Meaningless late season games

[Bills fan since 87]

7 minutes ago, Beast said:

 

So, you'd rather play at Pittsburgh or at Tennessee in the playoffs instead of at home?

 

That makes zero sense.

 

I would 100% rather play on the road than at home with an injured star.  Especially this year.

[Da webster guy]

29 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

Not sure where or how this narrative that these games are “meaningless” began. It’s wrong.

 Jets game last year week 17.  Totally meaningless, sat everyone, gameplanned for Houston.   

[billsfan89]

Definitely not meaningless as the seeding is important. I think a win tonight clinches a 3 seed. The 3 seed is important because it ensures you avoid KC until the AFCCG. The 2 seed is also still in play which gives you homefield for the first two rounds and against anyone besides KC. But it is nice to have the playoffs and a good seed locked up with 2 games left to go. It feels good to be jockeying for position as to hoping to squeak in or wondering if this team has been eliminated yet. During the drought years by week 16 most seasons this team would have been officially eliminated and we would be hoping to lose out to get a better draft pick.

[The Frankish Reich]

1 minute ago, Bills fan since 87 said:

 

I would 100% rather play on the road than at home with an injured star.  Especially this year.

Exactly. I don't have the numbers, but just from memory let's think about a few key players - Allen, Diggs, Beasley, Brown, Morse, Dawkins on offense; Hughes, Edmunds, Milano, Tre, Hyde, Poyer on defense. That's half a dozen guys on each side of the ball where losing him - or even having him hobbled, even for one playoff game - would cause a serious drop-off in performance. I think everyone but Diggs and Dawkins (maybe Poyer? Hughes?) has been nicked up in a game in noticeable way this year.

What are the chances that at least 1 or 2 of these guys suffers a significant injury in any given game? Would it be 20%? 30%? I can't really see it being lower when you take into account injuries that might not knock a guy out of a game yet will diminish his ability to perform. 

That's an unacceptable risk when the benefit side of the equation is something like "a slight chance of hosting a later round playoff game if the Chiefs or Steelers lose early." That's why you sit key players. And it's even more important this year with the loss of the bye week for division champs.

 

[Johnny Hammersticks]

26 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Exactly. I don't have the numbers, but just from memory let's think about a few key players - Allen, Diggs, Beasley, Brown, Morse, Dawkins on offense; Hughes, Edmunds, Milano, Tre, Hyde, Poyer on defense. That's half a dozen guys on each side of the ball where losing him - or even having him hobbled, even for one playoff game - would cause a serious drop-off in performance. I think everyone but Diggs and Dawkins (maybe Poyer? Hughes?) has been nicked up in a game in noticeable way this year.

What are the chances that at least 1 or 2 of these guys suffers a significant injury in any given game? Would it be 20%? 30%? I can't really see it being lower when you take into account injuries that might not knock a guy out of a game yet will diminish his ability to perform. 

That's an unacceptable risk when the benefit side of the equation is something like "a slight chance of hosting a later round playoff game if the Chiefs or Steelers lose early." That's why you sit key players. And it's even more important this year with the loss of the bye week for division champs.

 

 

Then why wouldn’t Beane just call it a day and sit the starters tonight as well?  We already have the division wrapped up and a home playoff game secured anyway.  The #2 seed is very important, and the starters should play as long as there is something at stake.

 

If there was absolutely nothing to gain, fine.  Rest all the starters.

 

Buffalo has worked to hard to lay down now and just settle for the 3 or 4 seed.  What message would folding now send to the players?  This take is hot garbage, IMO.

[Reks Ryan]

My thought is the Bills should go all out (play as usual) tonight, to wrap up the 3 seed at worst.   Then you make a decision which guys to rest in the last game, depending  on health, or pull guys early based on game situation.

