The coin toss and the wind

[Super Mighty]

When the Bills deferred and the Ravens (obviously) chose to receive the kick, the Bills took the wind with them in the first quarter (rather than give the Ravens the ball and the wind).  In the second half, the Ravens chose the reverse, to have the wind with them in the fourth quarter, allowing the Bills first drive to be with the wind.  Kind of repeating what others have said, but the Bills only get to choose which direction they want to start in one half (in this case, the first), and they chose to have the Ravens opening drive into the wind.  

[Nextmanup]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

We wanted the ball at the half.  What’s so hard to understand.  YOU prioritized the wind over the ball at the half.  McD doesn’t. You don’t NEED to understand anything.  You SHOULD get over it and move on with your life 💯 

But but but.

 

mcd >> @zow2

Given the direct impact the wind had on the kicking game last night, McDermott was probably wrong to have prioritized possession over playing direction.

 

Or at least his team that thinks about things like this.

 

They arguably got it wrong.

 

The wind took 9 points off the board last night.

 

We're lucky one of those kicks wasn't the one we needed to avoid a loss.

 

EDIT:  The wind was well documented to be moving length-wise down the field towards the tunnel end.  Talked about all week from meteorologists in WNY.  I know b/c I watched about 10 weather videos at Channels 2, 4, and 7.

 

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by Nextmanup

[Doc]

It's a learning moment.  I'm sure they'll analyze it.

[zow2]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

We won.  McDermott made the right choice. Prove him wrong

 

I agree he made the correct call last night. Obviously. We Won.

 

Been watching Bills for nearly 50 years. I still contend that in all wind games at Orchard Park (from the west like last night), the points are overwhelmingly in favor of the wind at your back.  it’s probably like 2:1.

 

So since we deferred, I would’ve kicked off into the wind so Buffalo could have it at their backs for Q2, knowing Baltimore would take it for Q4.   But obviously in this specific game, McD’s strategy worked out. Thankfully

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Nextmanup said:

Given the direct impact the wind had on the kicking game last night, McDermott was probably wrong to have prioritized possession over playing direction.

 

Or at least his team that thinks about things like this.

 

They arguably got it wrong.

 

The wind took 9 points off the board last night.

 

We're lucky one of those kicks wasn't the one we needed to avoid a loss.

 

EDIT:  The wind was well documented to be moving length-wise down the field towards the tunnel end.  Talked about all week from meteorologists in WNY.  I know b/c I watched about 10 weather videos at Channels 2, 4, and 7.

 

 

Grats to you for watching the news.

 

this wind took 6 of their points off the board.  If he wouldn’t switched up the wind, they may have made the kicks.  Bass may have missed all 3 of his kicks.  Coulda, shoulda, woulda.....Nonsense.  Let’s talk about what happened instead of talking about the land of make believe please.

 

I watched the Bills take the 2nd half kickoff, which was his choice.....and score the game winning TD on that drive.  
 

 

[Ralonzo]

1 hour ago, DrDare said:

I agree with the poster

 

Also you can choose the wind and still get the ball to start the 2nd half by chance

 

On winning the coin flip you get dibs of 4 choices: receive, kick, defend a goal, or defer your preference to the second half.

 

Generally the winner will defer because it's advantageous to have your choice in the 2nd half. Then the losing team has dibs and will usually take the ball for first possession.

 

I vaguely recall one of those Witch Of November games in the 90's at the Rich against the Cardinals and if my memory serves Marv Levy opted to get the wind in the 2nd and 4th quarters, and kelly went bombs away with the wind and it was a complete rout.

 

Yep, wayback machine has it: November 11 1990, Bills 45 Cardinals 14. ALL of the scoring in the game came in the direction with the wind. The Bills had the ball in the 2nd and 4th and ran roughshod.

 

 

This is the one thing Allen hasn't mastered yet is how to gauge the wind in the home stadium. Kelly would lob the ball up as if it was a 30 yard throw knowing it was going to travel 50, and it did.

 

[zow2]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Grats to you for watching the news.

 

this wind took 6 of their points off the board.  If he wouldn’t switched up the wind, they may have made the kicks.  Bass may have missed all 3 of his kicks.  Coulda, shoulda, woulda.....Nonsense.  Let’s talk about what happened instead of talking about the land of make believe please.

