s in on pass protect frequently in that game. There did seem to be they will get open or not. At least Josh was patient enough to wait on it and throw it away if it wasn’t there. In the past couple of years he would have looked to make something out of nothing. Ball control was vital in this game.

[Motorin']

Can you do this for the deep shot when Diggs was open? I think Bease was open too, but couldn't tell for sure. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Watching the replays it looks like the wind sails the ball far to the right towards the sideline towards the end of play. Hard to say.

 

The frustrating thing about the play is that we are going for the big play there when all we need is six yards. But at the same time hard to blame Josh because it absolutely looks like single coverage and even if the safety bails to help at the snap you probably figure you can beat the safety. Looking at the images the ball maybe needs to come out immediately to get the ball to Diggs around the 30 yard line when he is still single covered before the safety gets there. But I'm thinking Josh didn't expect the safety to be able to make up so much ground. 

 

Also, I trust Allen to put the ball where it needs to be on Besley but you are right. In doing so Beasely gets tackled or ran out of bounds at least two yards short of the marker. Would have brought up an interesting decision on 4th and 2. Bills probably would have went for it.

 

Also, I don't think that pass to Diggs was a throw away in anyway. The fact that the kickers combined to go 2 out of 6 on attempts all well  inside the 50 yard line tells you that the wind was a major factor in the passing game. Particularly so on deep passes.

Edited January 18, 2021 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Here's 3rd and 9 at the Ravens 10 just as Josh throws.  Bease is open on the L but short of the sticks.  Diggs on the R is tripled.  The guys over the middle are doing their job to draw attention and have Gabe Davis singled.  Real anticipation throw with a nice spiral, I don't think wind took it.

Davis does a good job of tracking the ball and screening off the DB, he just can't seal the deal.  Humphries may or may not have hooked Davis hip and be pulling before the ball gets there

He gets a palm on it though

It just goes through his hands.  It wasn't a "bunny" but you'd really like to see the kid make that.

We got a FG for the lead.

 

8 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

Can you do this for the deep shot when Diggs was open? I think Bease was open too, but couldn't tell for sure. 

 

Sure do you remember down and distance?  Otherwise I'll watch for the play I think you mean

[SCBills]

Gabriel Davis has to make that catch.  He's good, but not great (yet), and that's ok... but in fairness to the Duke Williams portion of the fanbase, we killed Duke for not making a somewhat tough TD catch in the Texans game last year.  Of course, that's where the comparison ends... Davis has a bright future and has played really well as rookie WR.

 

The FG was fine given how the Ravens game played out, but we need TD's against KC.  

[Motorin']

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Here's 3rd and 9 at the Ravens 10 just as Josh throws.  Bease is open on the L but short of the sticks.  Diggs on the R is tripled.  The guys over the middle are doing their job to draw attention and have Gabe Davis singled.  Real anticipation throw with a nice spiral, I don't think wind took it.

Davis does a good job of tracking the ball and screening off the DB, he just can't seal the deal.  Humphries may or may not have hooked Davis hip and be pulling before the ball gets there

He gets a palm on it though

It just goes through his hands.  It wasn't a "bunny" but you'd really like to see the kid make that.

We got a FG for the lead.

 

 

Sure do you remember down and distance?  Otherwise I'll watch for the play I think you mean

 

I think it was 1st & 10 at the 00:32 mark of the 1st quarter. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Watching the replays it looks like the wind sails the ball far to the right towards the sideline towards the end of play. Hard to say.

 

I don't know what replays you're watching, but on Coach's film at the the point where Josh throws it's pretty clear Diggs is going to be double-covered and tightly by the time the ball gets there, and it looks as though the ball travels on a clean arc

 

Quote

Also, I don't think that pass to Diggs was a throw away in anyway. The fact that the kickers combined to go 2 out of 6 on attempts all well  inside the 50 yard line tells you that the wind was a major factor in the passing game. Particularly so on deep passes.

 

We can agree to disagree - certainly Josh has thrown to a double-covered Diggs before, though that would probably have been a Very Bad Idea in this game.  I don't think the wind took this one, but I could be wrong.  Sailing to the right wasn't a factor to the incompletion though, it was clearly thrown (or sailed) at least 15 yds deeper than it needed to be for Diggs to have a play.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't know what replays you're watching, but on Coach's film at the the point where Josh throws it's pretty clear Diggs is going to be double-covered and tightly by the time the ball gets there, and it looks as though the ball travels on a clean arc

 

 

Yeah I can see that now looking at your third image again as Allen is nowhere close to winding up yet. Looks like the bottom line is Allen threw the ball to Diggs way too late. The ball should be out a split second before the third image.  My guess may be that Allen was deadest on going to Diggs at the snap seeing the look the defense gave him. Didn't anticipate the safety getting over and even though the safety did he thought screw it I can get it there and just incase I'll put a bit extra on it to make sure only Diggs will be able to get there worst case scenario.  So in a way he put a little extra on it to make sure it definitely wasn't going to fall short where the safety could jump it. So I supposed it could be considered a semi  throw away with the hopes of still being able to make a play.

Edited January 18, 2021 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

I think it was 1st & 10 at the 00:32 mark of the 1st quarter. 

 

The guy I like on this play is John Brown, over by the sideline. 

