SageAgainstTheMachine Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Doc said: In 2015? That was his 2nd season, like Knox's. Yep. Not that every project makes it like that (and honestly Adams may be an outlier) but it's good evidence that you don't just write off physically talented players because they haven't figured it out yet. That said I'm not opposed to drafting a TE before day 3. 1
Ya Digg? Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 14 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said: Five years ago Davante Adams was rated as the single worst WR in the NFL. 7 minutes ago, Doc said: In 2015? That was his 2nd season, like Knox's. Wait hold on-you guys are saying that someone can get better after their second year in the league?!?! I have personally read on this board that is impossible! 1 3
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, Ya Digg? said: Wait hold on-you guys are saying that someone can get better after their second year in the league?!?! I have personally read on this board that is impossible! We need a "dap" or a "high five" reaction emoji 1
Doc Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: TBH, the focus on the drops misses the real problem with Dawson Knox as a receiving TE: he's struggling to release off the line and to get separation. Ankles broken: 0. What was impressive about the seam catch he made wasn't so much the catch itself per se, but the hard physical move he made (arm over) to change direction, run his route properly, and get open. Never really noticed this.
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: OK, so some context first. Knox was 56% last year, and is 61% this year. Last year included some uncatchable balls thrown by a QB with 58.8% completion %, this year fewer uncatchable balls thrown by a QB with 69.1% completion %. Even if we give him a mulligan on last season, though, it's low. The average of all TE with more than 10 targets this season (I just pulled data from PFR and calculated) is 68%. The top TE have a catch % 70-75%. That said, we have to give a bit more context by looking at the catches Knox is asked to make. A typical TE has a high catch % because he's asked to catch a lot of "bunny" short passes as an outlet across the middle or as a checkdown guy near the sideline. Allen makes relatively few of those throws. Knox is asked to catch a lot of high DOD passes, more like a WR. I'm less concerned with Knox completion %, than I am with his scored drops. Drops aren't scored as balls a top receiver could catch. They're scored as balls that hit the receiver in the hands, or that show up in a relatively conservative "catch window". Knox has 4, out of 36 targets. Catch those, and his catch % goes up to 72%. this is great analysis. 1 1
Codyny13 Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 The talent is there...he flashes, but hasn’t put it all together. The news that many teams called about him at the trade deadline shows that the rest of the league knows he has the talent. I’m still excited about him.
Doc Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Codyny13 said: The talent is there...he flashes, but hasn’t put it all together. The news that many teams called about him at the trade deadline shows that the rest of the league knows he has the talent. I’m still excited about him. I missed that one. Link?
Codyny13 Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, Doc said: I missed that one. Link? Lemme take a look.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 53 minutes ago, Doc said: Never really noticed this. Have you looked? Have you gone through coaches film looking for Kroft and Knox and trying to answer the question "why aren't our TE more involved in our games"? Not just me - Cover 1 at 21:30 analyses one of the Dawson Knox catches praises his out route in a telling way "watch the little arm over- it's something you don't see that often from Dawson Knox, he's not that physical of a player..watch the violent and sudden arm over...". They're praising it here, because it's a physical style of play from him we haven't seen as much as we'd like to. Daboll and McDermott also praised how physical he was in the NE game. Reading between the lines, what's that tell ya? People are all caught up in the stiff-arms and physical play after the catch and don't pay attention to the details of how does he release, how often does he gain separation on his routes and how does he do it? Can he get thrown off his route or thrown off his timing by physical play?
stinky finger Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 On 12/29/2020 at 9:29 AM, Cray51 said: I think the bills are showing they can simply flirt with the idea of having a TE threat and it'll be enough. They need Knox because he has the vertical threat to open the field for others. If he drops one a game, I think it's down the priority list. I couldn't possibly disagree with this any more.
without a drought Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Ya Digg? said: Wait hold on-you guys are saying that someone can get better after their second year in the league?!?! I have personally read on this board that is impossible! I kept hearing Josh was going to get better in his 3rd year, but now we all know that it doesn't work that way.
