A perfect storm yesterday for the Bills D

[dave mcbride]

After some thought, here's why I think the Bills' defense found themselves in a perfect storm yesterday. Make no mistake about it: they were absolutely shredded, and Indy's failures were more about them failing to make plays than anything the Bills did. They had seven drops, and Rivers missed a wide-open Pittman that 3 times out of 4 would have resulted in a TD. Rivers played extremely well, but he also missed a key slant to a wide open WR near the goal line that would have converted a third down (right before the missed FG). 

 

Anyway, Indy has arguably the best offensive line in the league (it features two 2020 all-pros). The Bills' front four is really pretty mediocre, and they only get sacks/pressures against a) teams with weaknesses along the o-line or b) QBs who take too long and struggle to read complex zone packages (i.e., Tua, Drew Lock, Darnold). When rushing four, the Bills were hopeless. Consequently, they blitzed a lot, but Rivers, who is really good (and made sure to get to the line early and figure out over the course of 15 seconds what the Bills were probably doing), made them pay pretty much every time because he almost always had a quick and effective solution to the blitz -- usually a shallow crosser in a zone vacated by a blitzer (but not always; a few were deeper). The combination of getting no pressure with the front four and facing a QB who can chew up blitzes and spit them out meant that the Colts had answers on basically every third or fourth down, and they usually connected. The only times they didn't were because of a bad play call (pitch out near the goal line) or failures of execution by the Colts in plays that should have been executed given the play design's overall success. The one third down stop that was impressive was the near-pick by Hyde on Indy's first possession of the game.

 

At the root of it all is the weakness of the defensive line vs. good offenses quarterbacked by HOF-level vets (of which there are a bunch in the NFL now). They are all decent d-linemen, but they don't have either an interior or edge game wrecker (watching the Rams play yesterday really brought that home). Ed Oliver was supposed to be that guy, but he isn't. He's a starting-level DT and pretty solid, but he plays like a second or third round pick rather than a top ten selection. Addison, Hughes, Epinosa, etc. are all decent players who can play in the NFL and occasionally make big plays, but they aren't good enough to take over games or dominate good o-linemen. And they certainly can't overcome the sort of QB-line-RB combo that the Colts presented. There's a reason why KC traded for Frank Clark last year -- Reid recognized the dire need for an explosive pass rusher in the playoffs. They didn't have a game wrecker coming off the edge, and Clark is that guy. The Bills are a great team this year, but they do need at least one game wrecking pass rusher if their D--which ranked 16th--is to move up to the next level.    

 

Final comment: this is a defense that will really struggle vs. NO, GB, and TN given their QBs, o-lines, and skill players. KC is a bit odd because their line has played pretty poorly lately. That said, they have Mahomes, who covers up so much. Tampa has Brady and is absolutely loaded with weapons, but their o-line really isn't that good.   

 

Edited January 10, 2021 by dave mcbride

[SCBills]

GB lost Bakhtiari, so let’s see how that OL looks moving forward.  
 

I don’t think Tennessee has a great OL.  It’s certainly not close to Indy’s...  Teams have gotten to Tannehill, and he struggles when they do.   Of course, Tannehill is mobile, which presents another set of issues to gameplan against. 

[Frat-Train]

I feel ya, but I’m more of the thought that a team with a top 10 offense and defense threw their best punch at us and we took it, shook it off and threw them through a table.  We can dice it any way though.  This is exactly what I wanted to see from this team.  That’s the one thing we didn’t see last year, is bouncing back to get the W.  This team’s heart and ability to play with anyone hasn’t been seen around here in a minute.

[Brand J]

The defense needs a heartbeat somewhere in the front 7. A guy who’s an emotional leader and always has to be accounted for. Those players don’t grow on trees, so like QB, I suspect they’ll be looking for awhile.

[Green Lightning]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

After some thought, here's why I think the Bills' defense found themselves in a perfect storm yesterday. Make no mistake about it: they were absolutely shredded, and Indy's failures were more about them failing to make plays than anything the Bills did. They had seven drops, and Rivers missed a wide-open Pittman that 3 times out of 4 would have resulted in a TD. Rivers played extremely well, but he also missed a key slant to a wide open WR near the goal line that would have converted a third down (right before the missed FG). 

