Will other teams make draft mistakes because of Josh?

[msw2112]

41 minutes ago, dpberr said:

Josh Allen had high marks for being a coachable person. Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold did not. Rosen had a lousy attitude and a lot of quit. Darnold is still the same QB he was at USC. Absolutely no evolution.

 

Coachability is a wonderful skill set to have as a person. 

 

As you explore the greats and busts at that position you'll often find that as one of the common denominators. 

 

 

 

 

Yes, but...I believe EJ Manuel, JP Losman and Trent Edwards were all coachable.  Despite different personalities, all three (I believe) were hard-working kids that wanted to improve.  They all lacked some of the key traits required to be a consistent, successful starting NFL QB, or had some kind of experience that threw off their development and they never recovered.  (Edwards had the concussion in the AZ game, EJ had Kevin Kolb slipping on a rubber mat in training camp forcing him to be a starter before he was ready, and Losman had the drafting/competition with Edwards - Losman had a full semi-successful year as a starter after his broken leg, so I don't count that).

 

I don't think any of these 3 had close to the package of skills that Allen has, which will make him one of the best in the business, but if one or all of them had come along during the McDermott/Daboll Bills of the last 3 years, do you think any of them might have become a serviceable NFL starter?

Edited December 17, 2020 by msw2112

[aristocrat]

15 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

I don't think Josh Allen "fell".  He played at Wyoming in the Mountain West.  The conference is marginal after Boise State.  Being the 7th pick in the draft coming out of a program like Wyoming against the competition he was playing against is a tremendous achievement.  

that’s why I said a team was trying to get him fall.  He was taken high. 

[BillsPride12]

12 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

 

Yes, but...I believe EJ Manuel, JP Losman and Trent Edwards were all coachable.  Despite different personalities, all three (I believe) were hard-working kids that wanted to improve.  They all lacked some of the key traits required to be a consistent, successful starting NFL QB, or had some kind of experience that threw off their development and they never recovered.  (Edwards had the concussion in the AZ game, EJ had Kevin Kolb slipping on a rubber mat in training camp forcing him to be a starter before he was ready, and Losman had the drafting/competition with Edwards - Losman had a full semi-successful year as a starter after his broken leg, so I don't count that).

 

I don't think any of these 3 had close to the package of skills that Allen has, which will make him one of the best in the business, but if one or all of them had come along during the McDermott/Daboll Bills of the last 3 years, do you think any of them might have become a serviceable NFL starter?

While I can't speak on the other two it is now well known that Losman never put in the effort it took to be successful in the NFL.  When he was drafted he came in with the rep that he was supposed to be a Jim Kelly, Brett Favre passionate love for the game kind've guy but he actually treated football like it was just a job to him.  I just don't think Manuel or Edwards ever had the raw talent to succeed in the NFL.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

Absolutely. Josh is a unicorn. There's never going to be another one like him. People trying to replicate it are going to get burned time and time again.

 

Allen barely even played in college and never received adequate coaching until the pros. It was a tremendous risk to take him and believe you could develop him AND that he would be so hard working and humble enough to allow it.

 

Just not going to happen again. Most guys who make it to the pros have a lot of college experience with big programs. Just don't see another QB the caliber of Allen getting to the NFL so, so raw like he was.

Say what??? He started 25 games in college.  Most QB prospects only play two years of college.  Joe Burrow 28 starts. Kyle Murray 14 starts.

[Bob in STL]

3 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Just to be clear the same organization drafted and same coaching staff started Nathan Peterman

 

No one wants to admit it, but there is a fair amount of luck in this process.  I had Allen #1 but would have been happy with Rosen.  Many on here hated the Allen pick and wanted Rosen or others.  I do agree that coaching and culture play a crucial role.  But no culture or coaching is going to make a weak arm work.

 

 

 

You do realize that you are comparing pick #7 with pick #171?  I’m pretty sure the Bills knew Peterman was not a franchise QB when they picked him in the 5th round.  
 

You should also note that Peterman was picked by McDermott/Whaley.  Allen by Beane.  

Edited December 17, 2020 by Bob in STL

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Mistakes are made year after year. 
 

Josh will have nothing to do with it 

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

If any of the other 31 teams try to draft Josh they will be politely but firmly reminded that he's under contract with the Bills.

[Don Otreply]

We can only hope so 😁👍

 

Go Bills!!!

[batmanfreek]

If anything it may have teams wait longer to see if a qb develops. 

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, Doc said:

You mean like the Packers with Love...

 

 

If the Packers replaced Rodgers at halftime in Week 1 with Love, this comment would almost approach relevance and cogency.

[LabattBlue]

I’m getting old...at least two people in this thread have called Allen a “unicorn” and I have no freaking idea what they are talking about.  😂

[Doc]

13 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

If the Packers replaced Rodgers at halftime in Week 1 with Love, this comment would almost approach relevance and cogency.

 

Obviously you didn't understand the topic.

[klos63]

3 hours ago, BisonMan said:

We've heard it over and over again. Josh Allen's growth from year 2 to year 3 is unprecedented. Nonetheless, it's likely that teams will look to repeat the Bills' formula by picking a QB with the dreaded "potential" without seeming to understand the internal and environmental factors that allowed Allen to thrive. 