stinky finger Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 On 12/29/2020 at 9:45 AM, jrober38 said: Having a tight end who can consistently get open, like Knox often is is an asset. I don't really care if he drops some passes. He's still a young player who was barely utilized in college. The glass is half full view is that he's almost always open, which is rare for a tight end in the NFL these days. Ok - but if you can't catch consistently.....
stinky finger Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 On 12/29/2020 at 9:53 AM, BisonMan said: I still like Knox. I'm not sure but I think his drops are down this year from last year (when I think he led the league!). He made two critical catches last night that had high difficulty ratings. The catch on 4th down with a DB crawling over his back was a great grab. The better catch was the sideline "Toe Drag Swag" catch on a Josh rollout. Great throw and great catch. Best of all, it gave me my video clip of the year after the Pats challenged that catch: If Knox can make BB do this once a year, I still want him on my team!!! 🤣 Except it wasn't Knox who made BB do this.
ColoradoBills Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 3 hours ago, CapeBreton said: I think Gerald Everett would be solid here, no idea how much he’d cost though. He is interesting. I'm guessing probably $3+ million per year will be what he wants. 1
stinky finger Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 On 12/29/2020 at 9:55 AM, Don Otreply said: I’ve read over over on this board that TE is one of the harder positions to learn and become proficient at, being that is likely the case, and that those who make the decisions appear to disagree with the Knox has to go crowd, one might surmise that Knox isn’t going anywhere soon. His potential is still so high in the eyes of the coaches that they are not willing to give up on him and are not done grooming him. Y’all gonna have to get comfortable with this being the most likely course for some time to come. Go Bills!!! End of the day - I agree with this. However, if DK doesn't clean up some of this, it will cost him his starting gig.
Chewmylegoff Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Ya Digg? said: Wait hold on-you guys are saying that someone can get better after their second year in the league?!?! I have personally read on this board that is impossible! No no no, that’s not right - it’s only impossible for a QB to improve accuracy after year 2.
Don Otreply Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 17 minutes ago, inaugural balls said: End of the day - I agree with this. However, if DK doesn't clean up some of this, it will cost him his starting gig. True, DK this season has lowered his drop rate by, iirc about nine percent, so he is on the right track as it were. 1
stinky finger Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, Don Otreply said: True, DK this season has lowered his drop rate by, iirc about nine percent, so he is on the right track as it were. I hope he improves. I really like the kid. It seems JA really likes him - that matters. 1
BuffaloBob Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 (edited) I see Dawson Knox the same way I saw a raw Josh Allen coming out of college, only perhaps more so. A kid with top notch athleticism, some flashes of tremendous upside, but a lot to learn to convert that upside into consistent high-level performance, especially in the pros. Knox played in only 18 games in four years at Ole Miss. He caught 39 passes over his entire college career (all in the last two seasons), for zero TDs. He was largely used as a blocker. How much good coaching did this kid really receive with regard to blocking technique, let alone running routes, getting off the line, finding the soft spots of a zone, etc.? How many reps did he get in practice catching balls in traffic, or at all? He has clearly improved, and hopefully like Josh, he will put in the hard work to make up for that lack of development in college. And hopefully, like Josh, he will eventually outgrow the boneheaded mistakes that come along with that limited development. I don't mind them drafting a TE if there is good value this year, but as long as the kid keeps improving, I'm happy to give him another season to see if that progress continues. He may just be a success story. Maybe not like Josh has become, but a success nevertheless. Edited January 2, 2021 by BuffaloBob
MrEpsYtown Posted January 2, 2021 Posted January 2, 2021 (edited) This guy has by far the most upside of any tight end we have had here for a very, very long time. He has game breaking potential. He will get there. he is improving. He’s an excellent blocker with that receiving upside. Do people prefer a Mark Campbell or Robert Royal? Maybe a Derek Fine or Derek Schouman type? We should continue to add to the position. Draft guys with upside. Maybe sign UFA Jacob Hollister, who is a nice compliment and gives you some H back factor as well as familiarity with our system and and a close connection to Josh Allen. But I think Knox will be a top ten tight end in the near future. He came in as raw as you can be to play a very complicated position. Our team asks him to do a lot. And we have had no OTAs etc. The fact that he has had the impact he has is actually pretty amazing. Edited January 2, 2021 by MrEpsYtown 2
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