Behind Enemy Lines - "Keys to Beating the Bills" from Raven's Message Board

[bigK14094]

Well, yes, Moss is out, but the Bills have backup running backs.  If its Yeldon...which is my guess....Daboll will game plan to the strengths of the addition to the roster.  That is Yeldon is a very good receivingback, better than Moss or Singletary.  I am guessing we will see some of that....  If they bring up the impressive rookie...he showed well as a power back...and that is a move the Bills could use.....we will see that at times.  But, I am guessing a rookie doesn't get a shot in the playoffs at this point.  Point is Daboll will make the game plan fit the personnel.   No Moss will change the  calculus......

[JohnNord]

For what it’s worth, I find Joe Buscaglia and Matthew Fairburn to be the most tuned in beat reporters for the Bills.  Both picked the Bills in a close game.  I think Joe B was inaccurate in only one game this year

[Crow-Magnon]

For good or ill, I think a lot of fans (not just Ravens fans) expected two things last week.  They expected Henry to go well over 100 yards against the Ravens playing on the road, and they expected Buffalo to blow out the Colts at home. Neither happened. Henry was absolutely stymied and the Colts made it a game and barring stupid calls from the HC, should have won. 
 

Does any of that matter tomorrow? I think not. This is the playoffs. I have an old sweatshirt from the Ravens AFCC game in 2000. Older posters may remember the NFL’s catch phrase that year was “Show Me Something”. In the post-season it became “Show Me Something More”. That’s the playoffs. There’s likely a player that no one is expecting to contribute that much (on either team) that comes up big. IMO, once you get to the divisional round of the post-season, regular season records mean squat. Both the Bills and Ravens are very good football teams. I will not be surprised in the least if the Bills or the Ravens walk off with the W and a trip to the AFCC. They are both capable of winning it all. 
 

It’s The PLAYOFFS!!!! 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I'm loving the pregame analysis narrative for this week's game. Wrong team is favored, the 3rd place 11-5 team is playing better than the 1st place 13-3 team. The Baltimore running game is impossible to slow down because they're awesome and our defense has fallen way off by just barely beating the Colts. Baltimore D may even be better than their offense and our running game is so weak it's no worry what so ever. Only thing we have going is Josh Allen, and I think there are still those out there who think he'll fold under pressure. Oh and did I mention the Ravens DBs should be able to handle our receivers in 0-coverage. Jeez we should be so scared that we stay home and forfeit.

[JerseyBills]

Are defense is completely different than it was from the 1st half of the year than it's playing now but otherwise a good breakdown.  I don't think it's as favorable a matchup as he thinks , going to be a dog fight

[Brit]

17 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Much better than other message boards.

The Jets fans sound like they're all drunk....they might be.

Can you really blame them?

[Big Turk]

37 minutes ago, Mynamemike said:

I feel very similar about this game as i did to last weeks game.  It's going to be an absolute dog fight.   If our defense can keep them to 24 points or less we have a very strong chance of winning.   I think the loss of Moss is going to hurt more  than people think but I feel pretty confident in TJ Yeldon being serviceable.  Motor needs to have a strong game when he gets his touches to keep the defense honest.  I can't wait until tomorrow!!!

 

I like the way we match up. Their corners are good but so were Miami's. Allen will torch man coverage if that is what they think is going to work.

[H2o]

9 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

Turnovers, stupid mistakes, special teams, and penalties are going to deceide this game. I know thats cliche and boring.

 

As ive said, especially interested in how this crew will ref PI becuase the Ravens are grabby. I know Tasker agrees with me here. This could set the tone....

 

With passing being so important to the Bills Offense, my guess is they will call it more.

Or not because you know how these situations play out from time to time and at this point Jackson is more of a "league darling"

[Ramza86]

its a good post by him. 

 

As long as we dont get into that horrid field position and ToP in the first half like last week I think the Bills will be able to keep the Ravens scoring limited. 

 

Like....its really hard to win games when youre starting inside your own 20 an entire half and the opposing team starts at their own 40. Crazy how the Colts did what they wanted to do and it still wasnt enough to contain Allen and the WRs.

[Sundancer]

31 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

Pretty good analysis, not gonna lie.

I don't watch enough of the Ravens to really breakdown many weaknesses, I'm just hoping we can shore up our own.

But did Star pick the worst season to sit out 😂 I'm still annoyed how far our run defense has dropped off without him helping plug up the middle. Turns out he was probably worth the money after all lol

It was not just Star. Star, Shaq, and Phillips. Really tough to lose 3 key lineman. 