 

Depending which match up, you prefer there is some luck involved.   Let's say you prefer not to play Ravens in round 1.  If Baltimore wins and Miami wins against Buffalo next week, then  Baltimore will stay in the 6th seed and play the 3 seed.   So then it comes down to CLE beating PIT to make the playoffs as 7 seed against the 2 see Bills.   There's also the scenario where both BAL and CLE lose and the Ravens back in as the 7th seed, and the Bills keep 2 seed and play them anyway. 

 

I also expect PIT to lose in the first round, which would give the Bills potential for 2nd home game even from the 3 seed.

 

 

[djp14150]

1 hour ago, Bills fan since 87 said:

 

If there was true home field advantage or a bye at stake I'd agree.  When your locked into a spot (like last year) or there is no real advantage at stake (like this year) I'd say the games hold little meaning outside our health.

 

im fine winning tonight, resting guys week 17 and being locked in at 2 or 3.  With no fans going on the road doesn’t matter in the playoffs.

 

peopleforget the nfl playoffs isn’t a bracket format...it’s best vs worst.

 

if buffalo wins tonight and rests week 17 and loses the playoffs will look lime

 

Miami at south winner

6/7 at 2/3

division round 

lowest seed at KC

buffalo vs Pitt or 2nd lowest seed

 

AlsoIf Pitt beats Cleveland they could be playing them or Indy the next week.  They might not want to do that.

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by djp14150

[The Frankish Reich]

9 minutes ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

 

Then why wouldn’t Beane just call it a day and sit the starters tonight as well?  We already have the division wrapped up and a home playoff game secured anyway.  The #2 seed is very important, and the starters should play as long as there is something at stake.

 

If there was absolutely nothing to gain, fine.  Rest all the starters.

 

Buffalo has worked to hard to lay down now and just settle for the 3 or 4 seed.  What message would folding now send to the players?  This take is hot garbage, IMO.

I dunno. We play Belichick tonight. Maybe someone should ask him whether resting his starters is the reason they failed to win a SB.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

8 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I dunno. We play Belichick tonight. Maybe someone should ask him whether resting his starters is the reason they failed to win a SB.

 

Give me an example of a year where Belichick rested his starters when there was seeding and potential home playoff games at stake.  Don’t worry...I’ll wait.

[Chandler#81]

Well, there’s this..🤷‍♂️

 

I gotcher Stones, Kay!

 

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, Bills fan since 87 said:

 

I would 100% rather play on the road than at home with an injured star.  Especially this year.

 

You are talking from a fans perspective.

Every player on the Bills roster wants to have time on the field tonight to win THIS game.

Even if McDermott wanted to sit the starters he knows he can't.  The players would not like that at all.

 

Next week is a different story and will be evaluated when it comes.

[ProcessAccepted]

1 hour ago, Bills fan since 87 said:

 

If there was true home field advantage or a bye at stake I'd agree.  When your locked into a spot (like last year) or there is no real advantage at stake (like this year) I'd say the games hold little meaning outside our health.

January weather in Buffalo is still home field advantage. Not having to travel is home field advantage. Agreed the lack of a stadium filled with fans lessens things but playing in your stadium in your weather helps the home team. Just look how Tennessee faired in Green Bay last night.

[jaybee]

We can lock in 2nd overall seed (additional home game)  and maybe beat the team that has absolutely owned us for 2 decades.  I dont call that meaningless, nor do the players, coaches or owners.  GO BILLS !!

[RyanC883]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

I think, in terms of winning a Super Bowl, tonight is important. 

 

Most likely, anyone coming out of the AFC has to face KC at some point, but you don't want to face them in the Second Round, coming off a bye week.

 

As far as next week goes, I have no clue how McDermott will handle it.  If we think Steelers are laying down, I'm sure we will also.  If not, who knows how much value McD puts on guaranteed home field until the AFCCG and avoiding the perceived tougher WC team in Baltimore.

 

I’d almost rather face KC off a bye.  perhaps somewhat rusty, esp on D. 

22 minutes ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

 

Give me an example of a year where Belichick rested his starters when there was seeding and potential home playoff games at stake.  Don’t worry...I’ll wait.