 

I watched the Bills take the 2nd half kickoff, which was his choice.....and score the game winning TD on that drive.  
 

 

 

No doubt.  no one is denying that it worked out perfectly.

after our 1 third Qtr possession (TD), Baltimore was about to make it 10-6 or 10-10 and have the wind in their favor for the 4th.  It could’ve been the difference in the game but Taron Johnson changed the game entirely with one play.

[Ralonzo]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Parcels sometimes would play with the wind an d put his defense on the field first in the first quarter. The thought was to get a first quarter lead with the opponent battling the wind and Lawrence Taylor.

 

Back before all the offense-favoring rules changes to make football more like something implemented by James Naismith than George Patton, the field position game was more important than simply having the ball, because rarely was a team just marching up and down the field at will.

[prissythecat]

1 hour ago, Beerball said:

So, McD's mistake was winning the toss.  He's an idiot.

 

McD does seem to elicit a whole range of different feelings.    He even made  someone feel really depressed back in November because he apparently wasn't elite like a Vrabel or Belichick.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

When you're playing a team that is a run 1st pass 2nd and is known to have a tough time coming back when they get behind, you want to get them playing from behind ASAP.  Now the Bills scored only 3 in the 1st half, but by the time Baltimore got the wind in the 4th quarter the game was basically over, especially after Jackson went out.  

The problem with the OP is one size doesn't fit all.  You don't mind Baltimore, which has a hard time coming back getting the wind in the 4th quarter, but you wouldn't want to face Mahomes with a wind advantage in the 4th quarter even with a 14 point lead.  

I wasn't advocating for what Parcells did I was just pointing out a historical fact. Others have tried it with dominant defenses and it didn't really work.  

In the end I don; thin it matters much.  Yes if you are coming from behind in the 4th quarter having the wind would be great.  Having a lead in the fourth quarter would be better though no matter how you got it.

2 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

On winning the coin flip you get dibs of 4 choices: receive, kick, defend a goal, or defer your preference to the second half.

 

Generally the winner will defer because it's advantageous to have your choice in the 2nd half. Then the losing team has dibs and will usually take the ball for first possession.

 

I vaguely recall one of those Witch Of November games in the 90's at the Rich against the Cardinals and if my memory serves Marv Levy opted to get the wind in the 2nd and 4th quarters, and kelly went bombs away with the wind and it was a complete rout.

 

Yep, wayback machine has it: November 11 1990, Bills 45 Cardinals 14. ALL of the scoring in the game came in the direction with the wind. The Bills had the ball in the 2nd and 4th and ran roughshod.

 

 

This is the one thing Allen hasn't mastered yet is how to gauge the wind in the home stadium. Kelly would lob the ball up as if it was a 30 yard throw knowing it was going to travel 50, and it did.

 

I was at that game. Drove up from Cleveland for it with no tickets.  The game started out ok, but you could see and watch the front moving in and over the stadium.  

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, prissythecat said:

The team who lost the coin toss typically gets the chance to choose which side to play on...

Exactly, if you win the toss you don't get to defer AND choose the side. Considering how often it's windy in Buffalo you definitely have to factor this in.

[JerseyBills]

3 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

When you're playing a team that is a run 1st pass 2nd and is known to have a tough time coming back when they get behind, you want to get them playing from behind ASAP.  Now the Bills scored only 3 in the 1st half, but by the time Baltimore got the wind in the 4th quarter the game was basically over, especially after Jackson went out.  

The problem with the OP is one size doesn't fit all.  You don't mind Baltimore, which has a hard time coming back getting the wind in the 4th quarter, but you wouldn't want to face Mahomes with a wind advantage in the 4th quarter even with a 14 point lead.  

Exactly my thoughts but we won the toss , Bal chose which end zone to defend 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 hours ago, zow2 said:

Let me start by saying I'm thrilled with the win.. I couldn't even sleep last night. Just an unreal season and it's still going.

 

One thing that bothered me. and this is the 2nd time under McDermott in a high wind game  (happened vs. Philly last year i believe).

