st pete gogolak Posted December 29, 2020 Posted December 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, unclepete said: Don’t want to okay the Dolphins. They’re well coached and beating a. Team 3 times in one season is really difficult. Too many opportunities for that staff to make adjustments. Is the "difficult to beat a team three times in one season" trope an actual thing or an urban legend? Anyone have any stats to illuminate?
SoCal Deek Posted December 29, 2020 Posted December 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, unclepete said: Don’t want to okay the Dolphins. They’re well coached and beating a. Team 3 times in one season is really difficult. Too many opportunities for that staff to make adjustments. I’ll take our game preparation over the Dolphins any day. They HAVE TO put it ALL out there this Sunday. They’ve got no time or room to come up with an entirely different plan to beat us again a week later. 2
wjag Posted December 29, 2020 Posted December 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said: Is the "difficult to beat a team three times in one season" trope an actual thing or an urban legend? Anyone have any stats to illuminate? I clearly remember Kelly doing it to the Dolphins. That's as far as my gray matter allows for such esoteric stats.
Whites Bay Posted December 30, 2020 Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Playoffs? said: Thad Brown posted earlier... Assuming BAL, TEN and IND win (which I think are safe assumptions), here’s who our Wildcard weekend opponent would be: PIT W & BUF W - Dolphins PIT W & BUF L - Ravens PIT L & BUF W - Colts PIT L & BUF L - Browns If this is reality, Frank Reich returns to Buffalo. Might be chilly.
djp14150 Posted December 30, 2020 Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Draconator said: Disclaimer: I know how to copy and paste like a champ! If the Bills beat Miami in week 17 37.5% chance of playing Miami 25% chance of playing Baltimore 25% chance of playing Cleveland 6.25% chance of playing Tennessee 6.25% chance of playing Indianapolis If the Bills lose to Miami in week 17 50% chance of playing Baltimore 25% chance of playing Cleveland 12.5% chance of playing Tennessee 12.5% chance of playing Indianapolis 0% chance of playing Miami there are 5 games so 2x2x2x2x2= 32 scenarios. the numbers match scenario count. Miami W they are 5 seed Trnnesse W or Indy lose they are division champs if you ignore the Tennessee game there are just 16 scenarios with conditions on tenn W/L.
Beast Posted December 30, 2020 Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Gene1973 said: Why do ppl insist on playing a division opponent in the playoff's? That is not what you want to hope for, not at all... So, Miami is hoping they don't play us, correct?
Beast Posted December 30, 2020 Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, Gene1973 said: I'd imagine yes. So, really, it doesn't matter whether it's a divisional opponent or not. Miami knows us. We know Miami. Whoever plays the better game will win. Just like opponents from another division or conference. 1 hour ago, st pete gogolak said: Is the "difficult to beat a team three times in one season" trope an actual thing or an urban legend? Anyone have any stats to illuminate? It's an urban legend as you say. https://www.google.com/amp/s/profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/02/beating-a-team-three-times-not-as-hard-as-it-sounds/amp/
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted December 30, 2020 Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, unclepete said: Don’t want to okay the Dolphins. They’re well coached and beating a. Team 3 times in one season is really difficult. Too many opportunities for that staff to make adjustments. i am with you. Playing a team 3 times is always a risk. Would rather draw the Colts or Browns.
djp14150 Posted December 30, 2020 Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Playoffs? said: Thad Brown posted earlier... Assuming BAL, TEN and IND win (which I think are safe assumptions), here’s who our Wildcard weekend opponent would be: PIT W & BUF W - Dolphins PIT W & BUF L - Ravens PIT L & BUF W - Colts PIT L & BUF L - Browns thad brow is a @#&&ing moron.... assume Balt and Ind W and TEN W IF PIT W and BUF W 2 BUF vs 7 MIA 3 PIT vs 6 IND 4 TEN vs 5 BAL IF PIT W and BUF L 2 PIT vs 7 IND 3 BUF vs 6 BAL 4 TEN vs 5 MIA compare the two below..... IF PIT L and BUF W 2 BUF vs 7 IND 3 PIT vs 5 CLE 4 TEN vs 5 BAL IF PIT L and BUF L 2 BUF vs 7 CLE 3 PIT vs 6 BAL 4 TEN 5 MIA in the later one if BUF W and PIT L ...BUF would play MIA/TEN winner which has a de ent chance of being Miami. in the s rnsrio above its baltimore ir Tennessee. I don’t think TEN has an easy win. It’s in Houston snd their last meeting Houston should have won but ten won in OT. If TEN lose they are out and it’s IND hosting MIA look ahead beyond the stop sign in front of you...
