Behind Enemy Lines - "Keys to Beating the Bills" from Raven's Message Board

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I think one of the big problems with the Bills' option running game is that Josh almost never gives the ball up.  Not much of  a mystery who to defend for a Ravens' LB if you know Josh keeps it almost every time.  What needs to happen when we go with those run options is that Josh HAS to hand the ball off unless he has a huge opening to exploit.  I'm sure this tendency has been scouted by the Ravens and they are likely to ignore the RB.  That is something that we can exploit by giving the ball to Singletary or Williams.  

 

Well...you could say we exploited it rather thoroughly on the TD to Knox

[sven233]

I laid out my defensive game plan in another thread, but have not said much about our offense.  That's because I am generally confident that Allen, with what he's seen this year, won't see anything that he hasn't seen before.  There are only so many things you can do defensively and while Allen has improved in just about every area this year, I believe the area he has improved the most is mentally.  I think he sees the game completely now.  I think more often than not he know what the defense is trying to do on plays and has the answers as to how to beat them.  That doesn't mean he wins very rep or every series, but I think Allen's has come so far on the mental side of the game this year that he will end up winning more reps than he loses during the game.

 

That brings me to the offensive game plan itself.  While I think we will keep on doing what has worked for us more often than not, there are some things I would like to see as a change-up.  I'm not saying we are going to see this tomorrow, but I would love to see the Bills utilize some more 5 WR sets.  Whether they just use McKenzie or if they think Stills can handle a few packages by now, I would love to see some 5 WR looks. 

 

We have used 4 WRs as much as any team in the league this year, but have only used 5 WR sets on like 4 or 5 plays all year.  You want to throw in a wrinkle, this week may be a good week to do it.  You want to take away some of that pass rush?  Spread the field and make them cover 5 WRs.  They have a good group of CBs, but they are not 5 deep.  What would happen if they have to take some of their studs off the field that they planned on using because they have to put another CB or 2 out there?  I'd take their 5th best CB on the field rather than a top DL or LB.  Our 5th WR, whoever they would use would definitely be better than their 5th DB. 

 

I am a firm believer in dictating how the game is going to go and doing something that nobody else can do.  We have an embarrassment of riches at WR and a QB that loves to throw it to them.  The beautiful thing is that we can do this without sacrificing the threat to run the ball.  Allen may be the QB, but he is also our biggest running threat.  If you are using a 5 WR design, you will be forcing the defense to cover all of them.  The second that they make a mistake and forget about Allen, he can take off for chunks of yardage.  You want to spy him?  Fine.......Who is covering the 5th WR?

 

Like I said, this isn't a personnel grouping that we have utilized much all year.  It's only been out there a few times.  And while I think we will stick to what has been working, this is just something I would do just to take advantage of where we are the deepest and would in turn force the defense into playing a way they probably haven't had to all year.  And that is what the Playoffs are about....match ups and taking away what teams do well.  I think using a 5 WR package on several snaps may be able to accomplish just that since we have only shown in 4 or 5 times all year.  No tape on it and how we would use it.  Just a thought.

Edited January 16, 2021 by sven233

[MJS]

3 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

This is exactly the point.  Last year the Raven's weren't punched in the face from week 5 on and once they were they lost.

 

This year they lost 3 in a row (one without Lamar) to NE, Balt & Pitt and then cruised 4 of the last 5, with Cleveland lighting them up, but a win none the less.  They had 2 quality victories all season Cleveland & Indy & played quality offenses vs. Houston, Cleveland, Titans, Indy & KC.  Not a tough schedule when you include the NFC East.

 

I like it that they are so high on themselves, which as stated so was Buffalo as they weren't challenged from the bye week on (except for Pittsburgh for 28 minutes).

I saw something on reddit that showed that the Ravens were 28th in strength of schedule (I think based on ELO) and the Bills were 3rd.

 

The Ravens had it pretty easy. BUT, they had some nice wins and finished out the year strong. You don't choose who you play.

 

I really could see anything happen in this game. I could see either team blowing the other out, I could see a tight, low scoring game, or I could see a shoot out.

[Olliemets]

6 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I'm loving the pregame analysis narrative for this week's game. Wrong team is favored, the 3rd place 11-5 team is playing better than the 1st place 13-3 team. The Baltimore running game is impossible to slow down because they're awesome and our defense has fallen way off by just barely beating the Colts. Baltimore D may even be better than their offense and our running game is so weak it's no worry what so ever. Only thing we have going is Josh Allen, and I think there are still those out there who think he'll fold under pressure. Oh and did I mention the Ravens DBs should be able to handle our receivers in 0-coverage. Jeez we should be so scared that we stay home and forfeit.

