AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME! Bills at Chiefs, Sunday 6:40 pm on CBS

[par73]

11 minutes ago, Tuel Time said:

I have added him to the list. No bandwagon for you later Scotty.

I was going to mention Pioli. When asked what the Chiefs needed to do to win, he smirked, and said Mahomes just has to show up. For the Bills, he laughed-- tough to see how, and said Allen and Diggs would have to each have the game of their lives.

[Pokebball]

1 minute ago, par73 said:

I was going to mention Pioli. When asked what the Chiefs needed to do to win, he smirked, and said Mahomes just has to show up. For the Bills, he laughed-- tough to see how, and said Allen and Diggs would have to each have the game of their lives.

So lets plan on Allen and Diggs having the game of their lives.  I'm good with that.

[Process]

Forecast getting worse. We better be ready to play in rain/snow and some wind. 

[zow2]

6 minutes ago, Process said:

Forecast getting worse. We better be ready to play in rain/snow and some wind. 

 

Strap it up Bills.  The finesse team from Buffalo is gonna have to throw it in the rain. 

If it’s any consolation, the weather in KC looks worse on Monday. 

[njbuff]

3 hours ago, Success said:

 

LOL 

 

I mean, that's one of the most ridiculous takes I've heard.  Well, except Bradshaw taking the Ravens by 9, and then the Saints by 17, in the same weekend.   

 

I get "KC will likely win" (though I disagree), but "I don't think it takes a whole lot?"

 

I'm tellin' ya - I can't wait for the game. I watched the replay of the 1st mach-up last night - worst game I've seen us play since the Orton years, and we were down 6 with 5 minutes to go.  Bring on the Chiefs.

 

 

And they were an inch away from a Harrison Phillips fumble recovery from having the ball with a chance to take the lead late in a stinker game for the Bills.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[The Wiz]

40 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

A stat that will never get mentioned on live TV. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Not sure if this was posted

it’s a few days old

 

 

 

 

[BillsfaninSB]

1 hour ago, Process said:

Forecast getting worse. We better be ready to play in rain/snow and some wind. 

I wish the Bills were in all white.  Those dirty uniforms would look mean!

[Big Blitz]

Just thinking about it more and more....

 

I want to blitz and bring pressure from everywhere until Patrick Turf Toe makes us pay.  Attack attack attack.  Double A gap blitzes all night.  Have Hughes and Addison rush to contain.  Until we see how well he's moving around.  

 

Not 75% of the time.  But definitely more than half.  And early in a series.  Don't wait.  Rush 4 on the 3rd downs. 

 

The one thing about QBs numbers against the blitz in today's NFL is that if you have great skill guys.....odds are you are going up against garbage secondaries and can take advantage.  How many elite pass Ds are there in the league?  5?  I think we're one of them.  I have zero issue bringing 5 or 6 from any and all angles.   

 

 

Yes?  No?  

 

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

56 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

ahh— the ole point differential now used against our enemies!! How the tides have turned. 

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

@High Football IQCan you confirm ?

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Buffalo -vs- Everybody, Baby!  Got the Hoodie!

 

 

 

Its crazy to me that almost every prediction has the score super close yet theyre all picking the chiefs lol how is that even possible 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, RichRiderBills said:

Maybe why Pioli is unemployed. Didn't the Chiefs fire him?

 

I've been really unimpressed with his commentary all year.

 

Well, he’s employed by NFL as some kind of analyst I guess.  But Yes, the Chiefs fired him.  The place was a dumpster fire on his watch.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/8550269/flaws-chiefs-gm-scott-pioli-exposed

 

Quote

The first three major decisions Pioli made with the Chiefs went as follows: (1) He hired Todd Haley as head coach. (2) He traded for quarterback Matt Cassel. (3) He used the third overall selection in the 2009 draft on defensive end Tyson Jackson. The team ultimately fired Haley last December after an ugly, heavily publicized rift developed between him and Pioli. Cassel was just benched this week after producing 14 turnovers in his first five starts. Jackson remains on the roster

 

FWIW there’s some history; Daboll was hired as KC’s OC in 2012 after Pioli’s golden pick Todd Haley was forced out as HC in favor of Romeo Crennel.  The offense arguably got worse under Daboll, but it’s pretty clear that the organization was pretty toxic and polarized at that point, Cassel reportedly thought he was above taking coaching (while throwing pick after pick), morale was in the sewer, the race for the #1 draft pick was won, and everyone from Pioli on down was swept out of the building for 2013.  It’s not clear who could have succeeded as OC that year.

 

All that to say it wouldn’t surprise me if Daboll and Pioli might have some personal history which could get in the way of Pioli being able to professionally and impartially assess the Bills team, because he strikes me as the kind of man who believes he’s the Smartest Man in the Room and doesn’t need to reappraise, revisit, or question himself.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Process said:

Forecast getting worse. We better be ready to play in rain/snow and some wind. 

 

That means about as much as the forecast getting better at this point.  We might know something by Saturday.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

2 hours ago, Process said:

Forecast getting worse. We better be ready to play in rain/snow and some wind. 

the forecast is fluctuating a bit now. I don’t think we will have much certainty until Saturday, if I had to guess. Just a few hours ago it was like 1% chance of rain.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

the forecast is fluctuating a bit now. I don’t think we will have much certainty until Saturday, if I had to guess. Just a few hours ago it was like 1% chance of rain.

