Colts Defense almost an exact replica of the 49ers D in terms of Defensive DVOA...

[Big Turk]

49ers rank 6th at -9.9% in final defensive DVOA rankings, Colts 7th at -9.5%, Bills 12th at -2.2%.  

In Pass DVOA, 49ers rank 7th at -3.2% and Colts rank 8th at -2.9%. Bills are 12th at 2.2%

In run DVOA, Indy is 9th at -19.7%, SF is 10th at -19.9%. Bills 17th at -8.2%

 

This appears to be a game the Bills might let Allen just sling it around and run only when needed to keep some balance. Indy is a "good" defense but not an elite defense.  We have already seen what the Bills do to "good" defenses like the 49ers.  Hell...even against elite defenses like the Rams and Steelers.  

 

However, in weighted DVOA, representing how the teams are doing with respect to more recent games having more weight(ie, how a team is playing RECENTLY), the Bills are actually ahead of the Colts in Defensive DVOA, ranking 8th at -8.0% while the Colts are 10th at -6.0%...meaning the Bills are BETTER on defense RIGHT NOW than the Colts have been playing....which could lead to some issues for them.

 

The Bills are #1 in weighted DVOA in the entire NFL right now at 34.5% and since the bye they have been over 40% in all of their games. Indy is 9th at 13.5%. Bills also have a significant special teams advantage ranked 4th in the NFL at 5.9% versus the colts 2.0%.  

 

Essentially what this boils down to is it is a good Colts team who doesn't do any one thig particularly well but isn't really weak at anything either.  The problem is the Bills are elite on offense, playing very good on defense now(better than the Colts), and is elite on special teams. Colts are good on offense tho nothing special at 2.9% DVOA.

 

I would expect to see Allen perform similarly to the 49ers game, the teams are very similar in that aspect. Colts are good but are no match for the Bills on D.

 

 

[John from Riverside]

They are not good against the pass......they are toast

[BuffaloBill]

Thanks for the information but with the playoffs you throw stats and records out the window. The win or die aspect to the playoffs seems to bring out a new level of competitiveness in teams. Don’t take anything for granted.

[Logic]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

49ers rank 6th at -9.9% in final defensive DVOA rankings, Colts 7th at -9.5%, Bills 12th at -2.2%.  

In Pass DVOA, 49ers rank 7th at -3.2% and Colts rank 8th at -2.9%. Bills are 12th at 2.2%

In run DVOA, Indy is 9th at -19.7%, SF is 10th at -19.9%. Bills 17th at -8.2%

 

This appears to be a game the Bills might let Allen just sling it around and run only when needed to keep some balance. Indy is a "good" defense but not an elite defense.  We have already seen what the Bills do to "good" defenses like the 49ers.  Hell...even against elite defenses like the Rams and Steelers.  

 

However, in weighted DVOA, representing how the teams are doing with respect to more recent games having more weight(ie, how a team is playing RECENTLY), the Bills are actually ahead of the Colts in Defensive DVOA, ranking 8th at -8.0% while the Colts are 10th at -6.0%...meaning the Bills are BETTER on defense RIGHT NOW than the Colts have been playing....which could lead to some issues for them.

 

The Bills are #1 in weighted DVOA in the entire NFL right now at 34.5% and since the bye they have been over 40% in all of their games. Indy is 9th at 13.5%. Bills also have a significant special teams advantage ranked 4th in the NFL at 5.9% versus the colts 2.0%.  

 

Essentially what this boils down to is it is a good Colts team who doesn't do any one thig particularly well but isn't really weak at anything either.  The problem is the Bills are elite on offense, playing very good on defense now(better than the Colts), and is elite on special teams. Colts are good on offense tho nothing special at 2.9% DVOA.

 

I would expect to see Allen perform similarly to the 49ers game, the teams are very similar in that aspect. Colts are good but are no match for the Bills on D.

 

 

Outstanding post.

Basically, the Bills RIGHT NOW are playing better defense, better offense, and better special teams.

I only see one area where the Colts are clearly better, and that's running the football. Unfortunately for them, against an offense as high powered as Buffalo's has been lately, I'm not sure that will be enough.

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

Outstanding post.

