Chris Simms Unbuttoned on Colts-Bills: he's worried about us

[RyanC883]

we need help on the lines for next year, particularly the D line.  

[Stank_Nasty]

3 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Agree to disagree.  They came into that game wanting to minimize possessions, bleed clock and make good use of every chance they had.  

 

They scored 24, possessed the ball for 2/3rds of the game, never turned it over and moved into our side of the field, which - at the very least - kept us pinned back on offense.  

 

They did everything they wanted on O, except for self inflicted wounds on two critical missed throws by Rivers, drops to open guys in the flat and a missed chip shot FG.

they possessed it for 34 min. not 2/3's. the colts were averaging less than 4ypc and had 60 yds rushing with 10 pts scored heading into the 4th. you call that doing what they wanted? what game were you watching? The 4th quarter D was an issue. Luckily they played good ball the first 3. how about we look at the full picture? 

 

I think we both agree they'll be better. So theres that i guess.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Stank_Nasty

[Simon]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I wonder myself if the Colts noticed patterns in our zone coverage that we could shift or redo to take away "tells" in a relatively short time. 

 My sense during the game was that the Colts were attacking personell as much as they were attacking spots on the field.

This could easily be a six of one, half dozen of the other issue, though.

[Stank_Nasty]

2 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

I think you should care because every second they have it, Josh Allen does not.

That affects the entire game, not just the BillsD vs ColtsO matchup.

 

 

they possessed it for 34 minutes.... not nearly the amount people would like to make it out to be around here.

[ndirish1978]

I agree with him, this was not a great game for us defensively. The offense really wasn't clicking all that much for us either. Josh had to run the ball way too much this game just to push the offense down the field. Worrisome game headed into the Baltimore one. 

[dave mcbride]

11 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I have said this since the KC game—

our defense can basically focus on and stop one thing. They aren’t good enough to stop balanced attacks.  And when the Bills get a lead, it’s great— because they just focus on playing the pass. 
 

The good news is that there aren’t a ton of balanced offenses left— KC, GB, and maybe NO? Everyone else is pretty run or pass heavy. 

Cleveland is balanced (and the Bills lost to them last year), but I think KC is going to obliterate them. Mahomes ain't gonna turn it over like Roethlisberger.

[Sharky7337]

6 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

I agree with him, this was not a great game for us defensively. The offense really wasn't clicking all that much for us either. Josh had to run the ball way too much this game just to push the offense down the field. Worrisome game headed into the Baltimore one. 

Aftwr watching the cover 1 film review the defense did some good things and it wasn't as bad as I thought.

 

Missed tackles was the key I think

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Sharky7337

[Simon]

20 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

they possessed it for 34 minutes.... not nearly the amount people would like to make it out to be around here.

The other factor that I think needs to be taken into account is how many plays you're running. The Bills only had like 8 possessions and as a result only ran 50-something plays; meanwhile the defense's inability to get the Colts off the field resulted in the Colts offense running 70-something plays.

When your opponent gets the opportunity to run 20+ more plays than you do, you're putting yourself at a distinct disadvantage, imo.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, finn said:

I think this nails it, although I'm not sure if it's personnel or approach that determines this outcome. In the Colts game, it's like the coaches decided that they had to stop Taylor at all costs, much like they stopped Henry and (pretty much) Mahomes. As you say, the good news is that not many teams left have the balance the Colts have. Baltimore may be the most unbalanced team of all. Please tell me if you think I'm wrong, but it seems to me that if Jackson isn't allowed to run at all, they lose. If this is the case, then the Bills' formula should work, provided the Bills offense holds up its side of the bargain. 

One thing I'll say about Jackson is that he's a better passer than many think. Yes, his passing game is helped by the Ravens running game. However, in their last six games -- which is a six-game winning streak including the playoffs -- his passer rating is a sky-high 107.9, and he's completing 68 percent of his passes at 8.0 ypa. People shouldn't underestimate him. His passing numbers in 2019 were ridiculously good too. 

Edited January 12, 2021 by dave mcbride

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, SectionC3 said:

 

Agreed.  Here's another reality.  We played a stinker on Saturday in which our lines "lost" during the first three quarters and really "lost" during the fourth quarter.  Field position was horrible all day long, in large part to at least one dumb decision by Roberts.  D couldn't get off the field on third downs.  John Brown was a negative.  Game plan might have been a little better (use McKenzie a bit to at least get them thinking and maybe make their D-line run side to side and get a little more tired?).  I don't even think Allen was all that sharp, honestly. (The toe-tappers to Davis were kind of lucky and inflated both our score and his stats.)  And yet we still won.  

