Rochesterfan Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 23 hours ago, Chaos said: 1. I am not a huge Watson fan. I don't think he belongs in the same conversation as Mahomes or Allen. 2. I was impressed by Herbert this year. Burrows also before he got hurt. Neither is yet in the same conversation as Mahomes or Allen, but maybe someday. 3. Not sure the rookie contract window is four years from now in real life. Mahomes & Watson signed their extensions after their third season. Allen is expected to this year. If Hebert is on this same level his window is two more cheap seasons, not four. 4. If you write off the 2021 season, then the cheap QB window could be as short as one competitive season. The analysis really comes down to this question? Who better allows me to compete with the Mahomes led chiefs for the next 10 years, Herbert or Watson. Rookie contract windows aside, I think the answer is Herbert. But for discussion purposes, if the GM truly thinks Watson is a top 3 NFL QB talent over the next decade and will join Mahomes & Allen to create the new version of the Brady/Manning/Rothisberger rivalry. And the GM sees Herbert as more in the Carson Palmer category (nice QB, long career, but not quite elite), then you might consider making the trade. Given the Chargers history of giving up Brees to go with Rivers, this might be impossible to do. Flip the script, if you were the Washington Football team, would you trade Chase Young to the Texans for Watson? If you were the Giants, would trade Daniel Jones & your 2021 first rd pick for Watson? If the answer to the these questions is no, then what level of compensation would anyone give up for Watson? First the contract window on a rookie is still 5 years. Even after Mahomes and Watson signed their deals - their cap hits this year were both under 10 million and although they jump in year 5 Mahomes is under 25 million and Watson is only 16 million. After year 5 the extension kicks in and their cap hits jump to close to 40 million - so yes they are still cost contained for 5 years. Basically if Herbert continues to grow they can extend him after year 3, but still get year 4 cheap and the 5th year option before the extension kicks in. That means a difference of paying Watson 40.4 million in 2022 and Herbert 7.5 million and that to me is huge. I personally think Watson is a top level QB - probably in tier 2 overall just below the elites, but he is a franchise level guy that has been screwed around by his team. The list of teams that would not make a deal is and should be small. Your example given if I was the Giants and you offered me Watson for Jones and my first - I would be all over that in half a second - that would be a huge steal for the Giants. If I am Miami - I would strongly consider Tua and the #3 for Watson. I have seen enough Tua throws to question his downfield throws and Watson is immediately better now. Washington to me is interesting, but in reality undoable. Chase Young looks and acts like a leader you want on your team, but straight up - I probably make the trade, but I don’t see Houston getting just a DE back - they would need a pick and/or a QB. The QBs that I’d keep myself would be: Allen, Mahomes, Rodgers, Herbert, Burrows, and that is about it. There are a few guys I would put in the “I could go either way” group: Murray, Lamar Jackson, Lawerence at #1, I will put Rodgers here also due to age, Wilson. Those guys it depends upon what I want to accomplish as a team. Pretty much every one else - I am willing to trade picks, young QBs, packages to get Watson to develop around. That is my feeling on it. You have a shot at a top 5-7 young QB - that positions you for the next 15 years - you take it and figure the rest out later.
Bill from NYC Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 On 1/17/2021 at 2:30 PM, Coach Tuesday said: But worse. They will destroy their remaining ability to attract quality free agents and coaches. The locker room will be poisoned. I’m telling you it will lead to McNair having to sell. You simply cannot do it. The fans too are sure to be outraged. As I have said before, the only way they can make this work is if it involved getting Trevor Lawrence, and Houston doesn't have the draft capital to toss into the mix along with Watson. And CT, I know that a case can be made that it would be dumb ever to trade a proven QB for a draft pick. Still, in this case Lawrence would be an even bigger draw than Watson. If he is good the franchise will skyrocket in value. Jmo, and as I said, Houston doesn't have enough to close that deal with Jax. I suppose nobody does. 1
Rochesterfan Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 24 minutes ago, BITE ME said: Why would any owner involve him in a head coach decision? He is pushing for an offensive coordinator to be head coach. This is the worst defense in the NFL and he wants an offensive coordinator. Guy is clueless and acts like a child who is crying because the didn't get what he wanted. He is anything but a leader. I totally disagree - He is their best player and he has just gone through a HC that ran out a GM many of the players liked and respected for his honesty in Gaines. The HC then replaced said GM, way overpaid to make a run last year, and then traded away their 2nd best player in Hopkins for pennies. I believe the team should have talked with him about the upcoming decisions- I get why the GM hire went the way it did - they got the guy they wanted last year, but NE shut the door on, but they could have been honest about that. I believe what Watson is looking for is a bit of diversity in who he is dealing with and who is dealing with the team. The Houston ownership group has already shown a lack of cultural diversity in how they spoke in the past, how they treated cultural diverse hires like Gaines, how they treated cultural diverse players like Hopkins, etc. He is looking for some level of understanding and a desire to at least look at candidates hat will understand these players. I truly think Watson is a leader and speaks for a large percentage of the team, but I also agree with @GunnerBill - at this point the silent treatment is not the answer. Be vocal and be strong and tell them why - it may not change anything, but at least others hear you and understand. Watson is a bit stuck at this point as he is under a huge contract and if the team doesn’t want to trade him - even sitting out does little good. Bell could sit out because it was the final year - Watson has until 2025 - so he is stuck. He is going to play - make yourself heard and use your voice for others.