 

Yeah, if you look at the current surface map you kind of don’t need an advanced degree in meteorology to see why

(I tried to paste in a link to the current surface conditions & radar map but was disallowed)

 

 

[Zerovoltz]

Ok......here are my thoughts......from your favorite KC fan on this board (probably the only KC fan on this board, except @Yav He loves KC more than anyone I know) 

 

First a note about the weather.  Mahomes played college ball at Lubbock, TX.  That place is very windy and cold and sometimes snowy in winter.  Mahomes has played in a couple snow games with KC and many times in very cold temps.  KC does NOT change what they do (and unless it's a crazy deep snow game, they won't...and that isn't anticipated)  So....all of what I am saying here, applies regardless of weather.

 

WHEN KC HAS THE BALL:

 

Will use a ton of presnap motion to see that Bills coverage looks like.  Also use that presnap motion to show same play a few times...then start running 2 or 3 variants out same look to keep D off balance.

 

KC won't insist on trying to run into stacked boxes.  Mahomes will check out to a pass, and vice versa.  

 

KC will be looking, as they always do...to exploit matchups with Kelce.

 

If the Bills go with a heavy zone scheme...watch for KC to run a lot of "floods" to one side and let Patrick read the defenders either moving to cover, or staying in place...Mahomes will look to exploit the spot that wasn't/isn't covered in that situation.

 

KC's weak points on O.  

 

Interior O line....this group is a bottom 5 group and has been since Mitch Morse left.  KC's entire interior is 7th round or later JAGS that they get by with because Pat Mahomes.  RT has been a revolving door also since we lost Schwartz, our pro bowl RT.  Only LT Eric Fisher has been consistent....and most games he's solid but elite edge rushers get the better of him...fortunately, the Bills don't have a Bosa brother.  If you want to put a wrench in the works of the KC offense, a good way to do that is with interior pressure.  Teams that can rush 4 and get there in a hurry, give Mahomes trouble as he needs the time to sift through the 7 deep zones in that case.  

 

KC isn't a good red zone team.  Close in, if you can keep tabs on the small WR's, you've got a fighting chance....just have to make sure you've got Kelce fully accounted for.  No fade or jump ball options limits what KC does down close in.  Couple that with again, the POOR interior O line, you have a team that doesn't get a push in short yardage situations.....also limitiing what they do in close.  KC relies on Mahomes improvisation and shemed up misdirection type stuff down close to make up for this.  Holding KC to red zone field goals is a MUST for the BIlls.

 

 

WHEN BUFFALO HAS THE BALL:

 

The bills run more 3 and 4 WR sets than any team in the NFL....wich plays right into what KC does best on D.  KC allowed the fewest receptions by WR's for the year.  KC has a DEEP stable of very capable pass defenders who according to PFF (NOT a service I like, but just using the stat to make my point)  ....KC has 6 Corners ranked in the top 60 overall.  (or something like that)  If you do the math...PFF thinks KC has 6 guys who are good enough to start on just about every team in the leauge.  That isn't even counting Honey Badger.  Badger is used as an occasional blitzer, but generally plays an exceptional centerfield, and his AT SNAP reads are exceptoinal VS the run....counted a good number to times VS Cleveland where he flew up on pitches to the outside and turned the play back inside before the lead blocker could get to the inside defenders.  KC doesn't blitz a ton, but when they do, it's often a DB...KC will show alot of saftey action on the line and then havet those guys drop out the majority of the time.  CB L Jarious Sneed had a few sacks from the CB spot and is a deceptively good blitzer when called on.  ....As long as the Bills are in 3 and 4 wide...KC is going to give you a steady diet of Nickel and Dime packages...wich is what they prefer to be in.

 

If the Bills can generate a threatening running game....that gets KC into more base looks wich means KC's POOR LB corps is on the field more.  KC is among the worst LB units in the NFL at covering TE's and RB's out of the backfield with LB's.  It will take some doing to get KC out of Nickel.....as KC doesn't mind letting a team have chunk runs between the 20's as long as the big pass plays are held in check....strong chunks running in the red zone would make KC roll out the base D more often....thus removing some good DB's from the field and giving the Bills a better look to pass against.

 

Cleveland was generally getting the ball out pretty fast VS KC.  KC had no sacks...and this isn't a big pass rush/sack D, but Chris Jones is disruptive, and has a knack for playing his best at big moments in a game.  Frank clark has been disappointing this season, but he was getting around the corner pretty good VS cleveland...The other DE's are not pass rushing threats at all.  

 

 

Mahomes has proven these big games are not too big for him...and this is a battle tested, championship team, that brought back ALMOST the entire super bowl winning roster from last year.  They don't panic and with Mahomes on teh field, eveyrone knows there is always a chance until the clock hits zeros.  

 

Keep in mind, Mahomes has won 2 playoff games where the other team returned a blocked punt for a TD...he's 5-1 overall.  He's never finished 4 quarters of a playoff football game with his team having lost.  (only loss was OT in 2018 AFCCG where he never got the ball)  

 

 

In my opinion, this isn't a good matchup for the Bills in that what KC does best on D, is stop what Buffalo does best on O.  And while the Bills also have a very very good secondary....Travis Kelce is the difference maker.  ....and as seen before, if the Bills try to play a bunch of light boxes, KC will take what is given.  Also, without a strong 4 man rush, Mahomes will beat 7 man zones.

 

Ultimately, I think the Chiefs, are just a little too much for this very very good and talented Bills team.

[transplantbillsfan]

Anyone else get the feeling Davonta Freeman is going to be active and play a role?

[buffalo2218]

1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Anyone else get the feeling Davonta Freeman is going to be active and play a role?

I’d prefer Antonio Williams over Freeman