Bills Offense versus Elite Defenses

[hondo in seattle]

A lot of people expect the Ravens to win on Saturday.  The narrative goes something like this:  The Ravens will run all over the Bills.  And the Bills offense will be slowed by the excellent Ravens D.

 

I'm not so sure.   I'm not underestimating the Ravens - they're a great football team.  But I do think some folks are underestimating the Bills.  

 

Here are the top defenses (yards allowed) in the NFL:

 

1.  LA Rams

2.  Washington

3.  Steelers

4.  NO

5.  SF

 

We've played three of the top five and beat all of them.   We averaged 386 yards and 31.7 points against these premier defensive squads.  Why would we expect the Ravens D to do any better?  The Bills are a passing team and - statistically speaking - the Raven's pass D (ranked #6) isn't as good as the pass defenses in LA, Pittsburg or San Fran.   We've obliterated defenses better than the one in Baltimore.  

So if we play to our norm against top tier defenses and hang 32 points on the Ravens, can their Greg Roman rushing attack put up 33?   

 

Maybe.   They did average 29 points per game during the regular season.  They only need to find 4 more - in the playoffs... in Buffalo... in the cold... against a fired up team. 

 

I'm just not counting on it.   

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Saxum]

Part of reason is because many of our WRs are injured.

[KingBoots8]

I hope this is the pregame speech Josh has in mind

[dlonce]

I agree. The Ravens are no where near an elite defense.

If they blitz there is no way their DBs can match up one on one with our receivers. If they don’t then Allen will pick them apart.

Pick your poison.

 

They can run if they want and put up 3s while we put up 7s. I’ll take that all day long.

 

The Bills have beaten the best league wide defenses.

At home, in less then perfect weather conditions, will give the offense an advantage.

 

Daboll needs to get back to what we did best during the last quarter of the season. This isn’t a take what they give you situation, it’s a take what you want situation. Stop with the JA QB draws. We did that early in the season.

 

If the game plan is playing scared then the Bills will likely lose.

[Frat-Train]

Only one reason they don’t perform...   Divisional round jitters.  Other than that...

 

Let’s go kill some birds, I’m psyched!!!

[Don Otreply]

We are so gonna kick their azsez!

 

Go Bills!!!

[dlonce]

17 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

Part of reason is because many of our WRs are injured.

 

The heads are always looking for ways to qualify a pick.

Florio earlier said he’s picking the Ravens because of how the Bills played against the Colts. He must have expected a blow out. Stephen A Smith is picking the Bills because of inclement weather. The excuses are arriving.

So glad the games played on the field.

 

Everyone is injured at this point. Diggs looked pretty good last week being “injured” and it would be next man up if Beasley is too injured to be effective.

Should be a good game.

Edited January 15, 2021 by dlonce

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

A lot of people expect the Ravens to win on Saturday.  The narrative goes something like this:  The Ravens will run all over the Bills.  And the Bills offense will be slowed by the excellent Ravens D.

 

I'm not so sure.   I'm not underestimating the Ravens - they're a great football team.  But I do think some folks are underestimating the Bills.  

 

Here are the top defenses (yards allowed) in the NFL:

 

1.  LA Rams

2.  Washington

3.  Steelers

4.  NO

5.  SF

 

We've played three of the top five and beat all of them.   We averaged 386 yards and 31.7 points against these premier defensive squads.  Why would we expect the Ravens D to do any better?  The Bills are a passing team and - statistically speaking - the Raven's pass D (ranked #6) isn't as good as the pass defenses in LA, Pittsburg or San Fran.   We've obliterated defenses better than the one in Baltimore.  

So if we play to our norm against top tier defenses and hang 32 points on the Ravens, can their Greg Roman rushing attack put up 33?   

 

Maybe.   They did average 29 points per game during the regular season.  They only need to find 4 more - in the playoffs... in Buffalo... in the cold... against a fired up team. 

 

I'm just not counting on it.   

