Correcting the Narrative: Statistically Josh Allen protects the ball while running better than 75% of NFL QBs

[Chaos]

Josh Allen's fumble rate on rushing attempts is 8.8%. This is better than 75% of starting NFL QBs including Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Taysom Hill, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold.  Here is the complete list:


 

[Buftex]

Good to know...but it is one of the few things I still really worry about with him.  Everytime he runs, I find my eyes focusing on his hands and the ball, and yelling "hold on to it, hold on to it".  It just happens, involuntarily.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Buftex

[TailgateChef]

Great find.  Interesting.

Would like to see that final column if possible.

[H2o]

Those still walking around with torches and pitchforks....

[r00tabaga]

3 minutes ago, TailgateChef said:

Great find.  Interesting.

Would like to see that final column if possible.

I would too, but to me a fumble is a fumble. You can’t argue  ‘well Jackson recovered most of his fumbles’.
You cough ‘d it up, that’s the stat I wanna see. Footballs bounce in mysterious ways.

[streetkings01]

11 minutes ago, Buftex said:

Good to know...but it is one of the few things I still really worry about with him.  Everytime he runs, I find my eyes focusing on his hands and the ball, and yelling "hold on to it, hold on to it".  It just happens, involuntarily.

I scream “get down, get down” 

[Dablitzkrieg]

I don't give a s***, just beat the Ravens

[Thurman#1]

No.

 

You haven't separated fumbles that happen while running from fumbles that happen in the pocket or passing or whatever.

 

Guys don't fumble only when running. QBs handle the ball on every play. Plenty of fumbles come when a guy is passing, not running.

 

You're only taking the total # of fumbles for each guy (and by the way I only checked the first two and already found one error, Cousins had nine, not 10 fumbles) and dividing the total number of fumbles whether running or not, and dividing by the number of runs. All that will do is produce lower, nicer-looking percentages for guys who run more.

 

Sorry, this doesn't show much of anything except that when your denominator is larger the result will be smaller.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Thurman#1

[JMF2006]

4 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

I don't give a s***, just beat the Ravens

 

Wouldn't it be nice if he out rushed Lamar "I am an RB playing QB" Jackson?

 

He should out pass him easily but out rushing him would really stick it to them

[Captain_Quint]

We came to the conclusion in the other fumble thread that Josh sweats like a pig and the ball turns into a greased up chicken when he tucks it and runs. 

[Matt_In_NH]

Where does this info come from?  I am questioning if this is fumbles on running plays or just total fumbles including on passing plays which would make conclusions pointless.

[Chaos]

33 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

No.

 

You haven't separated fumbles that happen while running from fumbles that happen in the pocket or passing or whatever.

 

Guys don't fumble only when running. QBs handle the ball on every play. Plenty of fumbles come when a guy is passing, not running.

 

You're only taking the total # of fumbles for each guy (and by the way I only checked the first two and already found one error, Cousins had nine, not 10 fumbles) and dividing the total number of fumbles whether running or not, and dividing by the number of runs. All that will do is produce lower, nicer-looking percentages for guys who run more.

 

Sorry, this doesn't show much of anything except that when your denominator is larger the result will be smaller.

This is the stat source. Feel free to give them a call with your corrections. 

https://pickingpros.com/nfl/quarterback-rushing-leaders.php

4 minutes ago, mattynh said:

Where does this info come from?  I am questioning if this is fumbles on running plays or just total fumbles including on passing plays which would make conclusions pointless.

https://pickingpros.com/nfl/quarterback-rushing-leaders.php

[Doc]

I don’t know about the other quarterbacks, but that table lists nine fumbles and two of those weren’t Josh’s fault. So his rate is even lower than that. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

He’s tied for 7th in most fumbles. It’s a problem and needs to get better. It’s his only glaring weakness.

[Matt_In_NH]

7 minutes ago, Chaos said:

This is the stat source. Feel free to give them a call with your corrections. 

https://pickingpros.com/nfl/quarterback-rushing-leaders.php

https://pickingpros.com/nfl/quarterback-rushing-leaders.php

It does not say explicitly but It is obviously total fumbles not fumbles on rush plays.   The percentages are ridiculously high and would be totally unaccepatable.  