Beasley is bracketed.  He's probably "Bease open" where a low throw would get him, but a rope could be deflected, and an arc might be "robbed"

That play was a damned shame because Diggs had his guy beaten like a drum and he might have gotten the touch on it.

I'm pretty sure that pass was caught by the wind and deflected off to the side.

[spartacus]

20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Here's 3rd and 9 at the Ravens 10 just as Josh throws.  Bease is open on the L but short of the sticks.  Diggs on the R is tripled.  The guys over the middle are doing their job to draw attention and have Gabe Davis singled.  Real anticipation throw with a nice spiral, I don't think wind took it.

Davis does a good job of tracking the ball and screening off the DB, he just can't seal the deal.  Humphries may or may not have hooked Davis hip and be pulling before the ball gets there

He gets a palm on it though

It just goes through his hands.  It wasn't a "bunny" but you'd really like to see the kid make that.

We got a FG for the lead.

 

 

Sure do you remember down and distance?  Otherwise I'll watch for the play I think you mean

interesting that Davis is not getting near the flak for an easier and shorter play than what Duke got last year

the W makes all of the diff

 

 

[Success]

I've seen a lot of comments (here and elsewhere) that Davis should have caught that ball.

 

In real time, I just didn't see it that way. It's a very tough catch - the kind you want a good WR to make, but also the kind that we've seen even the best not be able to handle. It was a pretty high velocity throw, and pulling something like that out of the air, at that angle, is very high-level playmaking.

 

He can't make 'em all.  The previous week, he basically won the game with some of the best sideline toe drags I've seen.

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm pretty sure that pass was caught by the wind and deflected off to the side.

 

Ah, maybe this is the one i saw sail towards the sideline. It appeared to do it towards the very end.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This is 3rd and 6 on the Buff 48, Bills first drive.  Cover 0?  I see all 11 guys and the Safety is cheating up close to the LOS

 

At the snap, the safety (?), who's been stacked up like he's gonna blitz, streaks upfield fast, leaving good protection

"It's A Trap!" Not Cover 0.  Diggs has his guy beat by a step, but he's hanging with him plus the safety is gonna get there.  I think Beasley might be coming open on the 50 but it doesn't look as though Josh could put it where Bease could get it AND make the first down, without putting the ball at risk.

Doesn't seem like wind to me, Josh just throws it some 70 yards into the endzone.  There's a bit of pushy-grabby going on.  Diggs slackens up as he realizes it's been thrown away.

Ball lands 10 yds deep in the endzone with the Ravens "winning" the race for it.

I think this was a play designed essentially to be a cover 0 beater with max protect, and there really was nothing else available.

 

I haven't looked at the all22 yet to me but on a fair few of them I didn't think there was anything obvious underneath. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, spartacus said:

interesting that Davis is not getting near the flak for an easier and shorter play than what Duke got last year

the W makes all of the diff

 

I'm not sure what you mean by "shorter play"

 

Davis won the game for us last week with those toe-drag catches, so IMHO that earns him some slack

I'm sure you're right that if we'd lost, especially a close game fans would look harder at the points we left behind

[Drew21PA]

didnt like all the drops - Davis definitely shouldve caught the TD.  Another TD the national narrative isnt "buffalo cant perform..." 

 

Right now its we only put up 10 points on offense yadda yadda yadda - there is 14 points here we left on the field.  They will fix it and beat the cheifs.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Ah, maybe this is the one i saw sail towards the sideline. It appeared to do it towards the very end.

 

Yes, I agree

15 minutes ago, Success said:

I've seen a lot of comments (here and elsewhere) that Davis should have caught that ball.

 

In real time, I just didn't see it that way. It's a very tough catch - the kind you want a good WR to make, but also the kind that we've seen even the best not be able to handle. It was a pretty high velocity throw, and pulling something like that out of the air, at that angle, is very high-level playmaking.

 

He can't make 'em all.  The previous week, he basically won the game with some of the best sideline toe drags I've seen.

 

I agree, it wasn't a drop, and he had Humphries arm hooked around his hip and possibly pulling on him, just to raise the degree of difficulty.   It wasn't a "gimmee" or a "any decent NFL WR has to make that one" play.  Gabe did well to break the very physical coverage off the line and separate to have a chance at it.

 

On the other hand, no it wasn't a bullet and it is the sort of pass we see the best handle.  It's the kind of catch we saw WR in the Cle-KC and TB-NO games make, including guys further down their depth chart.

 

We're going to need our WR to make those catches to succeed going forwards.

[Royale with Cheese]

I think he just missed.

[LABILLBACKER]

20 minutes ago, Success said:

I've seen a lot of comments (here and elsewhere) that Davis should have caught that ball.

 

In real time, I just didn't see it that way. It's a very tough catch - the kind you want a good WR to make, but also the kind that we've seen even the best not be able to handle. It was a pretty high velocity throw, and pulling something like that out of the air, at that angle, is very high-level playmaking.

 

He can't make 'em all.  The previous week, he basically won the game with some of the best sideline toe drags I've seen.

 

Both the Duke and Davis plays were on high velocity throws. And even though Josh's ball placement was perfect on both, they were too hot to handle. I think with more reps these wrs are still getting used to the rockets he throws. Yes both were catchable but not shocked they went right thru their hands.

[RobbRiddick]

On the ones where Diggs was double covered I assumed he was just launching it to keep them honest and help the underneath stuff stay open