Beast Posted December 30, 2020 Posted December 30, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said: i am with you. Playing a team 3 times is always a risk. Would rather draw the Colts or Browns. https://www.google.com/amp/s/profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/02/beating-a-team-three-times-not-as-hard-as-it-sounds/amp/ Beating a team three times in a season is more likely than not once the first two wins are secured. Edited December 30, 2020 by Beast 1
Rock-A-Bye Beasley Posted December 30, 2020 Posted December 30, 2020 I want to win against Miami for a number of reasons. Not only does it make Indy and Miami more likely 1st round opponents, but it could help us avoid Baltimore and Tennessee altogether. (Or KC if they are upset) Not to mention the AFC east sweep. on the other hand, injuries could be more damaging than a tougher schedule.
Doc Brown Posted December 30, 2020 Posted December 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Gene1973 said: Why do ppl insist on playing a division opponent in the playoff's? That is not what you want to hope for, not at all... Because the division opponent is the Dolphins who rank in the 23rd on offense and 20th on defense in terms of yards.
Nextmanup Posted December 30, 2020 Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said: Because the division opponent is the Dolphins who rank in the 23rd on offense and 20th on defense in terms of yards. Some people believe in these football-isms as though they were etched in stone by God. "Thou shalt not play a division opponent; division opponents are tougher than regular opponents" and so on. The reality is it is all about matchups and the "better" team to play is the one you match up better against. I would rather play the Dolphins than a number of the other candidates this year, because we are the better team in the matchup. The fact that they are in our division, or that it might be the 3rd match up in the season, etc., are almost meaningless concerns in contrast. The Dolphins also don't have an elite QB, unlike a bunch of other teams we will have to worry about at some point, should we get far enough.
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted December 30, 2020 Posted December 30, 2020 It's hard to beat an opponent three times. Luckily we'd only need to beat them once. 1
Giuseppe Tognarelli Posted December 30, 2020 Posted December 30, 2020 3 hours ago, Draconator said: Disclaimer: I know how to copy and paste like a champ! If the Bills beat Miami in week 17 37.5% chance of playing Miami 25% chance of playing Baltimore 25% chance of playing Cleveland 6.25% chance of playing Tennessee 6.25% chance of playing Indianapolis If the Bills lose to Miami in week 17 50% chance of playing Baltimore 25% chance of playing Cleveland 12.5% chance of playing Tennessee 12.5% chance of playing Indianapolis 0% chance of playing Miami Wildly misleading. Not every potential outcome can be weighted with the same probability
Giuseppe Tognarelli Posted December 30, 2020 Posted December 30, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, Warcodered said: How many of the 8 QBs of the past could you identify easily? I get 6... Not sure on the other 2. McCoy McCown Tyrod Quinn Kizer Manziel Edited December 30, 2020 by Giuseppe Tognarelli
Max Fischer Posted December 30, 2020 Posted December 30, 2020 This is how I see the probabilities: Indy most likely to beat the Jags. (Indy must win and one team must lose) Ravens likely to beat the Bengals. (If Indy wins, they must win or someone else lose) Titans “should” beat Texans (If Indy wins, they must win or someone else lose) Cleveland could beat the Steelers (If Indy wins, they must win or someone else lose) If Indy, Ravens and Titans win and Browns and Bills win = #2 seed, host Colts Browns win and Bills lose = #2 seed, host Browns Browns lose and Bills win = #2 seed, host Dolphins Browns lose and Bills lose = #3 seed, host Ravens 1
Richard Noggin Posted December 30, 2020 Posted December 30, 2020 48 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said: How many of the 8 QBs of the past could you identify easily? I get 6... Not sure on the other 2. McCoy McCown Tyrod Quinn Kizer Manziel Kelly Holcomb, off the top of my head. Before his time in Buffalo. 1
Buffalo_Stampede Posted December 30, 2020 Posted December 30, 2020 (edited) I think Browns is the most likely. I'm hoping Baltimore and Tennessee face off as the 4 vs 5 also. Doesn't get any better IMO then Tennessee/Baltimore at KC and Pittsburgh at Buffalo in the Division round if we get that far. I think Houston can beat Tennessee also. I think Miami will beat Buffalo because we won't play to win. I think Cleveland beats Pittsburgh. I think Indy beats Jacksonville. So that would mean Cleveland at Buffalo. And Baltimore at Pittsburgh. Miami plays either Indy or Tennessee. Like I said earlier I think Houston can beat Tennessee. Edited December 30, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede 1
Franchiseneedsme Posted December 30, 2020 Posted December 30, 2020 Bills need to win to avoid Baltimore. That plus Guaranteeing the 2nd seed makes me believe the Bills will try and win the Miami game outright. Josh won't come out unless he is getting hammered or we are winning handily
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