 

I feel from the all the talk radio callers today and most media "experts" like we are a home dog.

 

Every self professed "expert" basing everything on last week and our weakness against the run. They dont watch the team every week like we do.

While it could go either way I think Bills we be much better than last week. Don't turn the ball over. Limit mistakes. Hope Dabol has a better game plan.

 

Bring it on

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

48 minutes ago, MJS said:

I saw something on reddit that showed that the Ravens were 28th in strength of schedule (I think based on ELO) and the Bills were 3rd.

 

The Ravens had it pretty easy. BUT, they had some nice wins and finished out the year strong. You don't choose who you play.

 

I really could see anything happen in this game. I could see either team blowing the other out, I could see a tight, low scoring game, or I could see a shoot out.

That would be a shock....  Outside the three game stretch Titans, Chiefs & Jets (can add them playing NE's game their first meeting), 26 vs. Pitt was their lowest output....  

[Dukestreetking]

3 hours ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

Crazy to think singletary or yeldon will have a big game receiving?

 

No, and good point

 

No McMurphy, Tabes, Chief, or even Nurse Ratched in the game script, and Kesey ain't writing it.

 

As others up-thread allude, screens/short crossers/etc may play very well as run game continuum.

 

One other very interesting, 3D Dabol-chess wrinkle...think it was 9er game but I'd have to double check.

 

Whatever, I noticed this b/c of how odd it was:

 

Both in jet sweep motion, and in RB checkdown routes, JA was intentionally looking at them as first reads, then going deep middle. I've no doubt this was to get the action on tape for games like...tomorrow.

 

Rationale: suck LBs/NB short and wide to open QB delay-draw lanes or prior mentioned deep throws b/n the hashes.

[Inigo Montoya]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well...you could say we exploited it rather thoroughly on the TD to Knox

 

LOL!  I'm still not sure if that was a designed call or just Josh being Josh.   I wouldn't mind seeing more of that play as long as it works the same way.  🙃

[finn]

What he said about making Diggs pay for every catch reminds me of the first Super Bowl, where the Giants hit Reed hard every he caught the ball on crossing routes. Sure enough, he started short-arming the ball and lost effectiveness. Diggs is a far better receiver, though, and he runs more routes, or so it seems to me. 

[DCbillsfan]

2 hours ago, sven233 said:

 

 

We have used 4 WRs as much as any team in the league this year, but have only used 5 WR sets on like 4 or 5 plays all year.  You want to throw in a wrinkle, this week may be a good week to do it.  You want to take away some of that pass rush?  Spread the field and make them cover 5 WRs.  They have a good group of CBs, but they are not 5 deep.  What would happen if they have to take some of their studs off the field that they planned on using because they have to put another CB or 2 out there?  I's take their 5th best CB on the field rather than a top DL or LB.  Our 5th WR, whoever they would use would definitely be better than their 5th DB. 

 

I think this is how we beat the Ravens.  I just watched week 8 Ravens Steelers.  Steelers did 4WR and TE sets in 2nd half.  Ravens could not stop them.  Steelers won 28 - 24.  Steelers split out the TE to give it a 5 WR look.

Edited January 15, 2021 by DCbillsfan

[HOUSE]

The last time I visited that board, the Ravens would crush the Bills with Joe Flacco, Aww seems like yesterday

[Saxum]

9 hours ago, NewEra said:

I had to get my glasses for my reading glasses to read this

 

I am OldEra with thick glasses.  I just increased zoom level.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

9 hours ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

Saw this post on the Raven's message board regarding scouting report of the Bills from Raven's fan perspective. Thought it was interesting and worth sharing.  I could nitpick a couple things but overall his analysis is tough to disagree with.   He made some great points, but hopefully JA transcends all and puts the Bills on his back again this week!

 

"With Moss out the bad running game of the Bills is really bad. Singletary is really only effective when there are holes so job one is to plug those holes up. The Ravens have been very good at doing that this year.  

The biggest running threat is going to Josh Allen who is very dangerous especially in the red zone. Allen is 3rd on the team in rushing yards and has 8 rushing TDs. Without that other big rushing threat I would use a similar plan that we used against the Titans only keying on Allen as the rusher instead of Henry. This is how other teams have attacked Lamar this year and it works until Gus or Dobbins start going up the middle and blowing up those guys waiting on the edge. Singletary isn't Dobbins or Gus. They will be able to limit those bigs runs by Allen.

