Anyone else get annoyed when people say Josh Allen’s first 2 seasons were terrible?

[Ramza86]

Meh. Year 1 had me worried because of how poor he was with short passing ball placement. 

 

Year 2 he was miles better at it...I knew the sky was the limit for him cause it showed he wanted to get better at everything and he was willing to learn. 

[Domitian]

No.  Most people weren't watching the Bills, so they didn't see the raw ability he had and all the running he was doing.  From a traditional QB standpoint, passing, he was pretty terrible, especially rookie year for a multitude of reasons.  Even last year, while much improved and his talent becoming even more obvious, statistically he was on the same level as Sam Darnold, Mitch Trubisky, and Daniel Jones all guys who I think most of us would claim, are terrible.  I think we all know he's wasn't terrible, but it to someone outside the Bills bubble, I totally understand why that was the picture painted.  Plus, also keep in mind that the sports media especially will ALWAYS resort to sensationalizing and hyperbole.  By making Allen's first two seasons seem like he was horrendous, it makes his ascension this year all the more newsworthy and gets the clicks and likes.

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

I got your point. Everyone has. The three of us are disagreeing with your point.

 

Of course you can separate context. Not perfectly, of course. But you can watch the throws, see if they're getting where they need to be and see if the decision to throw there was poor. And Allen had a lot of poor throws and bad decisions that year, a lot. Mixed in were some terrific throws.

 

And I couldn't agree more that he was raw as hell. He said so himself in his Albert Breer interview. Beside the point, though. Performance isn't about justifications or what you are. It's strictly what you do. I think we're all saying that yeah, he really was terrible that first year in the pass game, though his 2019 performance couldn't be called that with any degree of legitimacy.

 

And I get your point. Everyone does. You can separate context from results; however, I have no idea why you would want to in any kind of legitimate analysis. When you factor in all of the variables, yes, Allen had some poor throws that first year that, in context, were simply because they were poor throws. However, IMO, Allen came in with this narrative that he was innacurate and every throw the kid made was dissected through that lens.

 

Taking everything into consideration, I do not believe that he was a terrible QB in 2018. There are plenty of people who feel the same way so, no, not everyone is saying he was a terrible QB.

 

Intelligent people can disagree. You might be right, I might be right, or the truth may lie somewhere between. This is just my opinion based on my evaluation of everything I could think of to look at, and I made the same argument back then as I do now.

 

Cheers

[BillsSbSoon]

It does bother me some. The narrative that he was woefully inaccurate in particular. Yeah he did have accuracy issues but he it was never as bad as it was made out to be imo. He dealt with one drop after another going back to wyoming.

His rookie year you could see that he was going to keep getting better. And then last year we saw a jump. This year speaks for itself

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

What was also really encouraging was seeing the improvement. His first few games of 2019 he seemed to be the same guy, performing at the same poor level. But after that Pats game, there was a very real improvement.

 

I actually likes his first few performances of 2019. There were some flukey turnovers against the Jets but I thought he played a good game that day, a great game against the Giants and a decent game against Cincy. Then came the meltdown against the Patriots but it was the run immediately after that where I wavered on him... after that Pats game there was a run of 5 games where I only really thought he played well once (against Miami.... he always crushes Miami :D) and he got too safe with the ball and in my view it was likely a bit of an over correction by the staff and Josh. I have said it many times I hated his performance at Cleveland where he was an indecisive, ball holding Quarterback scared to make a mistake even though if you look purely at the box score you go "oh highest passing yards of the season" there were receivers wide open all over the field that day and Josh didn't make enough plays. They sensed it a bit too and that was the week McDermott called him in and told him to play fearless and that was I think the point at which the right balance between risk and reward clicked. Coming out of that Cleveland game it was 20 passing touchdowns in 21 career games. it is 47 in 24 since. 

[Mikey152]

I think that the harsh comments about his career leading up this year are a sneaky way for most of the pundits to save face:  They weren't "wrong" about Josh Allen...he DID suck. But the Bills coaches did everything right and Stephon Diggs is the man and yada yada yada.  

 

Not that any of that is wrong, but they still have a hard time giving Josh Allen any of the credit.  I think THAT is why it is frustrating.  They completely gloss over the most important part...Josh was never a JAG. All the coaching and Diggs and everything else worked BECAUSE Josh is and always has been good enough to take those steps.

[FastFreddy22]

What annoys me the most is when I have picked apart tuas rookie season a fin fan will jump in and say he has been better then Allen in his rookie year....First off allens progression is unheard of so go ahead and bank on that also Allen was a different breed of human.  You could see how raw he was but also how much passion and drive to win.  Their is no comparison in my eyes Tua is a better comparison to Tyrod.

[Cheektowaga Chad]

32 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

I think that the harsh comments about his career leading up this year are a sneaky way for most of the pundits to save face:  They weren't "wrong" about Josh Allen...he DID suck. But the Bills coaches did everything right and Stephon Diggs is the man and yada yada yada.  