GunnerBill Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 41 minutes ago, BITE ME said: Why would any owner involve him in a head coach decision? He is pushing for an offensive coordinator to be head coach. This is the worst defense in the NFL and he wants an offensive coordinator. Guy is clueless and acts like a child who is crying because the didn't get what he wanted. He is anything but a leader. Owners involve franchise Quarterbacks pretty frequently. The point really is that Cal give him a promise that he would. He didn't have to promise that, and if you don't intend to deliver don't promise that you will. 1
BITE ME Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 45 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Owners involve franchise Quarterbacks pretty frequently. The point really is that Cal give him a promise that he would. He didn't have to promise that, and if you don't intend to deliver don't promise that you will. When the franchise quarterbacks are responsible. Watson is not responsible. He is a clown. He immediately went public and said he wanted Saleh or Bieniemy (shockingly only wanted black coaches) without meeting with any of them or doing any due diligence. It is beyond laughable. How does he know those coaches would even want to coach a Prima Donna like him. He is a spoiled brat who was laughed at by Mahomes and they got all rattled because they traded away his receiver in a required rebuild. That team was blown out TWICE last year by Mahomes. 1 1
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said: I totally disagree - He is their best player and he has just gone through a HC that ran out a GM many of the players liked and respected for his honesty in Gaines. The HC then replaced said GM, way overpaid to make a run last year, and then traded away their 2nd best player in Hopkins for pennies. I believe the team should have talked with him about the upcoming decisions- I get why the GM hire went the way it did - they got the guy they wanted last year, but NE shut the door on, but they could have been honest about that. I believe what Watson is looking for is a bit of diversity in who he is dealing with and who is dealing with the team. The Houston ownership group has already shown a lack of cultural diversity in how they spoke in the past, how they treated cultural diverse hires like Gaines, how they treated cultural diverse players like Hopkins, etc. He is looking for some level of understanding and a desire to at least look at candidates hat will understand these players. I truly think Watson is a leader and speaks for a large percentage of the team, but I also agree with @GunnerBill - at this point the silent treatment is not the answer. Be vocal and be strong and tell them why - it may not change anything, but at least others hear you and understand. Watson is a bit stuck at this point as he is under a huge contract and if the team doesn’t want to trade him - even sitting out does little good. Bell could sit out because it was the final year - Watson has until 2025 - so he is stuck. He is going to play - make yourself heard and use your voice for others. His value goes up because of the contract honestly. 5 years 146.5 for a new team acquiring him - and his cap hit is low for 2021 when the cap is likely at its lowest. It's not cheap but if he's a top 5-10 QB its actually pretty good. I'd say play hard-ball - but good luck getting free agents to sign with your team when you basically are holding a pro-bowler hostage during the prime of his career. If I'm the owner, i sit down with him and figure out what it takes to keep him here. Edited January 19, 2021 by dneveu 1
mannc Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 2 hours ago, Rochesterfan said: First the contract window on a rookie is still 5 years. Even after Mahomes and Watson signed their deals - their cap hits this year were both under 10 million and although they jump in year 5 Mahomes is under 25 million and Watson is only 16 million. After year 5 the extension kicks in and their cap hits jump to close to 40 million - so yes they are still cost contained for 5 years. Basically if Herbert continues to grow they can extend him after year 3, but still get year 4 cheap and the 5th year option before the extension kicks in. That means a difference of paying Watson 40.4 million in 2022 and Herbert 7.5 million and that to me is huge. I personally think Watson is a top level QB - probably in tier 2 overall just below the elites, but he is a franchise level guy that has been screwed around by his team. The list of teams that would not make a deal is and should be small. Your example given if I was the Giants and you offered me Watson for Jones and my first - I would be all over that in half a second - that would be a huge steal for the Giants. If I am Miami - I would strongly consider Tua and the #3 for Watson. I have seen enough Tua throws to question his downfield throws and Watson is immediately better now. Washington to me is interesting, but in reality undoable. Chase Young looks and acts like a leader you want on your team, but straight up - I probably make the trade, but I don’t see Houston getting just a DE back - they would need a pick and/or a QB. The QBs that I’d keep myself would be: Allen, Mahomes, Rodgers, Herbert, Burrows, and that is about it. There are a few guys I would put in the “I could go either way” group: Murray, Lamar Jackson, Lawerence at #1, I will put Rodgers here also due to age, Wilson. Those guys it depends upon what I want to accomplish as a team. Pretty much every one else - I am willing to trade picks, young QBs, packages to get Watson to develop around. That is my feeling on it. You have a shot at a top 5-7 young QB - that positions you for the next 15 years - you take it and figure the rest out later. The salary cap analysis here is spot on, but you are way off WRT what Watson would command in trade. Chase Young, straight up for Watson? Are you serious? It would cost Chase Young, a first and another high pick to even be in the conversation. And Tua and 3 overall? Again, not even close. It would take Tua, both ones this year, and another high pick. (Tua not worth much at this point) And the Giants would probably have to offer three number ones and Jones, who had very little value at this point. You’re right that most teams in the league should be interested, but not many have the ammunition to get it done. I’ve always thought the Jets made the most sense as a landing place. Darnold, both ones and a second might be enough...
