What to do with Dawson Knox

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

The Bills can certainly contend for the SB in the next couple of years, next year in particular with a somewhat easier schedule could be their best shot.  I've seen it written more than once that TE is one of the hardest positions for a rookie to come in and excel at.

 

Having said that, I think the likelihood of drafting a guy in the 2nd round, (unless we make a trade late 2nd round)  and play better than Knox is playing right now is very low.  To find that guy would be more dumb luck than a well thought out plan as if he's that good, he's not lasting to close to pick #60.  In addition we have Sweeney, so would be concerned with having a TE group led by the guy many want to replace and two others that have no NFL game experience. 

 

Kroft is a FA, could see them trying to replace him with another experienced guy on the long end of career, like last season Olson.

 

In addition with this offense how many targets is the TE really going to get?  Allen is completing 69.1% of his passes, realistically how much better can that number get, the top QB in the entire league on completion percent is only 1.6% better.

 

Mahomes who has Kelce is 66.3%, almost 3% lower.  If you add up the top 3 receiving options on KC and Buffalo, the 3 from KC including Kelce have a total of about 200 more yards than the top 3 of the Bills, Diggs, Beasley, Davis.

 

Earlier in the season saw that the Bills run 4 WR 28% of the time (think it' still close to that number) so how much are you really going to utilize the TE?  There are a number of good TE's in the league admittedly currently playing better than Knox; Andrews, Gesicki, Hockenson, Henry, Engram to name a couple but not really sure better than when the Bills go with 4 WR's.  While those guys are good, there's only three really great TE's in the league, Gronk, Kittle, and Kelce, so unless you get very lucky and find that guy, I doubt you're overall improving the offense or changing the overall receptions, yards, etc, you're just changing who is making the catches.

 

Overall my take is would rather use their draft picks on CB, O-line likely only two of the trio of Morse, Feleciano, and Williams will be on the team next year and LB either way if they resign Milano or not, and even an edge rusher before I'd worry about TE.  I'd prefer giving Knox and Sweeney one more year, Knox to prove he's a capable starter and Sweeney to prove he can be the #2 guy, if not then next year 2022 draft or sign a FA to replace that guy.

[Bangarang]

You keep him with the obvious understanding that if he doesn’t get better at consistently catching the ball then we have to look at upgrading. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 but the statement was "the drops have not decreased", and they have.

 

 

Yep he's advanced from Dawson Drops to Knox-it-down.

[{::'KayCeeS::}]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yep he's advanced from Dawson Drops to Knox-it-down.

 

But he's playing better now.  It's undeniable.  We'll see what happens in the offseason, but right now I will start Knox over Kroft any day of the week and twice on Sundays...

 

[Thurman#1]

On 12/29/2020 at 11:57 PM, bobobonators said:

I totally agree to stick with him this season. If anything he has been improving. My original post was more in terms of looking at next season bc of the potential TE’s in the draft. I was wondering if we invest a first or even second rd pick on a TE. 

 

 

OK.

 

Personally, my bet on the odds of going TE in the 1st or 2nd round next year, when we seem very unlikely to be able to fill many holes in FA due to our bad cap situation ... roughly 5%. And I have the urge now that I've typed that to lower it.

 

Disclaimer: I'm not Beane, obviously. But that's my guess.

 

 

 

On 12/30/2020 at 12:04 AM, MJS said:

It's unrealistic to believe you can go get the best TE in the league. Kelce types don't grow on trees.

 

There are only a few elite TE's in the league. The rest are fairly mediocre.

 

 

While I agree with your overall sentiment here, there are definitely a bunch who fit in between elite and mediocre and are somewhere in the good to very good range.

 

Who would the elite guys be? Kelce and Kittle, certainly. Waller, maybe? Those three?

 

Guys like Gesicki, Hockenson, Fant, Hunter Henry, Hurst, Goedert, Engram, Hooper, the aging Gronk and probably a few more ... they aren't mediocre. But your point stands, I think. How would a GM feel having spent a 1st rounder and gotten a guy like most of these in my second group? IMO there are two or three who you might be pretty happy with, especially if your pick was in the 20s or 30s. Not more, though. How about the 2nd round? Would all of these guys look like good picks in the 2nd? Several more, probably, but I personally wouldn't trade a 2nd for many of them, even if they were coming in on rookie contracts that lasted four more years.

