Dont Stop Billeiving Posted December 17, 2020 Posted December 17, 2020 Another week and another primetime win for these surging Buffalo Bills. The offense started slow and the Steelers were getting so much pressure (Cam Heyward is an absolute monster), but unlike past years, I was able to keep genuinely believing in the QB/offense and that we're never out of any game. Taron Johnson continued his strong form over the past few games and came up with the biggest play of his young career and Josh and Stef took it from there. We exorcised the third quarter demons and out-executed Pittsburgh in all three phases in the second half. Our Bills are 10-3 and one win away from clinching the AFC East for the first time since I was 6 (madness)! Looking ahead, we're back on the road and up into that thin mountain air against the 5-8 Denver Broncos who are coming off their most complete win against the Carolina Panthers. Same as the previous weeks, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the Broncos' last three games (***not counting the debacle against New Orleans where they didn't have an actual QB as there wouldn't be much value in comparing that performance to any future game***) based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful: ***Offensive and Defensive Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics*** https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings November 22nd- Week 11 Win at Home vs Miami (the Dolphins had the 20th ranked offense, 15th ranked defense, and 1st ranked special teams after Week 11, current record: 8-5) by a score of 20-13: Drew Lock- 18/30 for 270 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT. Picked off by Xavien Howard on one of his first throws, trying to complete a 15 yard crossing route over the middle to Tim Patrick. Rebounded well a couple drives later with a couple accurate intermediate throws and used his mobility to pick up a 3rd-and-13 with his legs, leading to a short Gordon TD run. Lock's best throws of the game came in the 2nd quarter over the middle to Patrick (over the LBs/in front of the safeties, hitting Patrick in stride allowing him to get 15+ YAC) and on an out route to Jeudy on the left sideline. Lock definitely uses his good arm strength and seems to read the field deep-to-short in the way that 2018 Josh Allen did with the inevitable boom-or-bust results. Lock was not sacked in this game. Broncos Running Game- Melvin Gordon (84 yards, 5.6 YPC, and 2 TDs) surprised me in a good way for most of this game. I had thought he had looked pretty average in his last year with the Chargers (somewhat explained by his extended holdout and lack of fitness), but he looks to have regained some of his former speed and shiftiness (for example his 17 yard TD run in the 3rd quarter which provided the winning points). He was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 play on a run up the middle, but I'd place the blame more on Denver's interior line. Lindsay provided his usual change of pace (82 yards and 5.1 YPC). Gordon lost a late fumble literally a step from the end zone, spoiling a chance to put the game away. Both backs had success running outside (particularly off the right side which is strange given that it's the weaker side of the Broncos' O-line). This isn't an overly huge or powerful offensive line, but rather a quick and mobile one. The Broncos use a lot of pulling guards and tackles in their run game and it was effective against Miami. Jerry Jeudy (3 catches for 37 yards) and KJ Hamler (4 catches for 35 yards)- The young athletic additions to this offense. Jeudy's route running and Hamler's speed are already elite at the pro level, but both WRs have struggled with drops and consistency. Tim Patrick- 5 catches for 119 yards. His stats were somewhat inflated by a running-out-the-clock Hail Mary-type play where Xavien Howard blew the coverage, but he's the steady veteran of Denver's young offense and unlike some of the other WRs who have struggled with drops, Patrick shows good hands and reliable route running. Noah Fant- 4 catches for 55 yards, made a couple splash plays with his speed. Broncos Run Defense- Impressive performance, holding Salvon Ahmed (I know you're thinking who?...but he actually looks like he could be a decent 3rd down back for them) and Matt Brieda to a combined 47 yards on 14 carries. The defensive line led by Shelby Harris did a good job winning the LoS and Alexander Johnson/Josey Jewell are intelligent backers in Fangio's scheme. Broncos Pass Defense- Denver did a nice job of limiting Tua early (11/20 for 83 yards, 1 TD) and then coaxing Fitzpatrick into one of his patented back-breaking INTs to end the game (Justin Simmons baited Fitz into the throw and is probably a top 5 safety in the league who isn't talked about enough). Off the early Xavien Howard INT, AJ Bouye got beat for a TD by Devante Parker on a nice fade catch and throw. The Broncos sacked Tua SIX times (the better ones were Malik Reed off the left side, Deshawn Williams roasting the Miami LG with an excellent swim move, and Bradley 'I was Drafted Over Josh Allen' Chubb with a good stunt the Dolphins failed to pick up). Miscellaneous- Denver's special teams put in a strong performance in this game. Brandon McManus and Sam Martin are a proven Kicker/Punter combo and Diontae Spencer is one of the best returners in the NFL. Denver doubled up Miami in yards and the Dolphins only averaged 3.7 yards per play. The Broncos committed 7 penalties for 80 yards. December 7th- Week 13 Loss Away to Kansas City (the Chiefs had the 1st ranked offense, 18th ranked defense, and 20th ranked special teams after Week 13, current record: 12-1) by a score of 22-16: Drew Lock- 15/28 for 151 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. Again came out looking for the deep ball and hit Fant for a nice gain on the left sideline. However, on the next play, Lock tried throwing over the middle and across his body and was predictably picked off by the Honey Badger. Showed some touch on a short pass to Patrick for the first TD and then placed the ball perfectly in the corner for Patrick on the second score. Threw his second INT also to Mathieu down by 6 with under a minute to play. Lock can zero in on his intended target too much at times and seems to be a one step forward, one step backward kind of player at this point in his career. Lock was not sacked for the second week in a row. Broncos Running Game- Melvin Gordon (131 yards and 8.7 YPC) had another sharp game highlighted by a nearly untouched 60 yard run through a big hole opened up by the line. Lindsay struggled on the other hand and was held to a mere 26 yards on 14 carries. Jerry Jeudy (1 catch for 5 yards) and KJ Hamler (2 catches for 16 yards)- Jeudy was invisible, but Hamler forced a few missed tackles after his limited targets and executed a successful reverse play as well. Tim Patrick- 4 catches for 44 yards and 2 TDs. Made an outstanding play with an over-the-shoulder catch and somehow getting both feet inbounds for the second TD. Noah Fant- I noticed a tendency for Denver to run jet motion one way usually with Hamler and then throw to Fant (4 catches for 57 yards) who is crossing the field in the opposite direction, something to watch out for. Broncos Run Defense- Another solid performance, holding the KC RBs to a combined 78 yards on 17 carries. Got burned on a reverse to Hill for 30+ yards and lost contain on Mahomes allowing him to pick up first downs more than once. However, Denver is the number one red zone defense in the NFL and they proved it again, forcing KC to kick FGs once they were in the red zone on all but one of their opportunities. Broncos Pass Defense- Denver did a nice job of bending but not breaking and Mahomes had a relatively reserved game by his elite standards (25/40 for 318 yards and 1 TD). Denver lost Tyreek Hill a few times, but Bouye did an excellent job recovering and breaking up a potential 40 yard TD pass to Hill to force a KC punt. Denver also struggled to contain Kelce (136 yards and 1 TD) as most defenses do. The Broncos struggled to get pressure on Mahomes, but Jeremiah Attaochu made a fantastic play to notch Denver's lone sack on 3rd-and-goal. Miscellaneous- Hill caught a deep TD pass in the 4th quarter that was cancelled out by a holding penalty. McManus hit a FG of over 50 yards for the second consecutive week. The Broncos committed 4 penalties for 31 yards. December 13th - Week 14 Win Away to Carolina (the Panthers had the 9th ranked offense, 27th ranked defense, and the 21st ranked special teams after Week 14, current record: 4-9) by a score of 32-27: Drew Lock- 21/27 for 280 yards, 4 TDs, and 0 INTs. Probably the best game of Lock's young career. Similar to previous weeks, the Denver offense started a bit slow and Lock was strip-sacked by Jeremy Chinn on an 'A Gap' blitz that was set up a Carolina score. Lock started to heat up in the second half though, hitting Hamler who had badly beaten his man in stride for 37 and 49 yard TD strikes. Lock was sacked just once (the only sack he took in these three games which is impressive). Broncos Running Game- Melvin Gordon (68 yards and 5.2 YPC) broke a few runs off-tackle and was active in the screen game. Lindsay struggled again and just doesn't look like himself (held to a mere 24 yards on 11 carries). I believe he's carrying an injury and I think Denver is using Lindsay and his skill set poorly, running him inside while Gordon is getting all the screens and pitch plays. Both backs got stuffed in a couple short yardage situations and Denver's interior O-line (especially Cushenberry at Center) appeared to struggle. Jerry Jeudy (2 catches for 42 yards) and KJ Hamler (2 catches for 86 yards and 2 TDs)- Jeudy showed excellent effort to chase down the Carolina defender after the strip-sack and tackle him at the three yard line. Jeudy showed off his polished