TheFunPolice Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 What about the Rams? Donald and a first, with another lower pick added in.
mannc Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Bill from NYC said: The fans too are sure to be outraged. As I have said before, the only way they can make this work is if it involved getting Trevor Lawrence, and Houston doesn't have the draft capital to toss into the mix along with Watson. And CT, I know that a case can be made that it would be dumb ever to trade a proven QB for a draft pick. Still, in this case Lawrence would be an even bigger draw than Watson. If he is good the franchise will skyrocket in value. Jmo, and as I said, Houston doesn't have enough to close that deal with Jax. I suppose nobody does. It’s not that Watson isn’t worth the Lawrence pick—it’s that Jacksonville has tanked so hard to get it, they have to stay the course. The five or six fans they have left would mutiny if they don’t get Lawrence... 6 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said: What about the Rams? Donald and a first, with another lower pick added in. Not even close. Donald is going to be 30 this year and has a huge contract. And the Rams’ first is 23 or 24 overall. Edited January 19, 2021 by mannc
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 2 hours ago, H2o said: I understand Watson is the face of the franchise (at this point), but how does that make him worthy of being involved in every decision within the football operations? He didn't have to sign that contract, but he did for the money. He knew who was there. He saw what they did to D-Hop. He still signed the extension. Now, because they aren't seeking his approval for every decision, he wants to force his way out of Houston? Just because you are the highest paid player on the team doesn't mean you can also basically run the entire organization. To me it's selfish and a Prima-Donna type move. Let's be fair to Watson and point out that he isn't asking to be involved in every decision, and he believes he should be involved in the GM and HC hiring decisions because Cal McNair met with him and promised to involve him. When people are promised something, it's reasonable of them to expect follow-through. Apparently McNair set a process for finding a GM involving a consultant company to identify/vet talent and a search team of advisors. He said (no one forced him to say this) that Easterby would not be involved in the GM hiring decision. Instead, he threw the list in the trash and bypassed the process HE HIMSELF said he would follow, to fly off to NE with Easterby and hire Caserio. That's not follow-through
H2o Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Let's be fair to Watson and point out that he isn't asking to be involved in every decision, and he believes he should be involved in the GM and HC hiring decisions because Cal McNair met with him and promised to involve him. When people are promised something, it's reasonable of them to expect follow-through. There were "reports" he was was to be involved in both. McNair said he would keep him "in the loop" during the coaching search. Either way, Deshaun comes off as a kid who is mad he got a strawberry Blow-Pop instead of watermelon one to me. You knew where you were at. You see how previous situations have been handled. You still signed the contract to get that $$$ a couple months after they shipped Nuk out of town. Now you want to be up in arms about the GM hire and not answer texts/phone calls? Very professional and not prima-donna-esque at all, no. Trade him for a massive haul, or let him sit and not get paid at all. It's on him, or at least act like an adult while trying to work through it. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, H2o said: There were "reports" he was was to be involved in both. McNair said he would keep him "in the loop" during the coaching search. Either way, Deshaun comes off as a kid who is mad he got a strawberry Blow-Pop instead of watermelon one to me. You knew where you were at. You see how previous situations have been handled. You still signed the contract to get that $$$ a couple months after they shipped Nuk out of town. Now you want to be up in arms about the GM hire and not answer texts/phone calls? Very professional and not prima-donna-esque at all, no. Trade him for a massive haul, or let him sit and not get paid at all. It's on him, or at least act like an adult while trying to work through it. You're entitled to an opinion.