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m not saying I disagree with you, but the Steelers and Niners were both short handed.  The Steelers were missing their best corner in Haden.  While the Steelers D was really good, they fell off some when they lost Bush and fell off a cliff when they lost Dupree, giving up an average of 28+ a game over the last 6 games.  Not to mention, they played one of the easiest schedules.  

The niners were missing their slot corner K’Waun Williams and Emmanuel Mosley and decided they were just going to sit back and let Josh stand in the pocket all game and dice them up. They didn’t bring any pressure all game.  It was a terrible game plan by Saleh imo.
 

The Rams, we balled out!  Credit to our O

 

that said....I think our O can take them to the woodshed if they play a fair share of man.  If they play mostly zone and their blitz can get home, it could be a tough one. The Ravens cornerbacks are much better than most cB units. That’s the main reason why people think they match up well imo

[GunnerBill]

The Ravens have a better secondary than those other 3 teams in fairness (LA is close) but I am not worried about the Bills moving the ball and scoring and I agree if we get to 30 I am not sure Baltimore can keep up.

[hondo in seattle]

14 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

Part of reason is because many of our WRs are injured.

 

That's the big concern.  I wonder how badly hurt Diggs, Beasley and Smoke really are.   We can't expect the info coming from the team to be perfectly accurate.  

 

All are on the mend - hopefully nearing 100%.  

[Mc1320]

The Browns torched this defense on Monday night when Lamar had the runs both on and off the field, putting up almost 500 yards. Ravens D stats are also inflated because they played the NFC East offenses this year.

 

Jimmy Smith and whoever their 4th DB ends up being should be in for a long night.  Martindale gets credit for blitzing as much as he does, but he kept blitzing Mahomes and Mahomes kept torching them all night long.

[hondo in seattle]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’m not saying I disagree with you, but the Steelers and Niners were both short handed.  The Steelers were missing their best corner in Haden.  While the Steelers D was really good, they fell off some when they lost Bush and fell off a cliff when they lost Dupree, giving up an average of 28+ a game over the last 6 games.  Not to mention, they played one of the easiest schedules.  

The niners were missing their slot corner K’Waun Williams and Emmanuel Mosley and decided they were just going to sit back and let Josh stand in the pocket all game and dice them up. They didn’t bring any pressure all game.  It was a terrible game plan by Saleh imo.
 

The Rams, we balled out!  Credit to our O

 

that said....I think our O can take them to the woodshed if they play a fair share of man.  If they play mostly zone and their blitz can get home, it could be a tough one. The Ravens cornerbacks are much better than most cB units. That’s the main reason why people think they match up well imo

 

 

We know the Ravens will blitz.  But you ask the key question: Will it get home? 

 

The Bills have mostly, but not consistently, handled the blitz well this year.  

 

Beside the obvious point of getting blocking assignments right, I think Josh will have to make good pre-snap reads.  If he's scanning, scanning, scanning  while being blitzed, very bad things may happen.  

 

I hope Daboll's done a great job of studying, understanding, and predicting the Ravens scheme.  If so - and if the wideouts are reasonably healthy - we can put up a lot of points despite the talent of the D.

 

How many times this year have we seen good pressure on Josh and good coverage in the secondary and yet the Bills still found the endzone?   Sometimes being good just isn't good enough against this excellent Bills passing attack.  When the Bills offense is clicking, it's hard to stop.    

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The Ravens have a better secondary than those other 3 teams in fairness (LA is close) but I am not worried about the Bills moving the ball and scoring and I agree if we get to 30 I am not sure Baltimore can keep up.

I really feel like Peters is going to bite on a fake and give up a huge completion....like a 40-50 yard TD.

[Cheektowaga Chad]

I look it like this, if the bills offense comes out and does what they have done all year the media and fans around the country will be in awe

2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I really feel like Peters is going to bite on a fake and give up a huge completion....like a 40-50 yard TD.

That and a pass interference call or 2 early.

 

I can't wait to see those corner backs upset

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

We know the Ravens will blitz.  But you ask the key question: Will it get home? 

 

The Bills have mostly, but not consistently, handled the blitz well this year.  