 

Internal

Aside from his physical skills, Allen has two traits that have allowed him to have this massive improvement. First, Allen has a massive chip on his shoulders after being turned down by every college program when he came out of high school and got only one offer after his stint in JUCO. People think Tom Brady has a chip because he was drafted so late coming out of Michigan? Josh has been carrying this chip on his shoulder since high school. Second, Allen is a lot more studious a QB than people have given him credit for. His smarts have allowed him the ability learn more quickly than a lot of other players who never seem to "get it". Even this year, Allen has adjusted to changing defensive strategies to win games down the stretch. His drive has also allowed him to work more on his "craft" to become a better thrower of the ball. 

 

Environmental

The Bills obviously have a very strong coaching staff and culture. That allows players the support they need to mature and learn. The team also has put in the pieces around him to allow him to succeed and grow with what his potential allows. He's often compared to Roethlisberger, but Pittsburgh surrounded Ben with a strong running game to protect his lack of skills early in his career. The Bills created an environment to stretch Allen's skills. 

 

I can see other teams with a weaker culture and less stable management reaching for QBs with "potential" in the coming years to find a Josh Allen but his background, internal drive and skillset are very hard to replicate. Add to that, the difficulty of creating the right team around him makes what the Bills have done, very unique in my memory. I don't really see a ceiling for Allen at this point. He could easily get even better with more experience. 

 

Other teams should be very wary of trying to replicate what has happened in Buffalo. I see a lot of mistakes being made in the coming years with teams chasing the next Josh Allen.

Ben's lack of skills? He was a first round pick that had an excellent rookie season.

[bigK14094]

3 hours ago, msw2112 said:

I always wondered about JP Losman.  He was talented guy - mobile, cannon arm, etc. and seemed to have a strong work ethic (despite a prior reputation for being a bit brash and cocky).  He had one decent season and then it all fell apart.  If he had been in the right system with the right coaching and development, would he have made it?  Note that by the time he got to other teams later in his career (Raiders, Dolphins), he was already "broken" and was beyond recovery.  I suppose you could say the same thing for EJ Manuel, although his accuracy was almost beyond horrible.  A guy like Tannehill is a good example of a guy who flashed talent but didn't really shine until he was in the right situation.  Fortunately for him, he got to Tennessee and got fixed before he was beyond repair.

 

Some guys have the physical ability (arm and/or mobility) AND the mental ability (to quickly process information/read a defense/sense pressure, etc.) and some only have one or the other.  Guys that only have the physical ability, but not the mental ability, usually get 2-4 shots with various teams that think they can fix the guy before they eventually flame out.  A third factor is work ethic/attitude.  Some talented guys who lacked this fell far short of their potential - Jeff George, Jay Cutler and Josh Rosen.  Guys who lack the physical ability, but have the mental ability and work ethic/attitude can have long careers in the league as backups (and occasional starters).  Fitz is one of those guys for sure.  Maybe Josh McCown is another.  Todd Collins?  

 

Allen clearly has all three and in spades, PLUS the Bills have developed him properly in the right environment for success.  It's great to see happening this in a Buffalo franchise!

 

I realize that my post has wandered into a few different directions and away from the original topic, but these are the things that have come to mind (and I'm procrastinating some work that needs to get done).  Thanks for indulging me.

LOsman didn't have the head to be a NFL QB.  Physical talent, yes. EJ never had the head either.....

Edited December 17, 2020 by bigK14094

[TroutDog]

Picking/hiring people is a complex issue. There are myriad variables. The leadership team in place at OBD, it appears, recognizes that and did what they needed to do: fix culture first. That includes unloading malcontents, bloated contracts, etc. This could be a different thread unto itself. 

 

Next is figuring out the mentality of the ‘right’ fit. I have no idea which ‘tools’ they use (Meyers-Briggs, DISC, ISPI, etc.) but, whatever it was, they understood who Josh was/is. 
 

Another component is physical: that was a given.

 

Lastly is patience. This may be the most difficult, to be honest. Very few enter the league as who they will become. Once you lay your claim on someone as a draft pick, you really need to see it out and trust your coaches.  
 

Given all of this, I suspect there will be countless other teams trying to replicate Josh but very few will due to them not grasping one of the components. Those will be, in order, culture, coaching and then patience. 

[Doc Brown]

Yeah

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I think the chip on the shoulder thing is over rated as so many players in all sports can say the same thing.  Brady wasn't all that heavily recruited and Rodgers went the same route as Allen, JUCO as only Illinois recruited him as a walk on.  Everyone has some kind of chip for one reason or another.

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

I think the chip on the shoulder thing is over rated as so many players in all sports can say the same thing.  Brady wasn't all that heavily recruited and Rodgers went the same route as Allen, JUCO as only Illinois recruited him as a walk on.  Everyone has some kind of chip for one reason or another.

 

Not true. 

[Beast]

There are busts all throughout the 1st round every year. At every position. For all kinds of reasons.

 

Why should anyone expect that the high rate of busts won't continue at the hardest position to play in pro sports? Allen or no Allen.

[YoloinOhio]

Well maybe. Depends on how good the scouting is. If they find a raw project who possesses the exceptional  physical traits, Intelligence (both can be measured) while also nailing the intrinsic motivation and work ethic necessary to keep improving they may be able to replicate. The last part is the most difficult to confirm and project out. Because Allen was not a highly recruited prospect he had to work for everything every step of the way. It was what he was used to doing, it was a way of life. That’s just not typically the case for guys who end up drafted in the top 10. They are usually guys who competed at elite 11 camps from HS and were 4 and 5 star prospects at big time programs, lauded and celebrated every step of the way. The main reason that Allen has improved in a way no one really predicted was his own commitment in the offseason to put in the work and make changes necessary to succeed as an nfl Qb. You have to always be a step ahead of the film you have out there as a nfl Qb.