 

Basically, this year, we learned that the way to beat us is through a balanced attack and to have our offense have a stinker.  Tennessee wrote the script.  Arizona, although an unlucky loss, was similar.  Our troubles really arise when we play a team like the Titans where we have to sell out to stop the run and the QB is good enough to beat us otherwise.  KC and first NE games were affected by weather and injury, and I don't think they speak to the formula to beat us. 

 

So, long story short, yes we were bad on Saturday, but I completely agree with you.  Now we're used to being in a tough game again, and we won in spite of turning in a clunker.  Let's make Lamar beat us through the air and see what happens.  Let's also see how true they are to their principles - bring on the blitz, and let's let Allen throw it around all day. 

 

 

While I don't necessarily agree with the take that it was a complete stinker on Saturday (I believe the defense played fairly well through 3 quarters, given the field possesion differential and time on the field), I agree with your overall assessment that the 4th quarter defense left a lot to be desired and the offensive line was physically outplayed most of the game. The play calling was questionable at times, they could not put together any semblance of a run game, and Allen rarely had the ability to throw from a clean pocket.

 

IMO (here's the only other area in which I disagree with you), Allen was phenomenal. Those throws to Davis, all while on the run from heavy pressure were elite throws. If a QB makes a throw like that once in a while, one could argue it is a lucky throw. When that type of throw has become routine for Allen when throwing outside the pocket on the run, it is talent. Again, IMO, he carried the team on Saturday.

 

In the final analysis, I am with you: The Colts played, arguably, the best game of their season while the Bills played far from their best - and the Bills still won. I believe they will learn from this game and be better against the Ravens.

 

Cheers, my friend 

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by billsfan1959

[Livinginthepast]

All the things that Simms said are true, its a good analysis but our problems vs the Colts were hardly inexplicable.  The situation is now how do we fix these things before Saturday. Frazier and McD need to creating a defensive game plan that not only focusses on neutralizing Jacksons run game but messes up his reads in the passing game. But probably the most important thing besides this tailor made Plan A, is a PLAN B!! They obviously had no Plan B vs Rivers last week or if they did it wasn't very good. They must have a Plan B and adjust if Jackson starts burning us with runs or if we cannot get pressure. Most of what they tried against Rivers in the was an abysmal failure but the defense was able to stiffen and they got a few bad throws and some good luck. You cannot win on that every week, especially in the playoffs. They have to adjust if their game plan is failing. They did this really well against the Steelers and I thought we had really turned a corner but there it was again vs the Colts!

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

I am fully on board with this.  Thought about it a little yesterday and I am just not sure where they get that player.   Its not a great runningback class, and Kenyan Drake is probably the best player in free agency.  I wonder if there is anyone we can bring in via trade?

Javante Williams probably won’t be there when we pick, but if he is I hope Beane considers taking him. Plus..... He’s a “Williams”.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Buffalo Junction

[Realist]

I agree with Simms, but I look at it a little differently. We played like crap for pretty much the entire game and still came out on top. I don't think we play that bad again in the playoffs.

 

I'm not saying we're going all the way yet, because any AFC team can easily reach the Super Bowl.

[Fan in Chicago]

23 minutes ago, Simon said:

The other factor that I think needs to be taken into account is how many plays you're running. The Bills only had like 8 possessions and as a result only ran 50-something plays; meanwhile the defense's inability to get the Colts off the field resulted in the Colts offense running 70-something plays.

When your opponent gets the opportunity to run 20+ more plays than you do, you're putting yourself at a distinct disadvantage, imo.

We were certainly not playing complementary football in the first half (at least). A 25+ yard differential in field position was hurting really badly on both sides of the ball. The #of plays delta correlated with this.

 

If it wasn't for that phenomenal drive prior to the end of the half (read: the Allen-Davis show), this game would have been unsalvageable in the second half. 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Fan in Chicago

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

36 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Cleveland is balanced (and the Bills lost to them last year), but I think KC is going to obliterate them. Mahomes ain't gonna turn it over like Roethlisberger.

I have never seen Cleveland look so balanced as Sunday. For whatever reason, Stefanski gets away from the run game way too much for the talent they have there. I thought AVP called a terrific, balanced game. That said, it’s easier to call a great game when you get three quick turnovers and have a lead.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

47 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

they possessed it for 34 minutes.... not nearly the amount people would like to make it out to be around here.

 

Can I vote for "you're both right"?  The TOP was dead even in the 2nd half - the Bills may have had a slight edge.  No big deal.

 

In the first half, the Colts had a 2 to 1 TOP advantage.  20 minutes to 10 minutes. 

 

That's huge.  It's actually amazing defense that we went into half leading 14-10 because all of their drives started more than halfway to Bills territory and two of them started past the 40.