route running on the next drive, losing his defender and hauling in a 25+ reception to set up Denver's first offensive TD. Carolina dared to use single coverage on Hamler from what I could see and while they held him to 2 catches, he made them pay. Tim Patrick- 36 yards and 1 TD down close to the goal line (similar play to his score vs Miami where he motioned left before the snap and beat him man to the edge). Lock spread the ball around a bit more in this match up. Broncos TEs- Fant missed this game (along with LT Garrett Bolles) with an illness, but Nick Vannett (20 yards and 1 TD) and Troy Fumagalli (53 yards) both stepped up in his absence. Broncos Run Defense- Their least impressive performance of these three games, giving up three rushing TDs led by Mike Davis (51 yards, 4.6 YPC, and 2 TDs). Got burned on multiple reverses/jet sweeps for the 2nd week running by Robbie Anderson/Curtis Samuel and didn't commit to their gaps a number of times, allowing Bridgewater to run up the middle for 31 yards and 1 TD. The Broncos look very susceptible to misdirection and mobile QBs. Broncos Pass Defense- Denver's secondary started to show signs of cracking in this game given their injuries and Bridgewater was fairly successful throwing the ball (30/40 for 283 yards and 0 TDs/0 INTs). Robby Anderson got loose for 8 receptions and 84 yards and there are plays for Mckenzie to make on Saturday based on the space Samuel was able to find. However, the Broncos were able to pressure Bridgewater at key moments and got four sacks (of note, Attaochu lost his blocker on a stunt inside, Will Parks got Bridgewater for an 18 yard loss on a nice corner blitz, and Dre-Mont Jones got a huge sack on Carolina's final drive). Miscellaneous- Diontae Spencer took the Panthers' first punt back 83 yards for a TD, he looks very fast and showed incredible acceleration after running into his own guy at the start. McManus had an off game and missed 2 XPs (he now has three missed XPs on the season after never having missed more than one in any previous year). With the ball and three minutes to play, Denver's offense could have put the game away, but went 3-and-out and were fortunate to avoid a safety/defensive TD on a batted pass. Not the first time Denver has nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. The Broncos committed only 2 penalties for 18 yards. December 19th - Week 15 Denver Broncos (current record: 5-8, 31st ranked offense, 13th ranked defense, and 18th ranked special teams after Week 14) at Home vs The Buffalo Bills (current record: 10-3, 7th ranked offense, 16th ranked defense, and 5th ranked special teams after Week 14) Bills On Offense- Denver was one of the top run defenses at the beginning of the season, but have lost two-thirds of their starting D-line in Jurrell Casey and Mike Purcell and have been more vulnerable to outside runs and running QBs since. Shelby Harris is an underrated player and will make his share of plays inside, but between the losses on the D-line and the lack of athleticism at the LB position, Motor and Moss should be able to find some space. However, the Bills' largest advantage should be through the air as Denver has been terribly unlucky with injuries at the cornerback position (and the suspension to Bouye). Now to be fair, Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson form one of the top safety tandems in the NFL (I'd still rather have Hyde and Poyer) and they do a great job of tackling and disguising coverages, but I don't see how they can realistically make up for the replacement-level or below CB group the Broncos will field on Saturday. Diggs and Beasley should feast and the Bills were smart to rest John Brown as they should have enough weapons available without him. Denver has some good edge rushers in Chubb and Attaochu, but the Bills should be able to handle them, having faced better versions of those guys last week. Bills On Defense- Drew Lock is a young player who has some potential and is coming off his best game as a pro, but his game still has a lot of flaws as well. He is beyond terrible under pressure and leads the league in bad throw %. This offense really misses Courtland Sutton as their top aerial threat, but Tim Patrick has stepped up and is an underrated player who has the steadiest pair of hands among the group and keeps the offense in rhythm. Jeudy and Hamler are very exciting rookies with impressive traits, but have yet to become consistent pros and have struggled with drops. Fant is a difference maker at the TE position, but I don't think they throw to him enough. Still, Milano will have his hands full. Gordon and Lindsay represent a great RB duo on paper and while Gordon has looked the ticket, Lindsay is playing hurt and hasn't been his usual effective self (which is handy for the Bills as I think he's the player that could best exploit our weaknesses). After a tough stretch of facing many of the league's top offenses, the defense should be able to take care of business here and confuse Lock into some mistakes. The defensive rotations will be especially key on Saturday given the altitude/fatigue. On Special Teams- Spencer is a real weapon in the kick and punt return game and is more than capable of taking any touch to the house as he did vs Carolina. McManus has been uncharacteristically hot and cold this season and is currently on the COVID list, but expects to play on Saturday. The DVOA ratings show that the Bills should have the advantage on special teams and I'm hoping to see Andre Roberts finally make his own house call after almost breaking a few recently. Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. Denver has some exciting young talent on both sides of the ball and Lock has shown some positive signs recently, but the Bills are a couple years further ahead in their rebuild with a now-proven franchise QB and I think Buffalo has the advantage in all three phases. The Bills are also relatively healthy and may get John Brown back while the Broncos have lost five of their top six CBs. Altitude is a definite X-factor, but I'm expecting to see the Bills defeat a young but ultimately less talented opponent and finally take back the AFC East! All the best, stay healthy, and Go Bills! 8 2 12
r00tabaga Posted December 17, 2020 Posted December 17, 2020 Thank you for posting this. I think we match up good with them 1
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted December 17, 2020 Posted December 17, 2020 I think if we get an early lead it'll be game over. Our secondary is trending way up and Lock is among the more mistake prone QBs. 3
TailgateChef Posted December 17, 2020 Posted December 17, 2020 Great write up. Must have taken a while. Thanks. 1 1
BillsfaninSB Posted December 18, 2020 Posted December 18, 2020 Great write-up. So nice to see how meaningful these games are for the Bills now. Prior years it would have been “why bother”. Good times at the moment. 1
Haslett_Stomp Posted December 18, 2020 Posted December 18, 2020 Great analysis, thanks for taking the time to put this together! If one sentence grabbed my attention it was this: "The Broncos look very susceptible to misdirection and mobile QBs." It will be interesting to see how Dabol and Allen attack the Broncos defense. 1
Rocky Landing Posted December 18, 2020 Posted December 18, 2020 Nice work as always, DSB! Drew Lock's potential is a much debated subject among Bronco fans. His supporters like to compare him to Josh Allen (which is malarkey, of course). Others are more than willing to call him a bust. Others believe he is at his ceiling, and likely not more than a serviceable backup. My horrible take is that Denver's crappy record notwithstanding, they are actually a tougher matchup against us than we are willing to admit. I am confident that McD, and the team are going to take this game very seriously, as a win cements our division title. And, I am confident we are going to win this game. But... Their defense, while depleted, is well coached, and has one of the best records in the red zone in the league. If they can get enough pressure on Josh to force him into quick throws, the yards will get tougher, and tougher the closer we get to the end zone. This would be a good week to get some longer pass plays to their corners. If I were to make an ugly prediction, I could see us getting to within five yards of the goal line, gong for it on fourth down, and leaving points on the field. Defensively, I would like to see us go more 4-3, than nickel, especially if Taron is out (although, I have a lot of faith in Siran). I could see the Broncos wanting to run the sort of running plays the Rams did earlier in the season, pulling Oliver to the left and opening a gap. Milano/Edmunds/Klein would close that right up. And that's about as pessimistic as I can be about this game. I'm expecting Motor, and Moss to gain a lot of yards, especially early in drives. I'm expecting some long throws to Diggs, Beasley, and Davis. I'm expecting Knox to have at least two impressive YAC gains, and I'm expecting a decisive win. 1 1
Dont Stop Billeiving Posted December 18, 2020 Author Posted December 18, 2020 10 hours ago, Rocky Landing said: Nice work as always, DSB! Drew Lock's potential is a much debated subject among Bronco fans. His supporters like to compare him to Josh Allen (which is malarkey, of course). Others are more than willing to call him a bust. Others believe he is at his ceiling, and likely not more than a serviceable backup. My horrible take is that Denver's crappy record notwithstanding, they are actually a tougher matchup against us than we are willing to admit. I am confident that McD, and the team are going to take this game very seriously, as a win cements our division title. And, I am confident we are going to win this game. But... Their defense, while depleted, is well coached, and has one of the best records in the red zone in the