Should we start receiving the kick off of we win the toss?

[prissythecat]

There have been a number of analysis done on defer vs receive.    The below analysis says that receiving the ball in the 2nd half results in an extra point on average plus a 12% chance of "stealing" a possession.

 

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/opening-kickoff-receive-or-defer/#:~:text=Deciding whether to receive or,of games on the margins.&text=A lot of factors play,half when given the chance.

[Matt_In_NH]

2 hours ago, Steptide said:

I could be wrong, but it seems in the games where the bills started on offense (generally because the opponent deferred) the bills seemed to be more successful from the start of the game. They seem to drive right down the field and score and control the game from then on. I understand why teams defer, but the bills seem pretty successful when they start with the ball. Just a thought 

Stats would help support this, list which games the Bills received vs kicked to start and what the score was after the first and second quarter...

[Georgia Bill]

No, because the deeper you get into the playoffs the more amped up everyone is at the beginning of the game.  So you often see 3 and outs or maybe 1 first down then a 3 and out - on both teams - due to the defense being so jacked up and the offense prone to a few erratic passes.  I think the odds of going on a nice sustained scoring drive are better coming out of the half when everybody's calmed down.

[Hebert19]

2 hours ago, Steptide said:

I could be wrong, but it seems in the games where the bills started on offense (generally because the opponent deferred) the bills seemed to be more successful from the start of the game. They seem to drive right down the field and score and control the game from then on. I understand why teams defer, but the bills seem pretty successful when they start with the ball. Just a thought 

Against a team like ravens.  Yes.  Take the ball and try and play with a lead to prevent them from doing what they do. 

[Figster]

9 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

There have been a number of analysis done on defer vs receive.    The below analysis says that receiving the ball in the 2nd half results in an extra point on average plus a 12% chance of "stealing" a possession.

 

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/opening-kickoff-receive-or-defer/#:~:text=Deciding whether to receive or,of games on the margins.&text=A lot of factors play,half when given the chance.

Having the lead at the half with Buffalo receiving the 2nd half kick off also may take the opposition out of what it does best. Shifting more to throwing the football vs run by way of example. Playing more to Buffalo's strengths.  

[Steptide]

36 minutes ago, mattynh said:

Stats would help support this, list which games the Bills received vs kicked to start and what the score was after the first and second quarter...

I wouldn't even know where to get these stats 

[Doc Brown]

You score near the end of the 1st half and get the ball to start the 2nd it can be a real momentum builder.  Last week we scored 10 points using that strtegy.  There also can be about an hour (in real time) where the opposing offense doesn't get the ball.  

[zow2]

All i know is last week was brutal.  I think we kicked off, Colts ball controlled it, eating up several minutes,,,then pinned us deep on the punt.  That set the Bills up for what seemed like poor field position the entire half.  

Even when we kicked off after the TD, Indy had a great return, and were at midfield again in about 2 plays.  What a frustrating half that was.

[The Red King]

I prefer getting the second half kickoff.

* If you are winning, you can extend the lead

* If you are tied you can take the lead

* If you are losing, you get an immediate chance to close the gap

 

If you kick off in the second half you have to immediately...

* If you are winning, you have to try and keep your opponent from coming back

* If you are tied, you have to try and keep them from gaining the lead

* If you are losing, you have to try and stop them from making the deficit even worse

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

It is a consideration, but the new doctrine is to try for the double dip starting the 2nd half, will Sean buck the trend?

 

Go Bills!!!

Belichick would always try to score right before half and then turn around and score again to start the 3rd. It's still a good strategy if you have a top 10 defense. Problem is our defense has holes as we saw last week struggling to get off the field. I'd take the ball to start the game. Get up 7-0.

[WotAGuy]

2 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

Against a team like ravens.  Yes.  Take the ball and try and play with a lead to prevent them from doing what they do. 

The Titans went up 10-0 on the Ravens and it did not “prevent them from doing what they do”. 
 

Whereas the Bills stopping the Colts at the goal line and taking it down for a TD just before the half, and then getting a FG to open the second half meant a 17 point swing that was the turning point in the game. 
 

Defer always. 

Edited January 14, 2021 by WotAGuy

[DCofNC]

If you go out and put them down 7-0, genius.  If you go 3 and out, fool.  Take the ball in the second half.

[Estro]

No I like getting it @ the half, but they should tell Andre Roberts to keep his ass in the enzone for a touchback if the kickoff is beyond a yard deep in the enzone........especially if its kicked directionally to one side of the field.  Those kickoff returns to the 15 yard line with the chance of an injury or holding penalty to back you up even further are not only infuriating, but they're unforced errors.

[Codyny13]

It puts a lot of emphasis and pressure on that first drive though...

[Freddie's Dead]

It all depends.  If you have a windy day, defer so you can get the wind in the 4th quarter.  All else being equal, I take the rock.

[BruceVilanch]

Just make sure you don't say "We want the ball, we're going to score"

[billsbackto81]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

This weekend I'd take the ball. Most weeks I'd defer.

I agree GB. I like to defer, unfortunately I've noticed the last couple of times we've deferred the opposition has been able to drive deep enough against our D to the point that if/when they punt they pin us deep. This starts a cycle of bad starting position if the Offense struggles to get started.  I'd accept and hope to score early and force Baltimore to hold serve. Worst case pin them deep.

[BobbyC81]

9 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Seems to me the Bills would have a better chance with an immediate lead so I endorse this thread

I’ve always thought that way, especially in road games and against the Patriots.  How many games vs New England did they get the kickoff and March down and score and the Bills never threatened?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Yes. Starting with our weakest unit is bad strategy.

[Big Turk]

Absolutely not. The double dip is worth a lot.