A Few Thoughts About the Dolphins Game, in no particular order

[Nihilarian]

8 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

Fitz got screwed by the Fish. Watching Tua the last few weeks, I have no idea how the Fish got to 10 wins.  Most told me it was due to ridiculous defensive TOs.

That Dolphins #1 defense in points allowed and the turnovers they created. I'm kinda happy the way things turned out for Miami because the way they screwed Fitz and broke his heart for benching him.

 

Also, I hate Miami going back to the entire decade of the 70's where the Bills didn't win one game against them. Any win against the phins is a squish I enjoy! 

 

 

Lastly, the feeling of how powerful this team is this season is very reminiscent of the 1990 season in which the Bills were the highest scoring team in the NFL. 1990 Buffalo offense #1 in points scored and #6 in yards. 

 

The difference is that the 90's Bills took a few years to get there as they were 12-4 in 1988. That season the defense was so much better #3 in points allowed vs #14 in points scored.

 

That 90s offense had Andre Reed, Don Beebe, James Loften and Thurman Thomas who was the #2 receiver behind Reed. Opposing teams would move up to stop the run and Kelly would hit Reed over the middle or Loften, Beebe deep. The Bills used Thomas like the Colts later would use Marshall Faulk.

 

Anyway, as good as those 80's-90's teams were...they were not as explosive as this years Buffalo offense.

I can't recall a season in which the Bills ever had the #1 receiver in either receptions and yards, Stefon Diggs. 127 receptions 1535 yards! Holy...! 

 

Josh Allen 4544 passing yards, 37 TDs, 10 INTs with a whopping 69.2% completion percentage. Kelly in his best season was 63.6. 

 

I never would have thought that the Buffalo Bills offense could be this good this quickly! Man, I was so wrong about Brian Daboll who has developed into a top NFL OC. Doubt the Bills can keep him in Buffalo after this season. Buffalo #2 in total offense. 

 

This seasons Bills could win it all if they can keep their focus on the final prize in Tampa! 

 

 

Edited January 4, 2021 by Nihilarian

[CSBill]

Thanks Virgil, as usual, a great write-up! As I mentioned to Shaw66, your work is much appreciated. Finish strong, just 4 more games to go.

 

Edited January 4, 2021 by CSBill

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

But still possible.

 

Id they got 3 onsides and scored quickly. I don't know what the mathematical win % model would have had it. Less than 1% I suspect.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

7 hours ago, Jerry Jabber said:

That, along with the cheap shot to Diggs. Plus, these guys are backups and we’re looking for some action as they’ve been riding the bench for most of the season. 

 

I was livid by that time and GLAD they threw the flag.  He clearly gave himself up and the were still hitting him.

 

Get the first down and don't gamble on losing the ball.  Other Bills started doing the same.  Protect the rock.  If you are down they can't strip the ball! 

[Rochesterfan]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I totally disagree Virgil. I hate and I mean hate Coaches calling timeouts just to show they have used them when games are dead. It is disrespectful to players who put their bodies on the line every play to create more plays in a blowout football game for absolutely no reason. Look at Vic Fangio a couple of weeks ago. The Broncos walked off the field with 3 unused second half time outs. Because the game was dead. There was no point calling timeouts. That is the way you are supposed to do it. I was as fired up by Flores calling those time outs as I have been basically by anything all season. He deserved what came next. D*ck move.

 

 

He has done a really good job to rebuild Miami into a 10 win team. But his mishandling of Tua (I challenge anyone to watch that kid play today and tell me his confidence isn't shaken by his mishandling) and then his pathetic 4th quarter behaviour today deserve an avalanche of criticism. 

 

I totally agree and you could see times in the 3rd and 4th quarter where it looked like Tua was just waiting for Fitz (or someone) to come bail him out.  
 

He did not have the confidence to throw to the middle of the field and really the only throw >10 yards he made all day was 2 deep sideline throws to the left (his strong side) that he got bailed out by great catches by the WR.  Neither were great throws and the DBs were there, but the WR made some great adjustments.

 

I will be interested to see what the off-season has in store for Tua - as I will not knock him yet, but he really needs to work hard on his footwork and mechanics - he is right now similar to Josh early in his career - a torso/arm thrower.  He gets little drive - which may be from the injury or could be his natural throw, but he cannot drive the ball into tight spaces - his throws are more touch based at the present time.

 

He sees open guys and makes some throws with anticipation, but lacks the elite arm to make every play and unless he really works to make certain changes - that could be his downfall.

