What to do with Dawson Knox

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Ya Digg? said:

Imagine how this thread would’ve gone if he caught that ball- 4 catches, roughly 60 yards and a td. Plus Josh would’ve had 5 touchdown passes...so while that drop was terrible, it’s amazing how much focus is given to the drop and not the great catch along the sideline, his catch up the seam, or his 4th down catch. 
 

I’ll take what he brings to the table every game

 

We talked about the great, and more difficult, catches after the drop.  But him catching those is what makes the easy TD catch drop so maddening.

[Ya Digg?]

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

We talked about the great, and more difficult, catches after the drop.  But him catching those is what makes the easy TD catch drop so maddening.

Oh I yelled at the tv just like everyone else did and I know there has been talk about his other plays, I was just making commentary about how there’s just way too much focus on his mistakes. Especially for what he is getting paid and the fact that it’s only his second year, the guy is playing pretty well...definitely gives a dimension to the offense that quite frankly none of the other tight ends give 

[BarleyNY]

47 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

Oh I yelled at the tv just like everyone else did and I know there has been talk about his other plays, I was just making commentary about how there’s just way too much focus on his mistakes. Especially for what he is getting paid and the fact that it’s only his second year, the guy is playing pretty well...definitely gives a dimension to the offense that quite frankly none of the other tight ends give 

There’s no reason to move on from Knox at this time, but the Bills have got to find a more consistent and dependable TE.  Let him continue to develop and see what happens, but we can’t have him as the only guy capable of being TE1.  

[ColoradoBills]

On 12/31/2020 at 11:56 AM, Doc said:

Forget a FA TE.  Anyone who is decent will cost too much and the Bills don't have the cap room.  Take a flyer in the mid rounds on a guy with good measureables.  

 

I'm almost sure that after letting Kroft go they will sign a lower dollar UFA TE to come to camp to compete.

There are a lot of those type guys in FA this year that can be got for $2 million or less.

They'll try to see if a guy like that can excel in Buffalo.

 

They will then TRY to draft a TE they like in the middle to later rounds if one comes to them.

This is how I'm guessing they handle this but I'm pretty sure they don't spend a lot of a FA TE or a high draft pick like you said.

[Doc]

5 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I'm almost sure that after letting Kroft go they will sign a lower dollar UFA TE to come to camp to compete.

There are a lot of those type guys in FA this year that can be got for $2 million or less.

They'll try to see if a guy like that can excel in Buffalo.

 

They will then TRY to draft a TE they like in the middle to later rounds if one comes to them.

This is how I'm guessing they handle this but I'm pretty sure they don't spend a lot of a FA TE or a high draft pick like you said.

Anyone in free agency who looks to have promise?

[BearNorth]

Metzelaars had a 72% catch percentage for the years they recorded.  Knox is at 58%.  Metzelaars was Knox + Lee Smith in one package, HUGE target.

[ColoradoBills]

9 minutes ago, Doc said:

Anyone in free agency who looks to have promise?

 

I'm just throwing out the type of guys they could be interested in like an O'Shaughnessey (JAX) or a Trey Burton (IND).

Buffalo will be a destination spot next year and with the TE talent lacking there could be a lot of interest for UFAs.

 

Like I said not top end UFAs just decent players.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/tight-end/

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

On 12/29/2020 at 9:40 AM, billsfan1959 said:

In the immortal words of Homer Simpson: "Doh!"

 

 

ouch.... no pro should drop these on a regular basis.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

36 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Metzelaars had a 72% catch percentage for the years they recorded.  Knox is at 58%.  Metzelaars was Knox + Lee Smith in one package, HUGE target.

58%? That seems extremely bad. What’s a normal percentage for most TE’s in today’s NFL? 

[Special K]

On 12/31/2020 at 4:25 PM, Special K said:

I like Knox, and hope he continues to develop.

 

I think drafting another TE to pair with Knox is the way to go.

 

Tommy Tremble from Notre Dame is my guy.

 

Keep an eye on him in the college playoff game tomorrow(he’s #24). He’s a great run blocker, can play H-back, and has the speed to be a threat in the passing game. 

 

I think he he can do the things Gilliam, Lee Smith, and Kroft  can do all in one player.

 

He also seems like a “process” guy.

 

Get it done, McBeane!!

 

 

 

 

 

Tremble got hurt in the game, but nothing serious, if he can be had in the second or third round, the Bills should pick him up and pair him with Knox.

Edited January 2, 2021 by Special K

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

There’s no reason to move on from Knox at this time, but the Bills have got to find a more consistent and dependable TE.  Let him continue to develop and see what happens, but we can’t have him as the only guy capable of being TE1.  