K-9 Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 (edited) The more I read and hear about the situation in Houston, the less I put any blame on Watson, who is a a legit star at the position. The Texans are run by a couple nut jobs and when you hear these reports of how uncomfortable rank and file employees are made to feel with these nut jobs, you have to assume that type of discomfort touches everyone throughout the organization. They’ve got a huge culture/credibility problem that won’t be readily solved. Edited January 19, 2021 by K-9 1
Rochesterfan Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, mannc said: The salary cap analysis here is spot on, but you are way off WRT what Watson would command in trade. Chase Young, straight up for Watson? Are you serious? It would cost Chase Young, a first and another high pick to even be in the conversation. And Tua and 3 overall? Again, not even close. It would take Tua, both ones this year, and another high pick. (Tua not worth much at this point) And the Giants would probably have to offer three number ones and Jones, who had very little value at this point. You’re right that most teams in the league should be interested, but not many have the ammunition to get it done. I’ve always thought the Jets made the most sense as a landing place. Darnold, both ones and a second might be enough... Those trades were thrown out by the poster I was responding to - not what I would suggest for Watson. He was questioning if other teams would make trades. I think Watson is worth more than he thought. 1
RoyBatty is alive Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 8:59 AM, GunnerBill said: The Fins can still afford to upgrade the receiving corps even if they sign Watson. They are in very good cap shape, young team not paying a bunch of people. i have said the best place for a trade is Miami. Tua is mediocre at best, he has a very low ceiling BUT he does 2 things for the Texans....gives them "cover" for his is an alleged QB with great potential and PR and he is a god fearing family man, something very important to McNair. Plus the Dolphins have a wealth of draft capital (somewhat thanks to the bone headed trades by the Texans). Watson goes to Miami, tax free state with an AA HC and one of the ucoming stars. The Texans get Tua plus draft picks.
blitzboy54 Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 On 1/17/2021 at 2:19 PM, whatdrought said: So freaking nice to be on this list. Weird that TB is on this list and Bal isn't. Wonder if that's a typo 1
Doc Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 5 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I don't think you can blame Watson for the Tunsil trade..... that is a stretch. He is complaining about the broken promises from ownership and the continuing influence of a non-Football guy in football decision making. They are his two complaints. Not money. Not specific personnel moves..... it is about his trust in the guys upstairs. He feels like all they do is lie to him. Ever worked for a boss like that? Were you ticked off? Did you try and leave the company? Yea..... I wasn't blaming him for the Tunsil trade. I was trying to say that it was made to help him so any dismay over lost draft picks are misplaced, and Tunsil has made the Pro Bowl the past 2 years. But why he thinks he should have any say on the GM and/or HC is anyone's guess, and they were never going to truly involve him, so as I said he was either going to be pissed-off before when they said "no, we're not going to involve you" or after. And as they say, it's better to ask for forgiveness... I'm sure he's looking at the state of the franchise and how things will be bad for the foreseeable future and that's his main impetus in trying to leave, despite the warning signs being there well before he had no problem accepting a lot of money from them. Again the hiring of Caserio was widely-hailed so Easterby isn't doing such a bad job, is he?
GunnerBill Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 19 minutes ago, Doc said: I wasn't blaming him for the Tunsil trade. I was trying to say that it was made to help him so any dismay over lost draft picks are misplaced, and Tunsil has made the Pro Bowl the past 2 years. But why he thinks he should have any say on the GM and/or HC is anyone's guess, and they were never going to truly involve him, so as I said he was either going to be pissed-off before when they said "no, we're not going to involve you" or after. And as they say, it's better to ask for forgiveness... I'm sure he's looking at the state of the franchise and how things will be bad for the foreseeable future and that's his main impetus in trying to leave, despite the warning signs being there well before he had no problem accepting a lot of money from them. Again the hiring of Caserio was widely-hailed so Easterby isn't doing such a bad job, is he? It is about trust. Football players are still humans. If you don't trust your bosses that is a problem. As I said the one point where Deshaun needs to do better is he needs to confront these issues and not ignore them. Answer the phone, get back in the building and be completely and brutally frank and honest.
Rico Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 So, so glad he is not on the Bills, and (more importantly) the Bills have absolutely no need for him.
Doc Posted January 19, 2021 Posted January 19, 2021 24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: It is about trust. Football players are still humans. If you don't trust your bosses that is a problem. As I said the one point where Deshaun needs to do better is he needs to confront these issues and not ignore them. Answer the phone, get back in the building and be completely and brutally frank and honest. I agree about trust. But I find it funny that he thinks he knows anything and should be consulted on GM and/or coaching hires.
Recommended Posts