[The Poojer]

9 hours ago, timekills17 said:

As bad/petty as this sounds, I was more mad about running up the score because it showed we could do it without JA17 out there - which might influence MVP voters.

 

I hated the Pats for running up the score on us (and others) but do agree with Belichick in that this is the NFL. It's the other team's job to stop the offense.

I don’t think we intentionally ran up the score.  We had second team in there and they just kept giving us the ball back via turnovers and downs.  Can’t ask the second team to not play.

And Allen following Williams (?) hand up waiting for a return high five was epic.

[mannc]

9 hours ago, bills6969 said:

In regards to Tua,  I think the Dolphins FO and coaching staff royally f’d up the management of Tua.  The dude wasn’t really supposed to see the field this year.  He’s one year removed from significant hip injury/surgery.   Instead,  their stupid FO wanted to see Tua on the field (mostly I think due to how well Herbert was playing).  Fitz was playing well at that point in the season,  but FO forced coaching staff hand to change QBs which is a big no-no.

 

jury is still out on Tua obviously,  but his FO did him no favors by forcing out there before he was ready.  If they would’ve just stuck with Fitz,  they’re in the playoffs now.

Lots of unwarranted medical speculation in your post.  Of course it’s early, but Tua just does not look like he has the tools to play in this league.  Here’s hoping the Phins spend another year or two trying to figure that out instead of going Arizona and cutting their losses.

Edited January 4, 2021 by mannc

[DCbillsfan]

Good write up Virgil.  I noticed the number of targets to Knox as well. 

 

I have no problem with the Bills hanging 56 on the fish.  The Bills backups came to play and making the most of their opportunity.  This is their job and we all know there is roster turnover every year.  The backups don't have much tape this year, no preseason, so they were jacked!

 

This is a special season.  Enjoy it.  As a life long Bills fan, I know I am.

 

Go Bills!!

[machine gun kelly]

I don’t know if the medical is that big of an issue Mannc, as it was pretty obvious he still is hampered a bit by the hip injury and some QB gurus have commented he still needs to get that fixed.  Not a big deal though Mannc.  As far as Fitz, I didn’t understand why the Fins didn’t wait til the wheels fell off before switching.  Giving him 6 games after eliminated or just brought in when they are either crushing a team or getting crushed would’ve made much more sense.  He’s a kid, and with further healing and proper QB coaching like what Palmer has done would go a long way for Tua.  Jordan Palmer should be getting some off season coaching love with the success of Allen.  If I’m Tua, I’m running to the phone, saying, Jordan I need you’re help.  He’ll have him bunk with Allen.  I have no issues with Tua.  It’s was almost unfair to the guy.

 

You know I’m a Virg. fan so thanks bud.  I think all of us look forward to you and the great Rockpile are the Monday highlights.

 

yesterday was another nail in the coffin, that I have no fear or trepidation of the Chiefs.  Not a cocky thing, just confidence we can stand toe to toe.

 

I mentioned earlier this morning on another thread some other points, but you’re synopsis at the end makes all of us so elated to be a  Bills fan.

 

Year End

#2 offense overall

#2 offense in pts.

#3 offense passing

 

ST

#1 kick returns

#4 punt returns.

 

Defense

#14 Defense.  Fine with me as still in top half.

 

FANDEMONIUM!

[Mat68]

10 hours ago, Virgil said:

It wasn't supposed to be like this.  Yes, quite a few locked playoff teams played their starters to gain better seeding positioning and we did pull the majority of our guys by halftime.  We were playing a playoff hopeful team that had many fans worried could surge mid-way through the season and threaten as AFC East champions.  With that, there was no way we would absolutely humiliate and destroy the Dolphins, right?  We aren't that level of elite team, are we? 

 

1 - Knox - In all that occurred in this game, one thing that stuck out to me a lot was the amount of plays designed to go to Knox.  He didn't have a big game and a lot of the plays were either poor throws or blown up by the Dolphins defense, but the focus was still there.  I'm not quite sure why Knox was a focal point, and it may not be worth the time to understand any offensive philosophy in a meaningless week 17 game, but it was still a note multiple times today.

