Chris Simms Unbuttoned on Colts-Bills: he's worried about us

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

There’s a bit more to it than that. For starters; 58% vs 74% completion percentages for Rivers and Allen respectively. 36.5 (Colts) vs 47 (Bojorquez); punt average. 40% vs 100%; Colts vs Bills red zone efficiency. There are more aspects of this game where the Bills performed better when you start to look at the details. For example we took away TY Hilton (32 yards on 2 receptions) and limited Taylor to 3.6 y/c. As a result of a few things like that I don’t exactly see all of those drops as incidental. Rather, they managed to make Rivers throw to secondary options and rely on a rookie who’s had a fair amount of drops to make plays on critical downs. I also think that their offense looked a bit better than it should have due to the refs not calling holding at all. There were a few egregious holds that were completely ignored. Veldheer in particular got away with basically horse collaring Hughes and committing a violent act of love on Edmunds in the red zone. 
 

Of course, at the end of the day a team always stands a good chance of winning when they’re QB plays better and their head coach out coaches the other on game day. 

 

Good assessment and love the descriptive.  Too true.  The Colts came out holding.  The Bills OL held more after halftime when they assessed it wasn't being called (and I was terrified the refs would change their mind at inopportune times.

 

I do think that Reich had a brilliantly designed offensive game plans and a number of plays I think Daboll will steal if he doesn't already have something like that scripted up.  The Colts also showed why it's important to have quality play at TE.  Cover1 showed an end zone angle on one catch where Hyde's coverage was so perfect you literally can't see him from the endzone.  He's right there, and you can see from the other view that he got his hands up.  Rivers just threw the ball where the TE could outjump him and make the catch anyway.

[SectionC3]

30 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

While I don't necessarily agree with the take that it was a complete stinker on Saturday (I believe the defense played fairly well through 3 quarters, given the field possesion differential and time on the field), I agree with your overall assessment that the 4th quarter defense left a lot to be desired and the offensive line was physically outplayed most of the game. The play calling was questionable at times, they could not put together any semblance of a run game, and Allen rarely had the ability to throw from a clean pocket.

 

IMO (here's the only other area in which I disagree with you), Allen was phenomenal. Those throws to Davis, all while on the run from heavy pressure were elite throws. If a QB makes a throw like that once in a while, one could argue it is a lucky throw. When that type of throw has become routine for Allen when throwing outside the pocket on the run, it is talent. Again, IMO, he carried the team on Saturday.

 

In the final analysis, I am with you: The Colts played, arguably, the best game of their season while the Bills played far from their best - and the Bills still won. I believe they will learn from this game and be better against the Ravens.

 

Cheers, my friend 

 

 

Maybe you're right about elite.  They were ridiculous.  I thought he was throwing the first one away and, as it was in the air, I was thinking that he put a lot on it to simply get rid of the ball.  Just a stunning throw.  Probably the most amazing throw I've ever seen.  I don't think a play like that is easily replicable.  The other throw was reminiscent of Rodgers (on Thanksgiving, I think?).  Just absurd.  But probably not as lucky. 

 

I think we actually kind of agree on Allen.  He is the reason we won the game.  I just felt like . . . I know he can play a lot better.  It's not a criticism, I guess, just a recognition of what a gifted player he is and what an excellent player he has become.  If he's "on" his game, we will win the Super Bowl.  

[Jauronimo]

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

and i dont understand yours. i dont care how long they possessed the ball. the d gave up 24 points. thats merely an average output in todays NFL. AGAIN, for as sub-par as we both felt they played, they held a top ten scoring team to 4 pts below their average and made the play at the end of the game that should have sealed it(fumble). So how awful were they really? come on, man...... also FTR, the colts possessed it for 34 minutes. 6 mins shy of the 40 it would take to have it for 2/3's

 

The problem with losing TOP as badly as we were in the first half is that the Colts ran 18 more plays and had one more drive than us. 

 

A big part of that was our total ineptitude on 3rd down as an offense.  That is my biggest concern.  Bills were the best team in the league on 3rd down conversions in the regular season and went 2-9 on 3rd against the Colts.  If we sustain a few more drives we might not have been starting drives inside our own 10, might have scored some more points, and forced Indy into pass mode where our secondary can make plays.

[GaryPinC]

13 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I just don't think their defense can hold up vs. KC's passing attack. They have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, and KC has arguably the best passing offense. 

Yep, agree that looks bad on paper and they have been soft down the middle this year.  CLE's D-line will be key.  But, they're finally getting healthy on both sides of the ball and the moment wasn't too big for them in Pittsburgh when nearly everyone thought it would be. 

[GaryPinC]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

A lot underestimate him around here..... as if they need to bring him down to prop up Allen. Jackson is no Tyrod. He is a very good QB. 

The thing about him is he doesn't see the field well and I hope Frazier makes it a point to roll our coverage to whatever side he's scrambling.  But we did a good job against the Ravens last year so I'm hoping they can scheme them up again.

