Predict Josh Allen's Next Contract

[Franchiseneedsme]

11 years 350M, $200M Guaranteed, $50M SB.

This and everyone is happy

Josh will take a deal like this. It Guaranteeshim $200 Millon dollars, keeps the team competitive cap wise for the rest of his career, and put $70 M in his pocket in the first year.  I dont think Josh will be anything like Dak was. 

[Locomark]

Can’t Josh just create a personal training company that the Bills use so we can just pay him $20 mil and give him the same amount in professional service contracts ? It seemed to work pretty well for another team...

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Billl]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

I completely disagree. Mega contracts are just easy to fingerpoint at.

 

The $6M difference between Mahomes' and Watson's contracts is not going to be the difference between the success of those two teams. The difference will be drafting well, finding and keeping key FA's, and overall success at team-building.

I think we sort of agree.  $6M spread across an entire roster doesn’t come close to making up the difference between the true value of the two players.  The difference would need to be at least $20M to even start a conversation. 
 

There isn’t a franchise in the league who would rather have Watson than Mahomes even when you factor in Watson’s cheaper price tag.  Mahomes plus $170M in cap space to build a roster is infinitely preferable to Watson plus $176M just as Allen plus $175M is better than Mayfield plus $180M.

[FireChans]

18 minutes ago, Billl said:

I think we sort of agree.  $6M spread across an entire roster doesn’t come close to making up the difference between the true value of the two players.  The difference would need to be at least $20M to even start a conversation. 
 

There isn’t a franchise in the league who would rather have Watson than Mahomes even when you factor in Watson’s cheaper price tag.  Mahomes plus $170M in cap space to build a roster is infinitely preferable to Watson plus $176M just as Allen plus $175M is better than Mayfield plus $180M.

Yep.

 

But more to the point is that if the QB isgood enough (aka franchise), their contracts are not the reason for the teams' results.

 

Alex Smith, Matt Stafford and Tannehill were at one point all making similar money. Smith and Stafford were making $17M AAV, and Tanny was making $19M AAV. Now weren't all the exact same QB's but they were in that tier of decent to good QB's.

 

But Smith's teams were always the best of the 3. He won the most. I'm sure some folks said the Dolphins or the Lions QB contracts were too big or too cap prohibitive but it just wasn't really the case. The Chiefs were just a better team.

[JoshAllenReceipts]

True value: 10 years, $500 Million

 

Team-friendly deal that's fair for both sides: 5 years, $225 Million

[qwksilver]

12 hours ago, nucci said:

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/d3c61477-82b8-4ba7-8574-394a42c622e6

I don't think Brady had much of a choice and they really never put great players around him

Hey those rub and tugs might be cheap. But the high class professionals that travel are way more expensive. Kraft needs to be liquid for that action. 😆

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

If you buy out the option year I'd say 5 and 200. Makes him 2nd highest paid qb, and it's probably an overpay.

[2ForMacAdoo]

14 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I'm wondering if Josh is going to do a Brady, and take less money to be sure the Bills can sign guys to put around him.  If I were Terry and Beane, I might sit down with Josh and his agent, and offer something like a 15 year contract at 20 million per, with a guaranteed personal services contract with he team for 20 years after that at a few million a year.   

I like your thinking. The problem with this reasoning is Brittney Williams doesn't make in the neighborhood of Giselle Bundchen $$.

[QLBillsFan]

15 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

You aren't wrong!

 

 

FYI...For those crazy people that voted 30-34 AAS, remember that this past offseason Dak turned down a 5 year deal worth 175 mil (or 35 AAS)...

Well Dak is a fool, and not as good. 

[Mango]

Curious what the next class or two QB contracts looks like in general. If we have some states/teams still having attendance guidelines in place next September, we could be looking at another lowered cap. Tough pill to swallow for some teams if your QB is pushing the 40M AAV mark. I wonder if we see the cost of a QB possibly drop because of it. 

Or maybe not since Mahomes signed a possible $500M contract during the pandemic. 

[Franchiseneedsme]

17 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

 

FYI...For those crazy people that voted 30-34 AAS, remember that this past offseason Dak turned down a 5 year deal worth 175 mil (or 35 AAS)...

And Dak got totally screwed. Nothing helped the Bills negotiations with Allen like the Dak situation.  I think Allen will sign a long term contract with a high Guaranteed #  around 30-35 per.  It's hard for a player to turn down something like $170M guaranteed.   

