Key to beating the Ravens- beating the blitz

[Boxcar]

1 hour ago, BuffaloFan68 said:

Everyone keeps talking about stopping Lamar but we can't forget that the Ravens are loaded at RB and number 1 in the NFL in rushing.  My prediction is that we need to keep their TDs to a minimum and force them into FGs.  I predict that Josh will have 4 TDs plus Bass with mulitple FGs.  We didn't do so good with field position last week but I feel we will win the field position this week.  My prediction is that we will put up 40+ points and keep them to around 28 - 32 points.  

Then the Browns to upset KC for the AFC championship to go through Buffalo!

Lets Go Buffalo!!!!!

I honestly think the Bills will have the most trouble with Gus Edwards

[NewEra]

12 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

It goes without saying that JA needs to play well to win this game.:

 

However he can still play well and they can lose..30 is not necessarily a winning score..

 

If the D has not improved from last week they lose..

 

 

Unless the ravens blitz a lot and Allen torches them for 5+TDs.  

[Aussie Joe]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Unless the ravens blitz a lot and Allen torches them for 5+TDs.  

They won’t have to blitz if their O is strolling down the field every drive 

[WideNine]

This to me is the true wild card of the game - and sorry for the length... get like this when hyped up for a Bills game.

 

Allen has faced 3 defenses that are statistically better than the Ravens this year in regards to avg yds/game in the Rams, Steelers, and the 49ers. The Colts are ranked just behind the Ravens and came on their last few games. That was a very good 11-win wild-card team - the AFC has talented, competitive teams.

 

Allen did get frustrated and tried to do too much on one play with Indy (the fumble), BUT Allen is not the same QB he was when he faced the Ravens last year. I think he has faced more blitzes than any other QB in the league this season and the reason is that defenses are desperate to take away his time and get in his head. His arm and talent is just that scary. They know that sitting back he will pick them apart. That, and he has a lot more weapons that he can leverage to beat teams and coverages. 

 

The Ravens have not faced Allen 2.0 with all these weapons and I think that is an advantage going in. Folks can talk all they want about a player improving, but last impressions are more lasting. Many teams we faced this year their defenses went in with respectful words but seemed very confident they could bottle up Allen and a bit skeptical that he was that good this year. They came away with a much different take - thinking of recent interviews with 49er defensive players.

For reference: https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2021/01/bills-josh-allen-reminds-richard-sherman-of-aaron-rodgers.html

 

The flip side you have to consider is that the same could be said of the Bills who had success against Lamar, but may find that he will opt to hit more of his outlet receivers, RBs in the flat, TE's, and Brown than he did last year.

 

So, I think the keys for our Bills are:

1. Allen does not let them disrupt his mental timing early (Indy sent a lot of blitz pressure packages early to try to "speed-up" Allen's mental clock and get him to bail early on the pocket. They also wanted to have him press more and make early mistakes).
2. Remembering that throwing the ball away beats taking a sack deep or turning it over early in the game and gives Daboll and the coaches some idea early of how the Ravens are attacking our offense so they can counter. Allen needs to keep his cool and trust his pocket as long as he can, and be willing to chuck it into the stands if needed.
3. Limit turnovers - obvious one. 
4. Field position - Need to pin the Ravens deep and make them work the length of the field - this is because I just cannot help but wonder what Bills defense shows up and more field just helps our D either make a play or hope that the Ravens misfire on execution. 
5. Hold blocks long enough on some of their blitzes to hit some deeper shots off their cover-0 looks to burn their blitz - if Allen, Brown, and Diggs can make them think twice about sending the house we may be able to force them into more predictable defensive postures. If they back off of press defense because of Diggs and Smoke's speed then hit the come-back routes.
6. Allen leverages quick outlet options behind blitzing players - Knox, or releasing RB's to extend drives.
7. They will not respect our runs, but if we can key off when they drop into coverage and abandon the box we need to be able to burn that with just enough runs to leverage play action and slow the rush.

 

Defense - don't play on your heels, get some push on their line to disrupt blocking/timing, wrap-up and tackle to stop the run and limit RAC. Pass defense focused on taking away Lamar's favorite targets and accept that we are going to give up some odd passes to other receivers with our focus on stopping the run and taking Lamar out of his passing comfort zone is key.