 

Anyway, Indy has arguably the best offensive line in the league (it features two 2020 all-pros). The Bills' front four is really pretty mediocre, and they only get sacks/pressures against a) teams with weaknesses along the o-line or b) QBs who take to long and struggle to read complex zone packages (i.e., Tua, Drew Lock, Darnold). When rushing four, the Bills were hopeless. Consequently, they blitzed a lot, but Rivers, who is really good (and made sure to get to the line early and figure out over the course of 15 seconds what the Bills were probably doing), made them pay pretty much every time because he almost always had a quick and effective solution to the blitz -- usually a shallow crosser in a zone vacated by a blitzer (but not always; a few were deeper). The combination of getting no pressure with the front four and facing a QB who can chew up blitzes and spit them out meant that the Colts had answers on basically every third or fourth down, and they usually connected. The only times they didn't were because of a bad play call (pitch out near the goal line) or failures of execution by the Colts in plays that should have been executed given the play design's overall success. The one third down stop that was impressive was the near-pick by Hyde on Indy's first possession of the game.

 

At the root of it all is the weakness of the defensive line vs. good offenses quarterbacked by HOF-level vets (of which there are a bunch in the NFL now). They are all decent d-linemen, but they don't have either an interior or edge game wrecker (watching the Rams play yesterday really brought that home). Ed Oliver was supposed to be that guy, but he isn't. He's a starting-level DT and pretty solid, but he plays like a second or third round pick rather than a top ten selection. Addison, Hughes, Epinosa, etc. are all decent players who can play in the NFL and occasionally make big plays, but they aren't good enough to take over games or dominate good o-linemen. And they certainly can't overcome the sort of QB-line-RB combo that the Colts presented. There's a reason why KC traded for Frank Clark last year -- Reid recognized the dire need for an explosive pass rusher in the playoffs. They didn't have a game wrecker coming off the edge, and Clark is that guy. The Bills are a great team this year, but they do need at least one game wrecking pass rusher if their D--which ranked 16th--is to move up to the next level.    

 

Final comment: this is a defense that will really struggle vs. NO, GB, and TN given their QBs, o-lines, and skill players. KC is a bit odd because their line has played pretty poorly lately. That said, they have Mahomes, who covers up so much. Tampa has Brady and is absolutely loaded with weapons, but their o-line really isn't that good.   

 

Solid take and I agree. We lack elite in our DL and front 7 actually. That said I also think we sold out the scheme to stop the run and challenge Rivers to beat us, and he almost did. Beane will focus on D next year and maybe add another OL.

[clayboy54]

31 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

After some thought, here's why I think the Bills' defense found themselves in a perfect storm yesterday. Make no mistake about it: they were absolutely shredded, and Indy's failures were more about them failing to make plays than anything the Bills did. They had seven drops, and Rivers missed a wide-open Pittman that 3 times out of 4 would have resulted in a TD. Rivers played extremely well, but he also missed a key slant to a wide open WR near the goal line that would have converted a third down (right before the missed FG). 

 

Anyway, Indy has arguably the best offensive line in the league (it features two 2020 all-pros). The Bills' front four is really pretty mediocre, and they only get sacks/pressures against a) teams with weaknesses along the o-line or b) QBs who take to long and struggle to read complex zone packages (i.e., Tua, Drew Lock, Darnold). When rushing four, the Bills were hopeless. Consequently, they blitzed a lot, but Rivers, who is really good (and made sure to get to the line early and figure out over the course of 15 seconds what the Bills were probably doing), made them pay pretty much every time because he almost always had a quick and effective solution to the blitz -- usually a shallow crosser in a zone vacated by a blitzer (but not always; a few were deeper). The combination of getting no pressure with the front four and facing a QB who can chew up blitzes and spit them out meant that the Colts had answers on basically every third or fourth down, and they usually connected. The only times they didn't were because of a bad play call (pitch out near the goal line) or failures of execution by the Colts in plays that should have been executed given the play design's overall success. The one third down stop that was impressive was the near-pick by Hyde on Indy's first possession of the game.

