In Depth Look at Bills Vs Colts

[PrimeTime101]

Bills Vs Colts

 

History

Head to Head  Bills win 32 - Colts win 37

Last time we played the Colts... Colts won 37-5 Oct. 21, 2018

 

When the Colts have the Ball

Rivers has been called a playoff choker a couple times and I feel the pressure is on him big time in this part of his career to perform. This year the Colts have put up 451 points 9th most in the NFL. Rivers has been a stable QB this year with 23 TD, 10 INT, 98.1 Rating 4005 yards.

Running has been mostly done by Jonathan Taylor has had 916 total yards, 9TD, 1 Fumble.

 

On offense they rank 8th In passing yards, 16th in rushing yards and 9th in points for.

 

Trend  They won 4 out of there last 5 games, Their Offense has had no fewer then 26 points during the same period. Rivers is a Hot/Cold type of QB and they do not have a 1000 yard receiver this year. Hilton has 735.

 

The Colts Defense 

The Colts Defense ranks 8th in the NFL over all with 15 INT (5th) in the NFL, 10 Fumbles (10th) total rank on takeaways (3rd) 24. This defense is complete 34 total sacks. Their Defensive Line has 24.5 sacks.. There is no one player to double team.. they all do damage.

Int leader is CB Moore  4 INT. 

 

The Colts Special Teams

Their punt return has been nothing special.. highest return 25 yards

Their kick return isn't horrible.. they average 25.1 yards 1 TD

Kicking field goals. 30 of 33.. 53 yards long.. not bad.. 

Punting over all not bad either average 46.4 yards.

 

The Colts Overall 

They are a complete team that wins many ways. Numbers do not scare you when you glare at any individual number but when you look at the whole picture you can understand why they are in the playoffs. Their FG kicking is great.. anything within 40 yards you can bank on it.. This is a team you can beat well by the time the game is over but there will be no half time victories.. I just cant see it.

 

When the Bills have the ball

The Bills are smoking hot with the ball. I'm not going to get into our numbers because we have looked them up many times.. The last few weeks when teams knew we were running the ball we still got substantial yards.. But this stat should be the most impressive.. In the last 5 games we punted the ball a total of 6 times. In my opinion we are the hottest offense going into the playoffs. Period.

 

The Bills Defense

Improved. In the last 5 games we have allowed at most 26 points against Miami (with defensive players resting for the game), 24 points against 49ers and the other 3 games we allowed 9,15,19 points. We are a top 10 defense and maybe better cause after first half of the season I doubt we were top 15.

 

Stats on Defense.. points allowed 23.3 points tied 18th.  The last 5 games 19 points allowed would rank top 5.. Each game this defense is improving.

 

Bills Special Teams 

What a game today on special teams lol.. A return for a TD.. A punt inside the 1 yard line... This is another spot I am not going to look up many stats because we are impressive in returning yards and Kicker .. lets  see.. 34 of 38 with 58 long and oh yea.. I think Bass tied or broke a record today,,,

 

The Bills Overall 

Other then KC there is not a team that scares me.. We are smoking one good defense after another.. The hottest team BY FAR going into the playoffs no one wants to play... I saw a post in Miami forums today a guy saying I hope one of the 3 teams doesn't lose today cause I don't want to get destroyed by Buffalo 2 games in a row.. STOP FEARING TEAMS... They fear us...

 

Coaching

Don't get me wrong, I am a fan of good ole Frank... But I give the edge to McD.. and his staff. Our play calling is just better all the way around. 

 

Outside View of the Colts (By RochesterLifer)

 

ESPN+ wrote this in their "Playoff team myth busters" article:

 

The myth: The Colts have one of the league's best defenses.

This was the case for the first half of the season. Indianapolis was No. 1 in the league in total defense, if you measure by fewest yards allowed per game, through Week 9. Darius Leonard is a terror at linebacker. DeForest Buckner is a force in the middle of the defensive line. Xavier Rhodes was having a resurgent season at cornerback. The Colts' defense was one of the very best -- if not the best -- into the early part of November.

 

Why it's wrong: It didn't hold up. From Weeks 10-16, Indy ranked 26th in total defense and 27th in defensive efficiency. In its last three games against teams in the playoff field -- Green Bay, Tennessee and Pittsburgh -- the Colts have allowed an average of 35 points and 390 yards. They did win the Green Bay game in overtime, but they blew a 24-7 second-half lead in Pittsburgh in Week 16 to cost themselves a chance to win the AFC South.

 

Yes, respect all teams in the playoffs, as the AFC is strong this year. However, at the very least, this made me smile.

 

General Outcome

If Rivers Is hot, Bills win by 6... If Rivers falls on his face in another playoff game... LOOK OUT... we will smoke yet another team by 15+

 

 

Edited. I am adding a key to this game from talks with other members of the board. IF We come out with a quick lead like 14-0.. The pressure on Rivers may be to much

Edited January 4, 2021 by PrimeTime101

[T&C]

There is already a thread about this... but maybe this one is better lol.

[wppete]

Great break down.

[PrimeTime101]

1 minute ago, T&C said:

There is already a thread about this... but maybe this one is better lol.