 

Not that any of that is wrong, but they still have a hard time giving Josh Allen any of the credit.  I think THAT is why it is frustrating.  They completely gloss over the most important part...Josh was never a JAG. All the coaching and Diggs and everything else worked BECAUSE Josh is and always has been good enough to take those steps.

Might have found out why the media likes to drive the conversation with out context about allens first two seasons as terrible - to make sure people know they were "wrong" about him in the draft

 

Anyone that watched allen his first 2 seasons could see he was developing into an above average QB, where it would be debated if the bills should extend or move on

[Real McClappy]

12 minutes ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

Might have found out why the media likes to drive the conversation with out context about allens first two seasons as terrible - to make sure people know they were "wrong" about him in the draft

 

Anyone that watched allen his first 2 seasons could see he was developing into an above average QB, where it would be debated if the bills should extend or move on

I don't think he was ever supposed to start season 1 behind one of the worst O-lines and WR groups I have ever seen. He was forced YR1 and it was like being in Wyoming still as a rookie QB in the NFL. He did learn some stuff and flashed some amazing skills YR1 though. YR2 with a competent O-line and better WRs,  you could clearly see the progression. YR3  I knew he'd be better,  just not this much locked in so fast and reading D's the way he is. It's truly impressive!

 

It's scary to think what YR4+ can bring. Has Allen even hit his ceiling yet? This is an absolute thing of beauty that I (and 99% of yall) have been waiting for 20+ years now.  Even if Josh is at his ceiling now and continues to play at this level we are winning a SB and soon.

Edited January 5, 2021 by Real McNasty

[BaaadThingsMan]

He wasn't perfect but I could see what was to become, it was obvious he was the most talented QB the Bills have had since Kelly right away imo

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

I think calling it BS is a little aggressive/sensitive.  The guy said year three when it was year two.  Maybe he was purposely lying as you insinuate but my guess is he just made a mistake.  It was about Brady so it seems you took it personally and assumed it was purposeful.  The poster was a Bills fan and we’re a little excited now so please try to take a deep breath before assuming the worst of us.  He was trying to be positive about Allen.  He didn’t mean to be negative about Tom.

 

Interesting that you now won’t even name BB.  20 years of success and now it’s bye bye and a little Bledsoe era throwing under the bus?  Are you considering switching over to Tompa Bay?

 

He said they played terrible, which, in their first year as starters, was also not true.  As for BB, his results with Bledsoe and his 4th string QB were significantly different over those 2 years. I was pointing that out because it was obvious.

 

But facts have always dogged you, hence you always default to the bolded.  You are like Rainman.....minus the savant trait, but with the Wapner.

 

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

See what I mean, Bill?

 

Again, no Brady was not 11-3. You'll find that that was the New England Patriots. Brady was one of the 11 guys on the offense, specifically the one who threw for 189.5 yards per game, who threw for 2843 yards in 15 games, threw 18 TDs and 12 INTs and put up a rip-roaring 86.5 passer rating. He was a game manager, really for his first four or five years, putting up slight but steady improvement till the light well and truly came on and he turned into "Tom Brady" in year 8.

 

And again to the again, same with Brees. He didn't win those games. It wasn't Brees who started 6-1 and finished 8-8 in his second season, his team did. He was the guy who managed 60.8% completions that second year you refer to, who threw 17 TDs and 16 INTs, who was a dink-and-dunker extraordinaire at 6.2 YPC, and whose passer rating was 76.9 that year. We saw him suddenly take the huge leap forward in year 4, going from 11 TDs and 15 INTs in year 3 (2003) to a 2004 of 27 TDs and 7 INTs. His passer ratings in his first four years were 94.8 on 27 attempts, then 76.9, then 67.5 and they drafted Rivers in the offseason and Brees swashbuckled his way to a 104.8. 

 

Yes, a team game--excellent point. I was pointing out that the year before Brady took over as starter, same coach, same team... Totally different Offense and obviously a different result for the seaon.  Not a great QB performance, but the team got orders of magnitude better.  This can't be disputed.

 

Let me put it even simpler:  had Josh, in his first year as starter---forget that, LAST year , QB's the Bills to as improbable a SB run as the 2001 NE team and he won was named to the PB AND  the SB MVP, would you have started a thread saying, "yeah, but....he was just a game manager"?  

 

 

[Motorin']

5 hours ago, Simon said:

Yeah, that's definitely part of what I mean. 

Nobody thought he'd suddenly be right there challenging Mahomes for the title of best QB on the planet.

Realistically, when you look at his % improvement by half season, his biggest leap was from his first 8 games year one to his last 8 games year one. Each 8 game increment he's had between 5-15% improvement in QB rating. So it's not out of this world or unforeseeable. It's actually pretty black and white, he keeps getting better by about the same margins both year to year and within each year. 

 

But yeah, to predict this, no. Did I'd hope he's be this good by year 5? Yes. Was I hoping for top 15 play this year, not expecting top 3 play? Yep. But the upward trend is right there in black and white. Every 8 games, constant growth and improvement.

 

 

[Mickey]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Josh Allen didn't get us into the playoffs last year with two weeks to spare.