 

A tough match-up, but competitors want to go against those that push them to their limits. Iron sharpens iron - Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by WideNine

[PaattMaann]

1 minute ago, WideNine said:

This to me is the true wild card of the game.

 

Allen has faced 3 defenses that are statistically better than the Ravens this year in regards to avg yds/game in the Rams, Steelers, and the 49ers. The Colts are ranked just behind the Ravens and came on their last few games. That was a very good 11-win wild-card team - the AFC has talented, competitive teams.

 

Allen did get frustrated and tried to do too much on one play with Indy (the fumble), BUT Allen is not the same QB he was when he faced the Ravens last year. I think he has faced more blitzes than any other QB in the league this season and the reason is that defenses are desperate to take away his time and get in his head. His arm and talent is just that scary. They know that sitting back he will pick them apart. That, and he has a lot more weapons that he can leverage to beat teams and coverages. 

 

The Ravens have not faced Allen 2.0 with all these weapons and I think that is an advantage going in. Folks can talk all they want about a player improving, but last impressions are more lasting. Many teams we faced this year their defenses went in with respectful words but seemed very confident they could bottle up Allen and a bit skeptical that he was that good this year. They came away with a much different take - thinking of recent interviews with 49er defensive players.

For reference: https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2021/01/bills-josh-allen-reminds-richard-sherman-of-aaron-rodgers.html

 

The flip side you have to consider is that the same could be said of the Bills who had success against Lamar, but may find that he will opt to hit more of his outlet receivers, RBs in the flat, TE's, and Brown than he did last year.

 

So, I think the keys for our Bills are:

1. Allen does not let them disrupt his mental timing early (Indy sent a lot of blitz pressure packages early to try to "speed-up" Allen's mental clock and get him to bail early on the pocket. They also wanted to have him press more and make early mistakes).
2. Remembering that throwing the ball away beats taking a sack deep or turning it over early in the game and gives Daboll and the coaches some idea early of how the Ravens are attacking our offense so they can counter. Allen needs to keep his cool and trust his pocket as long as he can, and be willing to chuck it into the stands if needed.
3. Limit turnovers - obvious one. 
4. Field position - Need to pin the Ravens deep and make them work the length of the field - this is because I just cannot help but wonder what Bills defense shows up and more field just helps our D either make a play or hope that the Ravens misfire on execution. 
5. Hold blocks long enough on some of their blitzes to hit some deeper shots off their cover-0 looks to burn their blitz - if Allen, Brown, and Diggs can make them think twice about sending the house we may be able to force them into more predictable defensive postures.
6. Allen leverages quick outlet options behind blitzing players - Knox, or releasing RB's to extend drives.
7. They will not respect our runs, but if we can key off when they drop into coverage and abandon the box we need to be able to burn that with just enough runs to leverage play action and slow the rush.

 

Defense - don't play on your heels, get some push on their line to disrupt blocking/timing, wrap-up and tackle to stop the run and limit RAC. Pass defense focused on taking away Lamar's favorite targets and accept that we are going to give up some odd passes to other receivers with our focus on stopping the run and taking Lamar out of his passing comfort zone is key.

 

A tough match-up, but competitors want to go against those that push them to their limits. Iron sharpens iron - Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There is evidence to say its not the same Allen that the Ravens will be facing.

 

What is the evidence to support Lamar would do what you are suggesting? 

[WideNine]

1 minute ago, PaattMaann said:

 

There is evidence to say its not the same Allen that the Ravens will be facing.

 

What is the evidence to support Lamar would do what you are suggesting? 

 

Because he has improved at hitting more of his receiving options this year while still being so much of a running threat that teams purposefully rob the secondary to stop it.

 

It is a mistake to think that only Allen is progressing and that other QB's like Lamar and Mayfield are just spinning their wheels. I do think that it is fair and accurate to say that Allen has made the biggest leap as an NFL passer and is realizing more of his god-given talents.

 

 

 

[PaattMaann]

3 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Because he has improved at hitting more of his receiving options this year while still being so much of a running threat that teams purposefully rob the secondary to stop it.

 

It is a mistake to think that only Allen is progressing and that other QB's like Lamar and Mayfield are just spinning their wheels. I do think that it is fair and accurate to say that Allen has made the biggest leap as an NFL passer and is realizing more of his god-given talents.

 

 

 

 

The numbers dont support Lamar has progressed as a passer this year. 