Beane is going to get this done and look like the best GM in the league

[Magox]

I I think they take the first offer the Bills make to him.  I think he would play for a slight hometown discount to help win Championships.  I think we are probably talking about a 7 year $290m contract

[SoCal Deek]

This really can't be that complicated. I'm guessing the number and terms will be pretty easy to calculate when the time comes. Franchise QBs are pretty darn finite in number. The harder positions to calculate are guys like Milano, etc.  I'm pretty sure that's where Beane has to do some real calculatin'

[QLBillsFan]

33 minutes ago, Franchiseneedsme said:

And Dak got totally screwed. Nothing helped the Bills negotiations with Allen like the Dak situation.  I think Allen will sign a long term contract with a high Guaranteed #  around 30-35 per.  It's hard for a player to turn down something like $170M guaranteed.   

Beane is going to get this done and look like the best GM in the league

How exactly did Dak get screwed? He’s had the one of the best OL’s and RB’s on this O. Decent but not elite QB. Top 12-14. His agent should have run a marathon overnight to sign that deal!

[ghostwriter]

5yrs $186M $125M gtd 

 

That would put him in the top 3 as far as AAV. More guaranteed money.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

10 years - 400 million. $125 million guaranteed. 

 

Edited December 21, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Gen2]

On 12/20/2020 at 1:05 PM, Norcalbillsfan said:

But the good news is I truly believe josh wants to stay in Buffalo and will probably take a great contract instead of test the market for a crazy high contract from a terrible team.

 

 

If I were Josh Allen (and I'm not) it would depend on how the Bills organization approached his contract negotiation. If they come to him before they really have to, and say you've out performed your rookie contract, and we want to pay you what we can to be our QB of the future ... then we talk a deal that would benefit both myself AND the team. Meaning I'll get paid a ton of money, but not to the point where the organization will have to make personnel decisions on other players, based on the shear size of MY contract.

 

If the organizations attitude is that it would be a crazy business decision for us to pay you a penny more than we have to, a day earlier than we have to. Then MY position would be, it would be a crazy business decision to accept a penny less than what another team would offer me ... I like it here and all, so I'll bring my best offer back to you and give you a chance to beat it ... but we're talking business after all.

[Shaw66]

I continue to expect Josh to give a discount. Josh is the perfect team guy. He won't take the last dollar. 

 

I'm really not interested in the business end of football,  no idea what a contract should look like.  The only question I'm interested in is should Josh be extended, and I was sure of that after his rookie year.  

20 minutes ago, Gen2 said:

 

 

If I were Josh Allen (and I'm not) it would depend on how the Bills organization approached his contract negotiation. If they come to him before they really have to, and say you've out performed your rookie contract, and we want to pay you what we can to be our QB of the future ... then we talk a deal that would benefit both myself AND the team. Meaning I'll get paid a ton of money, but not to the point where the organization will have to make personnel decisions on other players, based on the shear size of MY contract.  This will happen.

 

If the organizations attitude is that it would be a crazy business decision for us to pay you a penny more than we have to, a day earlier than we have to. Then MY position would be, it would be a crazy business decision to accept a penny less than what another team would offer me ... I like it here and all, so I'll bring my best offer back to you and give you a chance to beat it ... but we're talking business after all. This will not.

 

[Gen2]

14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I continue to expect Josh to give a discount. Josh is the perfect team guy. He won't take the last dollar. 

 

I'm really not interested in the business end of football,  no idea what a contract should look like.  The only question I'm interested in is should Josh be extended, and I was sure of that after his rookie year.  

 

 

I think Josh is a stand up guy. IMHO there are guys that the number figure they get paid is some kind of status symbol, and there are guys that the figure they get paid is just a number. Josh strikes me as the kind of guy that when you talk about 300/400/500 millions it just doesn't matter, he would be just as comfortable for the rest of his life with 300 million as he would with 500 million. Josh doesn't seem to be the bright lights big city, look at me kind of guy ... he drives a Ford pickup truck for gods sake, Diggs on the other hand drives a white on white Bentley. Don't get me wrong, Diggs has EARNED every nut and bolt on that Bentley, but it's a status thing, they are two different people with two different motivations, and two different situations (and neither is wrong or more right).

 

What I was driving at with my post is that the Bills organization is in the drivers seat with contract negotiations, and if the bean counters want to look at it as a business deal, then the player should also look at it as a business deal.