Predict Josh Allen's Next Contract

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Should be  60 million a year but Josh isnt greedy so 30 million.

 

 

 

[Nuncha]

I don't know what it will be but they need to lock that boy up and keep him in Buffalo for his career.

[DCbillsfan]

Allen will get paid.  Seems to me Tre White gave the Bills a fair deal.  I'm confident Beane will get it done and give the team flexibility in re-structuring going forward. 

 

Bills are entering a window where upcoming drafts become even more important.  Need to replace some players with guys on rookie contracts.

[PrimeTime101]

So I'm going to break this question down..

 

First.. this topic has been talked about for a long time.. Pick up 5th year or pay the man... You do not want to set a precedence by forcing high caliber players to wait a year on a big contract. The last thing I wanted Josh to do is chuck it down the field 50 yards and catch the ball on stride.. Check...That side line pass to Diggs was stupid good..

 

Contract Length. The shorter the length the more chance that opens things up on Josh leaving us after that year. if for some reason things go bad. 6-7 years makes sense. 

 

How much? The longer you wait the more your going to pay him. He proves he wan win a playoff game... bam add a few more mil a year.. He proves he can get us to the AFC Champ Game.. Boom a few more mill.. He gets you to a super bowl.. few more mill.. He WINS? 10 mil more.

 

His contract numbers will be based on how he evolves in the playoffs this year..

 

If he does not win a Playoff game? 30-34 Mil.  Wins one game. 33-35 Mil. Gets us to the afc champ game? 38 mil.

 

Gets to a super bowl .. 40+.. Wins a super bowl? 45+

 

its to early to gauge 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

2 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

So I'm going to break this question down..

 

First.. this topic has been talked about for a long time.. Pick up 5th year or pay the man... You do not want to set a precedence by forcing high caliber players to wait a year on a big contract. The last thing I wanted Josh to do is chuck it down the field 50 yards and catch the ball on stride.. Check...That side line pass to Diggs was stupid good..

 

Contract Length. The shorter the length the more chance that opens things up on Josh leaving us after that year. if for some reason things go bad. 6-7 years makes sense. 

 

How much? The longer you wait the more your going to pay him. He proves he wan win a playoff game... bam add a few more mil a year.. He proves he can get us to the AFC Champ Game.. Boom a few more mill.. He gets you to a super bowl.. few more mill.. He WINS? 10 mil more.

 

His contract numbers will be based on how he evolves in the playoffs this year..

 

If he does not win a Playoff game? 30-34 Mil.  Wins one game. 33-35 Mil. Gets us to the afc champ game? 38 mil.

 

Gets to a super bowl .. 40+.. Wins a super bowl? 45+

 

its to early to gauge 

I think that Beane and company already have a number in mind. Winning a Super Bowl this year probably wouldn’t create a 10-15 million dollar swing per year for the next seven years vs if they lose round 1. 
 

Your logic seems to make sense if they were playing him for just this season but when you look at it long term, I doubt the front office is going to let this one season’s post season performance drastically change what they believe he is worth (barring some crazy circumstances) 

 

IMO.

[H2o]

I think they pick up the 5th year option and get a contract done afterwards just like with Tre. I say the deal will be 7 years, $315,000,000 with $210,000,000 guaranteed. 

[Norcalbillsfan]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I'm wondering if Josh is going to do a Brady, and take less money to be sure the Bills can sign guys to put around him.  If I were Terry and Beane, I might sit down with Josh and his agent, and offer something like a 15 year contract at 20 million per, with a guaranteed personal services contract with he team for 20 years after that at a few million a year.   

I would love to see that, but Brady also is married to one of the richest women in the world and he had already been winning super bowls, for Brady it was take less money for more super bowls and more glory. Josh has his entire career, and you see what happens to guys like Alex Smith and teddy Bridgewater it makes QBs take care of themselves. But the good news is I truly belive josh wants to stay in Buffalo and will probably take a great contract instead of test the market for a crazy high contract from a terrible team.

[Billl]

They’re going to extend him this off-season while using the 5th year option as a starting point.  I see him getting a contract with an AAV somewhere between Mahomes and Watson.  Something like 7 years and $300,000,000-$315,000,000 seems about right.

Edited December 20, 2020 by Billl

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Billl said:

They’re going to extend him this off-season while using the 5th year option as a starting point.  I see him getting a contract with an AAV somewhere between Mahomes and Watson.  Something like 7 years and $300,000,000-$315,000,000 seems about right.

 

That is certainly where the Allen team will want to be. I think the Bills try and get it just below the Watson number by extending over a longer period - similar to Mahomes - and with a significant guaranteed % that escalates as they go. But they are basically the parameters of the negotiation. 

[Maybe Someday]

He will be resigned. Exactly how much depends on how the rest of the season goes. My guess is he ends up in the $40-45M per year just behind Mahomes. But if we win the SB and he wins the MVP he’ll be the highest paid player in the league. 

[billsbackto81]

Whatever Watson got plus a dollar. He's who I compare Josh to at this moment in his career. But unlike the pundits, I think Josh is better.

[HappyDays]

Beane's best trait as a GM is drawing up contracts that don't put the long term salary cap at risk. I have trouble predicting what it will look like but I think it will be very creative. I guessed 7 years because that would put Allen at 31 years old with one more big contract to cash in for his career.