 

On a team that's going to have a few holes and three guys already on the roster that they would love to re-sign but might well not be able to get all three with the cap the way it is, I don't see them picking a TE early. Maybe another shot at a guy like Knox himself, in the mid-rounds? Yeah, I could definitely see that.

 

 

 

We'll see.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Buffalo Junction]

10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm all for affordable competition and Knox is unlikely to go anywhere on his rookie contract.

 

But factually, Knox's drops have almost cut in half (from 20% to 11%).  Visually to me his blocking has improved, and his physicality and moves as a route runner may be starting to improve.

 

It would be a fair point to say that 11% is still unacceptable for a good TE, but the statement was "the drops have not decreased", and they have.

But. But. But. Kelce’s drop percentage last year was 10.4% per PFF. Gulp. Say it ain’t so! 😭 
 

Facetiousness aside, TEs usually take a while to get up to full speed when they’re not freaks from a top program. Knox has issues with the easy catches in particular. That can be improved over time... as can his blocking. He may very well never turn into a top TE. Knox does represent a threat when he’s on the field though, and we shouldn’t neglect the reality that DCs view him as a guy that can exploit certain personnel and coverages. Even if he may drop the ball, Knox has to be accounted for which helps draw coverage away from the WRs and RBs. 

[Steve Evans]

Let him continue to mature. He is 24 years old and in his 2nd year, with this year being what it is. I think people think there are Kelce's (the best TE and possibly best receiver this year) in abundance in the draft!

[MJS]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

While I agree with your overall sentiment here, there are definitely a bunch who fit in between elite and mediocre and are somewhere in the good to very good range.

 

Who would the elite guys be? Kelce and Kittle, certainly. Waller, maybe? Those three?

 

Guys like Gesicki, Hockenson, Fant, Hunter Henry, Hurst, Goedert, Engram, Hooper, the aging Gronk and probably a few more ... they aren't mediocre. But your point stands, I think. How would a GM feel having spent a 1st rounder and gotten a guy like most of these in my second group? IMO there are two or three who you might be pretty happy with, especially if your pick was in the 20s or 30s. Not more, though. How about the 2nd round? Would all of these guys look like good picks in the 2nd? Several more, probably, but I personally wouldn't trade a 2nd for many of them, even if they were coming in on rookie contracts that lasted four more years.

 

On a team that's going to have a few holes and three guys already on the roster that they would love to re-sign but might well not be able to get all three with the cap the way it is, I don't see them picking a TE early. Maybe another shot at a guy like Knox himself, in the mid-rounds? Yeah, I could definitely see that.

 

We'll see.

Yes, those guys are good, but the dropoff in production in the guys other than Kelce, Kittle, and Waller is precipitous. Kelce and Waller have over 1000 yards receiving. After that? The rest of those guys are hovering around 600 yards receiving.

 

My opinion is you continue to target our good receivers. I don't know if bringing in a top TE is worth the investment when they will not be targeted as much as Diggs, Brown, and Beasley. If you want to draft a guy, that's fine. You might get lucky and find someone really good. But I would not go in free agency and pay the best TE available.

[scribo]

Knox is going to be a superstar. And I am confident he will still be wearing a charging buffalo when that comes to fruition. Even with his untimely drops, he's earned the coaching staff and Josh's trust. He wouldn't have the chance to drop passes otherwise. He was the skills, the intensity and the vision to get open. He's strong in YAC. I trust our coaching staff will get him where he can go, and it will all be worthwhile in the end. 

[bobobonators]

4 hours ago, scribo said:

Knox is going to be a superstar. And I am confident he will still be wearing a charging buffalo when that comes to fruition. Even with his untimely drops, he's earned the coaching staff and Josh's trust. He wouldn't have the chance to drop passes otherwise. He was the skills, the intensity and the vision to get open. He's strong in YAC. I trust our coaching staff will get him where he can go, and it will all be worthwhile in the end. 

Hopefully! I dont dislike him, just frustrated by his mind-numbing drops at times. Sometimes that cant be fixed. But he does have all the physical tools

Edited January 1, 2021 by bobobonators

[Doc]

12 minutes ago, bobobonators said:

Hopefully! I dont dislike him, just frustrated by his mind-numbing drops at times. Sometimes that cant be fixed. But he does have all the physical tools

 

Yeah, they're maddening, but he's cut them in half.  I didn't realize that and hopefully a sign of things to come.

