Round 1 Playoff: Colts at Bills - Sat. 1/9 1:05pm

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

1 minute ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Exactly. Eff this guy. Just look at him for God's sake. His face screams "punch meeee". D-bag. 

 

Right, even his look is intentional.

 

He sees Bills fans have an inferiority complex and he is playing to it. It's smart in an annoying way. You will never be able to present enough facts for him to change his mind because being right or wrong is irrelevant to him. He wants your attention and he is getting it.

 

Childish but very effective obviously

[ColoradoBills]

So the weather looks like Partly Cloudy, fairly calm winds and CHILLY.

 

Excellent, Excellent.

[Success]

2 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

I think Allen has gotten better at changing plays at the line and calling out protections, but it seems that the entire offense is really keyed in lately. The OL is blocking better. The WRs are running routes better. Allen deserves some credit for sure, but I really think what we are seeing is the whole team getting better.  Recently, Josh has been standing back there with all kinds of time to find an open receiver, with the exception of the Pittsburgh game. They made some adjustments in protections in the second half and of course pulled away at the end of that game. The boys on that OL have really been doing a nice job lately.

 

Of all the pleasant developments with Allen, his savvy at the line really stands out.  That is one thing that MANY QB's just never get - they have a hard time recognizing defenses and adjusting.  We've had a few of those over the drought years.

 

He honestly reminds me of P. Manning at the line.  He takes his time & surveys everything - you can tell he's evaluating what they're doing.  He never feels rushed and he often changes the play.  He's especially good recognizing the blitz, and usually puts a little pause in that backs it off somewhat.

 

[junior]

Has anyone who's attending received information about parking? It's been radio silent since I got my COVID test. 

[BillsFan619]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

So the weather looks like Partly Cloudy, fairly calm winds and CHILLY.

 

Excellent, Excellent.

Yup, cold enough to possibly affect a dome team. But, not nasty enough to neutralize our offense.

 

Go get it, Bills!

[Figster]

5 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Yes, and he always refers to the players on his team as men. Which I would like to think most coaches do, but it's just a respect kinda thing and these players have bought in. You can certainly tell that and that they believe in him and this staff and they have a ton of respect for him as well.

 

And that is ALWAYS a good thing and also one of the main things that builds a good, solid team.

Its just a gut feeling Duff, 

 

but something big is about to happen...

[Scott7975]

Josh is one of the most clutch QBs in the league.  Rivers is one of the most anti clutch QBs in the league especially in the playoffs.  

 

 

 

Saturday, January 9

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills—1:05 p.m. ET, CBS

The Bills are 6.5-point favorites with William Hill and are 9-10 to cover the spread in their first playoff game at home in 25 years, while the Colts are 5-2 underdogs.

Buffalo was a league-best 11-5 against the spread this season, covering the spread in 68.8 percent of games by an average of 5.6 points. Indianapolis, meanwhile, was 5-3 against the spread on the road but lost the only game it started as underdog on the road.

The over/under line in terms of total points scored is set at 46.5, which is somewhat conservative given both teams ranked in the top 10 in scoring offense in the NFL this season—the Bills scored a second-best 31.3 points per game, while the Colts put up a ninth-best 28.1 points per game.

[sven233]

The more I think about and break this game down, I think our success comes down to 2 things:

 

1.  The Offensive Line - If the offensive line can keep Allen clean and give him time to throw, then the offense will roll.  The only times Allen has remotely struggled this season is when teams are able to get to him extremely fast.  Luckily, thanks to our O-line, this hasn't happened all that often, or when it has, adjustments have been made and the rush inevitably slows down and Allen goes to work.  If the line can keep Allen clean, our offense should be just fine.

 

2. Early Game Defense - This kind of goes hand in hand with the point above.  If we can get a few early 3 and outs, and we can get up early, then we should be fine.  There are a lot of people out there saying that the Colts are just going to take the air out of the ball and pound it and try to win this game with timely scores and time of possession.  They want to use their great run game and passes to the backs out of the backfield to go on long drives and keep Allen off the field.  Well, the best way to counter this and get them out of this plan is to get up early.  If the defense can get 2-3 quick 3 and outs and the offense does their job as I mentioned above, and we can get an early 10-14 point lead, this game could be over real quick.