[Jauronimo]

4 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

The thing about him is he doesn't see the field well and I hope Frazier makes it a point to roll our coverage to whatever side he's scrambling.  But we did a good job against the Ravens last year so I'm hoping they can scheme them up again.

One thing Lamar does well is hitting guys for deep shots when scrambling.  Typically when DBs and safeties abandon their man to fly down field in run support, Lamar will plant and throw right before crossing the LOS.  Even when he does have wide open guys he still has a tendency to miss wildly.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

7 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

Yep, agree that looks bad on paper and they have been soft down the middle this year.  CLE's D-line will be key.  But, they're finally getting healthy on both sides of the ball and the moment wasn't too big for them in Pittsburgh when nearly everyone thought it would be. 

Their secondary is atrociously bad, they have no impact linebackers either, maybe Takitaki.  

 

Part of that is no Delpit, no Greedy Williams, but Denzel Ward, as good as he is, is small. And Harrison has been in and out of the lineup all season. 

 

It's not scheme for the Browns, they don't have any horses in their back 7. 

[finn]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

One thing I'll say about Jackson is that he's a better passer than many think. Yes, his passing game is helped by the Ravens running game. However, in their last six games -- which is a six-game winning streak including the playoffs -- his passer rating is a sky-high 107.9, and he's completing 68 percent of his passes at 8.0 ypa. People shouldn't underestimate him. His passing numbers in 2019 were ridiculously good too. 

Well, keep in mind he was facing some pretty mediocre defenses: Dallas, Jaguars, Giants, Bengals and Titans. Only Cleveland was better than ok, and they barely won that game. I'm not underestimating him, but I have more respect for Kyler Murray, who offers everything Jackson does and is a more dangerous passer. The Bills wrote the book on Jackson last year: keep him in the pocket. He gets antsy, double clutches then, if he can't escape, takes the sack. Of course, you can't contain him all day, but if they keep him from scoring more than a few TD's, the Bills should be ok. 

[Mango]

13 hours ago, Rocket94 said:

Indy laid out the perfect blueprint on how to beat the Bills.  McDermott has to be running film on the players around the clock!

Yes...a legitimate TE and RB!

 

Meh, perfect blue print to put up points, but ultimately the Bills went into the half with the lead after not starting a single drive outside their own 10 yard line. I trust this team in a shoot out. The only reason this game was so close was because of the field position in the first half. 

The defense is a major concern. 

[SectionC3]

16 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

One thing Lamar does well is hitting guys for deep shots when scrambling.  Typically when DBs and safeties abandon their man to fly down field in run support, Lamar will plant and throw right before crossing the LOS.  Even when he does have wide open guys he still has a tendency to miss wildly.

 

The INT last week was a brutal throw.  Not sure if it was on the move - he might have been climbing the pocket.  But just a horrible, horrible throw. 

 

[Jauronimo]

7 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

 

The INT last week was a brutal throw.  Not sure if it was on the move - he might have been climbing the pocket.  But just a horrible, horrible throw. 

 

What little I have seen of Lamar this season always includes comically bad misses. The type of misses that go viral in 2 minutes if its Josh Allen.  He hits a few home runs every game and that's the part that concerns me but man does he leave points on the field.  Hoping the latter continues Saturday night.  

[NewEra]

12 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Said the same thing about Rivers watching the game.... He just kept drifting back in the pocket on that 4th down early when there was absolutely no pressure. Basically Rivers career. Guy never wins a big playoff game..... he does just enough to not win it. And thankfully he did it again Saturday.

 

And Sims is 100% right. Bills won’t beat the Ravens if the defense is that trash again unless Allen continues to carry the team on his back. I mean, where would this team be without Allen? Probably not even a .500 ball club. 
 

 

I mean, can you really ask that question without talking about who his replacement would be?  

[billsrul120]

2 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

Agree to disagree.  They came into that game wanting to minimize possessions, bleed clock and make good use of every chance they had.  

 

They scored 24, possessed the ball for 2/3rds of the game, never turned it over and moved into our side of the field, which - at the very least - kept us pinned back on offense.  

 

They did everything they wanted on O, except for self inflicted wounds on two critical missed throws by Rivers, drops to open guys in the flat and a missed chip shot FG.

 

Then, when we went up by 14, I figured hey.. at least it takes them forever to  move the ball and the clock is not their friend in the 4th Q... nope... they then just moved the ball like the greatest show on turf. 

He says while conveniently leaving out the fact that the Colts couldn't even get in position for a long field goal attempt starting with about 2 and half minutes left when they needed it the most. 

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by billsrul120

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, billsrul120 said:

He says while conveniently leaving out the fact that the Colts couldn't even get in position for a long field goal attempt starting with about 2 and half minutes left when they needed it the most. 

 

 

Man.. some y'all have really low expectations for our defense.  