Edited January 12, 2021 by mattynh

[Ta111]

5 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

He’s tied for 7th in most fumbles. It’s a problem and needs to get better. It’s his only glaring weakness.

Disagree. You need to look at the rate of fumbles. It’s like saying a QB who threw 3 interceptions out of 300 throws is worse than a QB who threw 2 picks in 10 throws. Josh is required to run much much more than most QB’s. It’s about as bad as the accuracy narrative.

[DrPJax]

44 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Josh Allen's fumble rate on rushing attempts is 8.8%. This is better than 75% of starting NFL QBs including Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Taysom Hill, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold.  Here is the complete list:


 

Great find , thx. Allen has done remarkably well at fixing his fumbling issues when he is running rpo’s , or elective scrambles.  However the fumble on Saturday occurred when the O line protection broke down , Allen was hit immediately and then he broke free turning into another d lineman who had gotten in rapidly.  No time for Josh to escape or readjust his grip there as he fumbled while being dragged down. This type of thing will happen to any Qb when the O line protection broke down. 
My thinking concerning the Ravens is their d and D coordinator, wink martidale, knows Josh from our last encounter and they experienced his difficulty with blitzes then. Now add Campbell ,a d line playing with confidence , and I am sure we will be seeing Josh being blitzed quite a bit.  They can’t afford to let him sit back there and give Diggs and Beasley and tap dancer time to break down their coverage imho. Josh has done well with blitzes compared to prior seasons but since we have no run game to garner respect and slow penetration, my fear is Josh will possibly be sacked 5-7 times with multiple hurries. If that happens he may at sometime be blindsided or revert to his one bad habit of turning his back to the LOS ( this has happened in fg territory over the years and he has several instances of losing yardage in scoring position) with no chance to hit a hot reciever or throw the ball away. That’s the only situation I worry about his ball security. 
 

I hope daboll can out scheme martindale. I don’t think we can run against them if Henry couldn’t.  Get the ball out quickly with bubble screens on the edges. Quick crossing routes to Beasley, maybe Stills who would be a new wrinkle.  Our tight ends will probably be tied up as extra blockers, but perhaps a split back set with Devin/Yeldon,   or how bout Yeldon / Williams ( possibly bring up both and let jones be inactive as Williams can do special teams as well) and leak one of them to the side behind the blitz.  Just some thoughts because this is a confident, pressure producing d line / D  and last weeks some what sluggish production ( at the half I think we were 0/4 on 3 rd down conversions ) if repeated may have us playing from behind and letting them really turn up the pressure.   Our d will be our be our weak link and we will need to put up 28-30 I believe to best Lamars production. So help Josh with ball security; don’t set him up to take hits or be forced into scrambling with his back to the LOS. IF  we DON’T turn the ball over, we win this game. If we are -1/2 in turnovers, Lamar gets more chances to finally break one on a team prone to poor tackling and they will steal one at home from us. 
 

Josh is our ticket to the Super Bowl and I think he has vastly improved his ball security on elective runs and scrambles and this data shows that. Now prepare for the onslaught from Martindale and protect Josh from blindside hits and we win the T/O ratio and the game!  Coaching is everything in the playoffs. McD has also vastly improved imho , and I hope DABOLL AND FRAZIER come thru for him ! 

[Ta111]

5 minutes ago, mattynh said:

It does not say explicitly but It is obviously total fumbles not fumbles on rush plays.   The percentages are ridiculously high and would be totally unaccepatable.  

Well, you could argue that on many fumbles in the pocket the QB didn’t tuck the ball properly so it’s really hard to differentiate.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Buftex said:

Good to know...but it is one of the few things I still really worry about with him.  Everytime he runs, I find my eyes focusing on his hands and the ball, and yelling "hold on to it, hold on to it".  It just happens, involuntarily.