The Bills are going to be respond by throwing the ball. Allen has 7 games this year with 40+ passing attempts. In 2019 he had just 1. Allen is very comfortable passing and will start throwing down field. The Ravens have the DBs to handle even when blitzing. The Bills in general use a layered system of Diggs and Brown deeper, Davis in the middle depth, Beasley and Knox underneath. Everyone of them can catch and they use the whole width of the field. I think we all saw Allen fit perfect balls on the sideline to Davis at the end of half last week. It was textbook.  

Don't focus on pushing Allen into tough throws. Instead focus on making the receivers make tough catches. Play tight and hit hard. Diggs had the best season in the league this side of Devante Adams. He's going to make some catches. Make him pay on every single one. 8 catches for under 80 yards would be a big win against Diggs.

On the other side of the ball the Ravens just need to continue to do what they do. The Bills allowed 21 rushing touchdowns this year which is 27th in the NFL this year. They are 26th in yards allowed per attempt. Pound the ball in the red zone. They are middle of the road against the pass and rank 9th in both TDs and yards be attempt and 7th in getting interceptions. Running the ball just makes a ton of sense.

Both the Ravens and Bills are +4 in turnover margin so both understand the importance of turnovers. Bass has been a really good Kicker in the clutch but no one is on the level of Justin Tucker. The Bills punter has a great leg. Kicking and punting will be about mistakes since both teams are really among the NFL elite in those areas.

It should be a good game but I really like this matchup for the Ravens. As good as the Bills have been I really see this as favorable for the Ravens."

https://forum.russellstreetreport.com/showthread.php?207004-Keys-to-beating-the-Bills&s=5e4430fa0dd03ad736b8d386a8da5aba

Solid analysis. I like our guys better. Let’s go

[Dukestreetking]

13 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Solid analysis. I like our guys better. Let’s go

 Brevity is the soul of wit. 

[die hard bills fan]

11 hours ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

Saw this post on the Raven's message board regarding scouting report of the Bills from Raven's fan perspective. Thought it was interesting and worth sharing.  I could nitpick a couple things but overall his analysis is tough to disagree with.   He made some great points, but hopefully JA transcends all and puts the Bills on his back again this week!

 

"With Moss out the bad running game of the Bills is really bad. Singletary is really only effective when there are holes so job one is to plug those holes up. The Ravens have been very good at doing that this year.  

The biggest running threat is going to Josh Allen who is very dangerous especially in the red zone. Allen is 3rd on the team in rushing yards and has 8 rushing TDs. Without that other big rushing threat I would use a similar plan that we used against the Titans only keying on Allen as the rusher instead of Henry. This is how other teams have attacked Lamar this year and it works until Gus or Dobbins start going up the middle and blowing up those guys waiting on the edge. Singletary isn't Dobbins or Gus. They will be able to limit those bigs runs by Allen.

The Bills are going to be respond by throwing the ball. Allen has 7 games this year with 40+ passing attempts. In 2019 he had just 1. Allen is very comfortable passing and will start throwing down field. The Ravens have the DBs to handle even when blitzing. The Bills in general use a layered system of Diggs and Brown deeper, Davis in the middle depth, Beasley and Knox underneath. Everyone of them can catch and they use the whole width of the field. I think we all saw Allen fit perfect balls on the sideline to Davis at the end of half last week. It was textbook.  

Don't focus on pushing Allen into tough throws. Instead focus on making the receivers make tough catches. Play tight and hit hard. Diggs had the best season in the league this side of Devante Adams. He's going to make some catches. Make him pay on every single one. 8 catches for under 80 yards would be a big win against Diggs.

On the other side of the ball the Ravens just need to continue to do what they do. The Bills allowed 21 rushing touchdowns this year which is 27th in the NFL this year. They are 26th in yards allowed per attempt. Pound the ball in the red zone. They are middle of the road against the pass and rank 9th in both TDs and yards be attempt and 7th in getting interceptions. Running the ball just makes a ton of sense.

Both the Ravens and Bills are +4 in turnover margin so both understand the importance of turnovers. Bass has been a really good Kicker in the clutch but no one is on the level of Justin Tucker. The Bills punter has a great leg. Kicking and punting will be about mistakes since both teams are really among the NFL elite in those areas.