 

At the root of it all is the weakness of the defensive line vs. good offenses quarterbacked by HOF-level vets (of which there are a bunch in the NFL now). They are all decent d-linemen, but they don't have either an interior or edge game wrecker (watching the Rams play yesterday really brought that home). Ed Oliver was supposed to be that guy, but he isn't. He's a starting-level DT and pretty solid, but he plays like a second or third round pick rather than a top ten selection. Addison, Hughes, Epinosa, etc. are all decent players who can play in the NFL and occasionally make big plays, but they aren't good enough to take over games or dominate good o-linemen. And they certainly can't overcome the sort of QB-line-RB combo that the Colts presented. There's a reason why KC traded for Frank Clark last year -- Reid recognized the dire need for an explosive pass rusher in the playoffs. They didn't have a game wrecker coming off the edge, and Clark is that guy. The Bills are a great team this year, but they do need at least one game wrecking pass rusher if their D--which ranked 16th--is to move up to the next level.    

 

Final comment: this is a defense that will really struggle vs. NO, GB, and TN given their QBs, o-lines, and skill players. KC is a bit odd because their line has played pretty poorly lately. That said, they have Mahomes, who covers up so much. Tampa has Brady and is absolutely loaded with weapons, but their o-line really isn't that good.   

 

Well Dave, I think you’ve missed the mark on the DL analysis. The Bills’ game plan was to sell out to stop the run. They held Taylor to well under 100 yards after he had like 240 last week. You know as well as the rest of us that by doing that they weren’t going to generate pressure. What they were telling Indy was, “I dare you to beat us over the top.” Indeed, they hit a few, primarily to Pittman, but it was their TEs that hurt us.

 

The postgame analysis should be, “did the defensive game plan work?” I am not ready to answer that yet, other than to say we won. My thoughts are that it was worth it because in the end our O scored more than theydid. But like the KC game, the Bills do not look comfortable when they get away from their standard game plans. Both on offense and defense, they have not “looked” comfortable or particularly good in these specialty schemes.

 

Moving forward, I would prefer both Frazier and Daboll stick to the schemes that got us here and play our game. I am perfectly fine living and dying with what we do well. Overall, I think we can score enough points to overcome our weaknesses as-is. As they say, dance with who brung ya. If it means shootouts, I am okay with that, too. I hope they will not “out-smart” themselves with custom game plans that play away from our strengths.

 

As some have already said, yesterday we played their game, not ours. Beginning next week, we must play our game and win or lose with that. With a full offseason, we can install alternate schemes and get comfortable running them then.

Edited January 10, 2021 by clayboy54

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

Tennessee picked our defense apart last time we played.  We focused so much on Henry, that Tannehill just nickel and dimes us at will.  

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Tennessee picked our defense apart last time we played.  We focused so much on Henry, that Tannehill just nickel and dimes us at will.  

Hesitant to make excuses based on yesterday’s performance, but we were also the walking wounded on defense last time we played the Titans. 

[Bermuda Triangle]

Just now, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Tennessee picked our defense apart last time we played.  We focused so much on Henry, that Tannehill just nickel and dimes us at will.  

Bad reads on RPO hurt us as well.

 

Our pass coverage was poor as well, but I think that I may have lined up at CB for a few plays that game.  Cam Lewis started that game, and was injured early, correct?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

31 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

After some thought, here's why I think the Bills' defense found themselves in a perfect storm yesterday. Make no mistake about it: they were absolutely shredded, and Indy's failures were more about them failing to make plays than anything the Bills did. They had seven drops, and Rivers missed a wide-open Pittman that 3 times out of 4 would have resulted in a TD. Rivers played extremely well, but he also missed a key slant to a wide open WR near the goal line that would have converted a third down (right before the missed FG). 