[BringBackFlutie]

I continue to be confused by this idea that the Ravens will win because Buffalo's run D was bottom of the league earlier this year, and, somehow, man-to-man defense is suddenly not a mismatch against the best passing game vs man-to-man in the league.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

Saw this post on the Raven's message board regarding scouting report of the Bills from Raven's fan perspective. Thought it was interesting and worth sharing.  I could nitpick a couple things but overall his analysis is tough to disagree with.   He made some great points, but hopefully JA transcends all and puts the Bills on his back again this week!

 

"With Moss out the bad running game of the Bills is really bad. Singletary is really only effective when there are holes so job one is to plug those holes up. The Ravens have been very good at doing that this year.  

The biggest running threat is going to Josh Allen who is very dangerous especially in the red zone. Allen is 3rd on the team in rushing yards and has 8 rushing TDs. Without that other big rushing threat I would use a similar plan that we used against the Titans only keying on Allen as the rusher instead of Henry. This is how other teams have attacked Lamar this year and it works until Gus or Dobbins start going up the middle and blowing up those guys waiting on the edge. Singletary isn't Dobbins or Gus. They will be able to limit those bigs runs by Allen.

The Bills are going to be respond by throwing the ball. Allen has 7 games this year with 40+ passing attempts. In 2019 he had just 1. Allen is very comfortable passing and will start throwing down field. The Ravens have the DBs to handle even when blitzing. The Bills in general use a layered system of Diggs and Brown deeper, Davis in the middle depth, Beasley and Knox underneath. Everyone of them can catch and they use the whole width of the field. I think we all saw Allen fit perfect balls on the sideline to Davis at the end of half last week. It was textbook.  

Don't focus on pushing Allen into tough throws. Instead focus on making the receivers make tough catches. Play tight and hit hard. Diggs had the best season in the league this side of Devante Adams. He's going to make some catches. Make him pay on every single one. 8 catches for under 80 yards would be a big win against Diggs.

On the other side of the ball the Ravens just need to continue to do what they do. The Bills allowed 21 rushing touchdowns this year which is 27th in the NFL this year. They are 26th in yards allowed per attempt. Pound the ball in the red zone. They are middle of the road against the pass and rank 9th in both TDs and yards be attempt and 7th in getting interceptions. Running the ball just makes a ton of sense.

Both the Ravens and Bills are +4 in turnover margin so both understand the importance of turnovers. Bass has been a really good Kicker in the clutch but no one is on the level of Justin Tucker. The Bills punter has a great leg. Kicking and punting will be about mistakes since both teams are really among the NFL elite in those areas.

It should be a good game but I really like this matchup for the Ravens. As good as the Bills have been I really see this as favorable for the Ravens."

https://forum.russellstreetreport.com/showthread.php?207004-Keys-to-beating-the-Bills&s=5e4430fa0dd03ad736b8d386a8da5aba

 

I don't know what you call "nitpicking". 

 

First, he writes as though the Bills will "respond" to stopping the run by throwing the ball.  With two exceptions, we don't respond, we just come out throwing. 

 

Second, Moss is not a power runner like Henry either (although he has more ability to just plow ahead for 3 yards).  So I'm not sure missing Moss makes such a huge difference, though I wish we had him.  The key missing point that many football-knowledgeable people have made is that the short passing game and screen game are an extension of the run game to the edges, the Bills do that well at times - and the need to keep that in check can detract from being able to pressure the QB.  How are the Ravens at stopping that?

 

This part is incorrect, especially when we are struggling against pressure as we did at Pittsburgh and with physical, handsy corners: The Bills in general use a layered system of Diggs and Brown deeper, Davis in the middle depth, Beasley and Knox underneath. We do like to use layers, but you simply can't key on the personnel and decide who's going where.  You might see Singletary running a "go" route and Diggs short.  Davis deep has been pretty common.  Once he's got the first down, Diggs will try to protect himself and the ball and go down, so watch out for the "PF" flag if you don't curtail the "make him pay on every single one" mindset.   Brown and Beasley can be taken away by physical play and bracketing, that part is true.  Davis and Diggs are different.  Knox is a work in progress.

You don't push Allen into tough throws.  He pushes himself into tough throws.  He won't "start throwing downfield" after something else is stymied, Allen's default condition is trying to throw downfield.  A key to the Bills success will be whether he stops, and recognizes and takes the short, chain-moving throws when they're there instead.  Also if Allen can move and extend plays, it's hard to keep those downfield throws tough.  Sooner or later someone gets open.

 

I'm sure the DBs will be trying to play tight.  A key factor in the game is how much DPI and DH the refs will allow.  Brown and Beasley needed sexual assault kits after last year's game.  Diggs is a different creature.   Within 5 yards, he just might assault you back.  Knox, for as big and strong as he is, has not been very physical overall but has started to show glimpses from time to time. 