[Greatdane21]

Not having a camp this year hurt him ! 
really needs to take a ball machine home and catch 200 balls a day in the off season 

has the size ,speed just needs to get the hands Fixed because now he’s ( Charles Clay ) 

 

this organization as a whole has not been successful picking Tight Ends over the years as they have always

wanted a blocker first  instead of a big wr  hence Sweeney who may or may not play again due to heart issues

having the established QB like Allen will help future TE candidates succeed 

they need to keep turning over rocks and eventually they will find a good one

[Warcodered]

On 12/31/2020 at 2:36 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm all for affordable competition and Knox is unlikely to go anywhere on his rookie contract.

 

But factually, Knox's drops have almost cut in half (from 20% to 11%).  Visually to me his blocking has improved, and his physicality and moves as a route runner may be starting to improve.

 

It would be a fair point to say that 11% is still unacceptable for a good TE, but the statement was "the drops have not decreased", and they have.

I mean barring one drop he would of had a great day Monday.

[Bferra13]

15 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

OK.

 

Personally, my bet on the odds of going TE in the 1st or 2nd round next year, when we seem very unlikely to be able to fill many holes in FA due to our bad cap situation ... roughly 5%. And I have the urge now that I've typed that to lower it.

 

Disclaimer: I'm not Beane, obviously. But that's my guess.

 

 

 

 

 

While I agree with your overall sentiment here, there are definitely a bunch who fit in between elite and mediocre and are somewhere in the good to very good range.

 

 

 

 

 

Tight end is a tough position to draft high. Look at Hock there in Detroit... He's gonna be a fine player no doubt, but when you have guys like Kelce and Kittle being drafted in round 3 and beyond, no need imo. Approach the TE position like you approach RB's. Try and hit on a high ceiling guy later. 

 

Also, to your point, the cap situation is another reason not to pick TE high. Thats a luxury pick and not a dire need when we lose one of our LB's and whoever else on free agency.

[whorlnut]

Draft Pat Freiermuth and let them compete. Knox hasnt had a lot of competition since his rookie year. Make him earn it. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Greatdane21 said:

Not having a camp this year hurt him ! 
really needs to take a ball machine home and catch 200 balls a day in the off season 

has the size ,speed just needs to get the hands Fixed because now he’s ( Charles Clay ) 

 

this organization as a whole has not been successful picking Tight Ends over the years as they have always

wanted a blocker first  instead of a big wr  hence Sweeney who may or may not play again due to heart issues

having the established QB like Allen will help future TE candidates succeed 

they need to keep turning over rocks and eventually they will find a good one

 

I seem to recall that Knox said he set up a Juggs machine at his parents house near Nashville and caught 200-250 balls a day.

 

It's probably a case of "practice does not make perfect - the RIGHT practice makes perfect". 

 

His problem seems to be that when he's catching a "gimme" ball, he is too aware of what's happening around him and gets distracted; also sometimes, he misses balls that are high or off center but catchable. 

 

Just catching 50 or 100 or 200 balls from a Juggs machine won't necessarily help that.  The issue would be how to come up with a realistic distraction while those balls are being caught - something that his athletic instincts will prompt him to dodge so he can learn to override them.  The most obvious would be to work with a trainer who can simulate a DB or LB closing to tackle him.  A buddy with a paintball gun, a water pistol loaded with something he doesn't like the smell of, a recording of noises he dislikes (or alerts to) that gets played randomly from different locations around him.  That kind of thing.

 

On 12/31/2020 at 3:48 PM, Bangarang said:

You keep him with the obvious understanding that if he doesn’t get better at consistently catching the ball then we have to look at upgrading. 

 

I would call the probability that Knox has absolute clarity on that point to be 99.99%

[Charles Romes]

It said a lot to me when Josh keep giving him chances after yet another horrendous drop on Monday. If Josh believes in him, I believe in him 

[Matt_In_NH]

It might not work out but its not time to throw dirt on the guy yet.

[Doc]

18 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

It said a lot to me when Josh keep giving him chances after yet another horrendous drop on Monday. If Josh believes in him, I believe in him 

 

This is the most telling thing of all.  If Josh had been as upset at Knox dropping that TD as some of us fans were, he wouldn't have looked his way again in the game.

[Ya Digg?]

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

I mean barring one drop he would of had a great day Monday.

Imagine how this thread would’ve gone if he caught that ball- 4 catches, roughly 60 yards and a td. Plus Josh would’ve had 5 touchdown passes...so while that drop was terrible, it’s amazing how much focus is given to the drop and not the great catch along the sideline, his catch up the seam, or his 4th down catch. 
 

I’ll take what he brings to the table every game