It should be a good game but I really like this matchup for the Ravens. BILLS As good as the Ravens have been I really see this as favorable for the BILLS"

https://forum.russellstreetreport.com/showthread.php?207004-Keys-to-beating-the-Bills&s=5e4430fa0dd03ad736b8d386a8da5aba

The bottom line. 

[Cheektowaga Chad]

3 hours ago, Dukestreetking said:

 

No, and good point

 

No McMurphy, Tabes, Chief, or even Nurse Ratched in the game script, and Kesey ain't writing it.

 

As others up-thread allude, screens/short crossers/etc may play very well as run game continuum.

 

One other very interesting, 3D Dabol-chess wrinkle...think it was 9er game but I'd have to double check.

 

Whatever, I noticed this b/c of how odd it was:

 

Both in jet sweep motion, and in RB checkdown routes, JA was intentionally looking at them as first reads, then going deep middle. I've no doubt this was to get the action on tape for games like...tomorrow.

 

Rationale: suck LBs/NB short and wide to open QB delay-draw lanes or prior mentioned deep throws b/n the hashes.

Whoa you just threw a one flew over the cuckoo's nest reference

[Dukestreetking]

3 hours ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

Whoa you just threw a one flew over the cuckoo's nest reference

Yeah, I throw in a semi-obtuse reference every now and then...just to see if anyone picks it up (or flames me for being a pain in the a**).

 

So, CC: well done to you good sir.

[BuffaloBill]

The Ravens are a tough draw for the Bills. 

[Billsfan1972]

The Ravens played the following ranked Offenses this Year

 

1. KC - Lit them up

3. Tennessee - Certainly scored their first meeting and then ran Henry into a brick wall last week

10. Indy - Held them in check

13. Houston - 275 passing Watson

14. Dallas (no Dak) - Dalton 277

16. Cleveland x2 - Held them opening day, 355 & 42 points

24. Philly - 177

25. Pitt - Good first game, 277 passing second game

29. Cin x 2 (Burrow out the second game) - Beat them up twice

30. Wash - Hasking threw for 314

31. NYG - Moved the ball but Jones immobile

 

Yep their D should look good....

Edited January 16, 2021 by Billsfan1972

[CSBill]

21 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Good stuff, although I'll focus on one area.

 

The 2020 Bills offensive line has been so much improved this year over last season. RT Williams has been a god send. Big Jon playing well and that line is much better with him in there. The entire line played so well all season and against the Colts whos strength is their D line. Buffalo held their best player DeForest Buckner to two tackles and no sacks. 

 

Against the Steelers the Bills made some adjustments and took Cameron Hayward out of the mix, who also had only two tackles and no sacks. The Steelers have the #3 defense overall and a leading pass rusher in TJ Watt, 15 sacks. The Bills only allowed one sack in that week 14 game by Tyson Alualu. 

 

If we look back at the 2019 Ravens-Bills game, the Ravens went crazy blitzing Allen all game. The only response the Bills had was to attempt some deep throws to make them back off the blitzing. When those throws failed to work the Ravens stepped up their 50% of the time blitzing to 65%.

 

How the Buffalo Bills handle the Ravens blitzing will be a big factor in this game IMO. If they can handle the Ravens like they handled the Steelers and Colts.

 

The Bills just have so many weapons, Diggs simply can't be covered or stopped from what I've seen. Brown, Beasley, Davis, McKenzie, Singletary, Knox. If that line gives Josh Allen the time he needs...

 

Look who the Ravens have played since week 13 loss to Pittsburgh, 6-10 Dallas, 11-5 Cleveland, 1-15 Jacksonville, 6-10 NY Giants, 4-11 Cincinnati. Yes, they beat 11-5 Titans who had the 28th defense in yards given up. 

 

Last week the Bills faltered a bit on offense and defense, didn't play their best and yet managed to win. If the Bills team, offense plays their best, like they did against the Patriots, Dolphins they should do well.  

 

 

 

I re-watched the 2019 game on the NFL Network the other day. Two observations about the line play as compared to this year: (1) We do have three returning starters, Feliciano, Dawkins, and Morse .... Williams has been a huge upgrade and Ike B. has improved to where I say he is better over-all than Spain was. (2) Ford was a liability last year. It didn't help they blitzed so much. But Williams has been such an improvement at RT. Cody is better suite for a guard position. .... The line is much improved.

[The Senator]

We’re winning - we’re better