Big Turk Posted January 13, 2021 Posted January 13, 2021 (edited) Pro football reference attempts to quantify how good a player's season is by a metric called Approximate Value or AV. Somewhat complicated formula that is used, but I found it interesting that Allen was 1st among all QBs this year at 19. Rodgers was 2nd at 18. LJ at 17, Mahomes at 17, Watson at 16, Brady at 15, Mayfield at 12. Aaron Donald led all players at 22, Allen's 19 was 2nd best. For comparison, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes both had 22's during their MVP seasons. Edited January 13, 2021 by Big Turk 2 2
BfloBillsFan Posted January 13, 2021 Posted January 13, 2021 advance analytics..don't always understand 'em but like to see when a Buffalo Bills is highly rated. In Josh's case, another argument that he is the MVP 1
MJS Posted January 13, 2021 Posted January 13, 2021 So MVP voting has already happened, correct? It just gets announced later? Allen is highest among AV as well as 538's ELO metric among QB's. That right there shows me he should at least garner some votes. But we'll see...
JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS Posted January 13, 2021 Posted January 13, 2021 Without Allen, Diggs doesnt come here. Without Allen and Diggs, we are a 9-7 team at best. Therefore, Allen's AV to me is about 104. 2
Doc Posted January 13, 2021 Posted January 13, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said: Without Allen, Diggs doesnt come here. Without Allen and Diggs, we are a 9-7 team at best. Therefore, Allen's AV to me is about 104. I'm not so sure about that one. He was traded, and Josh didn't prove to be this year's Josh prior to the trade. Edited January 13, 2021 by Doc 1
Turbo44 Posted January 13, 2021 Posted January 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said: Without Allen, Diggs doesnt come here. Without Allen and Diggs, we are a 9-7 team at best. Therefore, Allen's AV to me is about 104. Depending on who the replacement QB and wr are, I’d think it could be considerably worse than 9-7 2
JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS Posted January 13, 2021 Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Doc said: I'm not so sure about that one. He was traded and didn't prove to be this year's Josh prior to the trade. Even so, Diggs isnt putting up his numbers this year with any of our recent QBs, or anyone available as a draft pick to us since 2018. And any way you cut it, we do not win Saturday's game without Allen. So we are still the longest active playoff winning draught in professional sports without Allen. 2
Buftex Posted January 13, 2021 Posted January 13, 2021 31 minutes ago, Doc said: I'm not so sure about that one. He was traded, and Josh didn't prove to be this year's Josh prior to the trade. But, they traded for Diggs, because they had a pretty good idea that they had a good young QB who needed WR help. If they didn't have Allen, they weren't giving up what they did for Diggs. 1
Big Blitz Posted January 13, 2021 Posted January 13, 2021 He's the MVP. Rodgers is right there with him. Degree of difficulty, SOS, importance to team, your stats.....they all say Allen is the MVP. Rodgers 4400 total yards 48 TDS. 70% Comp. Allen 5000 total yards (he finishes v Miami he's well over) 45 TDs total 69% Comp Wouldn't blame you for voting Rodgers. Things are very close stats wise. Allen's SOS clinches it for me.
Thurman#1 Posted January 13, 2021 Posted January 13, 2021 (edited) 5 hours ago, Big Turk said: Pro football reference attempts to quantify how good a player's season is by a metric called Approximate Value or AV. Somewhat complicated formula that is used, but I found it interesting that Allen was 1st among all QBs this year at 19. Rodgers was 2nd at 18. LJ at 17, Mahomes at 17, Watson at 16, Brady at 15, Mayfield at 12. Aaron Donald led all players at 22, Allen's 19 was 2nd best. For comparison, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes both had 22's during their MVP seasons. AV stands for "Approximate Value." They don't even begin to say that a guy who had a 19 is better than a guy with an 18. He also is far more confident of the value being tell in terms of quality of career than he is for quality of season. "So, with all the players in place, I need a way to measure their NFL success. As we go through it, keep in mind that it is not meant to be a precise metric, but rather an approximate measure of value." https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index6b92.html?p=465 "A reminder that this method is for the purpose of establishing approximate value. From yesterday's post, this is James: "The approximations are intended only to distinguish as quickly and reliably as possible between large contributions, very large contributions, gigantic contributions, medium-sized contributions, small, smaller, and negligible contributions." I bolded "as possible" to remind us that there's only so much we're going to be able to do." https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index2905.html?p=466 It isn't exact, and shouldn't be taken as being confident of valuing a QB with an AV one season of 19 as being significantly better than one with an 18. What he said somewhere is that they can't be sure a guy with a 21 is better than a guy with a 20. They do feel confident that groups of guys ranked higher will generally be better than groups of guys ranked lower. 4 hours ago, Big Blitz said: He's the MVP. Rodgers is right there with him. Degree of difficulty, SOS, importance to team, your stats.....they all say Allen is the MVP. Rodgers 4400 total yards 48 TDS. 70% Comp. Allen 5000 total yards (he finishes v Miami he's well over) 45 TDs total 69% Comp Wouldn't blame you for voting Rodgers. Things are very close stats wise. Allen's SOS clinches it for me. Disagree. Rodgers is having a colossal season and will probably be MVP for good reason. But Josh is a close #2, IMO. And that's pretty damn good. Edited January 13, 2021 by Thurman#1 1
machine gun kelly Posted January 13, 2021 Posted January 13, 2021 Thanks Thurmon. I don’t spend a lot of time on advanced analytics, but helpful for the explanation. I would agree with you Rodgers has earned MVP. He’s looked dominating this year as has Allen, but I don’t care if Allen gets it. He has a decade and a half to win that one, and I’ll take a ring for him and MVP in the SB.