 

Last year our pass protection sucked.  Part of that was inexperience on Allen's part.  Part of that was Daboll's use of the 1-1 set with Motor and Knox that had worked best for our offense to that date.  Between them all (Allen, the OL, the rookies) the pass protection was SNAFU'd most of the game.  This year, both Motor and Knox have improved in pass protection but Daboll has also been more flexible about using other personnel packages.

 

What's missing from the assessment of the Bills on D is that they can typically stop one thing.  So if they focus on taking away or limiting the run, will the Ravens be able to pass effectively?  It's not enough to talk about weakness defending TE.  Will Roman be able to design, and will Jackson be able to exploit, a passing attack that creates confusion in our zone coverage?  Will we play zone - or will we man up, which we rarely do, and use the extra bodies to stifle the run?

 

Anyway, nits or not, you be the judge.

 

PS I saw someone somewhere comment on how few rushing yards Allen had last year vs the Ravens.  On one of the first series, Allen had his ankle stepped on and went down, and went out hobbling on 3rd down.  He was seen getting a heavy tape job on the sideline during that Ravens possession, and Barkley was helmet on during and checking on Allen as he came off the next few series.  Allen finished the game but he clearly had sprained or strained his ankle.  So I think the Poe-birds get all the credit in the world for bringing the confusing pressure and giving us fits with protection last year, but not necessarily for limiting Allen as a runner; he was pretty limited on his own.

 

 

 

 

 

[Freak-O]

The Bills' defensive stats for the season are a bit deceiving I feel, since the defense was really bad the first half, but quite alright the second half. 

[Freddie's Dead]

The Bills have beaten that game plan since the Hail Murray.  Not worried about the Nevermores at all.

[maryland-bills-fan]

Baltimore has played a weak schedule recently.  That will tell.  Our offense will come out with some new wrinkles and tricky plans to unsettle them and cause hesitation. They have not had to respond to such this year.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

36 minutes ago, Crow-Magnon said:

For good or ill, I think a lot of fans (not just Ravens fans) expected two things last week.  They expected Henry to go well over 100 yards against the Ravens playing on the road, and they expected Buffalo to blow out the Colts at home. Neither happened. Henry was absolutely stymied and the Colts made it a game and barring stupid calls from the HC, should have won. 

 

Henry was absolutely stymied.  You guys did a brilliant job there.  I also thought Lamar made a couple of beautiful throws he's not supposed to be able to make in the popular narrative.  I hope we're on the watch for that. 

 

I don't think the Bills or the knowledgeable fans expected us to blow out the Colts.  They are ranked better than us defensively and their offense and special teams are well coached and solid.  Buffalo knows, no one better, what Frank Reich is as a football mind and a competitor.

 

You really can't lay the Colts loss down to "stupid calls from the HC".  I assume you're talking about the decision to go for the TD on 4th down.    But if you change one play, you change the whole game.  If Roberts keeps his butt in the endzone so we start from the 25 or the ref calls that clear facemask so we start from the 12 or more after the first Indy TD instead of hugging our own EZ, maybe we go right down and score. 

 

If Tannehill doesn't throw an idiotic pick from his own 38 yd line with plenty of time left and driving, maybe the game ties or you lose.  See how this works?  Don't do that "if not for one play" BS to us.  We won.  Indy lost.  You won.  Tenn lost. 

 

Most football games between well matched teams, come down to a handful of plays on both sides, and at the end of the game, which teams make more of them.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

 

[Yav]

I think we might see more 3 LB sets and less nickel this week. 

[BullBuchanan]

50 minutes ago, NewEra said:

That’s it!!  Minus all the grey hair

Grey hair removed, got it.

 

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

 

It should be a good game but I really like this matchup for the Ravens. As good as the Bills have been I really see this as favorable for the Ravens."

https://forum.russellstreetreport.com/showthread.php?207004-Keys-to-beating-the-Bills&s=5e4430fa0dd03ad736b8d386a8da5aba

Funny.  I read that and conclude that the match ups favor the Bills.

[Livinginthepast]

There are two keys to this game that are intangibles as far as I'm concerned.

 

1. How is our defense going to react to a less than stellar performance last week against the Colts? The national media has been going on and on about this over the past week. Perhaps our players dont listen and dont care about the criticism but maybe (hopefully) the disrespect motivates them to play better and they rise to the occasion.

 

2. How is Motor going to react to all the doom and gloom on the Moss injury and the assumption that we have completely lost our running game? Just like the defense in the last point, is the disrespect  going to motivate him to perform?

 

Both areas are the big X factors in this game.