 

I don't expect perfection, but I don't think we should sugar coat how poor their performance was on Saturday.  They are the only team to give up the stats they did and win....ever.  

 

Congrats on them not completely blowing the game on that final stop.  

 

I don't believe we have a bad defense, and i'm hopeful to see the return of the defense we saw in the last half of the season against Baltimore. 

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good assessment and love the descriptive.  Too true.  The Colts came out holding.  The Bills OL held more after halftime when they assessed it wasn't being called (and I was terrified the refs would change their mind at inopportune times.

 

I do think that Reich had a brilliantly designed offensive game plans and a number of plays I think Daboll will steal if he doesn't already have something like that scripted up.  The Colts also showed why it's important to have quality play at TE.  Cover1 showed an end zone angle on one catch where Hyde's coverage was so perfect you literally can't see him from the endzone.  He's right there, and you can see from the other view that he got his hands up.  Rivers just threw the ball where the TE could outjump him and make the catch anyway.

The adjustment was solid, but unfortunately it didn’t trump the Colts advanced accounting on the officiating crew. If the Bills had come out with that at the start of the game I think we get out of that field position hole in the first quarter. I do think that Reich & staff really prepared better for this game. Unfortunately for them, McD smacked them with game day decisions..... which was nice to see as it signifies self assessment and improvement from McD. 
 

There’s really nothing we can do about the TE situation until the off-season. I think we would benefit from Sweeney if he was available though. He’s certainly not a world beater, but he did show a penchant for finding holes in zones, making himself available to Allen, and catching the ball. There’s a reliability factor that goes with being a 6’4” check down option. Still, he’s no world beater and we can definitely improve.

 

As for defending TE’s, the only guys with the size and speed to do so on our D are Milano and Edmunds, and teams have figured out where they’re going to be and scheme to exploit the hand off to a DB. We saw that with the Doyle touchdown where there was a communication breakdown between White and Milano.

[dave mcbride]

54 minutes ago, finn said:

Well, keep in mind he was facing some pretty mediocre defenses: Dallas, Jaguars, Giants, Bengals and Titans. Only Cleveland was better than ok, and they barely won that game. I'm not underestimating him, but I have more respect for Kyler Murray, who offers everything Jackson does and is a more dangerous passer. The Bills wrote the book on Jackson last year: keep him in the pocket. He gets antsy, double clutches then, if he can't escape, takes the sack. Of course, you can't contain him all day, but if they keep him from scoring more than a few TD's, the Bills should be ok. 

He was getting pressure and instead of throwing to the boundary, it ended up being a wounded duck to the hashmarks. He threw without stepping into it. It was inconsequential, however. A bomb from your own end that gets intercepted between the 20-30 yard line way downfield is basically a punt. All QBs make bad throws like that. Allen did it vs. Pittsburgh in the first half when he had a guy in his face.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

A lot underestimate him around here..... as if they need to bring him down to prop up Allen. Jackson is no Tyrod. He is a very good QB. 

 

He's 22nd in yards, 24th in attempts, 11th in rating, and 33rd in yards/game (less than 200yds/game, only Cam and Tua averaged less).

 

I know his numbers are low due to how they run that offense, but they run the offense that way due to his abilities (read: limitations).

 

I'd say we estimate him just fine.

[Nextmanup]

The story of this game is 7 trips over the 50 yard line for Indy with ZERO POINTS to show for it.

 

No team with over 400 yards offense and zero turnovers (like Indy had) has ever lost a playoff game.

 

Of those with those stats who won, they won by an average of over 20 point margin! 

 

And Indy lost! 

 

This is why I wrote in the post-game thread 3 minutes after the game was over that if we play like this in the next round, we go home.

 

 

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

A lot underestimate him around here..... as if they need to bring him down to prop up Allen. Jackson is no Tyrod. He is a very good QB. 

 

I find that people rarely take the rational approach to Lamar Jackson:

 

Some just pretend he's terrible.  He's not.

 

Some want to prop him up like he's an elite QB.  He's not. 

 

He is a solid QB who happens to be an elite playmaker.  You have to defend him like you would any elite playmaker, while keeping in mind that he can make throws down field when there's a big window.   That certainly equates to "very good QB" in my eyes.

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by SCBills

[SectionC3]

1 hour ago, Jauronimo said:

The problem with losing TOP as badly as we were in the first half is that the Colts ran 18 more plays and had one more drive than us. 

 

A big part of that was our total ineptitude on 3rd down as an offense.  That is my biggest concern.  Bills were the best team in the league on 3rd down conversions in the regular season and went 2-9 on 3rd against the Colts.  If we sustain a few more drives we might not have been starting drives inside our own 10, might have scored some more points, and forced Indy into pass mode where our secondary can make plays.

Agreed.  Part of the constellation of factors that went Indy’s way.  They had to play a perfect game to win, and they nearly did.  But for what I suspect was a perfect breeze on their missed FG a and the overthrow of Pittman it easily could have been different.