Basically, the Bills RIGHT NOW are playing better defense, better offense, and better special teams.

I only see one area where the Colts are clearly better, and that's running the football. Unfortunately for them, against an offense as high powered as Buffalo's has been lately, I'm not sure that will be enough.

 

They ran the ball really well yesterday but they haven't been great at it on the season...they rank 12th in rush DVOA at -5.4%. Better than the Bills, but the Bills don't try to run it much.

4 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

Thanks for the information but with the playoffs you throw stats and records out the window. The win or die aspect to the playoffs seems to bring out a new level of competitiveness in teams. Don’t take anything for granted.

 

To a degree but I just don't see them being to slow down Allen for more than a few series on D. At the end of the day, they are good, just not great on D. The Bills have feasted on those teams all year and I don't see why that would change now.  And once that avalanche starts its hard to stop it. Bills seem to literally score at will once they start scoring.

Edited January 4, 2021 by Big Turk

[SCBills]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

Outstanding post.

Basically, the Bills RIGHT NOW are playing better defense, better offense, and better special teams.

I only see one area where the Colts are clearly better, and that's running the football. Unfortunately for them, against an offense as high powered as Buffalo's has been lately, I'm not sure that will be enough.

 

And the weather seems similar to what we just played in against Miami.  Around 30 degrees, light winds, sun/clouds..  Don't change a thing in our attack - simply let Allen prove he can sling it in the Playoffs.

[Big Turk]

Just now, SCBills said:

 

And the weather seems similar to what we just played in against Miami.  Around 30 degrees, light winds, sun/clouds..  Don't change a thing in our attack - simply let Allen prove he can sling it in the Playoffs.

 

What would people around the NFL say if we put up 40+ points on the Colts?

[Process]

I have no idea what all this crap means. All I know is their secondary is trash and Allen is about to light them up.

[Paup 1995MVP]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

What would people around the NFL say if we put up 40+ points on the Colts?

They are going to say that any team that plays the Bills is going to have one hell of a difficult time slowing this offense down!!

 

We have Josh Allen, they have an aging immobile Phillip Rivers.  That should be worth about 17 points in our favor.

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Process said:

I have no idea what all this crap means. All I know is their secondary is trash and Allen is about to light them up.

 

DVOA is a metric that measures how teams do on a per play basis. 

[Process]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

DVOA is a metric that measures how teams do on a per play basis. 

I like my analysis better

[colin]

we need to not get gashed in the run game, and particularly not consistently lose the rock paper scissors of paying run when they are passing and playing pass when they are running.

 

on the other side of the ball, we need to avoid bad turnovers (like down the field ints won't kill us as much) and handle the pass rush.

 

given how both teams have played for the passed 10 games, i fully expect our D to have maybe 1 or 2 lay down drives and otherwise really frustrate them, and on the other side im going in expecting to score on every drive.  we won't score on some, but it will honestly be a surprise for me when it happens.  

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

The Ravens rolled into the playoffs hot and all full of themselves as a number two seed last year and the Titans kicked their teeth in after beating the Pats. 
 

The Bills can win against anyone but they better get to work, not listen to all the hype, and make sure all their interview candidates stay focused. 

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

The Ravens rolled into the playoffs hot and all full of themselves as a number two seed last year and the Titans kicked their teeth in after beating the Pats. 
 

The Bills can win against anyone but they better get to work, not listen to all the hype, and make sure all their interview candidates stay focused. 

 

The Ravens had and have a lot of flaws...namely Jackson cannot hold up as a legit passer when need be and cannot throw outside the numbers from the pocket.

[Playoffs?]

33 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

What would people around the NFL say if we put up 40+ points on the Colts?

Depends who you ask.. some critics might say that the Colts just had a bad day. Allen threw a couple that should’ve been picked off and was lucky. Blah blah blah. 
 

Some will say the Bills are the scariest team in the playoffs and the Chiefs should be pooping themselves. 

 

One thing is certain... making ANOTHER statement and winning this game will go a long way for the Buffalo Bills and the re-writing of the narrative. 

[Motorin']

3 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

The Ravens rolled into the playoffs hot and all full of themselves as a number two seed last year and the Titans kicked their teeth in after beating the Pats. 
 