 

Allen's issues are when he tries to fight for yardage most of the time.  He has done a lot better at getting down, living to fight another day and knowing when a yard or two just isn't worth the risk to either himself or to losing the ball.

21 minutes ago, DrPJax said:

Great find , thx. Allen has done remarkably well at fixing his fumbling issues when he is running rpo’s , or elective scrambles.  However the fumble on Saturday occurred when the O line protection broke down , Allen was hit immediately and then he broke free turning into another d lineman who had gotten in rapidly.  No time for Josh to escape or readjust his grip there as he fumbled while being dragged down. This type of thing will happen to any Qb when the O line protection broke down. 
My thinking concerning the Ravens is their d and D coordinator, wink martidale, knows Josh from our last encounter and they experienced his difficulty with blitzes then. Now add Campbell ,a d line playing with confidence , and I am sure we will be seeing Josh being blitzed quite a bit.  They can’t afford to let him sit back there and give Diggs and Beasley and tap dancer time to break down their coverage imho. Josh has done well with blitzes compared to prior seasons but since we have no run game to garner respect and slow penetration, my fear is Josh will possibly be sacked 5-7 times with multiple hurries. If that happens he may at sometime be blindsided or revert to his one bad habit of turning his back to the LOS ( this has happened in fg territory over the years and he has several instances of losing yardage in scoring position) with no chance to hit a hot reciever or throw the ball away. That’s the only situation I worry about his ball security. 
 

I hope daboll can out scheme martindale. I don’t think we can run against them if Henry couldn’t.  Get the ball out quickly with bubble screens on the edges. Quick crossing routes to Beasley, maybe Stills who would be a new wrinkle.  Our tight ends will probably be tied up as extra blockers, but perhaps a split back set with Devin/Yeldon,   or how bout Yeldon / Williams ( possibly bring up both and let jones be inactive as Williams can do special teams as well) and leak one of them to the side behind the blitz.  Just some thoughts because this is a confident, pressure producing d line / D  and last weeks some what sluggish production ( at the half I think we were 0/4 on 3 rd down conversions ) if repeated may have us playing from behind and letting them really turn up the pressure.   Our d will be our be our weak link and we will need to put up 28-30 I believe to best Lamars production. So help Josh with ball security; don’t set him up to take hits or be forced into scrambling with his back to the LOS. IF  we DON’T turn the ball over, we win this game. If we are -1/2 in turnovers, Lamar gets more chances to finally break one on a team prone to poor tackling and they will steal one at home from us. 
 

Josh is our ticket to the Super Bowl and I think he has vastly improved his ball security on elective runs and scrambles and this data shows that. Now prepare for the onslaught from Martindale and protect Josh from blindside hits and we win the T/O ratio and the game!  Coaching is everything in the playoffs. McD has also vastly improved imho , and I hope DABOLL AND FRAZIER come thru for him ! 

 

Ravens problem is they don't get there on blitzes a lot of the time and hope their CBs hold up. That won't work against the Bills they will get smoked.

He also might be overconfident since he saw Allen last year and might not fully believe what the tape shows this year over his experience in person last year.  AT least that is what I am hoping for.  Bills are exceptional at pass pro and picking up blitzes this year, they will get killed if they try this strategy.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Big Turk

[Matt_In_NH]

54 minutes ago, Ta111 said:

Well, you could argue that on many fumbles in the pocket the QB didn’t tuck the ball properly so it’s really hard to differentiate.

What do you mean?  All fumbles are bad but if you play quarterback they are going to happen.   The point of this thread is about a fumble rate on running plays.  They listed running plays and TOTAL fumbles (passing and running) so the information is not useful.   If we had total touches including drop backs we could do a fumble percent based on touches.  If you had fumbles on running plays we could get the info this thread is trying to show but it likely would not be good for Allen if you actually had that.  The guy is phenomenol but not perfect, still has some things to clean up, that is ok.  Overall his fumlbes are close to many others, so its not a huge issue.  Mahomes has 5, Rodgers 4.....that is the target.

Edited January 12, 2021 by mattynh