 

2 - Tua - I'll give him credit, he throws a great sideline deep ball to the back-shoulder.  Other than that, the Bills absolutely demoralized the kid.  Yes, he threw for the illustrious 300+ yards, but our defense intercepted him three times, could have easily been five, and eliminated his effectiveness once he had to become a pure passer.  This is not an indication of the type of player is going to be, but it does go to show that the question is still out there.  He isn't Herbert or Burrow and the offense is still very much tailored to bringing him along as a rookie.  Like the Steelers a few weeks back, the Dolphins play their game within 10 yards of the line and don't know how to adapt beyond that.

 

3 - Marlowe - Making the most of his extra playing time, Marlowe almost had three interceptions today as he was all over the field.  He was great in coverage as he was used almost Poyer-esqe in this game.  He was at the line, deep in coverage, and did a great job of holding his zone; which resulted in one of his interceptions.  Marlowe, like many others, showed the depth of this team and just how scary this defense can be.

 

4 - Well I married me a wife, she's been trouble all my life

Run me out in the cold rain and snow

Rain and snow, run me out in the cold rain and snow

 

5 - Barkley - No offense to Matt, but if you want to understand just how strong Allen's arm is, watch some of Matt's throws.  First off, I think Matt is one of the biggest cheerleaders on the team.  He was losing his mind on the punt return and the Smoke sideline catch.  I do take issue with his deep ball late to Davis, no matter how beautiful that play was.  We were up big and the game was over.  Let's be better there.  Barkley had one terrible interception, but was overall suitable as a backup in the game.  It was interesting to see the change of pace out there, but you could tell Matt was excited to make play and had no intention of just handing off the ball.

 

6 - Smoke - How good was it to see him back out on the field?  If you wondered how his speed would be affected by the injury, the perfect deep ball from Josh answered that.  He showed his typical cross route and side-line awareness.  If this game only served the purposed of getting his feet wet and letting Josh find his rhythm with him, then mission accomplished.

 

7 - McKenzie - With Roberts and Beasley out, our #5 receiver had a career first half.  The punt return for a touchdown was all him, with jukes, stutter steps, and field awareness.  His touchdowns were just pure speed and tiring out the defenders.  If Beasley is unable to return for the playoff, I think it's safe to say that McKenzie can handle the pick-up duty.  He's a great compliment of speed with Diggs and Brown out there and can handle the limited calls he gets.  Great game for the kid and you have to be happy for him.  If you're an opposing defense, you have to just shake your head at another Bills weapon scoring points

 

8 - Bojo - I really debated making just a special teams thought, but Bojo's punt inside the 1 yard line was as beautiful a punt as I've ever seen.  For a kid who many wanted cut last season, Bojo has gone on to lead the lead in YPP this season.  Granted, he's well rested with this offense, but it has to make you feel better knowing how well we can flip fields in a possession game. 

 

9 - Matakevich - I'm not spelling that name, so he will be Tyler going forward (sorry Kroft), but I may have a new favorite back-up player.  Tyler was an absolutely missile out there today.  Kid just made a decision and just ran.  He also did the one thing that consistently drives me nuts about Edwards, and that's initiate contact on catches over the middle.  It seemed like every time someone tried to make a catch over the the middle, Tyler was there.  This kid was playing like he had red bull flowing through his veins.  Just another player who shows the depth this team has.

 

10 - Bass - To be honest, I don't understand how points are assigned to players.  Do offensive players not get 6 points for touchdowns?  Either way, Bass now owns the record for most points in a season.  Here's the thing, he did it on mainly extra points.  Seriously, besides the Jets game, the kid is barely out there for field goals.  I'm not taking away from his progress this season, as he's come a really long way, but it's just amazing to me that he set this record knowing his usage.

 

 

Honestly, I don't even know what to say about this team anymore.  I wasn't expecting this game nor the back-half of this season.  If, at the beginning of the season, I told you to pick one of the following to be true, which would you pick:

-Bojo leads the NFL in yards per punt

-Bass breaks teams single season point record

-Allen breaks the single season passing record

-Allen breaks the single season TD record

-Allen has almost 5k total yards and 46 total touchdowns

-Diggs leads the NFL in total receptions

-Diggs leads the NFL in total yards

-Bills score over 500 points

-Bills are 13-3, easily could have been 14-2

-Allen is a legitimate MVP candidate

 

The fact that all of those are true is simply astounding.  We are the team that no one wants to face in the playoffs.  We are the offensive juggernaut with a defense that creates turnovers and a special teams that flips field position.  It's amazing.  Just amazing.

 

Go Bills!