[Billl]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is certainly where the Allen team will want to be. I think the Bills try and get it just below the Watson number by extending over a longer period - similar to Mahomes - and with a significant guaranteed % that escalates as they go. But they are basically the parameters of the negotiation. 

I can see that.  I’ve always been of the opinion that teams with true superstar QBs want to sign them to absurdly rich contracts, the bigger the better.  It sounds counterintuitive, but here’s why.

 

For the sake of this discussion, let’s say Allen is a truly elite guy.  By that, I mean there’s a clear separation between him and a guy like Watson.  You want Allen to set the market with a huge number because the next guy (Mayfield, Jackson, etc.) is going to get 90-95% of that even if they’re only 75% of the player.  Mega contracts don’t crush teams with the truly elite QBs.  They crush teams that have bridesmaids.  $5,000,000 extra to spread around a roster doesn’t bridge the gap between what a Prescott gives you versus what a Rodgers does.  For that reason, you almost can’t pay an elite QB too much.

[MJS]

If he wins the Superbowl this year he'll get 45 million a year.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Billl said:

I can see that.  I’ve always been of the opinion that teams with true superstar QBs want to sign them to absurdly rich contracts, the bigger the better.  It sounds counterintuitive, but here’s why.

 

For the sake of this discussion, let’s say Allen is a truly elite guy.  By that, I mean there’s a clear separation between him and a guy like Watson.  You want Allen to set the market with a huge number because the next guy (Mayfield, Jackson, etc.) is going to get 90-95% of that even if they’re only 75% of the player.  Mega contracts don’t crush teams with the truly elite QBs.  They crush teams that have bridesmaids.  $5,000,000 extra to spread around a roster doesn’t bridge the gap between what a Prescott gives you versus what a Rodgers does.  For that reason, you almost can’t pay an elite QB too much.

 

I see the point. I certainly think that you'd rather pay Josh Allen $45m per than Mayfield or Jackson 95% of that. Just think that is a secondary consideration for a man like Beane who is trying to build the best roster he can.

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

So I'm going to break this question down..

 

First.. this topic has been talked about for a long time.. Pick up 5th year or pay the man... You do not want to set a precedence by forcing high caliber players to wait a year on a big contract. The last thing I wanted Josh to do is chuck it down the field 50 yards and catch the ball on stride.. Check...That side line pass to Diggs was stupid good..

 

Contract Length. The shorter the length the more chance that opens things up on Josh leaving us after that year. if for some reason things go bad. 6-7 years makes sense. 

 

How much? The longer you wait the more your going to pay him. He proves he wan win a playoff game... bam add a few more mil a year.. He proves he can get us to the AFC Champ Game.. Boom a few more mill.. He gets you to a super bowl.. few more mill.. He WINS? 10 mil more.

 

His contract numbers will be based on how he evolves in the playoffs this year..

 

If he does not win a Playoff game? 30-34 Mil.  Wins one game. 33-35 Mil. Gets us to the afc champ game? 38 mil.

 

Gets to a super bowl .. 40+.. Wins a super bowl? 45+

 

its to early to gauge 

 

He also chucked it downfield to Diggs on the play they got them to jump Offside and was a perfect throw in the bucket but Diggs barely missed getting his 2nd foot in bounds. Would have gone for 40+

[SF Bills Fan]

I’d say 5 years at 30 million a year with a guarantee of 75 million and incentives to take it to 200 million. It’s crazy to think but that’s what the market allows for.
 

Also- I don’t think he really cares too much about the money. He is like Brady- he wants wins and Super Bowls. Money just is something that comes with it. His agent probably cares more about the money 

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I think that Beane and company already have a number in mind. Winning a Super Bowl this year probably wouldn’t create a 10-15 million dollar swing per year for the next seven years vs if they lose round 1. 
 

Your logic seems to make sense if they were playing him for just this season but when you look at it long term, I doubt the front office is going to let this one season’s post season performance drastically change what they believe he is worth (barring some crazy circumstances) 

 

IMO.

Salaries are based on what are you doing now.  basically.. in this case they look at the best year they had and the whole picture

Edited

 

Salaries are based on.. Average per yea  Growth per year and potential.  In short.. what Josh does in the playoffs does matter. and not just the superbowl.

Edited December 20, 2020 by PrimeTime101

[starrymessenger]

Cha-chinggggggg

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

I can see that.  I’ve always been of the opinion that teams with true superstar QBs want to sign them to absurdly rich contracts, the bigger the better.  It sounds counterintuitive, but here’s why.

 

For the sake of this discussion, let’s say Allen is a truly elite guy.  By that, I mean there’s a clear separation between him and a guy like Watson.  You want Allen to set the market with a huge number because the next guy (Mayfield, Jackson, etc.) is going to get 90-95% of that even if they’re only 75% of the player.  Mega contracts don’t crush teams with the truly elite QBs.  They crush teams that have bridesmaids.  $5,000,000 extra to spread around a roster doesn’t bridge the gap between what a Prescott gives you versus what a Rodgers does.  For that reason, you almost can’t pay an elite QB too much.

I completely disagree. Mega contracts are just easy to fingerpoint at.

 

The $6M difference between Mahomes' and Watson's contracts is not going to be the difference between the success of those two teams. The difference will be drafting well, finding and keeping key FA's, and overall success at team-building.