 

Anyway, Indy has arguably the best offensive line in the league (it features two 2020 all-pros). The Bills' front four is really pretty mediocre, and they only get sacks/pressures against a) teams with weaknesses along the o-line or b) QBs who take to long and struggle to read complex zone packages (i.e., Tua, Drew Lock, Darnold). When rushing four, the Bills were hopeless. Consequently, they blitzed a lot, but Rivers, who is really good (and made sure to get to the line early and figure out over the course of 15 seconds what the Bills were probably doing), made them pay pretty much every time because he almost always had a quick and effective solution to the blitz -- usually a shallow crosser in a zone vacated by a blitzer (but not always; a few were deeper). The combination of getting no pressure with the front four and facing a QB who can chew up blitzes and spit them out meant that the Colts had answers on basically every third or fourth down, and they usually connected. The only times they didn't were because of a bad play call (pitch out near the goal line) or failures of execution by the Colts in plays that should have been executed given the play design's overall success. The one third down stop that was impressive was the near-pick by Hyde on Indy's first possession of the game.

 

At the root of it all is the weakness of the defensive line vs. good offenses quarterbacked by HOF-level vets (of which there are a bunch in the NFL now). They are all decent d-linemen, but they don't have either an interior or edge game wrecker (watching the Rams play yesterday really brought that home). Ed Oliver was supposed to be that guy, but he isn't. He's a starting-level DT and pretty solid, but he plays like a second or third round pick rather than a top ten selection. Addison, Hughes, Epinosa, etc. are all decent players who can play in the NFL and occasionally make big plays, but they aren't good enough to take over games or dominate good o-linemen. And they certainly can't overcome the sort of QB-line-RB combo that the Colts presented. There's a reason why KC traded for Frank Clark last year -- Reid recognized the dire need for an explosive pass rusher in the playoffs. They didn't have a game wrecker coming off the edge, and Clark is that guy. The Bills are a great team this year, but they do need at least one game wrecking pass rusher if their D--which ranked 16th--is to move up to the next level.    

 

Final comment: this is a defense that will really struggle vs. NO, GB, and TN given their QBs, o-lines, and skill players. KC is a bit odd because their line has played pretty poorly lately. That said, they have Mahomes, who covers up so much. Tampa has Brady and is absolutely loaded with weapons, but their o-line really isn't that good.   

 

 

These are all good points.  It's totally valid to point out that we lack a "game wrecker" on DL.

 

Counterpoint:  I think some of River's misses were caused by hurries to avoid the pressure.   Some of the "failures of execution" were forced in one or another way.  And we had some sound, impressive "stuffs" that were game-changing.  And, the refs have something to do with it: they were most certainly allowing offensive holding, which worked against us at first when we weren't doing so much of it but Indy was.

 

My bottom line is that I think some fans here (not you, this is a really well-thought and well-written take) were "eating the cheese" which had us strongly favored over Indy.  Indy has a very very very good coach, a savvy vet QB, a great OL and a much better run game than their overall standing indicates because it took about 1/3 of the season to rev up.  From Week 11 on, Taylor has been a capitol-B Beast.  Reich came up with a game plan that was very well designed to exploit his team's strengths, and our weaknesses.

My personal take on TN is that we beat ourselves in that game.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

These are all good points.  It's totally valid to point out that we lack a "game wrecker" on DL.

 

Counterpoint:  I think some of River's misses were caused by hurries to avoid the pressure.   Some of the "failures of execution" were forced in one or another way.  And we had some sound, impressive "stuffs" that were game-changing.  And, the refs have something to do with it: they were most certainly allowing offensive holding, which worked against us at first when we weren't doing so much of it but Indy was.

 

My bottom line is that I think some fans here (not you, this is a really well-thought and well-written take) were "eating the cheese" which had us strongly favored over Indy.  Indy has a very very very good coach, a savvy vet QB, a great OL and a much better run game than their overall standing indicates because it took about 1/3 of the season to rev up.  From Week 11 on, Taylor has been a capitol-B Beast.  Reich came up with a game plan that was very well designed to exploit his team's strengths, and our weaknesses.

My personal take on TN is that we beat ourselves in that game.

Oh, I absolutely agree that Indy is a really good and well-coached team. They are a tough matchup for just about any team. If they had a normal camp, I expect they would have ended up 12-4 -- that is, they would have beat Jax at home in game one of the season. It's mind blowing they lost to them given how good they are and how bad Jax is.

