Jump to content

538 Gives Bills 65% chance of winning against Ravens and model says point spread should be Bills -4.5


Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

Bills have lowest chance among any of the favorites.  For what it is worth, Baltimore was favored against Tennessee in their models with a 57% chance of winning.

 

image.thumb.png.3ec8bf374d2e0ebf3eef3cd7b0b9496d.png

Edited by Big Turk
  • Like (+1) 2
  • Thank you (+1) 2
  • Big Turk changed the title to 538 Gives Bills 65% chance of winning against Ravens and model says point spread should be Bills -4.5
Posted

Ehhh. It's something I guess. Im pretty sure they also agreed with Reich goin for it on 4th and goal at the 4. Take it for the grain of salt its worth.

Posted

If you go to sportsline.com they have the spread at Buffalo -2.5 with the over/under at 50.   The simulated score at the moment is Baltimore 25, Buffalo 24.  So they are stating that you should bet Baltimore with the spread.

 

Posted

I wouldn't lose too much sleep over what Nate Silver has to say on the topic.  Dunkirk Don has about as good a track record as he does

  • Like (+1) 1
  • Haha (+1) 1
Posted
27 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

After the election, everything 538 does needs to be taken with a grain of salt

 

I mean - reliance upon polling data and trends is always a challenge.  Certain polls traditionally are right - but you're still extrapolating a ton of data from a small sample size.

 

The high number of absentee and mail-in ballots in general made this an incredibly hard election to project.

  • Like (+1) 1
Posted
Just now, dneveu said:

 

I mean - reliance upon polling data and trends is always a challenge.  Certain polls traditionally are right - but you're still extrapolating a ton of data from a small sample size.

 

The high number of absentee and mail-in ballots in general made this an incredibly hard election to project.

You're right, and models always have the caveat that they are drawing from the data they have and there is risk of an incomplete set.

 

But maaaaaaan those margins were off

Posted
1 minute ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

You're right, and models always have the caveat that they are drawing from the data they have and there is risk of an incomplete set.

 

But maaaaaaan those margins were off

They nailed the Georgia senate races.

Posted

this is interesting and hopeful ! 

regardless the Bills are in the top 4 and are capable of winning this and every game.  it passes the eye test IMHO.  They all have chinks in their armor.  

Posted
36 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I mean - reliance upon polling data and trends is always a challenge.  Certain polls traditionally are right - but you're still extrapolating a ton of data from a small sample size.

 

The high number of absentee and mail-in ballots in general made this an incredibly hard election to project.

They also predicted that Biden could win even with a strong polling error in favor of Trump, which is what happened. But some of the win projections in individual states was way off. Why is Wisconsin so hard to poll haha?

  • Like (+1) 1
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

If you don’t like this model, just find another one...

 

lol indeed...

 

Speaking of... - ESPN's FPI has the Ravens at 51% to win.  

Edited by BobChalmers
  • Like (+1) 2
Posted
2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Bills have lowest chance among any of the favorites.  For what it is worth, Baltimore was favored against Tennessee in their models with a 57% chance of winning.

 

image.thumb.png.3ec8bf374d2e0ebf3eef3cd7b0b9496d.png

 

I think the Bills should be favorites but not by nearly 2 to 1 odds.   I see this as a 55-45 odds type of deal.   

Posted

That 79/21 split for KC vs. Cleveland seems about right.

 

Our 65% chance sounds good to me.  I'll take that.

 

 

  • Like (+1) 1
  • Agree 1
×
×
  • Create New...