 

Beside the obvious point of getting blocking assignments right, I think Josh will have to make good pre-snap reads.  If he's scanning, scanning, scanning  while being blitzed, very bad things may happen.  

 

I hope Daboll's done a great job of studying, understanding, and predicting the Ravens scheme.  If so - and if the wideouts are reasonably healthy - we can put up a lot of points despite the talent of the D.

 

How many times this year have we seen good pressure on Josh and good coverage in the secondary and yet the Bills still found the endzone?   Sometimes being good just isn't good enough against this excellent Bills passing attack.  When the Bills offense is clicking, it's hard to stop.    

 

 

There is reason for concern against the Ravens - their corners will likely clutch/grab like KC does, and it seemed like our WRs had trouble with that early in the year (key: early in the year / we’re a very different team now)

 

That being said.. Indy got pressure with 4 and Allen extended, still making plays downfield.  If they blitz and don’t get home, Allen is going to make big play after big play, with his arm or legs, until they stop.  

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

We know the Ravens will blitz.  But you ask the key question: Will it get home? 

 

The Bills have mostly, but not consistently, handled the blitz well this year.  

 

Beside the obvious point of getting blocking assignments right, I think Josh will have to make good pre-snap reads.  If he's scanning, scanning, scanning  while being blitzed, very bad things may happen.  

 

I hope Daboll's done a great job of studying, understanding, and predicting the Ravens scheme.  If so - and if the wideouts are reasonably healthy - we can put up a lot of points despite the talent of the D.

 

How many times this year have we seen good pressure on Josh and good coverage in the secondary and yet the Bills still found the endzone?   Sometimes being good just isn't good enough against this excellent Bills passing attack.  When the Bills offense is clicking, it's hard to stop.    

 

 

Agree 💯 

 

that said, I am a bit worried about wind and weather conditions having an effect on passing, catching and possibly separation. I realize that the WRs “have an advantage” because they know what their route is, but they still depend on making sharp cuts on a dime in order to get open.  Josh drops back, throws to Cole, who slips and we have a pick 6, could be the difference in the game.   Really hoping that the weather doesn’t have an effect on the game

[Big Blitz]

48 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

A lot of people expect the Ravens to win on Saturday.  The narrative goes something like this:  The Ravens will run all over the Bills.  And the Bills offense will be slowed by the excellent Ravens D.

 

I'm not so sure.   I'm not underestimating the Ravens - they're a great football team.  But I do think some folks are underestimating the Bills.  

 

Here are the top defenses (yards allowed) in the NFL:

 

1.  LA Rams

2.  Washington

3.  Steelers

4.  NO

5.  SF

 

We've played three of the top five and beat all of them.   We averaged 386 yards and 31.7 points against these premier defensive squads.  Why would we expect the Ravens D to do any better?  The Bills are a passing team and - statistically speaking - the Raven's pass D (ranked #6) isn't as good as the pass defenses in LA, Pittsburg or San Fran.   We've obliterated defenses better than the one in Baltimore.  

So if we play to our norm against top tier defenses and hang 32 points on the Ravens, can their Greg Roman rushing attack put up 33?   

 

Maybe.   They did average 29 points per game during the regular season.  They only need to find 4 more - in the playoffs... in Buffalo... in the cold... against a fired up team. 

 

I'm just not counting on it.   

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'd add Miami twice to this list.  

 

And New England.  

 

Their pass defenses are better then 2 of those 3.  

 

 

 

All this being said the Ravens D is better then all those teams.  

 

It's fully healthy now and had time to adjust to some new guys.  

 

I feel like downplaying this is the same as not taking the Chiefs O as seriously because they "struggled" down the stretch.  

Edited January 15, 2021 by Big Blitz

[HOUSE]

I believe the way to beat the Ravens is mistake free football.   But, this could be a mistake on my part

[Chicken Boo]

The stats are nice, but you can throw ALL OF IT out the window!

 

The playoffs are a different animal.

[Rick 'r Mortis]

There are no elite defenses in today's NFL.