 

I really believe if these 2 things happen, we have a chance to roll in this game.  I don't think the Colts are good enough on the back end to slow down our passing game, and, if we get up early, I don't think they can go toe to toe with our offense.  So, get up a couple scores early, and it will change the entire game.

 

I know the narrative out there is that Josh still hasn't done it in the Playoffs and, no matter how good he is, until he proves it in the Playoffs, you can't count on him.  I think this is a bunch of garbage, personally.  I have 0 concerns about Allen.  Where he has struggled most in the past is decision making.  This year, especially since the bye week, he has proven to have all the answers no matter what defense you are running.  He can obliterate man coverage and, while he struggled a little bit with zone early in the season, has proven that he can beat zone coverage for big plays anywhere on the field, especially since the Bye week.  There is not a scheme you can run right now that is going to confuse him.  The mental side has caught up with his physical ability and that is why he is so scary right now.  Even if it takes a series or 2 to figure defense out, as soon as he does, he just torches them no matter whether it is man, zone, or a combination.

 

That is why above I mentioned that this game comes down to the offensive line.  They do their job and give Allen time to see the coverage, I have no doubt that Allen will figure out where to go with the ball.  And with his arm, even if it takes him a half second longer to do that, he can just fire laser beams that make up for that processing time.  It's what makes him so dangerous.  Anyway, I know this has gotten lengthy, but if those 2 things I mentioned happen above and we get out early, it could be a big party tomorrow.  If not, in the end, hopefully we find a way to squeak one out.  But, I think this team is on a mission and they have somersetting to prove.  Hopefully they step on the gas and never let up.

[Logic]

I just read in an Athletic article that Josh Allen led the league in EPA against Cover 2 defensive looks -- which just so happen to be the Colts defense's most used look throughout the season.

I also read that their pass defense overall has been struggling since week 10 or so, particularly against intermediate and deep passes.

Between those factors and starting corner Rock Ya-Sin missing the game, I just don't see how their defense is going to adequately slow down the Bills offense.

I just watched Peter King on NBC Sports talking about how Frank Reich remembers the Super Bowl gameplan the Giants used to beat the Bills: Run the ball, run the clock, limit possessions. If the Colts can do that successfully, they've got a shot. But no matter how many different ways I look at the matchup, I can't convince myself that the Bills are going to lose.

[sherpa]

14 minutes ago, Success said:

 

Of all the pleasant developments with Allen, his savvy at the line really stands out.  That is one thing that MANY QB's just never get - they have a hard time recognizing defenses and adjusting.  We've had a few of those over the drought years.

 

 

 

 

I think that is an accurate assessment.

He just looks like he is much more confident in getting into the right play, and seeing what is coming and what will beat it.

 

To digress, it reminds me of an interaction I had with a guy on an airplane who was at a 2007 UVA game and claimed to be an southeast scout for an NFL team which he wouldn't mention.

 

I asked him if he had seen our fourth round pick that year,  Ko Simpson and what he thought.

 

He kind of laughed and said "believe the wonderlic," with the inference being that Ko wasn't smart and wasn't a good pick.

 

Re Josh, believe the wonderlic.

[Buffalo4Life01]

When will today's injury report come out?  Will today just be a walk through/dress rehearsal?

[Rockinon]

Quote

The NFL Scouting Combine is all wrapped up, and many eyes were on the top quarterback talent in the upcoming 2018 NFL draft – notably former Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen.

Wonderlic test scores were recently released, and Josh Allen reportedly scored a 37 on the test.

How good is a 37? Extremely good. No quarterback has scored higher on the Wonderlic test than when Carson Wentz took it and got a 40. The average score for football players is about a 22 and the general population averages about a 20.

Here is what I found on Josh's wonderlic.  Wow. Never knew this.

[Big Turk]

This pretty much sums up what I thought:

 

Our offense against their defense is a much bigger mismatch than their O against our D

 

 

[Scott7975]

Saturday, Jan. 9

Buffalo Bills 31, Indianapolis Colts 21

1:05 p.m. ET (CBS) | Bills Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)

There's no particular reason the Bills should lose this game. They are a dominant, pass-first team in a pass-first league, peaking at the right time. Josh Allen hasn't just proven previous doubters like me spectacularly wrong this year; he's made the argument for my unemployment during an economic crisis.