BuffaloBill Posted January 13, 2021 Posted January 13, 2021 8 hours ago, MJS said: So MVP voting has already happened, correct? It just gets announced later? Allen is highest among AV as well as 538's ELO metric among QB's. That right there shows me he should at least garner some votes. But we'll see... MVP is determined at the end of the regular season. Not sure why it is done this way but maybe it eliminates recency bias for someone who gets hot in playoffs and Super Bowl.
Doc Posted January 13, 2021 Posted January 13, 2021 9 hours ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said: Even so, Diggs isnt putting up his numbers this year with any of our recent QBs, or anyone available as a draft pick to us since 2018. And any way you cut it, we do not win Saturday's game without Allen. So we are still the longest active playoff winning draught in professional sports without Allen. 8 hours ago, Buftex said: But, they traded for Diggs, because they had a pretty good idea that they had a good young QB who needed WR help. If they didn't have Allen, they weren't giving up what they did for Diggs. I think they would have wanted a stud WR no matter who was playing QB, given the need. Allen just took his game to another level this year, and that's independenty of Diggs, who obviously helped make things better.
Big Turk Posted January 13, 2021 Author Posted January 13, 2021 3 hours ago, machine gun kelly said: Thanks Thurmon. I don’t spend a lot of time on advanced analytics, but helpful for the explanation. I would agree with you Rodgers has earned MVP. He’s looked dominating this year as has Allen, but I don’t care if Allen gets it. He has a decade and a half to win that one, and I’ll take a ring for him and MVP in the SB. The crazy thing is Allen literally put up numbers that nobody in NFL history has ever done and in any other year would easily have been MVP.
BigPappy Posted January 13, 2021 Posted January 13, 2021 9 hours ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said: Without Allen, Diggs doesnt come here. Without Allen and Diggs, we are a 9-7 team at best. Therefore, Allen's AV to me is about 104. That's not exactly a mathematical formula but I think I won't disagree that it can't total up his AV to 104. 😂 As someone else mentioned Diggs would still be here as he was traded to Buffalo. One could argue that Bean never makes that trade if it not for the fact that we have Josh Allen. I think that one could even argue that if it not for Diggs JA doesn't take as significant a leap in his game this year; and I won't argue the fact that if not for JA and Diggs connecting over video games before camp the chemistry they share now wouldn't have been there. All that said, saying we would have been "a 9-7 team at best" is pointless. You would have no idea where we would be.... none of us would. It would be a completely different team. We already had Allen, and he was developing and making progress during and after each season so that puzzle piece was already here. Say we never make that trade for Diggs or someone else ponies up more capital to get him instead of us forcing Bean to go in another direction for a top tier veteran #1 receiver or ending up picking the best receiver available in the draft with their 1st round pick. Do you think Josh would have done anything different as far as trying to connect with that person on a personal level to create that connection and develop that chemistry? Given his character.... I highly doubt it. While that non Diggs player may not have had his veteran experience, he would have at least close to the same level of talent and you can't guess on how he would or at what level he would or could connect with said person that would plug in place of Diggs. So, there is no way to cast such a definitive decision on what this teams record would have been without Diggs. The best part is that we DO have Diggs and we don't need to think about where this team might have been. All we need to do as fans is focus on is where we are now and let Bean and McDermott worry about where we go tomorrow, next week, next month or next year.
Buftex Posted January 13, 2021 Posted January 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Doc said: I think they would have wanted a stud WR no matter who was playing QB, given the need. Allen just took his game to another level this year, and that's independenty of Diggs, who obviously helped make things better. Maybe so, but if, say, we still had Tyrod at QB, I am not sure they would have paid the price they did for Diggs...more likely they would used the draft picks they traded for him, to get a potential "stud". They wanted somebody who was proven at the NFL level, because they had the notion that Josh was ready to take that next step, and didn't want a limited receiving corp to be the thing that held him back. Beane pretty much said as much. They loved what they got from Brown and Beasley, but knew they needed that other guy.
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