[PrimeTime101]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Stopping the Ravens run game will obviously be crucial in coming away with a win, but I that as secondary. 
 

The Ravens defense is better than their offense. It’s the reason they win 11 games. Their D is predicted on the blitz, where they led the league in blitz% at over 45%.  It’s the reason they beat us last season.  Our offense couldn’t deal with the pressure and was inept.  
 

Josh has been one the best, if not the best, QB in dealing with the blitz this season. He has made the opposition pay when they bring extra rushers all season.  
 

Unfortunately for us, the ravens are loaded at cornerback.  Humphrey, Peters and Smith are the most physical CB group in the league.  How does that matchup vs the smaller and quicker WRs that we employ?  Will they be able to disrupt their routes at the LOS and throw off the timing while the blitzers bear down?  Will Martindale be able to confuse JA and force him into bad decisions?  Has Josh improved enough where he can decipher what the ravens are doing?  Can Daboll put together the proper game plan to beat the blitz?  
 

IMO- we win if we score 27+ and we’ll only do that if we can have success vs the blitz.  

So what do you think our chances are of winning, cause the way you wrote this its all gloom and doom?

[Plano]

3 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

The numbers dont support Lamar has progressed as a passer this year. 

This.

Lamar isn't a passer. He's a RB who throws it sometimes.

Stop him from running, they are finished.

 

End of thread. 

[eball]

The only thing I'm worried about is our receivers becoming frustrated because defensive PI or illegal contact are not being called.  The refs basically swallowed their whistles in the secondary in our first game and I think that held true around the league.  You had better believe the Ravens know this and will have their physical secondary playing even more physical.  Our WRs need to go into this game with the mindset of knocking the bully in the mouth, not crying for a foul.

[PrimeTime101]

2 minutes ago, Plano said:

This.

Lamar isn't a passer. He's a RB who throws it sometimes.

Stop him from running, they are finished.

 

End of thread. 

its not that easy... 

[WideNine]

7 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

The numbers dont support Lamar has progressed as a passer this year. 

 

Was going to argue with you, but just pure passing you are right. But many former QBs and analysts have seen that he is making better plays and better decisions with the ball.

 

I think this is born out by his QBR that takes into account what he does to help each play succeed:

73.9 in 2019

83.0 in 2020

 

But passing is still his weak point and it is interesting to note that his passing stats have gone down this year - begs the question of whether a ceiling has been reached or if he is just having a down year with the way teams are playing him. Be more telling if the trend continues next year.

 

 

[PaattMaann]

8 minutes ago, eball said:

The only thing I'm worried about is our receivers becoming frustrated because defensive PI or illegal contact are not being called.  The refs basically swallowed their whistles in the secondary in our first game and I think that held true around the league.  You had better believe the Ravens know this and will have their physical secondary playing even more physical.  Our WRs need to go into this game with the mindset of knocking the bully in the mouth, not crying for a foul.

 

agreed. But have you seen much crying from our WRs this year? 

 

There is a reason our defense says that while our defense is full of dogs, they give credit to Diggs being a dog too...they are ready for battle 

4 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Was going to argue with you, but just pure passing you are right. But many former QBs and analysts have seen that he is making better plays and better decisions with the ball.

 

I think this is born out by his QBR that takes into account what he does to help each play succeed:

73.9 in 2019

83.0 in 2020

 

But passing is still his weak point and it is interesting to note that his passing stats have gone down this year - begs the question of whether a ceiling has been reached or if he is just having a down year with the way teams are playing him. Be more telling if the trend continues next year.

 

 

 

yea I have watched a bunch of Ravens this year, and havent seen a lot what I would call growth from Lamar (and I am a BIG Lamar fan for the record, I thought he would be an actual NFL QB because I thought he suffered from no talent around him at Louisville instead of him being a bad actual QB). He seems like he has taken a step back to me this year, could be lack of all those nice TE options this year though. Could be defenses adjusted and him not yet. Could be a combination of a lot of things. 

 

Bottom line for me is, make him throw to beat you. Period. (And to be specific, make him throw downfield and to the outside as much as possible) 

 

Also you flipped his QBR - it was 83 in 19, 73 this year 

Edited January 14, 2021 by PaattMaann

[eball]

3 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

agreed. But have you seen much crying from our WRs this year? 