The Bills finished first in weighted DVOA at Football Outsiders, which gives added importance to how a team performs later in the season. Even Buffalo's defense, which struggled early in the year, finished the season playing at a higher level than a sound Colts group that is similar to the Bills' D in many ways. Both units communicate well and don't give up big plays. They force opponents into long drives and each finished in the top five in takeaways. That's Indianapolis' best hope.

Despite Philip Rivers' bad decisions when trailing, the Colts finished second in turnover margin with the third-fewest giveaways in the NFL. If Indianapolis' big defensive playmakers like DeForest Buckner, Darius Leonard and Kenny Moore force a mistake or three and get a lucky bounce, the Colts could hang in this game. Jonathan Taylor has evolved from a struggling rookie to one of the 10 best running backs in football, so Indy could try the ol' shorten the game strategy against a superior opponent.

This is the perfect first playoff test for these Bills. The Colts are a quality opponent who will make Buffalo earn it, but they don't have enough firepower to hang in a shootout. If Frank Reich's offense goes stagnant for a few quarters, like it has regularly over the last month, the Bills could overcome any deficit or make this game uglier than the score I'm predicting.

[wjag]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

Saturday, Jan. 9

Buffalo Bills 31, Indianapolis Colts 21

1:05 p.m. ET (CBS) | Bills Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)

There's no particular reason the Bills should lose this game. They are a dominant, pass-first team in a pass-first league, peaking at the right time. Josh Allen hasn't just proven previous doubters like me spectacularly wrong this year; he's made the argument for my unemployment during an economic crisis.

 

 

That is pure gold.

[Just Joshin']

38 minutes ago, BillsFan619 said:

Yup, cold enough to possibly affect a dome team. But, not nasty enough to neutralize our offense.

 

Go get it, Bills!

I wonder if Reich had them practice outdoors this week?  If not, it will be a change of pace that will take some time to adjust.

[Figster]

15 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

Here is what I found on Josh's wonderlic.  Wow. Never knew this.

I was pretty sure without looking Ryan Fitzpatrick scored even higher then 40,  Fitz 48 ( just looked)   

 

Oh yeah, Josh Allen is one smart cookie...

Edited January 8, 2021 by Figster

[Patrick Duffy]

40 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Same exact feeling I had going into the Pats game... we should beat this team relatively easily; but I don’t know how to handle that feeling. I don’t know how to handle the idea of the Bills winning a playoff game (born in 96) so I am nervous as heck. Gonna be a long 24 hours.

Oh my.... damn you're still a baby (figure of speech), but I can certainly understand that's likely why you feel this way. In any event, a lot of us are feeling this way also. I mean I was born in 79 and started watching the Bills hardcore in 87. Lol damn, almost 10 years before you were born. I'm feeling old now.

 

Of course I remember the 4 Superbowls in a row like it was yesterday, but that has been so long that I also am nervous. More pumped up than nervous I guess I should say. In any event, it's been a very long time and so even us older fans and even the ones older than me are likely a little nervous or whatever.

 

So just because you're a young Bills fan that doesn't really know much success you are not alone in that feeling.

[Patrick Duffy]

48 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

I think Allen has gotten better at changing plays at the line and calling out protections, but it seems that the entire offense is really keyed in lately. The OL is blocking better. The WRs are running routes better. Allen deserves some credit for sure, but I really think what we are seeing is the whole team getting better.  Recently, Josh has been standing back there with all kinds of time to find an open receiver, with the exception of the Pittsburgh game. They made some adjustments in protections in the second half and of course pulled away at the end of that game. The boys on that OL have really been doing a nice job lately.

Agree, he has definitely gotten a lot smarter and can read defenses, yes and changing play calls when needed but, also want to point out the Bills have a lot more and better weapons than the Texans. I mean Watson did that to them and he doesn't have much to work with since the boneheaded trade of Hopkins.

 

If they are trying to compare Allen and Watson(who IMO are nothing alike), I think they have another thing coming. Also Allen has better arm strength. If I could pick which QB right now this season that I would rather my defense to play against between the two, I would rather go against Watson. That's just me though.

[Rockinon]

Don't think I have seen this posted anywhere. Really good article:

 

Anatomy of a wild-card win: In Josh Allen, the Bills must trust

 

There are 3 passing plays from various games throughout the season he does breakdown on. Very good stuff from Allen.

Edited January 8, 2021 by Rockinon