YoloinOhio Posted January 23, 2021 Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said: @Hapless Bills Fan If you read into those stats more....you see Buffalo has an even better pass D VS WR than KC does....however, the difference maker for KC is Kelce. Buffalo had 25% of their opponents targets go to TE...that was tied for highest with a couple other teams...and as you see the Bills have a poor success rate VS TE (makes sense that teams would target the TE vs a team that isn't good at stopping the TE) ..... Kelce is what gives KC the advantage in the game. He is a big part of what makes KC dangerous....if you stop the WRs with two deep zone etc....you aren't stopping Kelce...if you dedicated 2 guys to stopping Kelce, Mahomes is going to find the open target elsewhere......couple that with your lack of a 4 man pass rush....that is advantage KC. It's why I have KC winning the game. All other things being equal...TE is decidedly not equal here. Is the poor success rate weighted more toward teams that feature multiple TEs (ie Indy)? I believe it is. 1
Mango Posted January 23, 2021 Posted January 23, 2021 Man, I watched Bills tickets drop earlier today. Down to about $450 ea. I have the points to cover a last minute flight. I was greedily hoping they’d get under $400 and pull the trigger. They’re pushing back up to over $600 now. Ugh
CommonCents Posted January 23, 2021 Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said: @Hapless Bills Fan If you read into those stats more....you see Buffalo has an even better pass D VS WR than KC does....however, the difference maker for KC is Kelce. Buffalo had 25% of their opponents targets go to TE...that was tied for highest with a couple other teams...and as you see the Bills have a poor success rate VS TE (makes sense that teams would target the TE vs a team that isn't good at stopping the TE) ..... Kelce is what gives KC the advantage in the game. He is a big part of what makes KC dangerous....if you stop the WRs with two deep zone etc....you aren't stopping Kelce...if you dedicated 2 guys to stopping Kelce, Mahomes is going to find the open target elsewhere......couple that with your lack of a 4 man pass rush....that is advantage KC. It's why I have KC winning the game. All other things being equal...TE is decidedly not equal here. I have given you credit over the past year or so for some good posts even though KC biased. Your point above is fair, I do think you will be surprised how fast and intense the Bills are playing tomm. That will be the difference. If I’m wrong I will be here to eat those words. 1
Magox Posted January 23, 2021 Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mango said: Man, I watched Bills tickets drop earlier today. Down to about $450 ea. I have the points to cover a last minute flight. I was greedily hoping they’d get under $400 and pull the trigger. They’re pushing back up to over $600 now. Ugh When you are about to make decisions like that and you are within $50 or so you got to pull the trigger. 2
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Is the poor success rate weighted more toward teams that feature multiple TEs (ie Indy)? I believe it is. it covers only the regular season.....in wich you didn't play indy.
Mango Posted January 23, 2021 Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Magox said: When you are about to make decisions like that and you are within $50 or so you got to pull the trigger. Yeah, realizing that now. Thanks for rubbing it in. Haha 2
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Posted January 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said: Then go (5) wide, someone will be open. You can disguise all you want, their 4th and 5th corner can’t cover McKenzie or Davis. ....KC would LOVE for the Bills to go 5 wide.....because we do have 4th and 5th corners that can cover. Someting esle to watch for....Honey Badger led the leauge in passer rating when covering the slot reciever..... 1 2
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Posted January 23, 2021 Breaking this down even more.... These are only stats from the KC/BUF game earlier this year. Buffalo targeted WR on 84% of their pass plays in that game for a 48% success rate and an average of only 4.9 yards. In that game, KC only 46% of their targets went to WR...35% to RB and the other 19% to RB. Buffalo not having a TE or RB threat in the passing game plays to KC's strengths on D....and the Bills inability to cover TE....plays into why Kelce is a huge difference in this game.
zow2 Posted January 23, 2021 Posted January 23, 2021 Both of the Bills Jets to KC have taken off. it’s on! 1
NEBranch Posted January 23, 2021 Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, zow2 said: Both of the Bills Jets to KC have taken off. it’s on! Is it lame that I think it is so cool to watch a couple of blue blips on a map? 1
starrymessenger Posted January 23, 2021 Posted January 23, 2021 I think the Bills will pick their poison by doubling Kelce and Hill and take their chances with Hardman and with the Chiefs running game. They will give KC the running game, like in the earlier matchup, because thats not what the Chiefs do best. When I say double Kelce and Hill (and more Kelce than Hill IMO) I dont mean to say that they will make their intentions obvious or do it all the time. Obviously they will cheat and sometimes flat out guess depending upon the situation, but I expect them to be aggressive. They will at the same time selectively bring pressure to make it more difficult for PM to find his second or third read. if PMs mobility is compromised that will greatly help Frazier & Co. 1 1
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Posted January 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: So....if you go back and look at that game again.....the Bills ran 10 personel 16 times that game. HALF of those were in the 4th Q trailing late. Sounds like a good plan. KC has the guys to cover that...I hope the Bills run 10 personell the whole game.
Johnnycage46 Posted January 23, 2021 Posted January 23, 2021 Ole Gary can't find anyone to chat with about his team so he comes here. Love it lol. 1
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Johnnycage46 said: Ole Gary can't find anyone to chat with about his team so he comes here. Love it lol. I can't think of a better place or better group of people to chat about a Chiefs/Bill AFCCG. I love it too! 1
Rocket94 Posted January 23, 2021 Posted January 23, 2021 I am sick of hearing about the Chiefs. I like that the Bills are going about business quietly. Go in there and punch these A-Holes in the mouth! Go Bills!
Pokebball Posted January 23, 2021 Posted January 23, 2021 28 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said: ....KC would LOVE for the Bills to go 5 wide.....because we do have 4th and 5th corners that can cover. Someting esle to watch for....Honey Badger led the leauge in passer rating when covering the slot reciever..... We'll see tomorrow.
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 23, 2021 Posted January 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said: So....if you go back and look at that game again.....the Bills ran 10 personel 16 times that game. HALF of those were in the 4th Q trailing late. Sounds like a good plan. KC has the guys to cover that...I hope the Bills run 10 personell the whole game. Not sure I am following you here. Are you saying the Chiefs were playing off and soft in the 4th quarter of the week 6 game? 1
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