BITE ME Posted January 5, 2021 Posted January 5, 2021 (edited) Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned? Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad. What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL. Patriots 9-7 Bills 8-8 Jets 7-9 Dolphins 6-10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo Edited January 5, 2021 by BITE ME 3
PromoTheRobot Posted January 5, 2021 Posted January 5, 2021 There was one prediction, SI maybe, that had us going 6-10. 1
WEATHER DOT COM Posted January 5, 2021 Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, PromoTheRobot said: There was one prediction, SI maybe, that had us going 6-10. but how good is SI at picking... oh nevermind
TBBills Posted January 5, 2021 Posted January 5, 2021 (edited) Who takes predictions seriously? Isn't the main word to not take it seriously in the "prediction" part? Edited January 5, 2021 by TBBills
Domitian Posted January 5, 2021 Posted January 5, 2021 (edited) 9 minutes ago, BITE ME said: Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned? Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad. What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL. Patriots 9-7 Bills 8-8 Jets 7-9 Dolphins 6-10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo The predictions are based on a model that uses historical data. If a team or its players play better (Allen), or worse (Dallas), than their historical levels, that will throw predictions like this off. Obviously it also can't account for major stars getting injured either. It's not a crystal ball, it's just a statistical model. Edited January 5, 2021 by Domitian 4
ProcessAccepted Posted January 5, 2021 Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said: but how good is SI at picking... oh nevermind But how good is SI at ________? Unless your talking about sucking the answer is pretty bad. Sad since they were a decent outlet in the past. 1
BuffaloBobs Posted January 5, 2021 Posted January 5, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Domitian said: The predictions are based on a model that uses historical data. If a team or its players play better (Allen), or worse (Dallas), than their historical levels, that will throw predictions like this off. Obviously it also can't account for major stars getting injured either. It's not a crystal ball, it's just a statistical model. That's true of all models and a fair point. It still doesn't explain how they could only predict two teams above ten wins. That's historically completely unpredicted and suggests a major problem with their modeling. Edited January 5, 2021 by BuffaloBobs double post edit issue 1
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 5, 2021 Posted January 5, 2021 43 minutes ago, BITE ME said: Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned? Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad. What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL. Patriots 9-7 Bills 8-8 Jets 7-9 Dolphins 6-10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo Tough schedule made it seem like 9 or 10 would be enough to win the division pre-season.
Mr. WEO Posted January 5, 2021 Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, BITE ME said: Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned? Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad. What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL. Patriots 9-7 Bills 8-8 Jets 7-9 Dolphins 6-10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo Why didn't you call them out in August?
SoCal Deek Posted January 5, 2021 Posted January 5, 2021 Why is this an issue? Predictions are just made for fun. I don't know that anyone places any significant weight on any of them. The only reason to give one more credence than another is if the author has a good track record. It's really no different than political polls.
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted January 5, 2021 Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Domitian said: The predictions are based on a model that uses historical data. If a team or its players play better (Allen), or worse (Dallas), than their historical levels, that will throw predictions like this off. Obviously it also can't account for major stars getting injured either. It's not a crystal ball, it's just a statistical model. What's it good for?
BfloBillsFan Posted January 5, 2021 Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said: There was one prediction, SI maybe, that had us going 6-10. I assume it won't be the same going into next season.
Reader Posted January 5, 2021 Posted January 5, 2021 Yes...let us bash the website that lists Allen as the best QB in the league. 538 QB rankings
LabattBlue Posted January 5, 2021 Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, BITE ME said: Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned? Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad. What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL. Patriots 9-7 Bills 8-8 Jets 7-9 Dolphins 6-10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo How do you sleep at night? Have you tried 539 or 540 instead?
Doc Brown Posted January 5, 2021 Posted January 5, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, BITE ME said: Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned? Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad. What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL. Patriots 9-7 Bills 8-8 Jets 7-9 Dolphins 6-10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo They don't "pick" elections. They give a percentage of how likely x candidate is to win off of y candidate based on an aggregate of polls and other historical voting data. This weekend the Bills have a 76% chance of beating the Colts based off the criteria they use in their model. If the Colts win it means they caught a lucky spade to complete their flush on the river. Edited January 5, 2021 by Doc Brown
billsbackto81 Posted January 5, 2021 Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said: There was one prediction, SI maybe, that had us going 6-10. Peter King had the Dolphins winning the division😆😆 1
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