The Bills can win against anyone but they better get to work, not listen to all the hype, and make sure all their interview candidates stay focused. 

 

I'm pretty sure the Bills aren't on vacay this week sipping pina coladas in the Caribbean.

[Rochesterfan]

50 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

49ers rank 6th at -9.9% in final defensive DVOA rankings, Colts 7th at -9.5%, Bills 12th at -2.2%.  

In Pass DVOA, 49ers rank 7th at -3.2% and Colts rank 8th at -2.9%. Bills are 12th at 2.2%

In run DVOA, Indy is 9th at -19.7%, SF is 10th at -19.9%. Bills 17th at -8.2%

 

This appears to be a game the Bills might let Allen just sling it around and run only when needed to keep some balance. Indy is a "good" defense but not an elite defense.  We have already seen what the Bills do to "good" defenses like the 49ers.  Hell...even against elite defenses like the Rams and Steelers.  

 

However, in weighted DVOA, representing how the teams are doing with respect to more recent games having more weight(ie, how a team is playing RECENTLY), the Bills are actually ahead of the Colts in Defensive DVOA, ranking 8th at -8.0% while the Colts are 10th at -6.0%...meaning the Bills are BETTER on defense RIGHT NOW than the Colts have been playing....which could lead to some issues for them.

 

The Bills are #1 in weighted DVOA in the entire NFL right now at 34.5% and since the bye they have been over 40% in all of their games. Indy is 9th at 13.5%. Bills also have a significant special teams advantage ranked 4th in the NFL at 5.9% versus the colts 2.0%.  

 

Essentially what this boils down to is it is a good Colts team who doesn't do any one thig particularly well but isn't really weak at anything either.  The problem is the Bills are elite on offense, playing very good on defense now(better than the Colts), and is elite on special teams. Colts are good on offense tho nothing special at 2.9% DVOA.

 

I would expect to see Allen perform similarly to the 49ers game, the teams are very similar in that aspect. Colts are good but are no match for the Bills on D.

 

 

 

The numbers between SF and Indy (esp DVOA wise) are similar, but I don’t feel like the 2 defenses are really very comparable. 
 

SF defense to me was a much more physical defense lead by some stellar DLine play across the board especially at DE and a very good Middle LB.  Indy is almost the opposite- they have Buckner in the middle as their strength and OLBs to help on the outside.  I think Indy has much less you need to control to beat them.  If you handle Buckner - their defense has a lot of gaps.

Indy has some talent at CB at CB1 and 2, but I don’t think they have the depth SF has and I believe their safeties can be attacked.  Really the only significant passing offense they faced was the Packers and Rodgers put over 300 yards and 4 first half TDs before they did one of their disappearing acts.

 

I think the Bills have the ability to really attack this defense and force them into some very uncomfortable decisions.  I want to see a lead to force Indy out of their comfort zone and away from Taylor running the ball.  I do like the WRs Indy has, but I don’t love Rivers trying to throw to them - He just makes to many mistakes.

 

I think this game will play close for parts, but I think the Bills are by far the better team and should be able to pull away as soon as Indy goes into one of their funks.

Edited January 4, 2021 by Rochesterfan

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

7 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

The Ravens had and have a lot of flaws...namely Jackson cannot hold up as a legit passer when need be and cannot throw outside the numbers from the pocket.

Everyone has flaws. Ravens lost 2 games that year, and won the last 12 straight. 
 

Nobody thought they’d be stopped. Not by the titans anyway 

Edited January 4, 2021 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Everyone has flaws. Ravens lost 2 games that year, and won the last 12 straight. 
 

Nobody thought they’d be stopped. Not by the titans anyway 

 

The Bills gave everyone the blueprint...Bills held Ravens to well under 300 yards of offense and 24 points when they were trucking people.

 

The difference is that Allen is an elite QB throwing the ball and Lamar isn't and likely never will be.

[billsfan89]

The Colts were the best matchup out of the 3 wildcard teams. I don't trust Rivers esp in bad weather, the Colts ground game with Taylor is good but it isn't as lethal as the Ravens or Browns, and the Colts defense is suspect in the passing attack. It would be a major disappointment if this game wasn't a comfortable 2 possession lead late.