I believe it was Cossell.  If you see a Qb that throws the check down or fade it means they are not seeing the feild at all.  He looks pretty bad.  Herbert, Burrough look like they are miles apart from Tua.  Heck Hurts looks more promising in my eyes.  I really hope they keep him.  They trade down or take a Wr or Tackle at 3.  They woukd be making a hige mistake staying with Tua.

[machine gun kelly]

But Mat, don’t forget we stuck with Allen with a 53% completion record, a penchant for fumbling, and running too fast at times.  Now he had crap for a line and WR’s.

 

I just think it’s way too early for moving on from a kid who needs development.  In retrospect, they would’ve been much better served keeping on a clipboard much longer.  I’m the furthest from a Fins fan, but I don’t hate the kid.

 

The real question is do they extend Fitz which almost becomes an impediment to Tua’s development.  Tua didn’t have a real off season like the other rookies and was coming back from a catastrophic injury.  He now has a real off season, and can get personal coaching.

 

Selfishly, Id love for them to move on from Fitz, we pick him up, amd move on from Barkley.  Not that he is bad, but Fitz is better.  For the Fish, they invested $235.8 mil. in FA last year, had 11 picks, and has another 10 this year.  If Tua make no headway in 2021, ok.  Now, they have $ for next year but the cap thing is a ?.

[TFBillsfan]

You know it’s been a great regular season when we are debating, the Bills should STOP scoring in a game. 
 

On to the Colts!!!!!!

[machine gun kelly]

9 minutes ago, TFBillsfan said:

You know it’s been a great regular season when we are debating, the Bills should STOP scoring in a game. 
 

On to the Colts!!!!!!

TB, I think the Bills scored again.  Just sayin.

[Stranded in Boston]

Apropos Flores' 4th-quarter timeout calls: Back in the 70s, I recall Dick Butkus calling a timeout -- himself! -- with the defense on the field in the dying seconds of a losing game. Turns out Butkus just wanted one last chance to hit somebody.  ... I was also surprised that the Bills aired it out so aggressively late in the game, but I guess sometimes you just gotta let 'em play! 

 

And Virgil, (and Shaw) -- thanks a ton for your insightful write-ups. I don't know how you guys find the time, but I look forward to them after every game.   😃

[Buffalo Junction]

32 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:Selfishly, Id love for them to move on from Fitz, we pick him up, amd move on from Barkley.  Not that he is bad, but Fitz is better.  For the Fish, they invested $235.8 mil. in FA last year, had 11 picks, and has another 10 this year.  If Tua make no headway in 2021, ok.  Now, they have $ for next year but the cap thing is a ?.

No thank you. I’d rather not see the Fitz cycle start over here with an Allen injury. 

[wjag]

11 hours ago, Virgil said:

It wasn't supposed to be like this.  Yes, quite a few locked playoff teams played their starters to gain better seeding positioning and we did pull the majority of our guys by halftime.  We were playing a playoff hopeful team that had many fans worried could surge mid-way through the season and threaten as AFC East champions.  With that, there was no way we would absolutely humiliate and destroy the Dolphins, right?  We aren't that level of elite team, are we? 

 

1 - Knox - In all that occurred in this game, one thing that stuck out to me a lot was the amount of plays designed to go to Knox.  

 

2 - Tua -  Like the Steelers a few weeks back, the Dolphins play their game within 10 yards of the line and don't know how to adapt beyond that.

 

3 - Marlowe - Making the most of his extra playing time, 

 

 

#1.  His role is increasing with each week.  Has to be scaring the bee jee bees out of teams that do all they can to contain the triplets.  His underneath, in the flat routes, are open more times than not.  I see all these games as seasoning.  He has flashed this year.  I think he could be great next year.

 

#2.  That game plan was simply baffling to me.  I think Tua needs an offseason with Jordan Palmer.  I don't know how many screens or 3 yard passes he threw yesterday, but it felt like several games worth.  Parker showed the ability to beat coverage.  I will be interested to see the ALL 22 to see if they were running deep routes with Gisecki, Parker and Ford.  I clearly remember Ford dropping two deep passes.  Ford's drops were big.  Dolphins need another WR to complement Parker.

 

#3.  True for Marlow.  Also true for every player stuck on the depth charts below the starters.  I count 32 different names in the stat sheet this AM.  Add in the OLINE which was probably another 8 guys.  And there was probably another 6-10 guys on special teams that got in the game but not the stat sheet.  About the only guy who appears to have sat yesterday was Roberts.

[BRH]

So, two questions that keep popping up in this thread:

 

(1) Should we or should we not have "run up the score"?