 

Even though we WON the coin toss we somehow allowed our opponent to have the wind at their backs in the 2nd and 4th quarters.  Can someone explain how that happened?  That can't be allowed to happen.  The 2nd and 4th are the two most important quarters because they are more drawn out.  There are timeouts, 2-minute warning, etc.. Teams usually go up tempo before the end of halves and there are more plays.  There are usually last second FG attempts at the end of 2nd Qtr and end of games. 

The 1st and 3rd quarters are usually fast and end quickly. 

 

We basically had one possession in the 3rd quarter with the wind and scored a TD with it..  Fortunately Taron Johnson gave us a second TD in that Qtr.

 

If it was a close game, Baltimore would have had the wind and better chance to kick a game winning FG at the buzzer.

 

I need to understand why McD has allowed this to happen in such a big game.

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I am confused as to how the coin toss works. If you win the toss and you defer, do you lose the option of picking direction? 

 

I'm about 95% certain the way it works is as follows

 

At the pre-game coin toss whichever team wins the toss gets :

 

The opportunity to defer or not defer their choice and the choices are:

(a) to kickoff or receive

(b) The choice of goal his team will defend.

 

Which ever team loses the coin toss gets to make the same choice at the beginning of the 3rd quarter (kind of anti-climatic so it's not talked about much)

 

What that means is if the Bills chose which end to defend, the the Ravens would say OK we'll receive the ball.

 

Then at the beginning of the 3rd quarter, since the Ravens didn't get the choice pre-game they now get to decide what they want to do so they could easily and likely chose to again receive the ball.  So the Ravens would have received the ball to both begin the game and 3rd quarter

 

There would have been the option at the 3rd quarter for the Ravens to instead make the choice of which end to defend, then the Bills could have elected to receive, but the odds of Baltimore making that choice is low.

 

What did happen was pregame the Bills made the choice to kick off, so then Baltimore got to decide which end to defend.

 

Then the beginning of Q3 the Bills elected to receive so again Baltimore got to choose the end they wanted.

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

4 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

 

I'm about 95% certain the way it works is as follows

 

At the pre-game coin toss whichever team wins the toss gets :

 

The opportunity to defer or not defer their choice and the choices are:

(a) to kickoff or receive

(b) The choice of goal his team will defend.

 

Which ever team loses the coin toss gets to make the same choice at the beginning of the 3rd quarter (kind of anti-climatic so it's not talked about much)

 

What that means is if the Bills chose which end to defend, the the Ravens would say OK we'll receive the ball.

 

Then at the beginning of the 3rd quarter, since the Ravens didn't get the choice pre-game they now get to decide what they want to do so they could easily and likely chose to again receive the ball.  So the Ravens would have received the ball to both begin the game and 3rd quarter

 

There would have been the option at the 3rd quarter for the Ravens to instead make the choice of which end to defend, then the Bills could have elected to receive, but the odds of Baltimore making that choice is low.

 

What did happen was pregame the Bills made the choice to kick off, so then Baltimore got to decide which end to defend.

 

Then the beginning of Q3 the Bills elected to receive so again Baltimore got to choose the end they wanted.

 

This makes sense. As I recall, the Bills a long time ago (may have been Wade) in a game ended up basically picking the direction, forfeiting receiving the ball in both and the first and second halves. I think it caused some confusion for the fans and the announcers. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

46 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

This makes sense. As I recall, the Bills a long time ago (may have been Wade) in a game ended up basically picking the direction, forfeiting receiving the ball in both and the first and second halves. I think it caused some confusion for the fans and the announcers. 

 

Actually as I thought about it some more I realized my response was not 100 correct.

 

I stated:

 

The opportunity to defer or not defer their choice and the choices are:

(a) to kickoff or receive

(b) The choice of goal his team will defend.

 

 

What you really have is three choices:

 

The opportunity to defer or not defer their choice and the choices are:

(a) to kickoff

       or

(b) receive

       or

(c) The choice of goal his team will defend.

 

There are really three choices you can pick from though of the first two, one is kind of inclusive of the other

 

I also recall a more recent instance almost think it might have even been a playoff game where the player went out and stated "We'll defend this goal" rather than deferring

[Billznut]

Does anyone have the official tally of how the coin toss has gone for the Bills through the first 18 games this season? It’s seems like we have won an unusually large percentage of the coin tosses if my memory serves right.