 

There is a reason our defense says that while our defense is full of dogs, they give credit to Diggs being a dog too...they are ready for battle 

 

Nope, I don't see divas in our WR room, but if they get banged around early and the calls aren't coming I want them to fight back.

[Plano]

10 minutes ago, eball said:

The only thing I'm worried about is our receivers becoming frustrated because defensive PI or illegal contact are not being called.  The refs basically swallowed their whistles in the secondary in our first game and I think that held true around the league.  You had better believe the Ravens know this and will have their physical secondary playing even more physical.  Our WRs need to go into this game with the mindset of knocking the bully in the mouth, not crying for a foul.

chop them in the throat when they jam. make the refs get involved, and if they don't ehhhhhh ravens down!

[BB2004]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Stopping the Ravens run game will obviously be crucial in coming away with a win, but I that as secondary. 
 

The Ravens defense is better than their offense. It’s the reason they win 11 games. Their D is predicted on the blitz, where they led the league in blitz% at over 45%.  It’s the reason they beat us last season.  Our offense couldn’t deal with the pressure and was inept.  
 

Josh has been one the best, if not the best, QB in dealing with the blitz this season. He has made the opposition pay when they bring extra rushers all season.  
 

Unfortunately for us, the ravens are loaded at cornerback.  Humphrey, Peters and Smith are the most physical CB group in the league.  How does that matchup vs the smaller and quicker WRs that we employ?  Will they be able to disrupt their routes at the LOS and throw off the timing while the blitzers bear down?  Will Martindale be able to confuse JA and force him into bad decisions?  Has Josh improved enough where he can decipher what the ravens are doing?  Can Daboll put together the proper game plan to beat the blitz?  
 

IMO- we win if we score 27+ and we’ll only do that if we can have success vs the blitz.  

If we get ahead in this game, it will be difficult for the Ravens to catch up. I’m hoping for a good start so the Ravens have to climb uphill in order to win. 

[WideNine]

3 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

yea I have watched a bunch of Ravens this year, and havent seen a lot what I would call growth from Lamar (and I am a BIG Lamar fan for the record, I thought he would be an actual NFL QB because I thought he suffered from no talent around him at Louisville instead of him being a bad actual QB). He seems like he has taken a step back to me this year, could be lack of all those nice TE options this year though. Could be defenses adjusted and him not yet. Could be a combination of a lot of things. 

 

Bottom line for me is, make him throw to beat you. Period. (And to be specific, make him throw downfield and to the outside as much as possible) 

 

 

Good points all around, and I don't mind being wrong.

 

I kind of felt folks had a chip on their shoulder that was purely griping and negative slant towards Lamar being able to win using his athleticism and legs. Those don't last as long as a good arm - I get it, so there is some merit to the argument of how long those QBs can be effective. That being said, he has those tools now and should use them.

 

I don't think he has a great arm to thread the needle, but he can hit guys when they are clearly open and our corners tend to play off their man.

 

If Lamar has hit a ceiling with his passing ability then his window to be a true game changer will gradually close on him as teams simply adjust to stopping the runs, or if he injures himself in a way that slows him down and limits his running ability as an option. Not talking cheap shots, a player can get turf-toe, sprains, or pulled hammy's without even being touched.

 

But yeah, the plan should still be to make him throw to beat you.

 

 

[Haplo848]

2 hours ago, MPL said:

The Browns put up 42 on this defense in week 14. Jarvis Landry had a huge day and Baker made a ton of throws off schedule and out of the pocket. I think there's reason to believe that Josh and our WR corp can have success. 

Of course, the Ravens put up 45 in this game, even with Lamar taking a 10 minute bathroom break. I think our D is better than Cleveland's but who knows. This game could be wild. 

 

This doesn't really show what that game was truly like.  The Ravens had only 2 CBs left, and all their starters were injured, so they were running out backup safeties to play corner.  It was a mess.  Unfortunately, the Ravens have gotten healthy since that game, so it's not going to be as easy to move the ball on them as it was for the Browns that night.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I believe this entire game is on Daboll scheming up and beating that defense. 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Roundybout]

33 minutes ago, Plano said:

This.

Lamar isn't a passer. He's a RB who throws it sometimes.

Stop him from running, they are finished.

 

End of thread. 

 

Problem is that's easier said than done. The Titans did a solid job of stopping him as a whole...except for when he got free for a pair of 50+ yard runs. He's an elite athlete, there's no doubt about that.