[Bills Fan of St Augustine]

I think the Colts exposed our weakness on the line on both sides of the ball. Losing Star has a bigger impact than I thought it would, obviously not from a pass rush stand point, but as clayboy pointed out, we needed to go all in in order to contain Taylor. With Star it wouldn't be as difficult. A good  OL will continue to expose our DL/front seven. I'd like to see Edmonds be more consistent as a force in the middle. He is still awfully young. As far as the OL, we really have a problem run blocking. Pass pro has been great, but there were at least three plays on 2/3rd and short that Moss was destroyed and we couldn't pick up the 1st. At the GL we have to resort to clever gadget plays. Needs to be addressed in the offseason. I also think we won another game that we might have lost in the past. That's a good sign and the results of the coaching. I think I'd prefer the Steelers over the Titans or Ravens at this point. Just my HO.

[Bermuda Triangle]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Oh, I absolutely agree that Indy is a really good and well-coached team. They are a tough matchup for just about any team. If they had a normal camp, I expect they would have ended up 12-4 -- that is, they would have beat Jax at home in game one of the season. It's mind blowing they lost to them given how good they are and how bad Jax is.

Even last week, the IND-JAX game was a one score game, with 4:00 left in the 4th quarter.  It was a must-win game for IND, and JAX was playing with their backup QB and without their RB1 and WR1.  

[dave mcbride]

18 minutes ago, clayboy54 said:

Well Dave, I think you’ve missed the mark on the DL analysis. The Bills’ game plan was to sell out to stop the run. They held Taylor to well under 100 yards after he had like 240 last week. You know as well as the rest of us that by doing that they weren’t going to generate pressure. What they were telling Indy was, “I dare you to beat us over the top.” Indeed, they hit a few, primarily to Pittman, but it was their TEs that hurt us.

 

The postgame analysis should be, “did the defensive game plan work?” I am not ready to answer that yet, other than to say we won. My thoughts are that it was worth it because in the end our O scored more than theydid. But like the KC game, the Bills do not look comfortable when they get away from their standard game plans. Both on offense and defense, they have not “looked” comfortable or particularly good in these specialty schemes.

 

Moving forward, I would prefer both Frazier and Daboll stick to the schemes that got us here and play our game. I am perfectly fine living and dying with what we do well. Overall, I think we can score enough points to overcome our weaknesses as-is. As they say, dance with who brung ya. If it means shootouts, I am okay with that, too. I hope they will not “out-smart” themselves with custom game plans that play away from our strengths.

 

As some have already said, yesterday we played their game, not ours. Beginning next week, we must play our game and win or lose with that. With a full offseason, we can install alternate schemes and get comfortable running them then.

Well, selling out to stop the run didn't work. They gave up 163 rushing yards on 30 carries (5.4 ypc), and none of those runs were long qb scrambles that skewed the running stats. It was a legit beatdown in the running game. Anyway, their front four was dominated most of the game, although they made the occasional play here and there. Giving up 472 yards and allowing them to have the ball for over 34 minutes is never good. Indy got into Bills territory on every possession save for the kneel down at the end of the first half. 

 

Still, they won. Can't argue with that!  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Tennessee picked our defense apart last time we played.  We focused so much on Henry, that Tannehill just nickel and dimes us at will.  

 

Keep in mind that much of the damage TN did to us was self-inflicted; they started drives at the Buffalo 16, 30, 12, and 18 yd line.  Meanwhile, we struggled to sustain drives with 3 3-and-outs.  We were also depleted at CB with Tre White and Levi Wallace both out, with Milano out and Edmunds still working his way back from injury, and with trying to plug Dodson in for Milano (and Klein still trying to figure things out).

 

I think the "shut down Henry and accept some damage in the passing game" might work a bit less well with  our starting CB and LB and IF we don't gift them such great field position continually - it would look a lot more like yesterday's Colts game where they move the ball on us, but we also move the ball on them and it's a close hard-fought game.   (At least, that's the hope).  The two long drives Tenn managed were at the end of the half, and in the 4Q when the D was worn down.

 

 

[fergie's ire]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

These are all good points.  It's totally valid to point out that we lack a "game wrecker" on DL.

