AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME! Bills at Chiefs, Sunday 6:40 pm on CBS

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Anyone else get the feeling Davonta Freeman is going to be active and play a role?

No.  You don't activate somebody that hasn't been with the team for most of the season in the most important game of the year.  You can't take the chance of a botched handoff or missed block assignments.  It'll be Singletary and Yeldon again with Singletary getting the bulk of the carries.  

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 hours ago, par73 said:

I was going to mention Pioli. When asked what the Chiefs needed to do to win, he smirked, and said Mahomes just has to show up. For the Bills, he laughed-- tough to see how, and said Allen and Diggs would have to each have the game of their lives.

I'm still puzzled at how anyone thinks the chiefs are THAT much better than us lol even if we accept that we're a 3 or 4 point underdog that's literally 'one fumble or interception can completely swing the outcome of the game' territory...I've never seen the 'experts' almost universally say the game is going to be close and then all pick the same team before its really strange 

Were 3 point dogs and the chiefs haven't been covering spreads for months now... lol clearly these dudes are getting overvalued every week 

[GETTOTHE50]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

No.  You don't activate somebody that hasn't been with the team for most of the season in the most important game of the year.  You can't take the chance of a botched handoff or missed block assignments.  It'll be Singletary and Yeldon again with Singletary getting the bulk of the carries.  

I doubt he would miss a block assignment or botch a handoff. He’s not some incompetent rookie whose never played the game. 
 

but he probably won’t get carries bc of how the other guys have earned their current spots 

[BillsFan619]

9 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Shout out to Jerry Hughes!

 

I know our offense gets the props (as they should) but he’s been such a solid, consistent and steady (who would’ve thought that several years ago?) player for us this year.

 

Jerry, keep leading and keep ballin’!

 

Go Bills!

[BillnutinHouston]

6 hours ago, par73 said:

I was going to mention Pioli. When asked what the Chiefs needed to do to win, he smirked, and said Mahomes just has to show up. For the Bills, he laughed-- tough to see how, and said Allen and Diggs would have to each have the game of their lives.

 

McD says to Pioli, thank you for the motivational material.

[Chandler#81]

Championship Series tied at 1 apiece. GO BILLS!

 

[BillsFan619]

29 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Championship Series tied at 1 apiece. GO BILLS!

 

Crazy stat!

 

Go Bills!

[Doc Brown]

44 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

I doubt he would miss a block assignment or botch a handoff. He’s not some incompetent rookie whose never played the game. 
 

but he probably won’t get carries bc of how the other guys have earned their current spots 

How well does he know this system including the blocking audibles Josh makes at the line?  How many reps does him and Josh have of exchanging the ball?  He's only been here what....two weeks?  Antonio Williams I'd be more receptive too but my guess is they stick with Singeltary and Yeldon.

[LeGOATski]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

Championship Series tied at 1 apiece. GO BILLS!

 

Pretty cool

 

Rubber match

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

How well does he know this system including the blocking audibles Josh makes at the line?  How many reps does him and Josh have of exchanging the ball?  He's only been here what....two weeks?  Antonio Williams I'd be more receptive too but my guess is they stick with Singeltary and Yeldon.

Do we really want to talk about Freeman and missed blocks in big games? He missed a big one in the Super Bowl for the Falcons. 
Rather roll with Williams if they decide to bring another or different back. 

[YoloinOhio]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Anyone else get the feeling Davonta Freeman is going to be active and play a role?

Not if the other 2 RBs are healthy. But we will see. 

[LeGOATski]

Singletary/Yeldon could have a big day with screens

[CSBill]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Anyone else get the feeling Davonta Freeman is going to be active and play a role?

 

I have been thinking that. Or maybe Williams? I do feel one of them will be active Sunday. If so, who isn't? I say => Twn Jones.

[YoloinOhio]

2 hours ago, BillnutinHouston said:

 

McD says to Pioli, thank you for the motivational material.