 

I think if you go back and check out the box scores, you will find there were 11 players on the field pretty much at all times. That was the Buffalo Bills who did that, and frankly the defense was a lot more responsible for their success last year than the offense. The defense was edging on elite last year while the offense was pretty average.

 

For the eight billion and first time, wins are not a QB stat. They are a team stat.

 

Yeah, totally fair comment, pretend I sad Josh was the only reason we made the playoffs and then attack what I didn't say. The obvious point was that Josh was a critical factor in our success last year and even more so this year. He did his part which is what "Josh got us to the playoffs last year" clearly means. 

[HOUSE]

Keeps me up every night.

[Domitian]

Everyone need to keep in mind that most sports pundits idea of research is looking at box scores and sorting league rankings on ESPN stats to determine who and what is good and who and what isn't.  That's how you have the laziest among the talking heads saying that the Colts have a great defense that will cause problems for Allen.  They didn't bother looking that A. their D has been on the decline in the second half of the year.  B. Their D is ranked #8 because their Running D is amazing.  But the Bills aren't a running team.  and C. Their Pass defense is in the bottom half of the league and their cover corners are not very good and will not be able to keep up with Diggs/Beasley/Brown playing Man.  These are the same jokers that just look at Allen's comp % and watched the end of the Texans game and go with, "he was trash".  Most pundits are NOT Chris Simms who actually put in the work to know what they're talking about.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Nah.  I can see why they do it.  It's just following along with that lazy "analytics are Everything" bad analytics = sucks and continuing the "parody of a first round draft pick" Aaron Schultz Football Outsiders Sam Momson thing.

 

 

[cba fan]

No.. He developed each year that makes it not matter.

[Big Turk]

I get more annoyed when people keep saying he was inaccurate or had major accuracy problems. He was NEVER inaccurate, the dude was hitting crossbars from 30 yards out at camps and in training with Palmer and winning against the other QBs. His problem was his mechanics caused his accuracy to be inconsistent. So he WAS accurate, just not consistently. Major difference. Something most people didn't take into account or didn't even realize.  Once his mechanics got fixed, his natural accuracy became apparent since it was now consistent.  Dude puts balls on the money in windows that are ridiculous at times and might be the best QB throwing 30 yards downfield on the move in the NFL.

Edited January 5, 2021 by Big Turk

[Alphadawg7]

On 1/4/2021 at 5:39 PM, streetkings01 said:

I know I shouldn’t let it bother me, but it annoys the crap outta me. His rookie season he was a raw QB that was learning on the job and definitely didn’t play terrible, but didn’t play great either. Year #2 Josh looked like an above average QB that needed to take a step forward but was trending in the right direction. Year #3 he jumps into elite status and all you hear is how did this happen since he was sooooo terrible the past 2 years?!?!

 

It’s like.....did you even watch a Bills game the past 2 seasons or did you only watch the playoff game?

Count me in the camp of annoyed when they call his first 2 years terrible.  
 

This is why:  I hate LAZY journalism.  
 

I’m on record saying all of what I am about to say back when these things were happening too:

 

Year 1 - They ONLY talk about his comp % or passing TDs only.  If anyone with 2 eyes watched the Josh Allen that arrived after returning from injury, they would have immediately seen a guy who just showed a substantial improvement in comparison prior to the injury.  Josh balled out over the last 6 games compared to the first part of the season, especially given what he was working with in terms of talent around him.  We also led the league in drops that year.  
 

Year 2 - Again, all they talk about is the comp %, especially on the deep ball.  BUT, they ignore the 30 TDs, tied for most 4th quarter comebacks over his first 2 years, his 4th quarter rating being among the best, etc.  BUT:  More importantly, Josh was already much improved on the deep ball down the final stretch of the season compared to the atrocious first half of season.  We still led the league in dropped passes too.  Had we not led the league in drops, that alone likely would have had Josh above 60% last year, and that’s with the deep ball issues earlier in the season.  But the guy who finished that year was clearly having a substantially better 2nd year and clearly ascending.  His accuracy was actually very good everywhere but the deep ball, and even the deep ball was already improving quite a bit late in the season.
 

Again, for anyone to call his first 2 years atrocious means they did no research, watched no games, and just echoed the false narrative.  And their ONLY reasoning was based on his comp %, yet Cam Newton won an MVP while completing less than 60% of his passes.

 

So yeah, it’s annoying when they say it, but it does let me know they are terrible journalist and shouldn’t listen to their other opinions either.

Edited January 6, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Domitian]

28 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Nah.  I can see why they do it.  It's just following along with that lazy "analytics are Everything" bad analytics = sucks and continuing the "parody of a first round draft pick" Aaron Schultz Football Outsiders Sam Momson thing.

 

 

Look at the people that have been more realistic about Allen's skill and development and those that have been ZOMG HE'S TRASH!.  The dividing line isn't whether they use analytics or not, it's whether they're lazy hacks or not.  Most of the talking heads on TV especially have no damn clue what they're talking about.  They look at a few numbers, watch youtube highlights, and then come up with a hot take or parrot the conventional wisdom.