 

and

 

(2) Did Flores handle Tua correctly this season?

 

To the first question:  we didn't run up the score.  They kept their starters in, called timeout when down 29, and played to the end.  They scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter and wanted more.  We had mostly backups in from the second-half kickoff onward, including a running back who hadn't been on the active roster all season.  Those guys are professionals and they had an opportunity to show their stuff against a first-string defense that was still trying.  When the Dolphins got the ball back and immediately turned it over at midfield, it was the perfect opportunity for a deep strike and we took it.  It's in no way comparable to when Brady was going up top against us when the Pats were up by 40 or whatever.  Just not the same thing.  Plus, we've been crying all season about how the team didn't put opponents away when they had the chance.  Now we feel guilty because we did?  Please.

 

To the second:  I'm a big believer in making young guys clean up their own messes.  As a youth baseball coach it used to drive me crazy when the opposing pitcher would walk two or three guys and their coach would come out and get him (assuming the pitcher wasn't hurt or tired, of course) and bring in a stud to get out of it.  Not because it hurt our team but because it hurt that kid's development.  You made the mess; you have to learn how to clean it up.   When Flores brought in Tua he was saying:  developing this kid is more important than somehow pulling a playoff berth out of our rear ends.  And we might not win as many this year as we would with Fitz, but I'm playing the long game and getting this kid ready for the future.  But he couldn't stick with it.  Winning became more important to him, which is curious because he had so much equity builr up.  Even Fins fans had written this season off and were looking to next year when they would have tons of cap room and multiple first-rounders.  No one would have batted an eye if he had just ridden it out with Fitz, and who knows, they might have stolen a playoff berth after all and given the team (not just Tua) more valuable high-pressure experience.  It's possible that ownership and the front office was jittery because Herbert (who they passed on) was having a breakout rookie season, but Flores should have been strong enough to resist that pressure.  Now they have a real question at QB going into next year, and too much bad tape on Tua to get a first-rounder back for him.  I don't think Flores trusts him, and I don't think Miami thinks he's their guy.  I think they messed this season up and I couldn't be happier.

[Professor Worthington]

6 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

But still possible.

Maybe statistically, but shouldn’t a coach be able to read the body language of his players?  They were getting pummeled:  out-physicaled and outrun.  The QB was a hot mess.  He needed to fold up his tent and get the hell out of Buffalo.

[Einstein's Dog]

Virgil - great post and thanks for doing these.  My thoughts:

1.  Great to see the Knox plays.  I think Knox will be good and they needed to get him back on track for this year.

2.  I agree with most others on here and have no problem with the deep pass.  Miami was calling time outs and even if not, this is not some pop warner game.  The bills had things needed - get Barkley some respect, work on Davis he's getting better.  Now if Barkley has to come in for a play or two in the playoffs, it will give all the other teams something to think about.

3.  I think you neglected the coaches again (I reprimanded you in the last segment).  You can't do better than what they did for this game.  There is no Monday morning coaching even in this hard to please crowd.  All kinds of records, swept the East, second seed, played the backups, and kept momentum.  Incredibly well done by the staff.  Maybe nothing specific you can point to, but when everything aligns so beautifully it seems credit should be given.  In retrospect there are no regrets.

4.  A lot of the post game talk is on the Dolphins and the decisions of their staff.  They have question marks.  But I always thought they were pretenders and actually overachievers.  I also don't fear them for next year, we are significantly better and they do not have a QB. 

 

Appreciate the write-ups and subsequent discussions.

[RangerDave]

5 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

I never would have thought that the Buffalo Bills offense could be this good this quickly! Man, I was so wrong about Brian Daboll who has developed into a top NFL OC. Doubt the Bills can keep him in Buffalo after this season. Buffalo #2 in total offense. 

I think Daboll has done a terrific job this year.  It is much easier, however, to be a great coordinator, and draw up great plays, when you have the players who can execute them at a high level.  Calling a Statue of Liberty play, or WR to QB touchdown passes, are much easier when you have supreme confidence in your players.  And that confidence extends to them either successfully executing the play, or if the play fails, executing successful drives afterwards.  I think it would be (or will be?) much more difficult for him if he takes over a lousy team which doesn't have the players who can execute what he draws up.  Plus, being a head coach takes a much different set of management skills than being a coordinator.

 

That said, I hope Brian is happy and successful wherever his career takes him.  Hopefully, he enjoys coaching for his hometown team a while longer!