Yea thanks.. Theres some history with this thread lol but IF mods want to merge other threads like this together Then I have no problems with it.. I just dont want it merged into Bills vs Colts cobweb hell lol

1 minute ago, wppete said:

Great break down.

Thanks I put a ton of work into this one.. This is actually only the second breakdown I did this year. Thanks for the props

[GunnerBill]

I see this game as very similar matchup wise to the Bills @ 49ers. Indy have a good running back and a Quarterback who likes to dink and dunk (thought despite being pretty much done Rivers is still better than Mullens). On defense they have a good front 7 but struggle on the back end. 

 

My guess is the game is competitive early but as it goes on the Bills take control and because the Colts can't cover our receivers a deficit takes them away from Jonathan Taylor and toward Philip Rivers. That plays into Bills hands. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I see this game as very similar matchup wise to the Bills @ 49ers. Indy have a good running back and a Quarterback who likes to dink and dunk (thought despite being pretty much done Rivers is still better than Mullens). On defense they have a good front 7 but struggle on the back end. 

 

My guess is the game is competitive early but as it goes on the Bills take control and because the Colts can't cover our receivers a deficit takes them away from Jonathan Taylor and toward Philip Rivers. That plays into Bills hands. 

i was watching some of the Colts/Steelers highlights today, and Rivers still has a nice deep ball. They have some speed at receiver too in TY and Pascal.  You wonder if the play calling is overall more conservative—

run, play action, short passes, etc— as opposed to Rivers being too old. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

i was watching some of the Colts/Steelers highlights today, and Rivers still has a nice deep ball. They have some speed at receiver too in TY and Pascal.  You wonder if the play calling is overall more conservative—

run, play action, short passes, etc— as opposed to Rivers being too old. 

 

He is inconsistent throwing deep. Has been all year. Has made some plays but has some give aways too. If he wants to try and throw deep a lot in Buffalo in January with his clapped out arm he can be my guest. 

[PrimeTime101]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I see this game as very similar matchup wise to the Bills @ 49ers. Indy have a good running back and a Quarterback who likes to dink and dunk (thought despite being pretty much done Rivers is still better than Mullens). On defense they have a good front 7 but struggle on the back end. 

 

My guess is the game is competitive early but as it goes on the Bills take control and because the Colts can't cover our receivers a deficit takes them away from Jonathan Taylor and toward Philip Rivers. That plays into Bills hands. 

1000% agree how many teams now in the playoffs can cover Diggs, Beasley and Brown. they will have to out "gun" us no pun intended Gunner lol

3 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

i was watching some of the Colts/Steelers highlights today, and Rivers still has a nice deep ball. They have some speed at receiver too in TY and Pascal.  You wonder if the play calling is overall more conservative—

run, play action, short passes, etc— as opposed to Rivers being too old. 

Rivers has fallen flat in how many playoff games... IF its a shootout Allen vrs Rivers.. I like our chances lol

4 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

i was watching some of the Colts/Steelers highlights today, and Rivers still has a nice deep ball. They have some speed at receiver too in TY and Pascal.  You wonder if the play calling is overall more conservative—

run, play action, short passes, etc— as opposed to Rivers being too old. 

NA.. this goes to my point.. you have good WR's but you still have to deliver the ball

[GunnerBill]

Just now, PrimeTime101 said:

1000% agree how many teams now in the playoffs can cover Diggs, Beasley and Brown. they will have to out "gun" us no pun intended Gunner lol

 

I don't think anyone can cover Diggs 1v1. Baltimore might have the best chance with Humphrey and Peters. It is true though, on the AFC side other than Baltimore I don't see any really good secondaries. Chiefs, Steelers, Indy and Cleveland are all defenses built front to back and the only one other than Baltimore and Buffalo built back to front is Tennessee and their secondary has majorly under performed all year. 

[Warcodered]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I see this game as very similar matchup wise to the Bills @ 49ers. Indy have a good running back and a Quarterback who likes to dink and dunk (thought despite being pretty much done Rivers is still better than Mullens). On defense they have a good front 7 but struggle on the back end. 

 

My guess is the game is competitive early but as it goes on the Bills take control and because the Colts can't cover our receivers a deficit takes them away from Jonathan Taylor and toward Philip Rivers. That plays into Bills hands. 

Yeah Rivers has old man cunning and the patients of a man with 20 kids.

[PrimeTime101]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think anyone can cover Diggs 1v1. Baltimore might have the best chance with Humphrey and Peters. It is true though, on the AFC side other than Baltimore I don't see any really good secondary's. Chiefs, Steelers, Indy and Cleveland are all defenses built front to back and the only one other than Baltimore and Buffalo built back to front is Tennessee and their secondary has majorly under performed all year. 

Here's the thing with Baltimore .. They let Cleveland score 42 points. We have now proven we can score points in any fashion if we wish and that's the one downer for them. 

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

Yeah Rivers has old man cunning and the patients of a man with 20 kids.

haha 20 kids huh lol.. Rivers runs out of patients when hes down by 14 or more.. maybe that's the key to this game.. come out fast and hard.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, PrimeTime101 said:

Here's the thing with Baltimore .. They let Cleveland score 42 points. We have now proven we can score points in any fashion if we wish and that's the one downer for them. 