1 minute ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I have never seen Cleveland look so balanced as Sunday. For whatever reason, Stefanski gets away from the run game way too much for the talent they have there. I thought AVP called a terrific, balanced game. That said, it’s easier to call a great game when you get three quick turnovers and have a lead.  

 

Not to mention, Pittsburgh came out looking unprepared and they quickly advanced to looking whupped.

[GaryPinC]

29 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Cleveland is balanced (and the Bills lost to them last year), but I think KC is going to obliterate them. Mahomes ain't gonna turn it over like Roethlisberger.

Maybe.  But don't count Cleveland out.  That O-line is fantastic with Wyatt Teller in there, he's finally healthy and if Bitonio, Conklin can make it back they can control the ball.  Browns are weak at LB and secondary but Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson should make it back from Covid also.

 

In one game, they came together and won a tough football game handily, not allowing an experienced team like the Steelers back into it.  Baker was cool and focused the entire game, Hunt will be uber motivated, Landry's always tough.

 

Maybe their youth catches up this week but I think it'll at least be a tight match.  That's a talented Cleveland squad who have had a tough time with Covid and injuries but are finally getting healthy.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, Realist said:

I agree with Simms, but I look at it a little differently. We played like crap for pretty much the entire game and still came out on top. I don't think we play that bad again in the playoffs.

 

I'm not saying we're going all the way yet, because any AFC team can easily reach the Super Bowl.

 

I hope you're right.  I can't say we "played like crap" so categorically either.  As I said elsewhere, we had a 2:1 TOP disadvantage going into the half, Indy was starting drives from a 36 yd line ave and we were starting from our own 8 yd line. 

 

It takes a pretty good defense to keep the opponent to 10 points in those circumstances.  Also, I hate the "if not for these plays Indy blew" Monday morning stuff because you can also do "if not for these plays we blew" analysis.  What if Roberts keeps his ass in the endzone after the Indy TD and we start on the 25 yd line instead of the 6?  We have more playbook available on the 25 yd line.  What if we convert 3 and 1, as we have pretty reliably all season, and sustain that drive? What if Hyde intercepts one of the two passes that went through his hands?   The what-if'ing can go both ways.

 

And any time one play changes, the whole game changes, as my kid learned in 6th grade CYC ball.

 

I will say we got whupped on both sides of the line.  Indy does have, I believe, 2 all-pros on both sides of their line, and probably with good reason.  We have been whupped on the line one week before, and have come back pissed off and fired up and gotten it done the next week, so here's hoping.

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

Maybe.  But don't count Cleveland out.  That O-line is fantastic with Wyatt Teller in there, he's finally healthy and if Bitonio, Conklin can make it back they can control the ball.  Browns are weak at LB and secondary but Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson should make it back from Covid also.

 

In one game, they came together and won a tough football game handily, not allowing an experienced team like the Steelers back into it.  Baker was cool and focused the entire game, Hunt will be uber motivated, Landry's always tough.

 

Maybe their youth catches up this week but I think it'll at least be a tight match.  That's a talented Cleveland squad who have had a tough time with Covid and injuries but are finally getting healthy.

I just don't think their defense can hold up vs. KC's passing attack. They have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, and KC has arguably the best passing offense. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Point of interest to me:

About 5:20 in starts talking about the Bills Defense.  Says the Colts have balance, and we couldn't go overboard protecting our front in the run because the Colts pass.  Says they exposed us with the same 3 pass patterns all day - a shallow cross underneath, then either a slot corner route or a crosser that came from the other side and ended up in the same place.  Says they attacked the same two areas all day, 15 yds down the field just on the edge of the numbers, and the crosser, and if one wasn't open the other was.  (I'm thinking this was detecting and dissecting the edges of our zones). Says when we played two deep safeties in the 4th, the Colts exploited that and ripped off deep runs.  

.

 

 

This is the key. Ultimately we are limited by our personnel against a balanced team like the Colts. We have to pick our poison. I think the coaches did what they could by limiting the damage to yards and not points. Our LBs and front 4 will always leak yards against zone runs - maybe having Lotuleilei and an improved Epenesa can help us next season. But Beane has some work to do with both 4 man pass rushes as well as zone run defense this offseason. Not many teams can do to us what the Colts did.The one team that can gash us with a scheme similar to the Colts is the LA Rams. But fortunately Goff is not likely to play as well as Rivers. 

 

Totally agree that it was all Josh. We have a transcendental QB who can cover significant weaknesses and win a game on his own. The coaches did well with in-game adjustments to keep the plan Josh centric and did not feature trick plays with McKenzie etc.

 

I expect to see more AJ Klein and maybe even Dodson next week.