With Terrell Davis laughing in the background about the Bills having any chance to win. I know they are just NFLN guys but this isn’t nick Wright or Steven A. A former GM is supposed to lend credibility to his assessments. But he acts like the Bills are so adorable for even bothering to show up. I realize they are a great team but pretty sure bills are 15-3 with multiple all-pros and an mvp candidate at Qb. why does one team need to be perfect in all phases to win and one just needs to show up? Btw I would say the same if it was the other way around. Horrible analysis to act like one team is that much better than another at this point of the playoffs. 
 

Edited January 22, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[Stank_Nasty]

6 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

With Terrell Davis laughing in the background about the Bills having any chance to win. I know they are just NFLN guys but this isn’t nick Wright or Steven A. A former GM is supposed to lend credibility to his assessments. But he acts like the Bills are so adorable for even bothering to show up. I realize they are a great team but pretty sure bills are 15-3 with multiple all-pros and an mvp candidate at Qb. why does one team need to be perfect in all phases to win and one just needs to show up? Btw I would say the same if it was the other way around. Horrible analysis to act like one team is that much better than another at this point of the playoffs. 
 

Davis must have completely forgot when a 9-7 jags team, in their 2nd year of existence, went into mile high and beat a 13-3 Broncos team he was part of. They were MASSIVE favorites... If I were him I’d probably try and forget it as well. 

 

That’s why I keep saying it’s like these guys have never watched a postseason in the last 40 years. 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Stank_Nasty

[Mango]

6 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

Ok......here are my thoughts......from your favorite KC fan on this board (probably the only KC fan on this board, except @Yav He loves KC more than anyone I know) 

 

First a note about the weather.  Mahomes played college ball at Lubbock, TX.  That place is very windy and cold and sometimes snowy in winter.  Mahomes has played in a couple snow games with KC and many times in very cold temps.  KC does NOT change what they do (and unless it's a crazy deep snow game, they won't...and that isn't anticipated)  So....all of what I am saying here, applies regardless of weather.

 

WHEN KC HAS THE BALL:

 

Will use a ton of presnap motion to see that Bills coverage looks like.  Also use that presnap motion to show same play a few times...then start running 2 or 3 variants out same look to keep D off balance.

 

KC won't insist on trying to run into stacked boxes.  Mahomes will check out to a pass, and vice versa.  

 

KC will be looking, as they always do...to exploit matchups with Kelce.

 

If the Bills go with a heavy zone scheme...watch for KC to run a lot of "floods" to one side and let Patrick read the defenders either moving to cover, or staying in place...Mahomes will look to exploit the spot that wasn't/isn't covered in that situation.

 

KC's weak points on O.  

 

Interior O line....this group is a bottom 5 group and has been since Mitch Morse left.  KC's entire interior is 7th round or later JAGS that they get by with because Pat Mahomes.  RT has been a revolving door also since we lost Schwartz, our pro bowl RT.  Only LT Eric Fisher has been consistent....and most games he's solid but elite edge rushers get the better of him...fortunately, the Bills don't have a Bosa brother.  If you want to put a wrench in the works of the KC offense, a good way to do that is with interior pressure.  Teams that can rush 4 and get there in a hurry, give Mahomes trouble as he needs the time to sift through the 7 deep zones in that case.  

 

KC isn't a good red zone team.  Close in, if you can keep tabs on the small WR's, you've got a fighting chance....just have to make sure you've got Kelce fully accounted for.  No fade or jump ball options limits what KC does down close in.  Couple that with again, the POOR interior O line, you have a team that doesn't get a push in short yardage situations.....also limitiing what they do in close.  KC relies on Mahomes improvisation and shemed up misdirection type stuff down close to make up for this.  Holding KC to red zone field goals is a MUST for the BIlls.