 

Their secondary got banged up that day they were down at the end to bottom of the roster guys. Smith came out and didn't go back in and Peters played hobbled. I think of all the secondaries left Baltimore's is the one with the best chance of matching up with the Bills receivers - that would be a game for Beasley underneath if we end up facing them IMO. Their bigger problem is could they consistently move the ball on our D. Not convinced.

[Nextmanup]

Rivers blows hot and cold.  He can still be effective, but I have seen him look like his arm is totally shot too.  He can be prone to accuracy issues and the velocity is not there anymore on some throws.  

 

A nice cold day is going to bother him.

 

Hopefully our offense can set the pace and put TDs on the board early and often, forcing Rivers to have to keep pace, which I don't think he can do at this point in his career.

 

 

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Their secondary got banged up that day they were down at the end to bottom of the roster guys. Smith came out and didn't go back in and Peters played hobbled. I think of all the secondaries left Baltimore's is the one with the best chance of matching up with the Bills receivers - that would be a game for Beasley underneath if we end up facing them IMO. Their bigger problem is could they consistently move the ball on our D. Not convinced.

Nor am I.. We have played against great secondary's this season and TORCHED them.  so great secondary's don't care me as much.

the way to beat Josh used to be blitz him heavily but Josh has proven he wont take many negative plays and has proven he can play call his way out of a Blitz

 

1 minute ago, Nextmanup said:

Rivers blows hot and cold.  He can still be effective, but I have seen him look like his arm is totally shot too.  He can be prone to accuracy issues and the velocity is not there anymore on some throws.  

 

A nice cold day is going to bother him.

 

Hopefully our offense can set the pace and put TDs on the board early and often, forcing Rivers to have to keep pace, which I don't think he can do at this point in his career.

 

 

 

 

Yes and Yes... Im going to edit my topic for keys of game and add... Line up points on this team fast.

[PrimeTime101]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Their secondary got banged up that day they were down at the end to bottom of the roster guys. Smith came out and didn't go back in and Peters played hobbled. I think of all the secondaries left Baltimore's is the one with the best chance of matching up with the Bills receivers - that would be a game for Beasley underneath if we end up facing them IMO. Their bigger problem is could they consistently move the ball on our D. Not convinced.

Gunner I have a question.. Are we at the point where all the teams in the AFC should be afraid of us and we fear No one? cause we are at another level right now.  Have we gained enough respect from other teams,,, so much respect that it would force other teams into mistakes... Kind of what NE did to us for years?

[GunnerBill]

Just now, PrimeTime101 said:

Gunner I have a question.. Are we at the point where all the teams in the AFC should be afraid of us and we fear No one? cause we are at another level right now.  Have we gained enough respect from other teams,,, so much respect that it would force other teams into mistakes... Kind of what NE did to us for years?

 

I don't think the Bills should fear anyone. I think they still need to beat the kings to be considered the kings, in respect of Kansas City, but I don't think the Bills should fear them. 

 

They should have a healthy respect for the AFC playoff teams, it is a strong group, but the Bills can beat all of them and I think you saw from the reaction of the Colt fans that were hoping for a Houston win at the end against the Titans that they are not overjoyed at the prospect of coming to Buffalo. 

 

At the start of the season I said there were three teams who I thought had a shot to rep the AFC in the Superbowl - Kansas City, Baltimore and Buffalo. I still feel that way. 

[PrimeTime101]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think the Bills should fear anyone. I think they still need to beat the kings to be considered the kings, in respect of Kansas City, but I don't think the Bills should fear them. 

 

They should have a healthy respect for the AFC playoff teams, it is a strong group, but the Bills can beat all of them and I think you saw from the reaction of the Colt fans that were hoping for a Houston win at the end against the Titans that they are not overjoyed at the prospect of coming to Buffalo. 

 

At the start of the season I said there were three teams who I thought had a shot to rep the AFC in the Superbowl - Kansas City, Baltimore and Buffalo. I still feel that way. 

Yep Great Call Gunner

[GETTOTHE50]

Just feed diggs the damn ball and we will win. It’s as simple as that 

[CSBill]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They should have a healthy respect for the AFC playoff teams, it is a strong group . . .

 

 

Indeed it is. Last year, the 11-5 Colts would not have made the play-offs. All these teams are good, but to your point Gunner, I do not think the Bills should fear any of them, including the Chiefs.

[Big Turk]

I honestly can't see the Colts staying within 14 points no matter how well they play. We are simply a superior team top to bottom and the Bills have a much better QB at this stage of his career. 

 

Indy could play great defense and still give up 5 or 6 straight scoring drives. Our D is not going to let that happen.

 

Bills are 2nd in the NFL allowing only 9.1 points in the first half of games. Bills are also 2nd in the NFL at points scored in the first half at 16.1.

 

That is a lethal combination that sees thee Bills jump out to big leads at halftime and if this happens in this game the Colts don't have a prayer.

Edited January 4, 2021 by Big Turk