 

Counterpoint:  I think some of River's misses were caused by hurries to avoid the pressure.   Some of the "failures of execution" were forced in one or another way.  And we had some sound, impressive "stuffs" that were game-changing.  And, the refs have something to do with it: they were most certainly allowing offensive holding, which worked against us at first when we weren't doing so much of it but Indy was.

 

My bottom line is that I think some fans here (not you, this is a really well-thought and well-written take) were "eating the cheese" which had us strongly favored over Indy.  Indy has a very very very good coach, a savvy vet QB, a great OL and a much better run game than their overall standing indicates because it took about 1/3 of the season to rev up.  From Week 11 on, Taylor has been a capitol-B Beast.  Reich came up with a game plan that was very well designed to exploit his team's strengths, and our weaknesses.

My personal take on TN is that we beat ourselves in that game.

I agree.  Those errors were not unforced and at the start of the 4th quarter the Colts had only scored 10 points and the Bills were leading by 14.  The plan was working.  The 4th quarter did not go well...let Colts score too quickly and it reminded of some Bills games earlier in the year.  In fact, it was a lot like the Cardinals game only Josh gave up a sack/fumble (though recovered) instead of the interceptions and the defense defensed a hail mary well.  So, they played a good team...in the playoffs...and came up with a win.  It was actually a very impressive team effort.

[Rubes]

5 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Well, selling out to stop the run didn't work. They gave up 163 rushing yards on 30 carries (5.4 ypc), and none of those runs were long qb scrambles that skewed the running stats. It was a legit beatdown in the running game. Anyway, their front four was dominated most of the game, although they made the occasional play here and there. Giving up 472 yards and allowing them to have the ball for over 34 minutes is never good. Indy got into Bills territory on every possession save for the kneel down at the end of the first half. 

 

I'm not sure I would totally say that. I think they did fairly well stopping the run and holding them to 10 points through 3 quarters. It's when Indy fell behind by 14 points in the 4th that things changed. The Bills expected more passing, and Indy countered with excellent run calls. Combine that with poor tackling, and they churned out most of their running yards in the 4th Q.

 

 

[Nextmanup]

I don't disagree with anything mentioned in the OP.

 

But I would argue we knew a lot of this prior to yesterday's game, and the real failure was the offense being unable to get into a groove, moving down the field, and scoring touchdowns.  We did get to 27 at the end, which ain't bad, but this was not the offense we have seen for the last month +.  Of course, we were also playing a very solid team.

 

Don't rely on our D to win games!  The Offense has to put 30+ on the board and see which opponents can keep up.  That's how we are going to advance in the playoffs.

 

Too early for this, but in the off-season, No. 1 need on D is an edge rushing monster.  No. 1 need on Offense is a Rob Gronkowski type of TE, if we can find one.

 

The RB position probably needs upgrading, but I would not commit any serious assets to that pursuit.

 

Big body on D line and real Mike LB finalize our needs IMO, but not before edge rusher.

 

 

 

 

[billykay]

1 hour ago, Green Lightning said:

Solid take and I agree. We lack elite in our DL and front 7 actually. That said I also think we sold out the scheme to stop the run and challenge Rivers to beat us, and he almost did. Beane will focus on D next year and maybe add another OL.

If we sold out to stop the run, it certainly didn't work.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

40 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Keep in mind that much of the damage TN did to us was self-inflicted; they started drives at the Buffalo 16, 30, 12, and 18 yd line.  Meanwhile, we struggled to sustain drives with 3 3-and-outs.  We were also depleted at CB with Tre White and Levi Wallace both out, with Milano out and Edmunds still working his way back from injury, and with trying to plug Dodson in for Milano (and Klein still trying to figure things out).

 

I think the "shut down Henry and accept some damage in the passing game" might work a bit less well with  our starting CB and LB and IF we don't gift them such great field position continually - it would look a lot more like yesterday's Colts game where they move the ball on us, but we also move the ball on them and it's a close hard-fought game.   (At least, that's the hope).  The two long drives Tenn managed were at the end of the half, and in the 4Q when the D was worn down.

 

 

I just remember Tannehill picking us apart right behind the linebackers because they were being sucked in to stop the run.