 

 

WHEN BUFFALO HAS THE BALL:

 

The bills run more 3 and 4 WR sets than any team in the NFL....wich plays right into what KC does best on D.  KC allowed the fewest receptions by WR's for the year.  KC has a DEEP stable of very capable pass defenders who according to PFF (NOT a service I like, but just using the stat to make my point)  ....KC has 6 Corners ranked in the top 60 overall.  (or something like that)  If you do the math...PFF thinks KC has 6 guys who are good enough to start on just about every team in the leauge.  That isn't even counting Honey Badger.  Badger is used as an occasional blitzer, but generally plays an exceptional centerfield, and his AT SNAP reads are exceptoinal VS the run....counted a good number to times VS Cleveland where he flew up on pitches to the outside and turned the play back inside before the lead blocker could get to the inside defenders.  KC doesn't blitz a ton, but when they do, it's often a DB...KC will show alot of saftey action on the line and then havet those guys drop out the majority of the time.  CB L Jarious Sneed had a few sacks from the CB spot and is a deceptively good blitzer when called on.  ....As long as the Bills are in 3 and 4 wide...KC is going to give you a steady diet of Nickel and Dime packages...wich is what they prefer to be in.

 

If the Bills can generate a threatening running game....that gets KC into more base looks wich means KC's POOR LB corps is on the field more.  KC is among the worst LB units in the NFL at covering TE's and RB's out of the backfield with LB's.  It will take some doing to get KC out of Nickel.....as KC doesn't mind letting a team have chunk runs between the 20's as long as the big pass plays are held in check....strong chunks running in the red zone would make KC roll out the base D more often....thus removing some good DB's from the field and giving the Bills a better look to pass against.

 

Cleveland was generally getting the ball out pretty fast VS KC.  KC had no sacks...and this isn't a big pass rush/sack D, but Chris Jones is disruptive, and has a knack for playing his best at big moments in a game.  Frank clark has been disappointing this season, but he was getting around the corner pretty good VS cleveland...The other DE's are not pass rushing threats at all.  

 

 

Mahomes has proven these big games are not too big for him...and this is a battle tested, championship team, that brought back ALMOST the entire super bowl winning roster from last year.  They don't panic and with Mahomes on teh field, eveyrone knows there is always a chance until the clock hits zeros.  

 

Keep in mind, Mahomes has won 2 playoff games where the other team returned a blocked punt for a TD...he's 5-1 overall.  He's never finished 4 quarters of a playoff football game with his team having lost.  (only loss was OT in 2018 AFCCG where he never got the ball)  

 

 

In my opinion, this isn't a good matchup for the Bills in that what KC does best on D, is stop what Buffalo does best on O.  And while the Bills also have a very very good secondary....Travis Kelce is the difference maker.  ....and as seen before, if the Bills try to play a bunch of light boxes, KC will take what is given.  Also, without a strong 4 man rush, Mahomes will beat 7 man zones.

 

Ultimately, I think the Chiefs, are just a little too much for this very very good and talented Bills team.

Speaking of KC fans. Where has @Billlbeen?

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Ray Stonada]

Alright! Finally caught up and finished all 73 pages of the thread.

 

What's amazing to me is that after all the discussion and so many takes, so many talking heads, there is no clarity at all.

 

If the Bills win 38-17, I won't be surprised.

If it's a shootout decided by 1-3 points, I won't be surprised.

If KC beats Buffalo by three scores, I won't be surprised.

 

Anything could happen (except maybe a 7-3 game). The teams are really closely matched and both are explosive. Am I the only one who is finding the minutes ticking by unbearably slowly till Sunday?

[CEN-CAL17]

3 hours ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

I doubt he would miss a block assignment or botch a handoff. He’s not some incompetent rookie whose never played the game. 
 

but he probably won’t get carries bc of how the other guys have earned their current spots 

Question is, has he been slotted in for any ST role? If not it hard to take a guy out who has.... that’s McDs mindset 

[RobbRiddick]

4 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I'm still puzzled at how anyone thinks the chiefs are THAT much better than us lol even if we accept that we're a 3 or 4 point underdog that's literally 'one fumble or interception can completely swing the outcome of the game' territory...I've never seen the 'experts' almost universally say the game is going to be close and then all pick the same team before its really strange 

Were 3 point dogs and the chiefs haven't been covering spreads for months now... lol clearly these dudes are getting overvalued every week 

 

They have to say it'll be close because they want ratings but they probably believe it'll be a blowout