 

dude got extremely lucky that looking at Brady wrong was a penalty. playing with fire there.  plus, Allen likes to hold it longer. I’m not risking the playoffs in week 17 for seeding without an accompanying bye. 

[PrimeTime101]

The advantage of being in this position, already in the playoffs is it takes the pressure off the team in general. Do they want to win every game? of course.. Does this game mean something? absolutely... But there is less pressure cause no matter what happens.. .

a. your not getting a bye

b. you still have to beat teams to get to the conference game.

 

Do they want it at home? again.. absolutely but they not going through same stress as other teams are having to win out. 

 

Meaningless? noooo... lol 

Less Stressful? mmhm

 

I would say a team like the Steelers who has been through a struggle last few weeks have way more pressure on them then us. Just saying.

Edited December 28, 2020 by PrimeTime101

[Johnny Hammersticks]

 

For those of you who are wondering...

[The Frankish Reich]

58 minutes ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

 

Give me an example of a year where Belichick rested his starters when there was seeding and potential home playoff games at stake.  Don’t worry...I’ll wait.

1. Home field isn't the advantage it was when fans were in the stands. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/11/11/home-field-advantage-is-lie/

 

2. If we were playing for a bye, sure. Because that's the week off that is so valuable, which is kind of the whole point here. But we're not.

 

3. Of course we'll see what's at stake in Week 17 after tonight. But unless there's a tangible benefit to winning, the value of resting key starters and avoiding injury almost certainly outweighs winning the game.

 

You mentioned something intangible like "what it would say to the players." I don't know what to make of that. My point is that there is no evidence, not even anecdotal, that any team has reacted poorly to resting its starters ahead of the playoffs. If there's a message being sent by resting starters wouldn't it be "we're good enough to beat anyone with our regulars, so why risk playing them in week 17?" How that could be demoralizing is beyond me.

[Beast]

2 hours ago, Bills fan since 87 said:

 

I would 100% rather play on the road than at home with an injured star.  Especially this year.

Hopefully the Bills won't feel the way you do. If the Bills lose a close second round game on the road because they shut things down, McDermott should deservedly feel a whole lot of heat.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 hours ago, Bills fan since 87 said:

What a strange and wonderful feeling to have again!  Both this year, and to an extent last years as our WC spot was locked up a couple weeks before the season ended.

 

I recall late season games from my highschool days when the Bills won 4 straight AFC championships (that's how I prefer to remember it) that didnt matter in the standings.

 

I remember them not being boring but relaxing before the anxiety would get turned all the way up before the playoffs.

 

They were fun games because you could see the backups try to thwart other teams playoff chances to shine in their opportunities.  All the while knowing we were about to go play in the Superbowl tournament regardless of what happened.

 

The only stress is injuries but with the backups in that's even minimal.   

As far as I'm concerned pull the starters at the half tonight and let's enjoy some stress free football the next 2 weeks.   Go Bills!

 

They lost those four SuperBowls.  Maybe they should have played to win those games.

I know that is facetious. 

 

There is no right answer.  If you play to win and someone gets injured then it was the wrong decision.  If you rest everyone and lose the first game it was the wrong decision.  In general I used to believe you rest people.  The more I manage people, I do think there is a real issue of dialing down and turning up the intensity and disrupting the normal routine.  

[Casey D]

1 hour ago, jaybee said:

We can lock in 2nd overall seed (additional home game)  and maybe beat the team that has absolutely owned us for 2 decades.  I dont call that meaningless, nor do the players, coaches or owners.  GO BILLS !!

No.  Win tonight locks in 3rd seed. Next week we have to match whatever the Steelers do to get the second seed.  Bills will not rest anyone tonight.  If they win, the issue next week is rest v. 2nd or 3rd seed.  If Pittsburgh is competing with us for the 2 seed next week, I'm not sure risking injury to get a home playoff game against Pitt v. on the road against Pitt is worth it (assuming Pitt wins in the first playoff round, and so too the Bills).  That will be the main issue.  Not tonight.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Casey D