league. If they can get enough pressure on Josh to force him into quick throws, the yards will get tougher, and tougher the closer we get to the end zone. This would be a good week to get some longer pass plays to their corners. If I were to make an ugly prediction, I could see us getting to within five yards of the goal line, gong for it on fourth down, and leaving points on the field. Defensively, I would like to see us go more 4-3, than nickel, especially if Taron is out (although, I have a lot of faith in Siran). I could see the Broncos wanting to run the sort of running plays the Rams did earlier in the season, pulling Oliver to the left and opening a gap. Milano/Edmunds/Klein would close that right up. And that's about as pessimistic as I can be about this game. I'm expecting Motor, and Moss to gain a lot of yards, especially early in drives. I'm expecting some long throws to Diggs, Beasley, and Davis. I'm expecting Knox to have at least two impressive YAC gains, and I'm expecting a decisive win. Thanks buddy! Yeah 100%, all fair points. I probably didn't expand enough on how good Fangio is as a defensive mind in this league (as a head coach, not so much IMO). But they are the number one red zone defense for a reason and as you said, getting 6 points instead of 3 in those opportunities will be critical. If the Broncos defense was fully healthy with Casey, Purcell, Miller, Bouye, Callahan etc., I'd be a lot more concerned with the match up, but I'm optimistic that Allen and our WRs are a downright terrible match up for their CB room at the moment. Hopefully that will negate some of Fangio's red zone prowess and allow us score enough points to put this game out of reach. Go Bills! 2
Wizard Posted December 18, 2020 Posted December 18, 2020 I live in the Denver area. Local sports show radio hosts and sportswriters have all indicated that Denver only has a punchers chance. Most pick the Bills winning by 10-14 with the Broncos maybe scoring late to make game appear closer. Fans I interact with say Lock has starter potential. He has only played 16-17 games in his career thus far, but his potential is limited because of a poor offensive line, changing systems, and a lack of reading the field well. A few friends said he is young and has a quality arm, but they would be happy with a young Alex Smith or Tannenhill as far as Lock's ceiling. The only guy local sports people say may give a little trouble to the Bill's is Noah Fant (TE) because of his height, speed, and open field ability. 2 1
RyanC883 Posted December 18, 2020 Posted December 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Wizard said: I live in the Denver area. Local sports show radio hosts and sportswriters have all indicated that Denver only has a punchers chance. Most pick the Bills winning by 10-14 with the Broncos maybe scoring late to make game appear closer. Fans I interact with say Lock has starter potential. He has only played 16-17 games in his career thus far, but his potential is limited because of a poor offensive line, changing systems, and a lack of reading the field well. A few friends said he is young and has a quality arm, but they would be happy with a young Alex Smith or Tannenhill as far as Lock's ceiling. The only guy local sports people say may give a little trouble to the Bill's is Noah Fant (TE) because of his height, speed, and open field ability. thanks for the in-area scouting. It does seem to mesh with what we would observe from a distance. The Fant-Milano or whoever matchup will be interesting. It's also a good test game for the Bills if they eventually face Kelse again in the playoffs. I also think Lock has starter potential. He reminds me a bit of Josh in year one (although Lock has MUCH better WRs than Josh had then). The OL and field reading are improved, I think Lock has the tools to be a solid-good starter. 1
Shaw66 Posted December 18, 2020 Posted December 18, 2020 22 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said: I think if we get an early lead it'll be game over. Our secondary is trending way up and Lock is among the more mistake prone QBs. Yeah, I expect that McDermott and Frazier will have Lock confused, and he will make some mistakes. There no easy outs in the NFL. Well, a couple, but Denver, New England, and Miami are not among them. 1
Rocky Landing Posted December 19, 2020 Posted December 19, 2020 2 hours ago, Shaw66 said: Yeah, I expect that McDermott and Frazier will have Lock confused, and he will make some mistakes. There no easy outs in the NFL. Well, a couple, but Denver, New England, and Miami are not among them. There is no game in this regular season that I want to win more than week 16 in Foxboro.
AmishRifle Posted December 19, 2020 Posted December 19, 2020 @Dont Stop Billeiving I enjoy reading these. Thank you for taking the time to watch the film, capture the details, and post to the board. 1 1
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