SWEENEY !

[Doc]

26 minutes ago, BillsRdue said:

ouch.... no pro should drop these on a regular basis.

 

Looking at that in slo-mo, Knox isn't even looking at the ball when it hits his hands.

[BearNorth]

Tight End from Ohio State tonight is tearing Clemson a new one.

Anyone notice Justin Fields just threw a TD 60 yards in the air.  Suspect the Jets will be happy with him.

[Rick 'r Mortis]

42 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Tight End from Ohio State tonight is tearing Clemson a new one.

Anyone notice Justin Fields just threw a TD 60 yards in the air.  Suspect the Jets will be happy with him.

I'd be ecstatic if the Jets took him 😂

[Rochesterfan]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I seem to recall that Knox said he set up a Juggs machine at his parents house near Nashville and caught 200-250 balls a day.

 

It's probably a case of "practice does not make perfect - the RIGHT practice makes perfect". 

 

His problem seems to be that when he's catching a "gimme" ball, he is too aware of what's happening around him and gets distracted; also sometimes, he misses balls that are high or off center but catchable. 

 

Just catching 50 or 100 or 200 balls from a Juggs machine won't necessarily help that.  The issue would be how to come up with a realistic distraction while those balls are being caught - something that his athletic instincts will prompt him to dodge so he can learn to override them.  The most obvious would be to work with a trainer who can simulate a DB or LB closing to tackle him.  A buddy with a paintball gun, a water pistol loaded with something he doesn't like the smell of, a recording of noises he dislikes (or alerts to) that gets played randomly from different locations around him.  That kind of thing.

 

 

I would call the probability that Knox has absolute clarity on that point to be 99.99%

 

I think his biggest issue is how fairly early in his career he got that angry run for his play in Cincinnati and he wants to replicate that.  He knows physically he can dominate the smaller guys and therefore he takes his eyes off the ball before the catch looking to move upfield.  
 

You are 100% correct in that having a Jugs machine (as he did all summer) helps minimally as his hands themselves are not bad as can be seen by the tough catches.  Right now he lacks concentration to secure the catch and is more focused on what to do after the catch.

 

This is also the reason I don’t move on yet.  He is young with little experience catching balls in a game.  He is essentially learning a new position as TE in college versus the NFL is very different - especially in his current role where he can be split out wide, stacked at the end of the line, an inline blocker, an H-back, a full back, and a pitch guy out of the up back spot.
 

He is blocking a variety of players from DL/DE on pulls, to LBs and DBs on blitzes and he sometimes struggles with some assignments because of that, but he has gotten better and learned and there is no reason to assume he can not figure out the concentration issue and become a better receiver. 

[CapeBreton]

11 hours ago, Doc said:

Anyone in free agency who looks to have promise?

I think Gerald Everett would be solid here, no idea how much he’d cost though.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

58%? That seems extremely bad. What’s a normal percentage for most TE’s in today’s NFL? 

 

OK, so some context first.  Knox was 56% last year, and is 61% this year.  Last year included some uncatchable balls thrown by a QB with 58.8% completion %, this year fewer uncatchable balls thrown by a QB with 69.1% completion %.

 

Even if we give him a mulligan on last season, though, it's low. 

 

The average of all TE with more than 10 targets this season (I just pulled data from PFR and calculated) is 68%.  The top TE have a catch % 70-75%.

 

That said, we have to give a bit more context by looking at the catches Knox is asked to make.  A typical TE has a high catch % because he's asked to catch a lot of "bunny" short passes as an outlet across the middle or as a checkdown guy near the sideline.  Allen makes relatively few of those throws.  Knox is asked to catch a lot of high DOD passes, more like a WR. 

 

I'm less concerned with Knox completion %, than I am with his scored drops.  Drops aren't scored as balls a top receiver could catch.  They're scored as balls that hit the receiver in the hands, or that show up in a relatively conservative "catch window".  Knox has 4, out of 36 targets.  Catch those, and his catch % goes up to 72%.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Five years ago Davante Adams was rated as the single worst WR in the NFL.  

[Doc]

5 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Five years ago Davante Adams was rated as the single worst WR in the NFL.  

 

In 2015?  That was his 2nd season, like Knox's.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 hours ago, Doc said:

We talked about the great, and more difficult, catches after the drop.  But him catching those is what makes the easy TD catch drop so maddening.

 

TBH, the focus on the drops misses the real problem with Dawson Knox as a receiving TE: he's struggling to release off the line and to get separation.  Ankles broken: 0.

 

What was impressive about the seam catch he made wasn't so much the catch itself per se, but the hard physical move he made (arm over) to change direction, run his route properly, and get open.